2014 Cubs Catch-All Thread

[IlliniKrush]

It is absolutely for the fans. They have generated more buzz in the last week than they have in years. If it were about the rebuild, these guys wouldn't be up until Sept 1 at the earliest, but more like the Super2 deadline in mid-June next year to maximize control, and the window they are trying to open with the young talent to all come together. Knocking a year off of guys control time shortens that window and makes the rebuild harder.

The rebuild isn't for the fans, it's to win. If the whole "showing progress" was for the fans, like I said, this rebuild would have never happened. They aren't going to take so long with a rebuild and then just say "let's f*** up this guy's development, the fans deserve to see him woo." Right or wrong, they made a move based on his development.

 

Their logic on Sep 1 and not waiting was fine. They wanted him to get a bunch of at bats, not just a month, not just a cup of coffee. If he was going to come up Sep 1 anyway, this is for more development.

 

Like fathom said, if they ahead of where they thought they'd be at this point, they start moving the guys up. You know there are going to be growing pains, playing him 2 months this year and then next year is fine.

 

Plus, you see how he adjusts and you see if you slot him somewhere, want to move him, etc.

 

You're looking at a long window coming, not a 1 year window. They can't wait and bring up every guy at the same time.

[caulfield12]

Epstein and Hoyer have said they want players to get a full season at each level.

 

That timeline has been met with Baez, between 2013 and 2014.

 

Moving Soler up to the big leagues would be ahead of schedule, but he'd probably start next year at Iowa going with that "get a full year of success in at each level" theory. (Hitting .370 with 11 homers in 135 AB's on the season, at .289 now with the I-Cubs).

 

 

At any rate, these Cubs' prospects are coming up with pressure to perform, but not in the same way White Sox hitters were normally promoted into the heart of pennant races and had to perform or find themselves on the bench, demoted to traded.

 

Think of how long it took Crede and Rowand to break in for this reason. Then there was Brian Anderson pressured to hit in 2006, Fields in 2007 (one year the pressure was lower, but then in 2008 it fell apart), Beckham in 2009 being moved from 2B to 3B...Borchard would be another example, where he never really got 3-4 consecutive months at the big league level (see Tyler Flowers and how many opportunities he's gotten).

 

Or Brandon McCarthy and Daniel Hudson not getting extended looks in a big league rotation.

Edited August 8, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

The rebuild isn't for the fans, it's to win. If the whole "showing progress" was for the fans, like I said, this rebuild would have never happened. They aren't going to take so long with a rebuild and then just say "let's f*** up this guy's development, the fans deserve to see him woo." Right or wrong, they made a move based on his development.

 

Their logic on Sep 1 and not waiting was fine. They wanted him to get a bunch of at bats, not just a month, not just a cup of coffee. If he was going to come up Sep 1 anyway, this is for more development.

 

Like fathom said, if they ahead of where they thought they'd be at this point, they start moving the guys up. You know there are going to be growing pains, playing him 2 months this year and then next year is fine.

 

Plus, you see how he adjusts and you see if you slot him somewhere, want to move him, etc.

 

You're looking at a long window coming, not a 1 year window. They can't wait and bring up every guy at the same time.

 

The big assumption there is that nothing changed since the day that they started the rebuild. One thing did change. The Cubs are now in their 6th straight season of falling attendance. With the amount of debt that ownership took to buy the team, and then looking at the extra money they are wanting to pump into Wrigley for their remodel, it is pretty easy to see a need to sell more ticket and generate some excitement before 2015. If this was purely about the rebuild and trying to put together the best possible window to succeed, Baez wouldn't be here today.

 

If they were really looking to succeed short term, they wouldn't have dumped their last top line pitcher for more prospects which push the timeline back.

[IlliniKrush]

The big assumption there is that nothing changed since the day that they started the rebuild. One thing did change. The Cubs are now in their 6th straight season of falling attendance. With the amount of debt that ownership took to buy the team, and then looking at the extra money they are wanting to pump into Wrigley for their remodel, it is pretty easy to see a need to sell more ticket and generate some excitement before 2015. If this was purely about the rebuild and trying to put together the best possible window to succeed, Baez wouldn't be here today.

 

If they were really looking to succeed short term, they wouldn't have dumped their last top line pitcher for more prospects which push the timeline back.

They don't care about falling attendance, because as soon as they are even halfway decent, hello sellouts. They knew going in that it would take a while, and that attendance would fall. It's no surprise.

 

Baez is up to continue his development, as they feel he is ready to start that process.

 

And they aren't looking to succeed short term, if you mean next year. He had one year left on his contract. They got assets for someone they weren't going to compete with next year, and either weren't going to sign after that, or will have the ability to sign him (or someone better) in 2016 anyway. It made perfect sense. It would have been stupid not to trade him.

 

Therefore, the timeline went absolutely nowhere by trading him.

[caulfield12]

The big assumption there is that nothing changed since the day that they started the rebuild. One thing did change. The Cubs are now in their 6th straight season of falling attendance. With the amount of debt that ownership took to buy the team, and then looking at the extra money they are wanting to pump into Wrigley for their remodel, it is pretty easy to see a need to sell more ticket and generate some excitement before 2015. If this was purely about the rebuild and trying to put together the best possible window to succeed, Baez wouldn't be here today.

 

If they were really looking to succeed short term, they wouldn't have dumped their last top line pitcher for more prospects which push the timeline back.

 

How? They didn't plan to offer Samardzija "ace" money for beyond 2015, and they weren't expecting to compete next year. It's the same reason the Rays traded (some would say dumped) Price for a lesser return...

 

If anything, it now gives them a HUGE trading chip in either Baez or Addison Russell (900+ OPS in AA) that they didn't have, along with a possible starting OF in Billy McKinney, another top Oakland draft choice.

 

Then there's the possibility they can bring either Hammel, Samardzija or Lester (in Epstein's RED SOX way of thinking) back into the fold.

 

 

 

The White Sox have been declining in attendance for eight seasons in a row, too.

 

We're not far off the point where the city/state subsidies will start kicking in to keep the White Sox from going into the red on attendance. That would be yet another public relations disaster.

Edited August 8, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

They don't care about falling attendance, because as soon as they are even halfway decent, hello sellouts. They knew going in that it would take a while, and that attendance would fall. It's no surprise.

 

Baez is up to continue his development, as they feel he is ready to start that process.

 

And they aren't looking to succeed short term, if you mean next year. He had one year left on his contract. They got assets for someone they weren't going to compete with next year, and either weren't going to sign after that, or will have the ability to sign him (or someone better) in 2016 anyway. It made perfect sense. It would have been stupid not to trade him.

 

Therefore, the timeline went absolutely nowhere by trading him.

 

So if the timeline isn't for years, why start the Baez clock now? That just knocks time off of the control window you have for him.

[caulfield12]

We'll go back to 2008, because 2006 would paint an even more depressing picture for the Sox.

 

 

Cubs....3,300,000

White Sox....2,500,000

 

2014 paces

 

Cubs...2,650,000 (20% decrease from 2008)

White Sox....1,724,166 (31% decrease from 2008)

 

 

The Cubs have actually lost fewer fans, and certainly a much lower percentage of fans.

 

If you go back to 2006, it's a 41.6% loss, which is mind-blowing. That's more than double the Cubs' loss percentage-wise, and that's with the Cubs in their 4th year of rebuilding already, not first or second like the Sox.

 

And those numbers can be turned around in a heartbeat, unlike with the White Sox, where only a deep playoff run would set them up for 2-2.25 million in attendance again.

Edited August 8, 2014 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

We'll go back to 2008, because 2006 would paint an even more depressing picture for the Sox.

 

 

Cubs....3,300,000

White Sox....2,500,000

 

2014 paces

 

Cubs...2,650,000 (20% decrease from 2008)

White Sox....1,724,166 (31% decrease from 2008)

 

 

The Cubs have actually lost fewer fans, and certainly a much lower percentage of fans.

 

If you go back to 2006, it's a 41.6% loss, which is mind-blowing. That's more than double the Cubs' loss percentage-wise, and that's with the Cubs in their 4th year of rebuilding already, not first or second like the Sox.

 

And those numbers can be turned around in a heartbeat, unlike with the White Sox, where only a deep playoff run would set them up for 2-2.25 million in attendance again.

 

What's so depressing about this? The Cubs have more fans and along with Wrigley Field are more appealing to the casual fan that the Sox are. The sky is also blue.

[IlliniKrush]

So if the timeline isn't for years, why start the Baez clock now? That just knocks time off of the control window you have for him.

I get what you are saying, but at some point you also have to do what you feel is right for his development. You knew guys weren't going to arrive at the same time anyway based on age and development.

 

Once this gets going, the Cubs aren't going to be too worried if his clock is a bit ahead of some others, and they'll have money.

[caulfield12]

Cubs have officially added Jacob Turner for two minor leaguers...

 

Still has his velocity, according to Epstein, claims they've had good luck with turning around struggling pitchers and that the expedited path that Turner had in his contract forced him up to the majors too early and there are some issues they can iron out to get him turned around.

[Balta1701]

I get what you are saying, but at some point you also have to do what you feel is right for his development. You knew guys weren't going to arrive at the same time anyway based on age and development.

 

Once this gets going, the Cubs aren't going to be too worried if his clock is a bit ahead of some others, and they'll have money.

I can very easily make the case for keeping Baez in AAA longer. He got off to a terrible start this year and has only had a fairly brief hot stint, and all the while his strikeout totals have still been Tyler Flowers bad.

[caulfield12]

I can very easily make the case for keeping Baez in AAA longer. He got off to a terrible start this year and has only had a fairly brief hot stint, and all the while his strikeout totals have still been Tyler Flowers bad.

 

 

So far the K rate is 25%.

 

Of course, the OPS is 1.188. He'll need 150 at-bats before any conclusions can begin to be drawn about his readiness. Even then, some will argue he's facing some AAA/AA call-ups for non-contending teams in September.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

So far the K rate is 25%.

 

Of course, the OPS is 1.188. He'll need 150 at-bats before any conclusions can begin to be drawn about his readiness. Even then, some will argue he's facing some AAA/AA call-ups for non-contending teams in September.

Up to 37% now. He's going to make a run at Flowers' 38% this year. No walks in 19 ABs. He better slug .450+, otherwise I foresee Cubs' fans getting fed up with his act rather quickly. Even at .475, he's going to have a tough time posting an OPS of better than .800 because I don't see him putting together an OBP of greater than .325 (I'd say he's closer to .280-.300, at least for the next few years)

[caulfield12]

Up to 37% now. He's going to make a run at Flowers' 38% this year. No walks in 19 ABs. He better slug .450+, otherwise I foresee Cubs' fans getting fed up with his act rather quickly. Even at .475, he's going to have a tough time posting an OPS of better than .800 because I don't see him putting together an OBP of greater than .325 (I'd say he's closer to .280-.300, at least for the next few years)

 

 

Minor league totals, 88 BB's and 350 K's in 1212 AB's.

 

That's around 27% In 600 AB's, it would be 175ish, and that's not adjusting for the major league level pitching, so that would put him around 200-225 K's.

 

You'd like to see a power hitter at BB/2K or BB/3K, ideally.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/pro...p?P=javier-baez

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Minor league totals, 88 BB's and 350 K's in 1212 AB's.

 

That's around 27% In 600 AB's, it would be 175ish, and that's not adjusting for the major league level pitching, so that would put him around 200-225 K's.

 

You'd like to see a power hitter at BB/2K or BB/3K, ideally.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/pro...p?P=javier-baez

Adam dunn struck out in 22.4% of his minor league ABs. Yea, big league pitching is much tougher...I wouldn't be surprised if that 27% turns into 35% in the bigs

[Balta1701]

So far the K rate is 25%.

 

Of course, the OPS is 1.188. He'll need 150 at-bats before any conclusions can begin to be drawn about his readiness. Even then, some will argue he's facing some AAA/AA call-ups for non-contending teams in September.

 

 

Up to 37% now. He's going to make a run at Flowers' 38% this year. No walks in 19 ABs. He better slug .450+, otherwise I foresee Cubs' fans getting fed up with his act rather quickly. Even at .475, he's going to have a tough time posting an OPS of better than .800 because I don't see him putting together an OBP of greater than .325 (I'd say he's closer to .280-.300, at least for the next few years)

Yeah, you should have waited until the 4 strikeout game before noting how low his K-rate was.

[iamshack]

Lots of jealousy/envy in this thread

[caulfield12]

OTOH, Darwin Barney's low 600's OPS was so boring and predictable (offensively AND defensively) in the same way a Gordon Beckham season is...

 

No Cubs' fan wants to watch that, anymore than Sox fans want to continue watching Dunn/Beckham/DeAza/Konerko.

Edited August 9, 2014 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

OTOH, Darwin Barney's low 600's OPS was so boring and predictable (offensively AND defensively) in the same way a Gordon Beckham season is...

 

No Cubs' fan wants to watch that, anymore than Sox fans want to continue watching Dunn/Beckham/DeAza/Konerko.

No one expected Barney to be an all star, they do with Baez. Main reason sox fans have been riding gordon so hard. No one expected an average 2b, they expected Dustin pedroia. Cubs fans going to get pretty impatient if he hits .220 with 25 hr and 200 strikeouts the next 3 years. Even with all this potential offense, where's the frontline pitching needed to win? Best lineup in modern day baseball, 95 Indians, couldn't even win the World Series. 2 hof (thome and Murray), 1 would be hof if not for peds (manny), best hitter in the game that year (belle), and 8 guys that were all stars at some point in that era. All world pitching (braves starting staff) beat the all world offense. Goes without saying that you need both to win

[Y2Jimmy0]

Lots of jealousy/envy in this thread

 

 

Haha that's how I feel every time I read this thread. The White Sox would trade any prospect in the system other than Rodon for Baez. Not even a question.

[LittleHurt05]

Haha that's how I feel every time I read this thread. The White Sox would trade any prospect in the system other than Rodon for Baez. Not even a question.

 

Has anybody ever said differently?

[Balta1701]

Has anybody ever said differently?

You know? I really hesitate on Baez. The power is extremely legit but the flaws are very deep.

[caulfield12]

No one expected Barney to be an all star, they do with Baez. Main reason sox fans have been riding gordon so hard. No one expected an average 2b, they expected Dustin pedroia. Cubs fans going to get pretty impatient if he hits .220 with 25 hr and 200 strikeouts the next 3 years. Even with all this potential offense, where's the frontline pitching needed to win? Best lineup in modern day baseball, 95 Indians, couldn't even win the World Series. 2 hof (thome and Murray), 1 would be hof if not for peds (manny), best hitter in the game that year (belle), and 8 guys that were all stars at some point in that era. All world pitching (braves starting staff) beat the all world offense. Goes without saying that you need both to win

 

 

And the White Sox still have two huge holes in their rotation, even under the assumption that Rodon starts out as a 3.

 

 

The ONLY player they have to use as trade bait with any value to the rest of MLB is Alexei Ramirez, who just so happens to be our best defender, when we have one of the five worst defenses in baseball.

 

Besides, the easy rebuttal to that is the Braves winning only once in 14 years with all that Cy Young pitching, or the A's and the Twins.

Edited August 9, 2014 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

You know? I really hesitate on Baez. The power is extremely legit but the flaws are very deep.

 

Well I stand corrected, but I don't what non-Rodon Sox prospect you would prefer over him.

[Balta1701]

Well I stand corrected, but I don't what non-Rodon Sox prospect you would prefer over him.

Yeah, that's the problem, right now there's no extremely strong #2 in this org with that kind of tool. But it's not overwhelming like you'd think with most "top 10 prospects".

 

If Baez is a top 10 prospect in MLB then Rodon must be top 5 because there's no way on Earth I'd do that deal straight up.