Sox likely to be quiet in free agency after Abreu

[2nd_city_saint787]

Is there really a correlation between run differential and future success? This team found ways to lose because they're really bad at baseball, not because they're close.

 

See my edited post.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

See my edited post.

If they had 1 or 2 more good players, they'd still be a bad team. Baseball teams aren't just a collection of stats.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

This is a team that lost 55 games by 2 runs or less(36 by 1 run, most in the majors), yes, the record looks bad on paper but it's not like they were consistently getting blown out. If you make 3 offensive upgrades there's no reason they shouldn't be at least closer to competing in 2014.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games they lost were caused by errors? You upgrade CF defensively with Ellsbury and that helps a lot.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games were caused by having a middle of the order bat that had a .310 slugging% vs RHP(what we mainly faced)? You hope you upgraded that with Abreu over PK.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games were caused by having a Catcher platoon that hit in the .200s with an OBP around .220 and defensively wasn't very good to boot? An upgrade there helps the team a lot as well.

We are on the exact same page .I've commented many times about those close games and and upgrades at 4-5 positions will help more than you might think, at least in theory ,if our starting pitching can put up basically the same numbers as last year. I'm hoping Abreu and Garcia for a full season is 1 upgrade and maybe 2 though Garcia might not have the same kind of impact as Rios did , but it's possible. Hoping Gillaspie improves or you see if you can get Lawrie . Brayan Pena or Dionnerer Navarro catching( switch hitters ) and Ellsbury is a huge upgrade. I know he's more of a dream with Boras as his agent but each year has to get major upgrades or competing in the next 2 years seems a lot further away.

[TaylorStSox]

We've definitely improved at 1st. I don't think we've improved in RF. Garcia has a bright future, but he isn't as good as Rios yet.

[2nd_city_saint787]

You keep adding pieces that will give you long term success. A 30 year old, injury prone, $20M a year speedster isn't one of those pieces IMO.

 

He's more than just a speedster. He gets on base at a good clip, doesn't strike out a bunch, and he can hit the ball. He's a legit table setter. He doesn't always have to steal 50 bags in the later years of his contract to be effective. There are a ton of "speedsters" who played well into their mid 30's and were still effective. If he gets 5/100 I'm confident he'd still be a more than competent player at ages 34 and 35.

[TaylorStSox]

He's more than just a speedster. He gets on base at a good clip, doesn't strike out a bunch, and he can hit the ball. He's a legit table setter. He doesn't always have to steal 50 bags in the later years of his contract to be effective. There are a ton of "speedsters" who played well into their mid 30's and were still effective. If he gets 5/100 I'm confident he'd still be a more than competent player at ages 34 and 35.

Who are these guys that are similar to Ellsbury that were effective into their mid-30's? We're talking $20M a year effective, not just good ball players.

[Balta1701]

Who are these guys that are similar to Ellsbury that were effective into their mid-30's? We're talking $20M a year effective, not just good ball players.

If the White Sox are going after Ellsbury, it's not because of what he'll give them in his mid-30's. At least that's not how they should be looking at it.

 

If the White Sox are going after a guy like Ellsbury, anything you get from him in the latter years should be looked at as gravy. The only reason you sign a guy like that is that you're expecting to be competitive in the first 2-3 years of the deal. If you don't have a team that can win the series with him in the year you sign him...it's the wrong deal to make. That goes for anyone getting one of those 7 year deals; the last few years are the lottery ticket at the end that might be nice, the first few years is when you need to be ready to compete if you're signing one.

[TaylorStSox]

If the White Sox are going after Ellsbury, it's not because of what he'll give them in his mid-30's. At least that's not how they should be looking at it.

 

If the White Sox are going after a guy like Ellsbury, anything you get from him in the latter years should be looked at as gravy. The only reason you sign a guy like that is that you're expecting to be competitive in the first 2-3 years of the deal. If you don't have a team that can win the series with him in the year you sign him...it's the wrong deal to make. That goes for anyone getting one of those 7 year deals; the last few years are the lottery ticket at the end that might be nice, the first few years is when you need to be ready to compete if you're signing one.

That Sox aren't in that position. Signing guys like Ellsbury is a luxury that established teams have. You add him to strengthen a good team. Signing him to build around is something teams like the Mets do. That's why they perennially are s***ty to mediocre.

 

The Sox most definitely aren't in a position to add a guy knowing that he won't be worth his salary in 3 years. That's so incredibly foolish that I'm not articulate enough to explain how stupid it would be.

[Quin]

I'd be all in for giving Ellsbury a $140M/7 years

 

Frontload it, give a signing bonus, and do a PK style deferred payment.

[2nd_city_saint787]

If they had 1 or 2 more good players, they'd still be a bad team. Baseball teams aren't just a collection of stats.

 

Depending on who those players are I disagree. Especially if Abreu is the player we all hope he is. Words can't describe just how bad Paulie was, he was ranked 953 of 955 in wRC+ and as a middle of the lineup bat that is just horrendous. If Abreu is the top 25 hitter that some scouts think he'll be that upgrade is just HUGE.

 

 

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

Depending on who those players are I disagree. Especially if Abreu is the player we all hope he is. Words can't describe just how bad Paulie was, he was ranked 953 of 955 in wRC+ and as a middle of the lineup bat that is just horrendous. If Abreu is the top 25 hitter that some scouts think he'll be that upgrade is just HUGE.

Trust me, you don't have to explain how bad Konerko is. I'm one of the few Sox fans that was never much of a Konerko fan.

 

I believe in Abreu, but even if he is a stud, we've upgraded at exactly 1 position. I expect Viciedo and Gillaspie to improve. I expect Beckham to lose his job. I expect Ramirez to have a better year in the field. Even if all those things happen, I still don't expect to be close to contending.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Who are these guys that are similar to Ellsbury that were effective into their mid-30's? We're talking $20M a year effective, not just good ball players.

 

Without looking to deep into it Juan Pierre hit .307/.351/.371 with 37 SB at age 34. Coco Crisp just put up a 4 WAR season at age 34.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

Without looking to deep into it Juan Pierre hit .307/.351/.371 with 37 SB at age 34. Coco Crisp just put up a 4 WAR season at age 34.

You want to pay Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp $20M a year? You don't pay guys that rely on speed that much unless their name is Ricky Henderson. Honestly, any stats that use defensive metrics to place value on a player don't mean a whole lot to me.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Trust me, you don't have to explain how bad Konerko is. I'm one of the few Sox fans that was never much of a Konerko fan.

 

I believe in Abreu, but even if he is a stud, we've upgraded at exactly 1 position. I expect Viciedo and Gillaspie to improve. I expect Beckham to lose his job. I expect Ramirez to have a better year in the field. Even if all those things happen, I still don't expect to be close to contending.

 

If all those things happen and you also add Ellsbury, who improves the team both offensively and defensively, and then also improve the catchers position why couldn't that team compete? Then going into 2015 Dunn comes off the books and you have plenty of money for an upgrade there and you're in even better position.

[Eminor3rd]

You want to pay Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp $20M a year? You don't pay guys that rely on speed that much unless their name is Ricky Henderson. Honestly, any stats that use defensive metrics to place value on a player don't mean a whole lot to me.

 

To be clear, I am totally with you that we should not be signing guys like Ellsbury right now.

 

BUT

 

The bolded statement seems very short-sighted without an accompanying explanation. Do you not value defense, or do you not trust the numbers? If it's the latter, what is it about the numbers you don't trust?

[TaylorStSox]

If all those things happen and you also add Ellsbury, who improves the team both offensively and defensively, and then also improve the catchers position why couldn't that team compete? Then going into 2015 Dunn comes off the books and you have plenty of money for an upgrade there and you're in even better position.

Because they're marginal improvements and Ellsbury isn't Barry Bonds.

[2nd_city_saint787]

You want to pay Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp $20M a year? You don't pay guys that rely on speed that much unless their name is Ricky Henderson. Honestly, any stats that use defensive metrics to place value on a player don't mean a whole lot to me.

 

Like Balta said, he may not be worth that much come the final 2 years of his contract but he's gonna earn that contract the first 3-4 years of it and I'd say chances are he's still gonna be a valuable player the last 1-2. It's not like Ellsbury is a guy who lays down a ton of bunts to get on base so speed isn't the only component of his game and I wouldn't say he relies on it. He had nearly 50 XBHs last year in 134 games, he's much more than a slappy speed guy.

Edited November 2, 2013 by scs787

[TaylorStSox]

To be clear, I am totally with you that we should not be signing guys like Ellsbury right now.

 

BUT

 

The bolded statement seems very short-sighted without an accompanying explanation. Do you not value defense, or do you not trust the numbers? If it's the latter, what is it about the numbers you don't trust?

Of course I value defense. I will never value defensive stats. Defense is evaluated with eyes, not numbers. Don't even bother trying to change my mind, it will be pointless.

[ILMOU]

Without looking to deep into it Juan Pierre hit .307/.351/.371 with 37 SB at age 34. Coco Crisp just put up a 4 WAR season at age 34.

 

Kenny Lofton and Tim Raines are decent comps to Ellsbury, imo, and I think they put up some nice seasons well into their 30's. Don't think the Sox will go that deep for another FA, though.

 

Would jump on Salty at the right price and years. Do we still forfeit a draft pick with a signing at his level?

[TaylorStSox]

Like Balta said, he may not be worth that much come the final 2 years of his contract but he's gonna earn that contract the first 3-4 years of it and I'd say chances are he's still gonna be a valuable player the last 1-2. It's not like Ellsbury is a guy who lays down a ton of bunts to get on base so speed isn't the only component of his game and I wouldn't say he relies on it. He had nearly 50 XBHs last year in 134 games, he's much more than a slappy speed guy.

Ramirez almost had 50 XBHs last year and is a fantastic defender. I sure as hell don't want to pay him anywhere near that.

 

If the Sox want to spend the money on Ellsbury, I'd be happy. It's not my money. I still think its a foolish decision and it reminds me of something the Mets do. Rebuilding teams don't invest 1/6th of their payroll (optimistically) into risks like Ellsbury.

[Eminor3rd]

Of course I value defense. I will never value defensive stats. Defense is evaluated with eyes, not numbers. Don't even bother trying to change my mind, it will be pointless.

 

What is your argument for this?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

You're stuck in what guys did in the past. Ellsbury doesn't win the Sox anything, he might get them back to 80 wins. Money wasted.

 

I understand and agree that just adding Ellsbury and Abreu won't make this team good, but it surely doesn't make this team WORSE. And to say Ellsbury has no upside is still ridiculous. Maybe be doesn't have a ton of room to improve, but if he stays like this or even slowly declines he will be a very valuable player.

[Dick Allen]

Kenny Lofton and Tim Raines are decent comps to Ellsbury, imo, and I think they put up some nice seasons well into their 30's. Don't think the Sox will go that deep for another FA, though.

 

Would jump on Salty at the right price and years. Do we still forfeit a draft pick with a signing at his level?

Yes, but they weren't worth the money at 33 or 34, plus Ellsbury tends to get hurt a lot. You probably get at least a year or 2 of an excellent player, but after that, the countdown until his contact is off the books probably is pretty big.

 

If the Red Sox don't give Salty a qualifying offer, there is no comp. of course we are talking about a guy they benched in the WS.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Dick Allen

[TaylorStSox]

What is your argument for this?

My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math.

 

Well if you saw Ellsbury you'd be impressed.