2014 AL Central catch-all thread

[southsider2k5]

John Dewan ‏@FieldingBible 3m

 

Stat of the Day: The AL Central-leading @Royals have saved 28 runs on defense this year, while the @Tigers have been 39 runs below average.

[caulfield12]

They must have hated Fister to trade him for what they got.

 

 

https://www.numberfire.com/mlb/news/1474/wh...-never-heard-of

 

 

Fister actually had a higher WAR than David Price from 2011-2013...according to this.

 

At any rate, it seems the Tigers were unable to trust Fister to stay healthy (last year), that's one theory.

[southsider2k5]

Jason Beck ‏@beckjason 4m

 

Ausmus on Verlander: "There was no major structural damage. At this pt we don't expect him to go on the DL."

[southsider2k5]

Chris Iott ‏@Chris_Iott 5m

 

Tigers expect that Verlander will miss at least one start. Robbie Ray extremely likely to start Sunday in his place.

[southsider2k5]

Jason Beck ‏@beckjason 40m

 

MRI on Verlander found inflammation. At this point, reducing that is the major hurdle.

[caulfield12]

Hard to believe he's going to miss just one start and get his velocity back.

 

We'll see.

 

 

Royals down 3-0 early against Lester. Seems the end of their string is coming tonight, barring a miracle comeback and Jeremy Guthrie to return to his form when he was first acquired by KC.

Edited August 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[shysocks]

Royals acquired OF Josh Willingham from Minnesota. Didn't see it posted anywhere.

Good, that takes care of any qualifying offer concerns now that he changed teams. His path to the Sox is clear. I'll roll out the red carpet for ya Josh.

[caulfield12]

Good, that takes care of any qualifying offer concerns now that he changed teams. His path to the Sox is clear. I'll roll out the red carpet for ya Josh.

 

 

The problem is that Willingham's a terrible defensive outfielder coming off a down season and in the declining period of his career.

 

It's a gamble. If KW was good at one aspect of his job, it was identifying these "buy low" bargain acquisitions of veterans.

[LDF]

The problem is that Willingham's a terrible defensive outfielder coming off a down season and in the declining period of his career.

 

It's a gamble. If KW was good at one aspect of his job, it was identifying these "buy low" bargain acquisitions of veterans.

 

 

I am a little confuse here. Caulfield, earlier when I mention about the should invest in certain players, Melky

as an example, you mention that he was on the wrong side of 30 and not worth the investment. now you

are advocating on the Willingham who is 35. I am confuse with your logic.

 

no offense is intended, just lost.

[caulfield12]

I am a little confuse here. Caulfield, earlier when I mention about the should invest in certain players, Melky

as an example, you mention that he was on the wrong side of 30 and not worth the investment. now you

are advocating on the Willingham who is 35. I am confuse with your logic.

 

no offense is intended, just lost.

 

 

I'm not sure where in this post I'm advocating anything, exactly.

 

Just saying buyer beware, or caveat emptor.

 

That said, I would rather gamble of the equivalent of 3-4 Willingham's (players coming off down years but solid rebound candidates) than buying a Melky Cabrera at the height of his value (not to mention the PEDS background, which further complicates things).

 

We're not the type of franchise that can afford to have more than just a couple of bad long-term contracts at any one time (Dunn/Danks now).

 

Realistically, the only guy out there on the free agent market who's under 30 and fits in that "buy low" category is Colby Rasmus.

 

In the end, I firmly believe we DO NEED to have 2-3 experienced veterans who have playoff time on our roster to take that next step forward. It can't be automatically "he's older than 30, he can't be part of the long-term plan, etc." You simply can't find cost-controlled All-Star level players that are 26-29 without trading away every single prospect for a guy like Giancarlo Stanton. So my concerns with Cabrera are less about his specific age and more about buying him coming off a career season and then the PEDs suspension.

 

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...-025840860.html

Jarrod Dyson's flip after catching the final out in Monday's game as the Royals took over 1st place in the ALCD

Edited August 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Good, that takes care of any qualifying offer concerns now that he changed teams. His path to the Sox is clear. I'll roll out the red carpet for ya Josh.

 

Over his last 753 plate appearances, Willingham has put up a .209/.343/.381/.724 with a wRC+ of around 105. He's not an absolutely terrible hitter, but at this point in his career, he's best served hitting solely against lefties. He's also never been a good fielder either, so it'd basically be bringing him in to be a platoon partner at DH against lefties. Beyond that, he's going to be 36 next year too.

 

Frankly, at least there was nostalgia for bringing back Konerko and employing him in that exact role. We can't really say that about Willingham. I think the Sox would be far better finding some other alternative.

[caulfield12]

Justin Morneau is a much better idea, but it would suck to have to give up a lot (of talent) when we could have had him this past offseason for pennies on the dollar if not for the fact that we were still suck with Dunn on the roster.

 

Wonder if they would take Viciedo for him?

[witesoxfan]

Justin Morneau is a much better idea, but it would suck to have to give up a lot (of talent) when we could have had him this past offseason for pennies on the dollar if not for the fact that we were still suck with Dunn on the roster.

 

Wonder if they would take Viciedo for him?

 

I do not think that is a better idea, I think it is equally bad. I would not give up Viciedo for Morneau. Next year, he will be a 34 year old 1B coming off his first good season in 4 years with 1 year remaining on his contract. What future value is there in that contract?

[caulfield12]

I do not think that is a better idea, I think it is equally bad. I would not give up Viciedo for Morneau. Next year, he will be a 34 year old 1B coming off his first good season in 4 years with 1 year remaining on his contract. What future value is there in that contract?

 

 

If you think Viciedo's done as a prospect, and we're not going to compete until 2016...then it carries the same amount of logic as signing Lindstrom for next year.

 

Even as a huge Dayan fan since 2008, I think the odds are 5-10X greater that Morneau would help this team (just from being left-handed) and line-up a lot more. I also thinks the odds are higher he could put up monster numbers at USCF and bring back a good trade return if the Sox still aren't competing for the division.

 

Finally, some are advocating signing Adam Dunn for $5-7 million next year. Isn't he basically the same exact age as Morneau? Those same people want to sign Dunn for 2-3 years, or just one?

 

Besides, everyone keeps saying the Viciedo has a negative WAR, can't play the outfield and can't be a DH with a 700ish OPS. Which is the higher probability of success, Morneau slugging 800+ or Dayan when his average for 3+ years is 746?

 

Finally, 75% of the board doesn't even want him on the roster for next year, so controlling his arbitration rights through 2017 isn't a HUGE advantage if he doesn't produce any more than Beckham or DeAza statistically.

 

 

Finally, there's a MUTUAL option for 2016 on Morneau, so it's not just 2015. $9 million dollars. There are also escalators for 2015 (550+ plate appearances, All-Star selection and Top 3 in MVP vote, $500,000 each).

 

But there's more.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7063/splits/

An 858 OPS on the road...where everyone's going to suspect it would be less than 800 and plus 900 at Denver.

 

And we kind of have left-handed power hitter right up there as possibly our top off-season need.

Edited August 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

You can justify it any way you feel. I'm just saying that acquiring a 34 year old 1B who has a history of concussion problems and one good year in the last four is not a good investment. I have no problem with the Sox dealing Viciedo, but they should try and get some kind of prospect out of the deal who has a chance to be a regular contributor at the MLB level for a long time, meaning someone younger than 34.

 

If the Sox were one or two pieces away, I'd have no problem, but you can argue that they have holes at 2B, LF, RF, C, DH, virtually the entire bullpen, 2-3 rotation spots, and a lot of the bench. Moving forward, they're going to need to find a SS too. That's a lot to fill out.

 

Beyond THAT, you are seriously going to go out of your way to trade for and pay extra for a 1B with those kinds of question marks while the Sox have a guy like Wilkins sitting in AAA who has absolutely murdered the ball over the last 2 months? I'd hope if the only two options involved trading Viciedo for Morneau or using Andy Wilkins as the full time DH, the Sox would go with Wilkins.

[shysocks]

Over his last 753 plate appearances, Willingham has put up a .209/.343/.381/.724 with a wRC+ of around 105. He's not an absolutely terrible hitter, but at this point in his career, he's best served hitting solely against lefties. He's also never been a good fielder either, so it'd basically be bringing him in to be a platoon partner at DH against lefties. Beyond that, he's going to be 36 next year too.

 

Frankly, at least there was nostalgia for bringing back Konerko and employing him in that exact role. We can't really say that about Willingham. I think the Sox would be far better finding some other alternative.

Bolded the OBP because it fills a need with Dunn presumably gone. It would be nice if Willingham was a lefty, but look again at his platoon splits.

 

Year: wRC+ v L/R

Career: 128/120

2014: 120/107

2013: 95/104

2012: 145/141 (!)

 

That doesn't say "lefties only" to me. I'd rather have him than Viciedo, for example, even considering salary - neither can defend but Willingham hits and he might have another 2012 lurking in him.

 

There are many alternatives, but a lot of them will cost more. I don't think he's a long-term solution, he gets hurt a lot, and I would think very hard before giving him even a two-year deal, but the 2015 team needs an outfielder and he's a fit.

[witesoxfan]

Bolded the OBP because it fills a need with Dunn presumably gone. It would be nice if Willingham was a lefty, but look again at his platoon splits.

 

Year: wRC+ v L/R

Career: 128/120

2014: 120/107

2013: 95/104

2012: 145/141 (!)

 

That doesn't say "lefties only" to me. I'd rather have him than Viciedo, for example, even considering salary - neither can defend but Willingham hits and he might have another 2012 lurking in him.

 

There are many alternatives, but a lot of them will cost more. I don't think he's a long-term solution, he gets hurt a lot, and I would think very hard before giving him even a two-year deal, but the 2015 team needs an outfielder and he's a fit.

 

2012 was a career year and a clear outlier, and at 36, he's not likely to repeat that. Just 2 years ago Konerko had a really good overall year for the Sox too, but that version is long gone. He's also been quite poor the last two years and banged up on top of that. Frankly, I'd rather see what guys like Phegley and Taylor can do when given a chance at the MLB level. The Sox have alternatives that aren't unathletic 36 year olds with one basic talent, and that's hitting the ball a long ways. At this point in his career, Willingham reminds me a lot of Pat Burrell late in his career.

[shysocks]

2012 was a career year and a clear outlier, and at 36, he's not likely to repeat that. Just 2 years ago Konerko had a really good overall year for the Sox too, but that version is long gone. He's also been quite poor the last two years and banged up on top of that. Frankly, I'd rather see what guys like Phegley and Taylor can do when given a chance at the MLB level. The Sox have alternatives that aren't unathletic 36 year olds with one basic talent, and that's hitting the ball a long ways. At this point in his career, Willingham reminds me a lot of Pat Burrell late in his career.

Willingham's falloff from 2012 to 2014 isn't really comparable to Konerko's, because Willingham remains a good hitter. Taylor is probably a 4th outfielder at best, and if you'd really rather see Phegley then we're very far apart on this one. We can use a guy who hits the ball a long way and plays a position where we're not exactly talent-rich.

[witesoxfan]

Willingham's falloff from 2012 to 2014 isn't really comparable to Konerko's, because Willingham remains a good hitter. Taylor is probably a 4th outfielder at best, and if you'd really rather see Phegley then we're very far apart on this one. We can use a guy who hits the ball a long way and plays a position where we're not exactly talent-rich.

 

I would not say he remains a good hitter, I would say he remains a competent hitter. He's also old while the Sox are in a rebuilding phase, and players do not improve as they get to that age unless they are aided by something.

 

You state that Taylor is "probably" a 4th outfielder, but if he's never given a chance, we'll never know. Thus far in AAA, he's hit an (unsustainable but still great) .338/.417/.545. If he can come up and get a significant amount of at bats and prove to be capable of being a good 4th outfielder, then I find more value in that than I do bringing in an older Willingham.

 

I will just state that Willingham is not a good option, and I imagine he'll probably want to re-sign with Minnesota this offseason anyways. He was never going to get a QO to begin with and stated that he'd love to retire to the upper midwest.

 

[shysocks]

I would not say he remains a good hitter, I would say he remains a competent hitter. He's also old while the Sox are in a rebuilding phase, and players do not improve as they get to that age unless they are aided by something.

 

You state that Taylor is "probably" a 4th outfielder, but if he's never given a chance, we'll never know. Thus far in AAA, he's hit an (unsustainable but still great) .338/.417/.545. If he can come up and get a significant amount of at bats and prove to be capable of being a good 4th outfielder, then I find more value in that than I do bringing in an older Willingham.

 

I will just state that Willingham is not a good option, and I imagine he'll probably want to re-sign with Minnesota this offseason anyways. He was never going to get a QO to begin with and stated that he'd love to retire to the upper midwest.

That is more faith than I'm willing to put into a 28-year-old career minor leaguer, but given he can do those things, I agree that he'd be a better choice. I just find it very unlikely that he or any other outfielder in our system will emerge next year as the starting LF on our next good team.

[witesoxfan]

That is more faith than I'm willing to put into a 28-year-old career minor leaguer, but given he can do those things, I agree that he'd be a better choice. I just find it very unlikely that he or any other outfielder in our system will emerge next year as the starting LF on our next good team.

 

I think the goal right now is finding some sort of long-term alternative, which is something Willingham doesn't represent. That's my biggest qualm.

 

Even if Taylor is a 28 year old career minor leaguer, he can still stick around for 5-6 years and that takes you to 2020. And you hopefully have someone lined up to take over that spot come 2019.

 

Frankly, Alejandro De Aza was pretty much a career minor leaguer when he took over CF for the Sox and, while he's had his struggles and brain farts, has been an overall good player for the Sox.

[shysocks]

I think the goal right now is finding some sort of long-term alternative, which is something Willingham doesn't represent. That's my biggest qualm.

 

Even if Taylor is a 28 year old career minor leaguer, he can still stick around for 5-6 years and that takes you to 2020. And you hopefully have someone lined up to take over that spot come 2019.

 

Frankly, Alejandro De Aza was pretty much a career minor leaguer when he took over CF for the Sox and, while he's had his struggles and brain farts, has been an overall good player for the Sox.

Hopefully you are right about Taylor. I almost brought up De Aza myself but it only served your point. So I didn't.

 

My thing is that I know we're looking for long-term guys, but there are already lots of tryouts going on all over the 2015 roster with two rotation spots, half the bullpen, second base, arguably right field, etc. So at some point, I just want a guy who I know can do it in the majors. That's what Willingham represents to me, but if I elaborate I'll basically just be repeating myself. I certainly see where you're coming from.

[southsider2k5]

I think the goal right now is finding some sort of long-term alternative, which is something Willingham doesn't represent. That's my biggest qualm.

 

Even if Taylor is a 28 year old career minor leaguer, he can still stick around for 5-6 years and that takes you to 2020. And you hopefully have someone lined up to take over that spot come 2019.

 

Frankly, Alejandro De Aza was pretty much a career minor leaguer when he took over CF for the Sox and, while he's had his struggles and brain farts, has been an overall good player for the Sox.

 

De Aza's big problem was catastrophic injuries.

[witesoxfan]

Hopefully you are right about Taylor. I almost brought up De Aza myself but it only served your point. So I didn't.

 

My thing is that I know we're looking for long-term guys, but there are already lots of tryouts going on all over the 2015 roster with two rotation spots, half the bullpen, second base, arguably right field, etc. So at some point, I just want a guy who I know can do it in the majors. That's what Willingham represents to me, but if I elaborate I'll basically just be repeating myself. I certainly see where you're coming from.

 

Right, and I don't necessarily believe Taylor is the solution, but it's a good thing to see these guys in action.

 

It's one of those things where I think we have two distinct sides of this rebuilding thing. Currently, the Sox have the requisite building blocks in place to field a good, strong, contending team - to me, those that we can be assured are those good players are Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton. We may have one in Garcia. But the Sox need glue guys, and acquiring those guys on the free agent market is incredibly expensive and inefficient. If you can find them cheap and cost controlled, you can begin to spend on areas where you have not been able to find those glue guys, which is when it is OK to spend way too much on a bullpen arm.

[caulfield12]

Then I'm going to go by "past demonstrated ability to succeed" in the majors and try to sign Colby Rasmus over trotting out the likes of Taylor, Danks, Wilkins, Willingham, Sierra, Tuiasasopo, etc.

 

Taylor's already 29. There are reasons (just like Joe Borchard, for example) he was never given an extended look in the outfield, despite his obvious potential/ability at one time.

 

We could just as easily argue that Jared Mitchell should be given that opportunity...since it seems whatever statistics are being put up in Charlotte have almost zero grounding in reality with what we're actually going to see in terms of major league performance.

 

 

It's for this reason alone they're more likely to stay with Viciedo for 2015. Sure it would be nice to say, I'll take Melky Cabrera for LF, Russell Martin for C, James Shields for the #2 starter, Andrew Miller or Gregerson for LHR, Uehara/Robertson/K-Rod/Soriano/Janssen as a closer...but I will be believe it when I see it actually transpire.

Edited August 13, 2014 by caulfield12