MLBTR Top 50 Free Agent Predictions

[southsider2k5]

Since the catch-all was brutally executed, I guess I will post this in here. Salty was NOT offered a qualifying offer.

 

Gaged.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

If the White Sox spend that much on Salty, it will soon be regrettable.

Agreed. If they can get him for 4/25 or 4/28 that would be good, but someone else will overpay. If they're going to overpay for a Catcher I'd rather it be McCann.

 

Catcher is the Sox number one need right now and they also need a legit middle of the order LH bat so they should at least make a run at McCann. If they don't sign him, I hope they can make a blockbuster deal for a stud Catcher.

[nickofypres]

Midnight eastern time.

 

Cool. Thanks.

[Jake]

I think if we signed AJ to a 2 year deal instead of Salty to a 4 year deal, we're probably in a lot better position in two years

[Balta1701]

I think if we signed AJ to a 2 year deal instead of Salty to a 4 year deal, we're probably in a lot better position in two years

Again, why?

 

How does it make sense for the white sox to sign a 1-2 year stopgap if they don't obviously have a guy in the minors coming up in 1-2 years at that spot?

 

AJ makes sense for this team if they're looking to compete next year. If they are going to sign Ellsbury or something like that fine. To rebuild, the sox would be better off long term giving Phegley that playing time. If he has a 5% chance of becoming a solid player in 2 years...Pierzynski would have a 0% chance of being this teams long term catcher in 2 years. If Phegley has a 1% chance of becoming a long term option that still is a better chance than AJ.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I think if we signed AJ to a 2 year deal instead of Salty to a 4 year deal, we're probably in a lot better position in two years

I'd rather see the Sox sign Salty to a 4 year deal if it were for something like $6M or $7M per year, but if he's going to cost $36M for four years the Sox would be better off signing AJ for something like 2yrs./$12M - $14M.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'd rather see the Sox sign Salty to a 4 year deal if it were for something like $6M or $7M per year, but if he's going to cost $36M for four years the Sox would be better off signing AJ for something like 2yrs./$12M - $14M.

Signing a 37 year old catcher to a multi-year deal seems like a bad idea to me.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Signing a 37 year old catcher to a multi-year deal seems like a bad idea to me.

I'd prefer they sign McCann or trade for a good young Catcher. I'd be fine with Salty @ 4/$28M max, but if he's going to cost 4/$36M they'd be better off with AJ at 2/$12M.

[oldsox]

Salty had a bad week in WS defensively. Makes me wonder.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Not that I have anything against Salty, but I think if the Sox sign him we are all going to be let down by the season that he has. He is a nice complimentary piece but is not the game changer that the Sox need. If the Sox were to also sign Ellsbury or Granderson, then a Salty signing makes sense, but if not then they should really target McCann.

[caulfield12]

Developing a catcher isn't an easy thing to do, obviously.

 

I went through the Top 100 prospects from 2011/12/13 and here's the list of catchers included.

 

Zunino

d'Arnaud

Gary Sanchez

Austin Hedges

Jesus Montero

D. Mesoroco

Y. Grandal

B. Swihart

Wilin Rosario

Tony Sanchez

Derek Norris

Wilson Ramos

Austin Romine

[Dick Allen]

Salty had a bad week in WS defensively. Makes me wonder.

His standard defensive numbers were almost identical to AJP in 2013. I think AJ caught 1 more inning. They both had the same number of passed balls, wild pitches when they were catching, and runners caught stealing. Salty had a few more errors, but unless you actually see the errors, catcher errors are often someone else's fault, or bad luck. There were 40 more SB against Salty than AJ, although Salty had a slightly better defensive WAR. Maybe he was framing pitches better or something, but if you didn't like AJP defensively, and think of the horror on this board coming into 2012 when the Sox owed him $6 million, I can't see how you are going to like Salty defensively.

[NorthSideSox72]

Just so people have the background color here... The White Sox do not have an a catching prospect that appears anywhere near major league ready. In fact, even in a relatively thin farm system, the Sox probably won't even have a catcher in their Top 25 come January.

 

Here are the catchers in the system that are getting playing time:

 

--Miguel Gonzalez will be the starter at AAA most likely (or split time with one of Phegley/Flowers if they get crowded down). He was once somewhat highly considered, and he supposedly is very good defensively... but he hasn't put up an OPS higher than .675 in a full season since 2009. He'll be only 23 in 2014 so he's still on the radar, but he doesn't look like a major league starter.

 

--Mike Blanke was drafted as an offense-first catcher in 2010, but he hasn't hit anything since his draft year at Great Falls. .642 OPS last year at AA, while splitting time (91 games), and will be 25 in 2014. He's likely a minors bench guy in 2014.

 

--Kevan Smith put up a nice .834 OPS in A+ this year, he's generally hit well for a catcher, and his defense is improving. However, he's going to turn 26 next year, when he's likely to be at AA. He may be the top catching prospect in the system right now (though that is debateable), but he likely just misses the T25 cut.

 

--Sammy Ayala and Jose Barraza were both drafted as high schoolers in 2012 and each have tools, but even if one of them works out well, they are 3+ years away from the majors. Barraza also missed this year of play due to injury.

 

--There were 2-3 catchers from the 2013 class as well, but none of them really stuck out.

 

Basically, there are few if any catchers who look likely to be major leaguers. So whatever you do at catcher, you are better off getting someone for at least 3 years (if going the free agent or trade route). If not, then just run Flowers and Phegley out there again and see which looks like a potential starter.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Could be entirely possible the Sox sign 2 catchers with the idea of giving Phegley more time at AAA and non tendering Flowers .

[Balta1701]

Could be entirely possible the Sox sign 2 catchers with the idea of giving Phegley more time at AAA and non tendering Flowers .

More time at AAA isn't going to change things for Phegley. He's 25 already, he destroyed AAA last year, first arrived there in 2011, and has nearly 800 PAs at AAA. Either he's going to produce in the bigs or he isn't, there's zero sense in which he was rushed.

 

if they sign 2 catchers, then Phegley is a DFA candidate because they'd rather have the roster spot.

[Jake]

Again, why?

 

How does it make sense for the white sox to sign a 1-2 year stopgap if they don't obviously have a guy in the minors coming up in 1-2 years at that spot?

 

AJ makes sense for this team if they're looking to compete next year. If they are going to sign Ellsbury or something like that fine. To rebuild, the sox would be better off long term giving Phegley that playing time. If he has a 5% chance of becoming a solid player in 2 years...Pierzynski would have a 0% chance of being this teams long term catcher in 2 years. If Phegley has a 1% chance of becoming a long term option that still is a better chance than AJ.

 

The main thing is because:

1. Whether Phegley/Flowers deserve any developmental time is highly debatable.

2. There is nobody else that deserves that developmental time in our organization.

3. AJ or similar player would provide a substantial marginal gain over the other options and has a decent chance to outproduce Saltalamacchia.

4. AJ would be cheap.

5. You get 2 years to find the team's next catcher. If someone appealing reaches FA a year from now, you can make a move on that player.

6. Saltalamacchia has spent about 4-6 months of his life as a player that looks like he deserves a 4 year contract approaching $10/year value

7. Salty is a low OBP, extremely high K player that seems contrary to organizational goals.

 

So, I find myself asking the question: would I rather have 2 years and $20 million remaining on a contract for Saltalamacchia, who will be a .240/.290/.450 bat on the wrong side of 30 in 2 years if he still at all serviceable....or would I rather say goodbye to a vet like AJ who will probably provide similar value at far less price and have the expectation of sharing time with any hotshot young guys throughout his stay?

 

Hahn wants long-term guys, for sure. He keeps saying that. Do you even want the good version of Salty long term at top market dollar? I'm not sure if I do. I'd like to have a non-horrible, league-worst catcher over the next couple years, but there are limits to the amount I will invest to do that.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Jake

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

In regards to acquiring a catcher this offseason: Jason Castro or bust.

 

He hits lefthanded, he Sabr-friendly and the Sox can trade from pitching depth with a team that needs pitching.

 

He is arbitration eligible after this season, so he will start to get relatively expensive.

 

Probably a pipedream, but why not think big instead of just signing the best available free agent?

[Balta1701]

The main thing is because:

1. Whether Phegley/Flowers deserve any developmental time is highly debatable.

2. There is nobody else that deserves that developmental time in our organization.

3. AJ or similar player would provide a substantial marginal gain over the other options and has a decent chance to outproduce Saltalamacchia.

4. AJ would be cheap.

5. You get 2 years to find the team's next catcher. If someone appealing reaches FA a year from now, you can make a move on that player.

6. Saltalamacchia has spent about 4-6 months of his life as a player that looks like he deserves a 4 year contract approaching $10/year value

7. Salty is a low OBP, extremely high K player that seems contrary to organizational goals.

1-2. Correct. However, that only matters if your goal is to win in 2014. If not, then they deserve it more than anyone else we currently have.

 

3. While this is true, it only matters if your goal is to win in 2014. If not, then giving time to AJ that could be given to anyone with a 1% chance of developing into a long term option is a mistake.

 

4. Yes, but not as cheap as "not signing anyone".

 

5. But you also reduce the chances of actually having anyone in your system turn into your next catcher by having AJ in the way, and frankly you make it harder to find a long-term option by trade or FA because you already have a starter int he way you can't move.

 

6-7. I agree.

 

 

AJ Pierzynski is not a long-term option, and signing a short-term option makes it harder to find a long-term option unless our goal is to field a competitive team in 2014.

[Jake]

I think this coming year is a transitional year or whatever you may want to call it, but I also think that Hahn isn't willing to go into the year with a position like catcher unaddressed. If, as we think, they don't see much room for improvement from what was literally league worst from those two...I think he'll pursue short term options. That is, he'll pursue short-term options if he doesn't like any of the long-term ones. No reason to be horrible for s***s and giggles. You're not going to give a guy like AJ an amount of money that will make you think twice and at his age, you'll want to give him more rest anyway. I don't necessarily believe that having him or someone similar around precludes seeking a young, long-term replacement

[Balta1701]

I think this coming year is a transitional year or whatever you may want to call it, but I also think that Hahn isn't willing to go into the year with a position like catcher unaddressed. If, as we think, they don't see much room for improvement from what was literally league worst from those two...I think he'll pursue short term options. That is, he'll pursue short-term options if he doesn't like any of the long-term ones. No reason to be horrible for s***s and giggles. You're not going to give a guy like AJ an amount of money that will make you think twice and at his age, you'll want to give him more rest anyway. I don't necessarily believe that having him or someone similar around precludes seeking a young, long-term replacement

If he wants to pursue a short-term option, either it better be for an absolute minimal salary (low enough that the guy could be traded to a team whose backup catcher gets hurt), or he better put a team around that catcher who can compete because it makes no sense to give a catcher a solid salary and then put a team out there you're not confident in.

 

Is AJ going to be available for under $2 million? Then I'll talk. If we're talking $5 million, that's way too much to waste on this season unless we're spending a lot of money elsewhere.

[Eminor3rd]

I think this coming year is a transitional year or whatever you may want to call it, but I also think that Hahn isn't willing to go into the year with a position like catcher unaddressed. If, as we think, they don't see much room for improvement from what was literally league worst from those two...I think he'll pursue short term options. That is, he'll pursue short-term options if he doesn't like any of the long-term ones. No reason to be horrible for s***s and giggles. You're not going to give a guy like AJ an amount of money that will make you think twice and at his age, you'll want to give him more rest anyway. I don't necessarily believe that having him or someone similar around precludes seeking a young, long-term replacement

 

They'll get a catcher somewhere. The only question is if it's going to be someone like Salty or someone like Brayan Pena, Kurt Suzuki, or Geovany Soto. I'm guessing McCann is almost a 0% chance at this point.

[Dick Allen]

AJ Pierzynski is not a long-term option, and signing a short-term option makes it harder to find a long-term option unless our goal is to field a competitive team in 2014.

 

It really doesn't unless the long term solution is major league ready and in house, and what is wrong with trying to win in 2014?

 

Granted, if every player plays at the level they did in 2013, there is zero chance, but I think there is a decent chance of improvement from a lot of people. A couple of offensive upgrades, a few less boneheaded decisions on the basepaths and in the field, the team could be very competitive.

 

I don't think they will sign AJ myself, but I would much rather they signed him than anyone his price range or higher except for McCann. I also would look into the cheaper route. Someone has to catch. Flowers has shown he is a legit back up. Phegley is a hard guy to judge. Great offensive and defensive catchers are really hard to find. Maybe a placeholder is what is needed to buy some time to find one. Not all of Hahn's acquisitions are going to fit into a 4 or 5 year plan. That is impossible.

[Jake]

FWIW, I think we probably burned a bridge with AJ. Signing him to a one or two year deal at $3 million per would be just fine with me. Maybe kick it up to $4 for just one season.

[Eminor3rd]

Right now, out of all of the FA, AJ Pierzynski is the best option we have.

 

Out of all FA, AJ might be the WORST option. I can think of NO reason we wouldn't get someone who at least has a CHANCE of becoming a long-term option, even if it's a reclamation project.