Offseason Top Prospects lists

[harfman77]

In the chat, John Manuel also mentioned how the White Sox aggressively push the prospects in the minors: DeMichele, Walker, Hawkins, and hopefully not Anderson. Sox need to reflect and realize this isn't working the aggressive push on such raw high ceiling players.

 

No. Buddy Bell will keep doing it until he finds one that works so he can show everyone he knows best. Most organizations send their hitters to learn to have success, the Sox send their hitters to learn to be overmatched. They have a pretty good track record for handling pitching prospects, but this "challenge assignment" philosophy is a huge fail as it not only gets prospects on a bad path, it also saps all of their trade value. If Hawkins was allowed to play a full season of low A ball and put up the numbers he did in his limited time there, he would be a top 50 prospect, but since Buddy decided that 65 AB's in low A is good enough, he is on the verge of being viewed as a fringe prospect.

 

If you dont give a guy enough time at a level to struggle when opposing coaches/players figure him out, they don't learn how to make appropriate adjustments to get back to that level of success. Instead we send a guy up to be overmatched and his adjustments get him back to being overmatched. Even thoguh Trout dominated Low A, he still played 85 games there over two seasons. Byron Buxton played 68 games at low A. Both hitters more advanced than Hawkins and the Sox decide 16 games are sufficient. It is such poor handling of hitting prospects that it is almost criminal.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 6 Jan

They're close. I have Semien ahead in my rankings. RT @bigcardsfanphil how much of a gap do you see between Wong and Semien?

 

That's high praise considering that Wong is almost universally considered a top #100 prospect.

Frank (Chicago, IL): Hi John, how many of these guys are likely to make BA's top 100?

 

John Manuel: Jose Abreu and Erik Johnson are top 100 guys for sure for me. Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson have a chance, but I would not say they are consensus guys. I believe Abreu was the only White Sox guy I put in my Top 50 in the Handbook, which went to press a week ago today, and that last fact makes me smile just a bit. So between two and four is the answer.

This quote pretty much says that Semien is not a top 100 prospect. It also suggests that Davidson may not make it either.

 

I'll be interested in seeing where Wong ends up in these rankings now Badler made that comment.

[royoung]

This quote pretty much says that Semien is not a top 100 prospect. It also suggests that Davidson may not make it either.

 

I'll be interested in seeing where Wong ends up in these rankings now Badler made that comment.

 

I don't think Manuel is as high as Badler on Semien, and I am assuming Manuel makes the ranks, so no surprise Semien isn't in there. Regardless of rank, gotta be excited for Semien going forward with his tools and plate discipline.

[Balta1701]

To me, Abreu will be overlooked in top 100 prospect lists and put somewhere in the 40's or 50's though he should be higher.

 

Erik Johnson should land somewhere in the 50-75 range.

 

Davison should be 85-100.

 

Semien will be all over the place. Some lists will exclude him others will have him.

 

I don't see Anderson making many lists.

If the Rangers had signed Abreu for the same money we did I'd assume he'd be #1.

[royoung]

To me, Abreu will be overlooked in top 100 prospect lists and put somewhere in the 40's or 50's though he should be higher.

 

Erik Johnson should land somewhere in the 50-75 range.

 

Davison should be 85-100.

 

Semien will be all over the place. Some lists will exclude him others will have him.

 

I don't see Anderson making many lists.

 

Abreu shouldn't be ranked IMO, but if he is, I don't see why he would be top 20. How many of those guys can be realistically expected to put up a .250/.350/.475 line in their first year?

 

I agree with the others, though I bet Tim Anderson makes a couple lists. Scouts were quite high on him and his professional debut did nothing to temper expectations.

[southsider2k5]

Abreu shouldn't be ranked IMO, but if he is, I don't see why he would be top 20. How many of those guys can be realistically expected to put up a .250/.350/.475 line in their first year?

 

I agree with the others, though I bet Tim Anderson makes a couple lists. Scouts were quite high on him and his professional debut did nothing to temper expectations.

 

Forget top 20, he should be Top 5 for sure. He has it all if you are counting him as a prospect.

[ILMOU]

Also, I can't see how anyone can rank Davidson above Erik Johnson. I look at EJ as a guy with a high ceiling and Davidson as a high bust rate. There is a much bigger chance EJ is an annual producer in my mind.

Totally agree. The huge disparity among the opinions of experts merely underscores how inexact the projections are. I don't sweat it.

 

I think there's a general slight bias against our system right now, primarily for position players, and it is indeed justified until somebody shows something at the MLB level.

[ILMOU]

No. Buddy Bell will keep doing it until he finds one that works so he can show everyone he knows best. Most organizations send their hitters to learn to have success, the Sox send their hitters to learn to be overmatched. They have a pretty good track record for handling pitching prospects, but this "challenge assignment" philosophy is a huge fail as it not only gets prospects on a bad path, it also saps all of their trade value. If Hawkins was allowed to play a full season of low A ball and put up the numbers he did in his limited time there, he would be a top 50 prospect, but since Buddy decided that 65 AB's in low A is good enough, he is on the verge of being viewed as a fringe prospect.

 

If you dont give a guy enough time at a level to struggle when opposing coaches/players figure him out, they don't learn how to make appropriate adjustments to get back to that level of success. Instead we send a guy up to be overmatched and his adjustments get him back to being overmatched. Even thoguh Trout dominated Low A, he still played 85 games there over two seasons. Byron Buxton played 68 games at low A. Both hitters more advanced than Hawkins and the Sox decide 16 games are sufficient. It is such poor handling of hitting prospects that it is almost criminal.

 

Amen.

 

Will Hahn be able to clean house as he knows he likely needs to, or will BB have the job for life? Our position player development has been the org-killer - this should be obvious to JR and everyone else.

[ptatc]

While I don't agree with his #2 ranking, I do think he's being underrated by a lot people. The kid absolutely dominated AA in an age-appropriate season, while demonstrating incredible plate discipline. Maybe I'm wrong, but prospects that can show that kind of plate discipline at the higher levels typically fair better against major league pitching. Also, in terms of comps, he was better offensively than other top 100 prospects like Joc Pederson & Arismendy Alcantara. Unfortunately, John Maneul said in his Sox chat that Semien won't be cracking this year's list. It really bothers me that Baseball America believes there are 100+ prospects out there that are better than a 22 year old middle infielder that posted a .903 OPS & 167 wRC+ in AA.

Semien doesn't really have any outstanding tools. He is above average on just about everything. These types don't generally make the list.

[Quin]

If Abreu is being counted as a prospect, he's the #1 prospect in baseball.

[Jake]

You don't see a lot of 1Bmen as top prospects. And, ironically, if he is on one of these lists he'll be harmed by both his age (will be 27 soon) and lack of MiLB experience, which of course calls into question the wisdom of including him on such a list.

[Chicago White Sox]

Semien doesn't really have any outstanding tools. He is above average on just about everything. These types don't generally make the list.

He had a .420 OBP in AA with more BBs than Ks. Plate discipline may not be a tool, but it is a skill and Semien demonstrated it extremely well last year. Given the value of OBP, I'm not sure why this skill is less important than any physical tool.

[TomPickle]

I would think that Abreu will be rated within a few spots of Kris Bryant on most lists. Only other prospect that seems remotely comparable is Miguel Sano and both of those guys are looked at as potential 3B or corner OFs not 1B/DH types.

[harfman77]

He had a .420 OBP in AA with more BBs than Ks. Plate discipline may not be a tool, but it is a skill and Semien demonstrated it extremely well last year. Given the value of OBP, I'm not sure why this skill is less important than any physical tool.

 

Sanchez had a .424 OBP in AA, playing the level two years younger than Semien. Granted it is a small sample, but it amazes me how many people are willing to give up on Sanchez and proclaim Semien a better prospect.

[witesoxfan]

Sanchez had a .424 OBP in AA, playing the level two years younger than Semien. Granted it is a small sample, but it amazes me how many people are willing to give up on Sanchez and proclaim Semien a better prospect.

 

Sanchez also hit .370, and it was only over 30 games. For the year, his IsoOBP was .055 and IsoSLG was .070. If he's not hitting for average, he's going to be fairly unproductive. Think Placido Polanco.

 

Semien's IsoOBP in the minors last year was .117 and his IsoSLG was .195. The differences between the two are vast. You can make a lot of comparisons, but his numbers are not that far off from Chase Utley's in the minors.

 

I like Carlos Sanchez and I think he can be a good big league player, but let's put things in perspective.

[ptatc]

He had a .420 OBP in AA with more BBs than Ks. Plate discipline may not be a tool, but it is a skill and Semien demonstrated it extremely well last year. Given the value of OBP, I'm not sure why this skill is less important than any physical tool.

Is one good skill worth being in the top 100? This is the question you need to ask. That is what they look for when making the list.

[Balta1701]

Is one good skill worth being in the top 100? This is the question you need to ask. That is what they look for when making the list.

If every one of his other skills is average or better and he has the ability to play premium positions, then possibly.

[ptatc]

If every one of his other skills is average or better and he has the ability to play premium positions, then possibly.

I agree that possibly is the answer. I don't agree with the post that stated he is definitely a top 100. He looks like a possible good player in the MLB. Not necessarily one of the top prospects, nothing jumps out as "this guy is going to be really good."

[Vance Law]

Semien doesn't really have any outstanding tools. He is above average on just about everything. These types don't generally make the list.

 

By this do you mean that his stats, his performance, in 2013 (and 2012 for that matter) outshine or speak more loudly than his tools?

 

Not arguing with you on this, but I'd be interested to know how many middle infielders playing at age-appropriate levels put up OPS numbers of .833 and then .880 the past two years. Would the people making these lists argue "yeah, but his tools don't say that he can keep doing that"?

[ptatc]

By this do you mean that his stats, his performance, in 2013 (and 2012 for that matter) outshine or speak more loudly than his tools?

 

Not arguing with you on this, but I'd be interested to know how many middle infielders playing at age-appropriate levels put up OPS numbers of .833 and then .880 the past two years. Would the people making these lists argue "yeah, but his tools don't say that he can keep doing that"?

My reasoning is that many of the people who create these lists look at his tools will translate to the MLB level as well as his stats. All of his tools have been rated as average to slightly above average, with none really being a plus tool other than maybe "batting eye" or OBP. This type of player typically does not make a top 100 list.

Personally, I like him alot and think he will be a good player not an all star but good. However, with his tool set, I can see why he is not on top 100 lists.

[NorthSideSox72]

I for one think that scouting of minor leaguers has swung too far towards physical tools. I think we're missing out on good baseball players in some cases by doing that.

 

And before anyone launches into the obvious here, I'm aware of how all this works. Stats in the lower levels of the minors, for example, don't mean a lot. And obviously, some of the time at least, success in the minors may be an illusion.

 

That all said, when you have players who put up big numbers in the upper levels of the minors, I think scouting types are sometimes too quick to write them off based on things like a lack of a single, flashy plus tool, or the fact that a guy is say 24 vs 22/23. Not that those factors aren't relevant, because they very much are - but for some, those perceived tools have been allowed to crowd out performance nearly entirely. My personal view is, that trend will start to reverse itself in the next few years, a bit.

 

[witesoxfan]

I for one think that scouting of minor leaguers has swung too far towards physical tools. I think we're missing out on good baseball players in some cases by doing that.

 

And before anyone launches into the obvious here, I'm aware of how all this works. Stats in the lower levels of the minors, for example, don't mean a lot. And obviously, some of the time at least, success in the minors may be an illusion.

 

That all said, when you have players who put up big numbers in the upper levels of the minors, I think scouting types are sometimes too quick to write them off based on things like a lack of a single, flashy plus tool, or the fact that a guy is say 24 vs 22/23. Not that those factors aren't relevant, because they very much are - but for some, those perceived tools have been allowed to crowd out performance nearly entirely. My personal view is, that trend will start to reverse itself in the next few years, a bit.

 

Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter were never top 100 prospects.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Referring back to that prospect's digest rankings....holy crap do they like Semien.

 

They think he could peak around a 4-4.5 WAR player. Do you guys know the last time we had a 4.5 WAR player? Carlos Quentin in 2008 when he could have very easily been the MVP sans-anger issues.

[ILMOU]

Sanchez also hit .370, and it was only over 30 games. For the year, his IsoOBP was .055 and IsoSLG was .070. If he's not hitting for average, he's going to be fairly unproductive. Think Placido Polanco.

 

Semien's IsoOBP in the minors last year was .117 and his IsoSLG was .195. The differences between the two are vast. You can make a lot of comparisons, but his numbers are not that far off from Chase Utley's in the minors.

 

I like Carlos Sanchez and I think he can be a good big league player, but let's put things in perspective.

 

Marcus has definitely shown some nice pop. His bat and OBP skills, if he maximizes his potential, fits great as a 2 hitter, at either 2nd or 3rd base, maybe SS if he's up to it defensively. Sanchez really needs to stick at SS as an average-plus defender, and show consistent OBP/BA skills.

[Balta1701]

Marcus has definitely shown some nice pop. His bat and OBP skills, if he maximizes his potential, fits great as a 2 hitter, at either 2nd or 3rd base, maybe SS if he's up to it defensively. Sanchez really needs to stick at SS as an average-plus defender, and show consistent OBP/BA skills.

Again, the statement that Sanchez's bat would be too weak to stick anywhere other than SS just doesn't match up with the modern league. Last year the average OPS at 2b was .707 and it was .681 at short. He might not take 2b away from a guy like Marcus, but if he has good enough bat control to hit .300 and takes an occasional walk he'd easily put up an above average OPS out of 2b even with very little power.

 

That's the league we're in these days.