Reinsdorf on Score....there's still money in the budget

[Balta1701]

Aging offensive core that had one last gasp.

And now that we've replaced the key guy who underperformed from that group with a guy who could be a real stud, we're right back to that level, correct?

[Marty34]

And now that we've replaced the key guy who underperformed from that group with a guy who could be a real stud, we're right back to that level, correct?

 

Not even close. They've gone from an aging offensive core to having no offensive core.

[Balta1701]

Not even close. They've gone from an aging offensive core to having no offensive core.

As usual, you've done nothing to explain how 2012 was the fluke and 2013 was not.

 

You could darn well be right...if this team's focus and defense level is as bad as it was in 2013. IMO, aside from Konerko, that was the biggest difference between the 2 seasons; one year they actually wanted to be there, the next year they couldn't possibly have cared less.

[Marty34]

As usual, you've done nothing to explain how 2012 was the fluke and 2013 was not.

 

You could darn well be right...if this team's focus and defense level is as bad as it was in 2013. IMO, aside from Konerko, that was the biggest difference between the 2 seasons; one year they actually wanted to be there, the next year they couldn't possibly have cared less.

 

I never said 2012 was a fluke. 2013 collapse could be seen from miles away though.

[Balta1701]

I never said 2012 was a fluke. 2013 collapse could be seen from miles away though.

Yeah, when you predict failure every year eventually you're going to be right.

[Marty34]

Yeah, when you predict failure every year eventually you're going to be right.

 

I certainly did not predict 90 wins for 2013.

[iamshack]

Well, you've got no Alex Rios and no catcher hitting 26 homers or whatever; other than that, yeah, it's pretty much the same

 

I don't think it matters whether we think we're going to be competitive or not; Hahn and are Reinsdorf have both made it clear they aren't going to punt this season. They're going to try and make moves that are good both in the short and long term.

[southsider2k5]

I certainly did not predict 90 wins for 2013.

 

To be fair, you didn't predict 99 losses either.

[Balta1701]

Well, you've got no Alex Rios and no catcher hitting 26 homers or whatever; other than that, yeah, it's pretty much the same

 

I don't think it matters whether we think we're going to be competitive or not; Hahn and are Reinsdorf have both made it clear they aren't going to punt this season. They're going to try and make moves that are good both in the short and long term.

At least for RF, we'd probably be hoping that the guy we acquired will out-produce Rios this year.

[iamshack]

At least for RF, we'd probably be hoping that the guy we acquired will out-produce Rios this year.

I'd be thrilled with that, but I don't anticipate that.

[Balta1701]

I'd be thrilled with that, but I don't anticipate that.

Not sure I do either, but that's one of those things that would need to happen for this team to compete.

 

If that isn't going to happen...then signing Konerko and aiming for the better draft pick makes more sense.

[Eminor3rd]

The truth of the last two years, is of course, in the middle of 85 and 63 wins.

 

However, we don't even have that team anymore. Konerko is likely cooked. Rios, Peavy, Thornton, Pierzynski are all gone. You can be confident in Abreu and still get a true talent low 70's win team. It's not impossible for us to compete, but it is very unlikely. We should accept this reality.

[southsider2k5]

The truth of the last two years, is of course, in the middle of 85 and 63 wins.

 

However, we don't even have that team anymore. Konerko is likely cooked. Rios, Peavy, Thornton, Pierzynski are all gone. You can be confident in Abreu and still get a true talent low 70's win team. It's not impossible for us to compete, but it is very unlikely. We should accept this reality.

 

The pitching could support a 90 win team. They just need to score some runs, somehow.

[Eminor3rd]

The pitching could support a 90 win team. They just need to score some runs, somehow.

 

Sure, but that's a very tall order. They aren't even close to an acceptable offense.

[GreenSox]

The pitching could support a 90 win team. They just need to score some runs, somehow.

Sale, Qutinana and I guess Santiago and who else can you trust?

Jones, Reed, I guess Lindstrom and some of the worst relievers the Sox have had in 5+ years. Honestly, if any of those other bullpen pitchers are back (Veal, Purcey, Troncoso, etc.) this team won't win 70 games again.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

You have the Sox contending in 2014?

I don't have anything except wanting Hahn not be hamstrung by one more roster spot taken by Konerko thus making the team less versatile, less athletic, slower and any other negatives Konerko returning brings.

[witesoxfan]

Does "if everything goes right" mean Beckham leads the league in batting. Flowers and Viciedo each hit 50 homers, DeAza steals 60 bases and Sale wins 20 games and doubles as the closer.

 

Lets realistically hope that they go from 99 to 80 losses next year. That may reguire a lot of things to go right.

 

He said compete, not win 120 games.

 

We do realistically hope they win 80 games next year. If everything goes right - no matter your lineup - this team will be competitive. In the scenario, you are probably talking about Abreu with an .850-.900 OPS, Viciedo, Garcia, and Dunn with an .800-.850 OPS, Beckham/Semien/Gillaspie/De Aza at .750-.800, and the catcher and Ramirez at .700-.750; defensively, they are back to near the top of the majors; pitching wise, they take a step forward from good to very good (Sale 2.75 ERA, Quintana 3.25 ERA, Santiago 3.00-3.50 ERA, Johnson and Danks 3.75 ERA; bullpen is stout and studly).

 

None of that is ridiculous to see happening. It's also incredibly doubtful that it all happens. Realistically, I am expecting the team to win 75 games. It doesn't mean you don't put yourself in an "if everything goes right" sort of position. You don't tank.

[Balta1701]

The pitching could support a 90 win team. They just need to score some runs, somehow.

And to remember how to catch the ball.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And to remember how to catch the ball.

Or get some players who don't have to remember since guys like Viciedo and De Aza will have a hard time even being average outfielders ever.

[witesoxfan]

Or get some players who don't have to remember since guys like Viciedo and De Aza will have a hard time even being average outfielders ever.

 

I stand by the idea that De Aza is a really good defensive LF.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I stand by the idea that De Aza is a really good defensive LF.

I'm glad it's just an idea because I'm not sure if there is any proof of it. De Aza in CF was even worse than Viciedo in left.

[witesoxfan]

I'm glad it's just an idea because I'm not sure if there is any proof of it. De Aza in CF was even worse than Viciedo in left.

 

Yes, because (as I recall) he is incredibly uncomfortable in CF. That's why he'd move from CF to LF with Wise subbing in for him in 2012.

 

The sample sizes in the corners are small, but in his career, his UZR in CF is -0.3 (and the UZR/150 is -0.4), while it's -0.1/-0.1 in LF and it's 5.0/35.0 in RF (which puts his overall value higher in the corners). In 2013, he provided 0.1/1.0 in LF and -2.7/-4.1 in CF.

 

Maybe good is the wrong word, but he is a far better defensively in LF than he is in CF.

[Jake]

Let's think about some good case scenarios.

 

We'll just say Alexei duplicates his past season: 3.1 WAR on the strength of great baserunning and defense and an 86 wRC+, the average figure for a SS

 

We'll tweak De Aza a little bit. Instead of the 97 wRC+ last year, we'll say his good case scenario involves him posting a 106 wRC+ as he did in 2012. Likewise, he'll play replacement-level defense like he did in 2012 as opposed to about 1/3 win below replacement level. Bear in mind this guy was worth almost an entire win on the strength of his CF defense in his rookie year. Anyway: 3.0 WAR (2.2 last year)

 

Gordon doesn't break out, but does his usual mixture of hot and cold, ending with the same 88 wRC+ he had last year. This time, he plays over 150 games though. No change to defense: 1.5 WAR (1.0 last year in 100 games)

 

Gillaspie will appear to have a much better season, but play significantly fewer games as he more or less platoons with Keppinger. Much like he did last year, Gillaspie posts a league-average 100 wRC+ overall. This assumes he bats almost exclusively against RHP and makes a very marginal gain against both LHP and RHP: I'll go with the steamer projection of 1.3 WAR (0.7 last year)

 

Keppinger will obviously step up quite a bit in a good case scenario and there's no reason to think he will duplicate his worst career season. To avoid going overboard, we'll say he comes far short of his better seasons with the bat. 128 wRC+ and 60 wRC+ in 2012/2013. I'll just refer to his career averages and predict a 105 wRC+ on the strength of him duplicating his career average 121 wRC+ against LHP. To protect him from RHP and protect us from his sub-standard D, his games played goes down: 1.5 WAR (-1.5 last year)

 

Garcia will obviously play well in this scenario. He posted a 109 wRC+ with the White Sox last season and we'll say he sticks with that. His defense in a very small sample has never rated well, but for now we'll say he plays RF at replacement level; not sure if that is an optimistic projection or not. 2.5 WAR (compare to 2.0 WAR for Rios in 100 games for us last season)

 

Dayan will hit well, too. His good runs will finally start to definitively outweigh his bad. After posting 98 and 96 wRC+ in his two seasons, he'll step that up. He had a monster 178 wRC+ vs LHP in 2012 vs. a perplexing 89 in 2013. We'll expect him to mash LHP in 2014, but maybe not on the all-world level of the past. In the spirit of optimism, we will say that he does replicate his 98 wRC+ vs RHP (was 72 in 2012), with the help of strategic days off. Steamer thinks he'll post a 108 overall wRC+ with a 1.6 WAR. I'm going to say he goes 115 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR, with just the slightest improvements on D. He's been more or less exactly at replacement level previously.

 

Flowers. I'm going to say he wins the job as he outplayed Phegley by a great deal last season, though we actually expect a new player to brought in to presumably get the lion's share of the starts. I'll predict that a. he goes back to playing solid D and b. he hits better, but not good. His 59 wRC+ does not go back to the 91 and 94 in previous season, but rather 79. He will post 1.0 WAR, something he's done before in a part time role, rather than the break even replacement level he did last year. I'd argue that his value is actually unchanged by him playing a backup role BTW.

 

Dunn! I won't go overboard even in this good case scenario. He posted 115 and 105 wRC+ in 2012 and 2013. I'm just going to say his season is more like 2012 than 2013 and that he plays little to no defense. 2.0 WAR, roughly average for DH. His LH bat proves valuable breaking up our righties, howver.

 

Abreu. This is, of course, the hardest. For the purposes of this argument, let's say his absolute ceiling is an MVP - 150 wRC+ type 1Bman. His absolute floor, we'll say is 90 wRC+ - this is like saying the worst he can do is a little worse than Dayan has done, which I think is fair as a floor. He's going to have a great year in my good case scenario, but nowhere near his ceiling. As our best hitter, he puts up a 130 wRC+ and plays league average defense. Compare that offensive production to Paulie's 2012 (Paulie's 2012, of course, was more like 2 months of 200 wRC+ and 3 months of 80 wRC+). He will be worth about 4.0 WAR.

 

Pitching stays the same. Bench players are neither good nor bad. That's a playoff team. Those are all intentionally optimistic projections, but not best case scenarios. Several players hardly change and only young players produce at a level they have never done previously (Viciedo, Abreu, Garcia). In real life, you'd have some of these guys going below these expecations and others going above even in the good case scenario - but this is just a way of looking at it.

[witesoxfan]

It is worth mentioning that Dunn was still far, far more productive when he was actually on the field compared to DHing. At this point, it's pretty impossible to ignore.

[Jake]

It is worth mentioning that Dunn was still far, far more productive when he was actually on the field compared to DHing. At this point, it's pretty impossible to ignore.

 

Indeed. Kind of hard to speculate on whether that will continue. I still regard the sample size as a bit too small for certainty, but the difference is nonetheless worth attention