Sox likely to be quiet in free agency after Abreu

[caulfield12]

As others have said, Montero isn't catching much longer. He is atrocious behind the dish. I'd still have some interest in bringing him in, but where's he gonna play? Not a great fit. Zunino and D'Arnaud aren't going anywhere. Someone mentioned Jason Casto - now, that would be a move I could get on board with, and I'd probably trade Santiago + to get.

 

 

 

 

Yikes. A healthy Ellsbury would totally change the complexion of the SOX in a good way. Hell, if I had Ellsbury, I would still keep De Aza and get him some starts all over the OF. There is no doubt that a 7 year $140M contract would be hampering to the SOX at some point, but I think this team has a chance:

 

Ellsbury CF

Semien 2B

Abreu 1B

Dunn DH

Garcia RF

Jason Castro C

Gillaspie / Keppinger 3B

Viciedo LF

Ramirez SS

 

BN: De Aza, L. Garcia, Flowers.

 

Sale

J. Johnson (1 year deal $8M, option for $10M)

Santiago

E. Johnson

Danks

 

Add a veteran arm to the pen, and I like it. That team has a chance to compete next year below $120M.

 

 

 

Ding, ding, ding. +1,000

 

They're not going to keep DeAza on the bench at $4.4 million.

 

And I'm assuming in your example you've just traded Quintana/Beckham for Castro?

Edited November 2, 2013 by caulfield12

[greg775]

Granderson's headed for 3 years $42-45 or 4/$48.

 

There's no way they can sign him for $8 million for one season.

 

AJ's going to get more than that...and he'll probably be looking for a one year deal with an option.

 

 

Trading Viciedo and Beckham won't accomplish much. Who do you want to play in the OF? Jordan Danks? Jared Mitchell? Thompson? Because you're not going to be able to get Granderson unless those salary numbers were from a decade ago.

 

Even AJ will be the 3rd or 4th FA option after McCann and Saltalamacchia.

 

 

I'm not understanding why everyone wants to trade Santiago unless we're getting a young starting 3B or C.

 

Are you sure on that money, Caufield? Grandy is going to get a huge deal? How many teams out there are still spending that kind of money for good but not greatness? AJ making more than $4 mill? Good luck to the teams that want to pay that, I guess. All I know is we need better players than Viciedo and DeAza; Kepp and Gillaspie and Gordo. Otherwise last place beckons and we waste decent pitching.

[ChiSox59]

They're not going to keep DeAza on the bench at $4.4 million.

 

And I'm assuming in your example you've just traded Quintana/Beckham for Castro?

 

Why not? They have the space to. Play him a few times a week all over the OF. Nice insurance policy for when Ellsbury hits the DL. And yes, Quintana for Castro. Don't really care about Gordo anymore - but I think it's time to cut bait. I'd keep him on the roster, but I just don't see that happening. The one thing the SOX minor leagues do have are guys capable of playing 2B. Time for the SOX to move on.

[caulfield12]

This thread is funny.

 

1. The Sox will not be signing Ellsbury or someone else that costs the team a 2nd round draft pick.

2. A.J. Pierzynski is not coming back.

3. I work with Curtis Granderson's college roommate and he says that White Sox would be interested in a short term deal (2 years). Yankees will most likely give him a QO taking him off the table for the Sox as well.

 

 

Moves like that just don't make business sense for the White Sox right now. The Sox need to draft and develop the next Jacoby Ellsbury rather than paying the actual Jacoby Ellsbury money for past performance. It's flawed logic. Let someone else do that.

 

 

Therein lies the problem. None of those toolsy outfielders (Mitchell, Thompson, Jacobs, Walker, Hawkins) are anywhere close to having the impact of an Ellsbury.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Are you sure on that money, Caufield? Grandy is going to get a huge deal? How many teams out there are still spending that kind of money for good but not greatness? AJ making more than $4 mill? Good luck to the teams that want to pay that, I guess. All I know is we need better players than Viciedo and DeAza; Kepp and Gillaspie and Gordo. Otherwise last place beckons and we waste decent pitching.

 

 

Yes he is right on with that money. Greg, Hunter Pence just got $90 million. Hunter Effing Pence. That is why you don't rebuild a core through free agency. This may take awhile. People not understanding that is mind boggling to me.

[caulfield12]

Why not? They have the space to. Play him a few times a week all over the OF. Nice insurance policy for when Ellsbury hits the DL. And yes, Quintana for Castro. Don't really care about Gordo anymore - but I think it's time to cut bait. I'd keep him on the roster, but I just don't see that happening. The one thing the SOX minor leagues do have are guys capable of playing 2B. Time for the SOX to move on.

 

 

There's the problem...you can't spend $125-150 million on a player you're already expecting or predicting will be injured. Because those endemic health issues aren't going to improve when he's 34-35-36.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Therein lies the problem. None of those toolsy outfielders (Mitchell, Thompson, Jacobs, Walker, Hawkins) are anywhere close to having the impact of an Ellsbury.

 

 

I know that. I agree that the player I am referring to is not in the organization yet. It's easier said than done. I still would not want to pay for past performance though. If Ellsbury loses his speed or goes on the DL the whole plan is shot. It's like investing in Jose Reyes. Investing that much money in a player whose game depends so much on speed is a problem for me.

[Balta1701]

I know that. I agree that the player I am referring to is not in the organization yet. It's easier said than done. I still would not want to pay for past performance though. If Ellsbury loses his speed or goes on the DL the whole plan is shot. It's like investing in Jose Reyes. Investing that much money in a player whose game depends so much on speed is a problem for me.

It would make sense if the White Sox were coming off an 85 win season and their CF had performed as badly as Konerko did this year. Neither of those are the case.

[TaylorStSox]

It would make sense if the White Sox were coming off an 85 win season and their CF had performed as badly as Konerko did this year. Neither of those are the case.

Exactly. That's when you roll the dice.

[caulfield12]

 

I would like to borrow those five toolsy outfielders and add them to the Iowa football offense.

 

God, they're the most boring team in the history of college FB, and Iowa's had some boring offenses under Ferentz, who's one of the highest paid coaches in the game.

 

 

If they're going to do something dumb, I'd rather they spend that money on Ellsbury than a Choo or Granderson, but it's just never going to happen.

 

Everyone has been debating DeAza and the debate will continue on the likes of Beckham, Viciedo and Gillapsie/Keppinger, but NOBODY'S advocating for Flowers/Phegley to be the starting catcher. NOBODY.

 

Which makes it pretty obvious that's where the money should go first. Because having an Ellsbury on a team without a bullpen, without any proven offensive players, without a catcher, it's just not logical.

 

It's like adding a spoiler and racing stripes and platinum rims to a Prius. It might look good, but it's better to change the entire car and start from scratch.

 

 

[Jake]

Of course I value defense. I will never value defensive stats. Defense is evaluated with eyes, not numbers. Don't even bother trying to change my mind, it will be pointless.

 

 

My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math.

 

All of these things are evaluated with human eyes in the calculation of UZR. Every single defensive play is watched and measured. The distance the player covered, the speed of the batted ball, whether baserunners advance more bases than they ought to, and a few subjective measures of difficulty (bad hops, for instance). Each play is given a number value based on how these things came together: did the guy not cover the distance that he should have but made a great throw to get the runner out? His range will be downgraded and his arm will be upgraded. Did he cover a ton of ground, then drop the ball? Range is upgraded, error rating downgraded.

[Eminor3rd]

Ok, I see your point, but we wouldn't know what GMs are paying per win if Fangraphs didn't have the formula in place to begin with. So I don't really know which would is more true than the other since they go hand in hand.

 

I'm just trying to clarify what you were saying about that so that people don't start crying about how sabermetrics is dumb because it turns wins into money, that's all.

[greg775]

I would like to borrow those five toolsy outfielders and add them to the Iowa football offense.

 

God, they're the most boring team in the history of college FB, and Iowa's had some boring offenses under Ferentz, who's one of the highest paid coaches in the game.

 

 

If they're going to do something dumb, I'd rather they spend that money on Ellsbury than a Choo or Granderson, but it's just never going to happen.

 

Everyone has been debating DeAza and the debate will continue on the likes of Beckham, Viciedo and Gillapsie/Keppinger, but NOBODY'S advocating for Flowers/Phegley to be the starting catcher. NOBODY.

 

Which makes it pretty obvious that's where the money should go first. Because having an Ellsbury on a team without a bullpen, without any proven offensive players, without a catcher, it's just not logical.

 

It's like adding a spoiler and racing stripes and platinum rims to a Prius. It might look good, but it's better to change the entire car and start from scratch.

 

I think Hahn realizes we have 4-5 positions that MUST be changed. He has to do it unless he wants another 95 plus loss season. He won't last long if we don't get to .500 soon and start contending soon. Being the worst team or two in baseball won't cut it and currently the Sox are a bottom feeder entering next season. Hahn will change it.

[Balta1701]

I think Hahn realizes we have 4-5 positions that MUST be changed. He has to do it unless he wants another 95 plus loss season. He won't last long if we don't get to .500 soon and start contending soon. Being the worst team or two in baseball won't cut it and currently the Sox are a bottom feeder entering next season. Hahn will change it.

Compared to the middle of last season, we've already changed 3...Garcia, Abreu, and Phegley taking over for Rios, Konerko, and Flowers. Phegley might still need replaced again.

 

There's still work to be done, but there has already been a decent amount of turnover from the team that was terrible for the first half of last year and the guy who was by far the most disappointing has been replaced with our biggest expenditure.

[caulfield12]

I think Hahn realizes we have 4-5 positions that MUST be changed. He has to do it unless he wants another 95 plus loss season. He won't last long if we don't get to .500 soon and start contending soon. Being the worst team or two in baseball won't cut it and currently the Sox are a bottom feeder entering next season. Hahn will change it.

 

 

You can say the same thing for Epstein on the Northside.

 

He has at least two more years and probably three. They've just gone through two terrible seasons.

 

 

Hahn, at a minimum, will have through the 2015 season and probably into 2016 unless the entire organization just falls apart and they badly blow the #3 draft pick next year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Exactly. That's when you roll the dice.

A lot of us are advocating Ellsbury because we want the Sox to compete ASAP and we also know theres financial room for him .Beyond that we also know there's a 90% chance it won't happen because he should defintely get more than the 5yr/100M me and scs87 wish he'd get.

 

We want to get as good as possible as fast as possible while we still have our good core of starting pitching. This is where we have our fundamental difference.

 

You think we were so bad that its going to take a while to compete again wheras we see a lot of close loses thats can be turned into wins with defensive , hitting and baserunning improvement and Ellsbury provide s all 3 of those things . That's why guys like Ellsbury and Manny Machado and a handful of other are so valuable. There just aren't that many players in baseball who are good offensively and defensively. Then throw in his baserunning . It's very difficult to develop minor league pieces that might be ready right when our starting pitching starts disintegrating.

 

You also said when we get close then add that one big free agent piece but going after that piece and getting it are 2 very different things.

 

But I've enjoyed the discussion on both sides and am glad a poll or thread about Ellsbury didn't have to be made in order for everyone to get their 2 cents worth in about it.

Edited November 2, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Wasn't that because Ross was a personal catcher for one of their starters?

 

He had a pretty miserable post-season, but unless the Red Sox can sign McCann...they're going to want to hold onto him. What other players out there would be a clear upgrade?

 

Then you have the Rangers, the Yankees, the Braves, White Sox, there are quite a few teams out there looking for catching all circling around the same 2-3 guys.

You made a post earlier about the Red Sox adding mid level free agents. Let the rest of the teams who need a catcher circle the wagons around MaCann and Salty . I still think guys like Brayan Pena and Dioner Navarro can both provide the Sox a decent starting option at catcher and yes even AJ .

 

Pena and Navarro both switch hit and had pretty decent years in limited roles . Both of those guy are midt-tier free agents . Navarro also has pretty good power for all those who remember him hitting 3 HR's off us with the Cubs last year. I think they represent a clear upgrade because , frankly, who doesn't ? Flower's might be non-tendered.

Edited November 3, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

You made a post earlier about the Red Sox adding mid level free agents. Let the rest of the teams who need a catcher circle the wagons around MaCann and Salty . I still think guys like Brayan Pena and Dionner Navarro can both provide the Sox a decent starting option at catcher and yes even AJ .

 

Pena and Navarro both switch hit and had pretty decent years in limited roles . Both of those guy are midt-tier free agents . Navarro also has pretty good power for all those who remember him hitting 3 HR's off us with the Cubs last year. I think they represent a clear upgrade because , frankly, who doesn't ? Flower's might be non-tendered.

For the White Sox...going with one of those guys would make sense if they were confident in Phegley or Flowers and wanted a more veteran backup alongside. In that case, Navarro might not fit well since he's a righty.

 

Just keep in mind, neither of those guys has 400 PA's since Navarro in 2009. They're backups. .684 career OPS for Navarro, .651 for Pena. Navarro had solid numbers last year....in 260 PA's as a heavily platooned player against LH starters.

 

I can see how one of those guys can have a role just fine...but it's a backup role next to a starting Josh Phegley who gets 450-500 PA's. Are you confident Phegley can be a solid starting catcher and contribute with the bat like a starter? Is Hahn? I don't know, but that's the situation where adding one of those guys makes sense.

 

In terms of AJ...fine...if we're expecting him to get 200 PA's. The problem is...if AJ gets his usual 500+ PA's and Phegley or Flowers gets consigned to backup duty...we're not doing anything to set ourselves up long term. If you're pessimistic, maybe one of the guys we currently have has a 5% chance of breaking out next year...but AJ would have a 0% chance of being a contributor to the White Sox long term. he'd only be a fit if we signed Ellsbury and had other upgrades on top of that - where they want a starting catcher next year that they can count on to help compete next year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

For the White Sox...going with one of those guys would make sense if they were confident in Phegley or Flowers and wanted a more veteran backup alongside. In that case, Navarro might not fit well since he's a righty.

 

Just keep in mind, neither of those guys has 400 PA's since Navarro in 2009. They're backups. .684 career OPS for Navarro, .651 for Pena. Navarro had solid numbers last year....in 260 PA's as a heavily platooned player against LH starters.

 

I can see how one of those guys can have a role just fine...but it's a backup role next to a starting Josh Phegley who gets 450-500 PA's. Are you confident Phegley can be a solid starting catcher and contribute with the bat like a starter? Is Hahn? I don't know, but that's the situation where adding one of those guys makes sense.

 

In terms of AJ...fine...if we're expecting him to get 200 PA's. The problem is...if AJ gets his usual 500+ PA's and Phegley or Flowers gets consigned to backup duty...we're not doing anything to set ourselves up long term. If you're pessimistic, maybe one of the guys we currently have has a 5% chance of breaking out next year...but AJ would have a 0% chance of being a contributor to the White Sox long term. he'd only be a fit if we signed Ellsbury and had other upgrades on top of that - where they want a starting catcher next year that they can count on to help compete next year.

Navarro is a switch hitter Balta you got your stats backwards on him. He got the majority of his AB's against against righties, and hit .279 with 7 HR's in 195 AB's . Against lefties as a RH hitter he had 61 AB's hit 6 HR's and had .361 BA. I think splitting time would be just fine , not sure Phegley should get that many AB's but it's splitting hairs. I'm not expecting any of those guys to be long term solutions thats why I never really wanted to think about AJ before. I'd rather get the 31 or 32 yr old guys and pray Phegly can get it together at the ML level.

Edited November 2, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

For the White Sox...going with one of those guys would make sense if they were confident in Phegley or Flowers and wanted a more veteran backup alongside. In that case, Navarro might not fit well since he's a righty.

 

Just keep in mind, neither of those guys has 400 PA's since Navarro in 2009. They're backups. .684 career OPS for Navarro, .651 for Pena. Navarro had solid numbers last year....in 260 PA's as a heavily platooned player against LH starters.

 

I can see how one of those guys can have a role just fine...but it's a backup role next to a starting Josh Phegley who gets 450-500 PA's. Are you confident Phegley can be a solid starting catcher and contribute with the bat like a starter? Is Hahn? I don't know, but that's the situation where adding one of those guys makes sense.

 

In terms of AJ...fine...if we're expecting him to get 200 PA's. The problem is...if AJ gets his usual 500+ PA's and Phegley or Flowers gets consigned to backup duty...we're not doing anything to set ourselves up long term. If you're pessimistic, maybe one of the guys we currently have has a 5% chance of breaking out next year...but AJ would have a 0% chance of being a contributor to the White Sox long term. he'd only be a fit if we signed Ellsbury and had other upgrades on top of that - where they want a starting catcher next year that they can count on to help compete next year.

 

 

And, if I'm Mike Illitch/Dombrowski, I'm looking for an upgrade over Avila at catcher (a bit touchy with his father in the front office, but he's been subpar two seasons in a row after looking like a future star in 2011)....2B (Cano?)...and then a power-hitting corner outfielder/LF/DH type who can help replace Victor Martinez's bat.

 

So the Tigers, yet another team in the catching sweepstakes that could outbit nearly everyone if they chose to do so.

 

The A's might be looking as well.

 

 

Buck and Suzuki are two other names to watch.

Edited November 2, 2013 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Navarro is a switch hitter Balta you got your stats backwards on him. He got the majority of his AB's against against righties, and hit .279 with 7 HR's in 195 AB's . Against lefties as a RH hitter he had 61 AB's hit 6 HR's and had .361 BA. I think splitting time would be just fine , not sure Phegley should get that many AB's but it's splitting hairs.

ok, if he's a switch hitter you've got a point, my bad for missing that. But the point stands, if we're signing a guy like that it really is being done with the idea that Rick Hahn thinks Josh Phegley is a starting catcher at the major league level and will show significant growth this year.

 

I got screwed up because Navarro's numbers were so good against lefties last year, 1.123 OPS when his career number against lefties is .778. It's also worth noting that career against righties....which is how he'd get the majority of his work if Phegley was the starter... .650 career OPS. So yeah, he can switch hit, but his weakest side is the side he'd get most of his work.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And, if I'm Mike Illitch/Dombrowski, I'm looking for an upgrade over Avila at catcher (a bit touchy with his father in the front office, but he's been subpar two seasons in a row after looking like a future star in 2011)....2B (Cano?)...and then a power-hitting corner outfielder/LF/DH type who can help replace Victor Martinez's bat.

 

So the Tigers, yet another team in the catching sweepstakes that could outbit nearly everyone if they chose to do so.

 

The A's might be looking as well.

 

 

Buck and Suzuki are two other names to watch.

Toronto is also looking for a C.

Edited November 2, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

Tanaka's going to get around $125 million, and he's not even close to the talent that Darvish is/was at the time of the posting.

 

The five best FA pitchers after Tanaka are Colon, Kuroda, U. Jimenez, Garza and E. Santana.

 

 

A ton of money's going to flow to those top five to ten position players at the top of the FA board.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/japanese-ace-...-171014762.html

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

ok, if he's a switch hitter you've got a point, my bad for missing that. But the point stands, if we're signing a guy like that it really is being done with the idea that Rick Hahn thinks Josh Phegley is a starting catcher at the major league level and will show significant growth this year.

 

I got screwed up because Navarro's numbers were so good against lefties last year, 1.123 OPS when his career number against lefties is .778. It's also worth noting that career against righties....which is how he'd get the majority of his work if Phegley was the starter... .650 career OPS. So yeah, he can switch hit, but his weakest side is the side he'd get most of his work.

Navarro will turn 30 in Feb. He's a hard guy to figure out because he looked great in 2008 with the Rays (Caulfield should love that )when he was pretty much a full time catcher and hit very good against RH's. Didn't show much power then so I don't know what got into him last year unless it was just Wrigley Field. But since the Cell is also a hitters park maybe that bodes well if his warning track power suddenly played well in a hitters park. Maybe he just started pulling everything . I haven't bothered to look at his spray chart on his HR's.

Edited November 2, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

Navarro will turn 30 in Feb. He's a hard guy to figure out because he looked great in 2008 with the Rays (Caulfield should love that )when he was pretty much a full time catcher and hit very good against RH's. Didn't show much power then so I don't know what got into him last year unless it was just Wrigley Field. But since the Cell is also a hitters park maybe that bodes well if his warning track power suddenly played well in a hitters park. Maybe he just started pulling everything . I haven't bothered to look at his spray chart on his HR's.

I think he's a career backup catcher. Chris Widger had a great year for us with the bats. Ramon Castro put up an .800+ OPS when he was 34 with us. When guys get 200 PA's, funny things happen - they get in a string where they hit a couple HR and are feeling good and that's enough to turn it into a great season for them. It's like being in a bullpen - a backup player can put together a string over limited number of appearances and turn it into a good year.