Sox likely to be quiet in free agency after Abreu

[Chicago White Sox]

Yeah, I don't see them trading a 22-year-old 3B who put up a 2.7 WAR his rookie season for a 26 year old pitcher who may put up a sub-2 WAR next season if he improves.

 

Not that they may not be interested in Santiago, but it would take Santiago + to get that done.

How would Santiago put up a sub 2 WAR if he actually improved next year? He was basically a starter for only 2/3 of the year and still finished with a 1.5 WAR. Give him 11 more starts next year instead of a bunch of relief appearances and he should easily get that extra 0.5 WAR if gets even a slight bit better.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Chicago White Sox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I would actually be completely content with this team not spending anything else on Free Agency this winter. We probably won't compete in 2014 unless we sign/trade for at least 2 or 3 more major pieces. I would like to see some trades however.

 

Move Alexei, De Aza, Beckham, and a pitcher somewhere for some nearly ML ready prospects and then gear up for a strong run in 2015.

Remember free agents don't necessarily have to be big ticket free agents. Guys like Brayan Pena and Dionner Navarro can be good short term gets since both are switch hitters coming off good years in limited roles at catcher instead of McCann or Saltalamacchia.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

How would Santiago put up a sub 2 WAR if he actually improved next year? He was basically a starter for only 2/3 of the year and still finished with a 1.5 WAR. Give him 11 more starts next year instead of a bunch of relief appearances and he should easily get that extra 0.5 WAR if gets even a slight bit better.

 

140 innings this season. Assume next year he can do 180 innings, that should put him around a 1.9 WAR. So I guess MAYBE a 2.5 WAR if he improves some next year, that's still less than Arenado already put up last year at age 22.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Remember free agents don't necessarily have to be big ticket free agents. Guys like Brayan Pena and Dionner Navarro can be good short term gets since both are switch hitters coming off good years in limited roles at catcher instead of McCann or Saltalamacchia.

 

I figured it was implied that if they were quiet it just meant they didn't go after any big name FAs, not to mean that wouldn't make any signings at all. I HOPE they make a few buy-low signings on 1-2 year deals to use as trade fodder if they can have a good half a season next year, but I am not hoping or expecting for any major splashes, unless Hahn can string together a few of them.

[greg775]

I can understand why Sox aren't going to get Ellsbury and McCann if those 2 get ridiculous contracts, which they probably will.

 

But I hope the trades and moves they make are for this upcoming season and not just for prospects. Our division is pretty horses*** (I'm not a believer in Cleveland and KC) and it's hard to fathom that we can't compete with Detroit. I know we currently can't beat anybody in our division, but we need to revamp the lineup so we can start to win divisional games again.

 

I love the Grobber and he said last night on his show the Sox pitching is good enough to win with. He said, 'they just have to take care of that lineup, change that lineup.' I agree. Writing off next season is stupid. Make some trades, sign AJP as stopgap catcher on the cheap.

Edited November 1, 2013 by greg775

[2nd_city_saint787]

I can understand why Sox aren't going to get Ellsbury and McCann if those 2 get ridiculous contracts, which they probably will.

 

But I hope the trades and moves they make are for this upcoming season and not just for prospects. Our division is pretty horses*** (I'm not a believer in Cleveland and KC) and it's hard to fathom that we can't compete with Detroit. I know we currently can't beat anybody in our division, but we need to revamp the lineup so we can start to win divisional games again.

 

I love the Grobber and he said last night on his show the Sox pitching is good enough to win with. He said, 'they just have to take care of that lineup, change that lineup.' I agree. Writing off next season is stupid. Make some trades, sign AJP as stopgap catcher on the cheap.

 

 

Why is it so hard to fathom? At least for the next couple years they are just an incredible team.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Why is it so hard to fathom? At least for the next couple years they are just an incredible team.

 

They got about 2 great seasons left before they are old and expensive. That's when hopefully the division swings back in our favor for a few years.

[Eminor3rd]

What's that supposed to mean?

 

I'm tired of reminding people that De Aza was one of our top 2 or 3 best position players last year. You can't say, "The Sox need to sign more than just Abreu" and then also say, "#1 priority should be getting rid of De Aza." Those two are mutually exclusive. If you want to win next year, then the #1 priority should be getting rid of Beckham, Keppinger, Flowers, Phegley, Viciedo, Gillaspie, or Dunn becuase every single one of those were demonstrably worse than De Aza last year.

[Boopa1219]

I think that standing pat is the right thing to do for the White Sox, I love the Abreu signing and it makes sense from a baseball standpoint and I love it because they nabbed a middle of the order hitter for $10 million a year. But there is no one that makes sense for this team on the open market, and if I am Rick Hahn, I am calling every GM in MLB as I try to bring some young talent into the fold. (Here's to you Angel Sanchez)

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'm tired of reminding people that De Aza was one of our top 2 or 3 best position players last year. You can't say, "The Sox need to sign more than just Abreu" and then also say, "#1 priority should be getting rid of De Aza." Those two are mutually exclusive. If you want to win next year, then the #1 priority should be getting rid of Beckham, Keppinger, Flowers, Phegley, Viciedo, Gillaspie, or Dunn becuase every single one of those were demonstrably worse than De Aza last year.

 

We had exactly 3 hitters who amassed more than a WAR of 1.0 last season. THREE f***ING HITTERS!!! One of those was Rios who isn't even here anymore. Just because he was one of the tallest midgets doesn't mean him a tall person.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think that standing pat is the right thing to do for the White Sox, I love the Abreu signing and it makes sense from a baseball standpoint and I love it because they nabbed a middle of the order hitter for $10 million a year. But there is no one that makes sense for this team on the open market, and if I am Rick Hahn, I am calling every GM in MLB as I try to bring some young talent into the fold. (Here's to you Angel Sanchez)

CSN article from Hahn:

“Obviously we have a number of areas where we need to improve,” Hahn said. “We will explore all of them whether it’s free agency or trade. It’s probably more likely that trades are next, but at the same time we haven’t even hit true domestic free agency yet so it’s not anything we’re ruling out until we do our similar due diligence on some of the players that are available there.”

 

November 5th is the start of domestic free agency.

[JoshPR]

I'm tired of reminding people that De Aza was one of our top 2 or 3 best position players last year. You can't say, "The Sox need to sign more than just Abreu" and then also say, "#1 priority should be getting rid of De Aza." Those two are mutually exclusive. If you want to win next year, then the #1 priority should be getting rid of Beckham, Keppinger, Flowers, Phegley, Viciedo, Gillaspie, or Dunn becuase every single one of those were demonstrably worse than De Aza last year.

Really??? How many games did this dufus cost us with bad defense, bad baserunning and overall being stupid? He's Carlos Lee part Deux. Tell me what was CLee's WAR in a sox uni? And I recall vividly how 95% on this board wanted him gone... Think outside the sabermetrics box sometimes....

[caulfield12]

I can understand why Sox aren't going to get Ellsbury and McCann if those 2 get ridiculous contracts, which they probably will.

 

But I hope the trades and moves they make are for this upcoming season and not just for prospects. Our division is pretty horses*** (I'm not a believer in Cleveland and KC) and it's hard to fathom that we can't compete with Detroit. I know we currently can't beat anybody in our division, but we need to revamp the lineup so we can start to win divisional games again.

 

I love the Grobber and he said last night on his show the Sox pitching is good enough to win with. He said, 'they just have to take care of that lineup, change that lineup.' I agree. Writing off next season is stupid. Make some trades, sign AJP as stopgap catcher on the cheap.

 

 

Without Santiago/Quintana, who they would probably have to trade to get a legit 3B, they would go into next season with a starting rotation of:

 

Sale

Quintana

Danks

E. Johnson

A. Rienzo

 

Compare that with Verlander/Scherzer (co-aces), Sanchez (who was one of the top ten pitchers in the AL), Fister, Porcello and then Smyly could easily be inserted into the rotation.

 

There's just no comparison.

 

And you're forgetting the Indians, Royals and Twins all improving. If you can't make a case for them being better than KC, they're better off waiting until Dunn's gone.

 

The only reason the Tigers are vulnerable is because of Fielder and Cabrera's health and psyches...along with their lack of a bullpen, speed and fielding (outside of Austin Jackson, who was a huge disappointment this season). But they'll figure out how to replace Victor Martinez and shore up that offense by adding a LF in free agency.

 

 

For the time being, they're just going to have to find "rent-a-veterans" and hope for the best. Obviously, that didn't work too well for the Royals the past two decades...trying to hold the fort down while mixing in players like Ankiel or Bloomquist or Jose Guillen or Francouer, etc.

 

That means signing a couple of pitchers like Gavin Floyd or Edinson Volquez on the cheap. Maybe Josh Johnson. There are probably 5-10 names out there.

 

 

It doesn't mean overpaying for the likes of Victorino, Choo, Ellsbury, Granderson, Ethier, etc.

 

This is the last season for Viciedo, Beckham, DeAza (and Ramirez) with the White Sox unless they can turn their careers around.

 

I don't think anyone really cares one way or the other what happens with Gillaspie, Keppinger, Flowers, Phegley or Dunn (I will only say that Conor decides the starting job coming into ST until someone unseats him or there's a trade/FA signing).

 

 

Even if the White Sox signed Ellsbury AND McCann, they would still have issues at LF, 3B and 2B (and god knows what Dunn will do). We don't even know what we're going to get out of Garcia in a full season, either. It's just not the right time to hand out $250 million in contracts for just two players.

 

Here's another way of thinking about it...

 

CF Ellsbury

LF Gordon

2B Cano

RF Choo

1B Hosmer

C Perez

DH Cain (whoever's sitting in OF/Perez/Hosmer)

3B Moustakas

SS Escobar

 

Besides being too left-handed, with Santana leaving, I still don't think the Royals would have enough pitching even with that line-up that's going to add $375-450 million in salary commitments ($100-125 for Choo, $125-150 for Ellsbury, $150-175 for Cano).

 

Granted, it would be a REALLY fun team to watch, but I still believe the Tigers' pitching would prevail, leaving the Royals fighting for one of two wild card spots. (And was it really worth it for the Indians to fight so hard all season long and end the season the way they did only to end up getting knocked out in a single game?)

Edited November 1, 2013 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Really??? How many games did this dufus cost us with bad defense, bad baserunning and overall being stupid? He's Carlos Lee part Deux. Tell me what was CLee's WAR in a sox uni? And I recall vividly how 95% on this board wanted him gone... Think outside the sabermetrics box sometimes....

 

 

He was fine until he started making $10 million plus per season and got lazy/attitude issues.

 

Never quite as a good of a hitter or overall player as his statistics LOOKED, but he wasn't the main problem, either.

[Chicago White Sox]

140 innings this season. Assume next year he can do 180 innings, that should put him around a 1.9 WAR. So I guess MAYBE a 2.5 WAR if he improves some next year, that's still less than Arenado already put up last year at age 22.

Not disagreeing with you on Arenado, just saying that Santiago is easily a 2 WAR player with minor improvements with the potential for much, much more.

[caulfield12]

Not disagreeing with you on Arenado, just saying that Santiago is easily a 2 WAR player with minor improvements with the potential for much, much more.

 

The Rockies aren't going trade Arenado for Santiago...so it's a moot point. They wouldn't trade him for Quintana, either.

 

I do think they would prefer Santiago over Quintana, simply because Hector has better stuff and in their minds might be more likely to succeed at Coors. He has the higher ceiling/talent/ability level. Still, he's also a flyball pitcher, and that's dangerous.

 

 

I don't understand why they don't work more with Hector on refining his repertoire of pitches down to just three (Wacha throws 90% fastballs and change-ups, granted, they're heavy fastballs and coming in at 94-97 mph) and focus on the two-seam/sinking fastball, which proved to be a huge weapon for Francisco Liriano this season with the Pirates. If Hector can stop worrying about velocity and pitch with better movement/location, he'd be a much more effective pitcher and could get his pitch counts down where he could go 6-7+ innings nearly every start.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sounds like the Red Sox might not offer Salty a QO. If that's the case, I'd like to see the White Sox pursue him aggressively, even if they feel he's only the strong half of a platoon. Here are his stats against RHP last year:

 

.294/.350/.523/.873 with a wRC+ of 135

 

Those numbers would be a HUGE upgrade for us at the catcher's spot and address multiple offense needs. Plus with the amount of RHP in the AL Central he could easily get 120 starts, so the platoon aspect would be somewhat overrated.

 

He turns 29 next May, so a 4 year deal would take you through his age 29 to 32 seasons. I would be willing to throw $36M in that case. If he could repeat his total production from 2013 that deal would be a complete steal.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Sounds like the Red Sox might not offer Salty a QO. If that's the case, I'd like to see the White Sox pursue him aggressively, even if they feel he's only the strong half of a platoon. Here are his stats against RHP last year:

 

.294/.350/.523/.873 with a wRC+ of 135

 

Those numbers would be a HUGE upgrade for us at the catcher's spot and address multiple offense needs. Plus with the amount of RHP in the AL Central he could easily get 120 starts, so the platoon aspect would be somewhat overrated.

 

He turns 29 next May, so a 4 year deal would take you through his age 29 to 32 seasons. I would be willing to throw $36M in that case. If he could repeat his total production from 2013 that deal would be a complete steal.

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2...keep_jarro.html

 

Arguments why they would/should keep him.

 

The only reason they won't keep him is if they're going to bring in McCann instead, IMO.

 

They're likely to lose Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew. That frees up a TON of money.

 

 

FWIW, they would be the perfect team to trade Alexei Ramirez to, if not's going to be the Cardinals or Pirates.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Really??? How many games did this dufus cost us with bad defense, bad baserunning and overall being stupid? He's Carlos Lee part Deux. Tell me what was CLee's WAR in a sox uni? And I recall vividly how 95% on this board wanted him gone... Think outside the sabermetrics box sometimes....

 

How many games did everyone else cost us just from playing like s*** constantly? His baserunning errors seem like louder mistakes to you, but the fact of the matter is the dude hit better than almost everyone, stole a lot of bases at a solid success rate, and actually played better defense even after his errors than the other inept players that were beside him.

 

How many games did Viciedo/Flowers/Beckham/Keppinger/Phegley/etc. cost us from just getting f***ing out like EVERY time they came to the plate? You don't have to use sabermetrics to come to this conclusion, just look at what happened. I don't know why 4-5 stupid baserunning plays in the midst of a solid season makes him worse than the near constant failure that plagued almost everyone else on the roster.

[Eminor3rd]

We had exactly 3 hitters who amassed more than a WAR of 1.0 last season. THREE f***ING HITTERS!!! One of those was Rios who isn't even here anymore. Just because he was one of the tallest midgets doesn't mean him a tall person.

 

No, I totally get you here. You can argue that everyone on the team sucks and so they should all go if possible and you can make a lot of sense -- but this guy is arguing that the Sox need to be spending more money on big free agent signings so the team can be better next year. You don't add a couple nice players and then get rid of of one of your best to offset it, even if he isn't THAT good. There's just no way you can argue that the team should get better NEXT year by losing De Aza at all costs when there are 8 WAY worse players that should obviously be replaced first.

[glangon]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2...keep_jarro.html

 

Arguments why they would/should keep him.

 

The only reason they won't keep him is if they're going to bring in McCann instead, IMO.

 

They're likely to lose Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew. That frees up a TON of money.

 

 

FWIW, they would be the perfect team to trade Alexei Ramirez to, if not's going to be the Cardinals or Pirates.

 

Why would the Red Sox go with Ramirez when they will be playing Bogaerts at SS and Middlebrooks at 3B.

 

Their needs will be a catcher a Centre Fielder (unless they move Victorino out there) and a 1st Baseman.

 

Similar to our needs but we filled one with the signing of Abreu.

[witesoxfan]

We had exactly 3 hitters who amassed more than a WAR of 1.0 last season. THREE f***ING HITTERS!!! One of those was Rios who isn't even here anymore. Just because he was one of the tallest midgets doesn't mean him a tall person.

 

No, it makes him an average sized person, which means he's perfectly average and perfectly acceptable. The Sox need to get rid of those that are 2 or 3 feet tall.

 

I have no problem with the Sox trading De Aza, but this "LET'S GIT RID O' HIM, HE DUMB" attitude really gets old.

[Balta1701]

I have no problem with the Sox trading De Aza, but this "LET'S GIT RID O' HIM, HE DUMB" attitude really gets old.

I'm still going with the "God I wish some coach could get through to this guy" version of it.

[TaylorStSox]

I'm still going with the "God I wish some coach could get through to this guy" version of it.

Coaching won't help. He has awful instincts. You can't fix that.

 

Between all the posts about WAR and Caufield's TL;DR posts, this thread makes me very sleepy.

[Balta1701]

Coaching won't help. He has awful instincts. You can't fix that.

Frankly, I completely disagree, I think we've seen plenty of people who improve with time, particularly when they're OF's. Maybe you can say that about 3b where the position needs the fastest reaction time on the diamond, but this is what we see when people improve on defense with experience - improvement in their instinctive reactions.