Sox likely to be quiet in free agency after Abreu

[Eminor3rd]

My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math.

 

If this is true, how could you possibly have a valid opinion about how to value Coco Crisp's defense?

[TaylorStSox]

If this is true, how could you possibly have a valid opinion about how to value Coco Crisp's defense?

When did I ever say anything about Coco Crisp's defense?

[TaylorStSox]

Well if you saw Ellsbury you'd be impressed.

 

I never said I wasn't impressed with his defense.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Ramirez almost had 50 XBHs last year and is a fantastic defender. I sure as hell don't want to pay him anywhere near that.

 

If the Sox want to spend the money on Ellsbury, I'd be happy. It's not my money. I still think its a foolish decision and it reminds me of something the Mets do. Rebuilding teams don't invest 1/6th of their payroll (optimistically) into risks like Ellsbury.

 

I think the difference we have here in our argument is I don't think this is a rebuilding team. Like bucket, one of our resident insiders, has said this team isn't punting on 2014.

 

Do I think they actually do add Ellsbury? No, I doubt it, but I think it'd be far from a foolish decision if they were to do it. Like you said in your post about defense you're not gonna change my mind on this so I guess it's pointless to continue arguing.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

And just because it was brought up about 30+ yr old OFers being worth $20M or not......

 

# of OF by season who put up a 4+ WAR after age 30....

 

2013 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB)

2012 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2011 - 7 OF (1 of them had 20+ SB)

2010 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2009 - 5 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2008 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB)

 

I chose a WAR of 4 because Fangraphs values a win close to $5M, so 4+ would get you around that $20M a year figure.

[caulfield12]

Yes, but they weren't worth the money at 33 or 34, plus Ellsbury tends to get hurt a lot. You probably get at least a year or 2 of an excellent player, but after that, the countdown until his contact is off the books probably is pretty big.

 

If the Red Sox don't give Salty a qualifying offer, there is no comp. of course we are talking about a guy they benched in the WS.

 

 

Wasn't that because Ross was a personal catcher for one of their starters?

 

He had a pretty miserable post-season, but unless the Red Sox can sign McCann...they're going to want to hold onto him. What other players out there would be a clear upgrade?

 

Then you have the Rangers, the Yankees, the Braves, White Sox, there are quite a few teams out there looking for catching all circling around the same 2-3 guys.

Edited November 2, 2013 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

When did I ever say anything about Coco Crisp's defense?

 

Someone made an argument that Coco Crisp has provided substantial value into his mid thirties, and you dismissed it because of defensive metrics, which is dodging the question. Are you saying Coco Crisp HASN'T provided substantial value into his mid-thirties? How would you know?

[TaylorStSox]

I think the difference we have here in our argument is I don't think this is a rebuilding team. Like bucket, one of our resident insiders, has said this team isn't punting on 2014.

 

Do I think they actually do add Ellsbury? No, I doubt it, but I think it'd be far from a foolish decision if they were to do it. Like you said in your post about defense you're not gonna change my mind on this so I guess it's pointless to continue arguing.

Well, I hope you and bucket are wrong. As this team is currently built, they're really, really bad at winning baseball games.

[TaylorStSox]

Someone made an argument that Coco Crisp has provided substantial value into his mid thirties, and you dismissed it because of defensive metrics, which is dodging the question. Are you saying Coco Crisp HASN'T provided substantial value into his mid-thirties? How would you know?

I never said that.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I never said I wasn't impressed with his defense.

 

Ok great. We are just telling you he has more to his game than just speed. He is a great defender, he HAS power (32 HR in 2011), he runs the bases well, he gets on base at a decent clip, he doesn't strike out a lot, he walks some. I just have no idea how his arm is, I don't know if I recall if it was good or bad or average.

 

Basically he has a lot more tools than just speed, so even if he is only able to steal 20-30 bases in a few years instead of the 50-70 he has in the past, he can supplement value from other parts of his game.

[Eminor3rd]

And just because it was brought up about 30+ yr old OFers being worth $20M or not......

 

# of OF by season who put up a 4+ WAR after age 30....

 

2013 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB)

2012 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2011 - 7 OF (1 of them had 20+ SB)

2010 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2009 - 5 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB)

2008 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB)

 

I chose a WAR of 4 because Fangraphs values a win close to $5M, so 4+ would get you around that $20M a year figure.

 

Just a minor qualm I have with the bolded statement. It's not really accurate to say "Fangraphs values a win at $5m," because that implies that there is a sabermetric formula for measure a win in dollars. This isn't true. Fangraphs has simply measured what teams pay on the open market per WAR. In free agency, teams pay $5m per WAR for players, on average. So that's what is meant when people use that figure to talk about if a player has been "worth" his contract.

[Dick Allen]

Wasn't that because Ross was a personal catcher for one of their starters?

 

He had a pretty miserable post-season, but unless the Red Sox can sign McCann...they're going to want to hold onto him. What other players out there would be a clear upgrade?

 

Then you have the Rangers, the Yankees, the Braves, White Sox, there are quite a few teams out there looking for catching all circling around the same 2-3 guys.

He played 2 of the 6 games, none of the last 3. I doubt they want to pay him very much.

[Eminor3rd]

I never said that.

 

So what is your response to that statement. Do you admit that you're wrong that speedy centerfielders never provide value into their mid thirties?

[TaylorStSox]

Ok great. We are just telling you he has more to his game than just speed. He is a great defender, he HAS power (32 HR in 2011), he runs the bases well, he gets on base at a decent clip, he doesn't strike out a lot, he walks some. I just have no idea how his arm is, I don't know if I recall if it was good or bad or average.

 

Basically he has a lot more tools than just speed, so even if he is only able to steal 20-30 bases in a few years instead of the 50-70 he has in the past, he can supplement value from other parts of his game.

 

Yet, speed is the catalyst that takes him from good to great player. Due to that, he's too much of a risk.

 

I don't want to pay anybody $20M a year until we know more about the young foundation players. There are too many question marks to add that type of an investment in a player over 30.

[TaylorStSox]

So what is your response to that statement. Do you admit that you're wrong that speedy centerfielders never provide value into their mid thirties?

 

 

No, speedy OF's that are over 30 aren't worth $20M a year unless their name is Rickey Henderson, especially for this Sox team. I've already said that about 20 different times in this thread.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Yet, speed is the catalyst that takes him from good to great player. Due to that, he's too much of a risk.

 

I don't want to pay anybody $20M a year until we know more about the young foundation players. There are too many question marks to add that type of an investment in a player over 30.

 

I don't want to pay him $20M a year either, but that's just because I don't really want to pay ANYONE $20M a year. If I ever reach my goal of working in a front office, it will probably have to be with someone like Oakland. Hah.

[caulfield12]

The Red Sox took advantage of last August's salary purge to add middle-market free agents like Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara — all key contributors to the World Series championship. As he looks to this offseason, general manager Ben Cherington will need to replace some big parts of the '13 team — including center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury — without making the free agent mistakes of the past.

"To be in this position, given where we've come from, reflecting back a year ago at this time, there's been a lot that's happened in 13 months," manager John Farrell said after the game.

 

"Ben Cherington deserves all the credit in the world for what he has done for this roster. To come in and see the energy and the commitment that the (players) had, the buying into a team concept every single day, and the one thing that really stands out more than anything is just their overall will to win. And that was no more evident than in this entire postseason."

 

The Red Sox were still smarting from their 2011 collapse when they traded Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and more than $250 million in future salaries to the Los Angeles Dodgers last August. Although the team finished in last place, with the franchise's worst record in almost half a century, the rebuilding had already begun.

 

Instead of showering money on the biggest names to replace the high-priced talent that had departed, Cherington opted to take smaller risks on mid-range players.

 

It paid off with Uehara, the team's third or fourth choice as closer, winning the AL championship series MVP and closing out the last three wins in the World Series. It paid off with Victorino, who hit a game-winning grand slam in the ALCS and a three-run double in the Series clincher. And it paid off with Napoli, who had a three-run double in Game 1, and Gomes, whose three-run homer won Game 4.

boston.com

 

Let's face it, if none of our homegrown players like Courtney Hawkins become superstars, it's going to be almost impossible to win.

 

Boston already had a great core with Ortiz, Ellsbury, Lester and Pedroia...and young emerging talent in Bogaerts and Middlebrooks (yes, I know he struggled but he's still getting one more year to prove himself at 3B/1B) that allowed them to deal Iglesias to the Tigers.

 

We don't have anyone comparable to those four guys, other than Chris Sale.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Just a minor qualm I have with the bolded statement. It's not really accurate to say "Fangraphs values a win at $5m," because that implies that there is a sabermetric formula for measure a win in dollars. This isn't true. Fangraphs has simply measured what teams pay on the open market per WAR. In free agency, teams pay $5m per WAR for players, on average. So that's what is meant when people use that figure to talk about if a player has been "worth" his contract.

 

Ok, I see your point, but we wouldn't know what GMs are paying per win if Fangraphs didn't have the formula in place to begin with. So I don't really know which would is more true than the other since they go hand in hand.

[Marty34]

You keep adding pieces that will give you long term success. A 30 year old, injury prone, $20M a year speedster isn't one of those pieces IMO.

 

This is absolutely true.

 

It would be the very rare instance that I'd be for dealing with Boras' free agents. He uses protracted negotiations to gain leverage, telling teams they are still in the bidding for his client as every other free agent is snapped up. It then becomes either you get the Boras client or you get nothing, just what he wants.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Marty34

[greg775]

Has anybody said Sox will be involved in Ellsbury sweepstakes? I don't see it. Too much money for the Sox to spend on one player.

I say give Granderson 8 mill a year; AJP 4 million and trade Viciedo and Beckham and Santiago and see if we can upgrade another position, too. We're still a last place team as it stands. Must change a lot more.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Well, I hope you and bucket are wrong. As this team is currently built, they're really, really bad at winning baseball games.

 

And I'll just leave it at that I think if you upgrade 3+ offensive positions to a team that lost 55 games by 2 runs or less that I don't think the team will be really bad at winning ball games. A good table setter, like Ellsbury, does a lot to this team, it adds a ripple effect. Batting Lexi behind Ellsbury makes Lexi better(50 points higher with runners on the last 3 years). Same can be said for Dunn who has an OPS 134 points higher with runners on. Then you throw in Abreu over last years Konerko, and an upgrade at catcher to go along with all the guys you think will improve and the offense becomes much, much more potent.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

To win the World Series, you need a combination of great pitching, good/solid position players and timing. I think our pitching is close to be good enough to get us into the playoffs and have a run. However, when I look at our positions players, I don't see many good/solid players. We'll know more by next year. Keep building, keep adding piece by piece. Get close and then hit a home run in FA to get you over the top. We're at least a year or 2 away from that.

[ChiSox59]

Zunino or buy low on Jesus Montero from the Mariners? D'Arnaud from the Mets? Those are all I can think of. But I don't see them giving them up

 

As others have said, Montero isn't catching much longer. He is atrocious behind the dish. I'd still have some interest in bringing him in, but where's he gonna play? Not a great fit. Zunino and D'Arnaud aren't going anywhere. Someone mentioned Jason Casto - now, that would be a move I could get on board with, and I'd probably trade Quintana to get him and Oberholtzer as a LHP out the pen.

 

 

You're stuck in what guys did in the past. Ellsbury doesn't win the Sox anything, he might get them back to 80 wins. Money wasted.

 

Yikes. A healthy Ellsbury would totally change the complexion of the SOX in a good way. Hell, if I had Ellsbury, I would still keep De Aza and get him some starts all over the OF. There is no doubt that a 7 year $140M contract would be hampering to the SOX at some point, but I think this team has a chance:

 

Ellsbury CF

Semien 2B

Abreu 1B

Dunn DH

Garcia RF

Jason Castro C

Gillaspie / Keppinger 3B

Viciedo LF

Ramirez SS

 

BN: De Aza, L. Garcia, Flowers.

 

Sale

J. Johnson (1 year deal $8M, option for $10M)

Santiago

E. Johnson

Danks

 

Add a veteran arm to the pen, and I like it. That team has a chance to compete next year below $120M.

 

This is a team that lost 55 games by 2 runs or less(36 by 1 run, most in the majors), yes, the record looks bad on paper but it's not like they were consistently getting blown out. If you make 3 offensive upgrades there's no reason they shouldn't be at least closer to competing in 2014.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games they lost were caused by errors? You upgrade CF defensively with Ellsbury and that helps a lot.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games were caused by having a middle of the order bat that had a .310 slugging% vs RHP(what we mainly faced)? You hope you upgraded that with Abreu over PK.

 

How many of those 1-2 run games were caused by having a Catcher platoon that hit in the .200s with an OBP around .220 and defensively wasn't very good to boot? An upgrade there helps the team a lot as well.

 

Ding, ding, ding. +1,000

Edited November 2, 2013 by ChiSox59

[caulfield12]

Has anybody said Sox will be involved in Ellsbury sweepstakes? I don't see it. Too much money for the Sox to spend on one player.

I say give Granderson 8 mill a year; AJP 4 million and trade Viciedo and Beckham and Santiago and see if we can upgrade another position, too. We're still a last place team as it stands. Must change a lot more.

 

 

Granderson's headed for 3 years $42-45 or 4/$48.

 

There's no way they can sign him for $8 million for one season.

 

AJ's going to get more than that...and he'll probably be looking for a one year deal with an option.

 

 

Trading Viciedo and Beckham won't accomplish much. Who do you want to play in the OF? Jordan Danks? Jared Mitchell? Thompson? Because you're not going to be able to get Granderson unless those salary numbers were from a decade ago.

 

Even AJ will be the 3rd or 4th FA option after McCann and Saltalamacchia.

 

 

I'm not understanding why everyone wants to trade Santiago unless we're getting a young starting 3B or C.

[Y2Jimmy0]

This thread is funny.

 

1. The Sox will not be signing Ellsbury or someone else that costs the team a 2nd round draft pick.

2. A.J. Pierzynski is not coming back.

3. I work with Curtis Granderson's college roommate and he says that White Sox would be interested in a short term deal (2 years). Yankees will most likely give him a QO taking him off the table for the Sox as well.

 

 

Moves like that just don't make business sense for the White Sox right now. The Sox need to draft and develop the next Jacoby Ellsbury rather than paying the actual Jacoby Ellsbury money for past performance. It's flawed logic. Let someone else do that.