Pre-Winter Meetings Best Course of Action

[Marty34]

Since the end of 2013:

 

1. Abreau signed

2. Payroll expected to be less than last year's $109M.

3. Sale, Quintana, Garcia said to be untouchable.

4. Per chairman Reinsdorf money available for another signing (presumably impact.)

 

Given the points above do you feel better about the Sox direction now than at the end of the year?

 

I have mixed feelings. I think the Abreau signing was a must, but the signing itself isn't enough. They have to be right about him to restore faith in their scouting operation. I'm disappointed that the payroll will be lower and that Sale and Quintana are untouchable.

 

Fortunately, I think Hahn is employing some gamesmanship with the availability of players. If the payroll is indeed going to be lower given the state of the Sox farm system Sale and Quintana should not be untouchable.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Marty34

[Jake]

Since the end of 2013:

 

1. Abreau signed

2. Payroll expected to be less than last year's $109M.

3. Sale, Quintana, Garcia said to be untouchable.

4. Per chairman Reinsdorf money available for another signing (presumably impact.)

 

Given the points above do you feel better about the Sox direction now than at the end of the year?

 

I have mixed feelings. I think the Abreau signing was a must, but the signing itself isn't enough. They have to be right about him to restore faith in their scouting operation. I'm disappointed that the payroll will be lower and that Sale and Quintana are untouchable.

 

Fortunately, I think Hahn is employing some gamesmanship with the availability of players. If the payroll is indeed going to be lower given the state of the Sox farm system Sale and Quintana should not be untouchable.

 

I think the payroll is low because we don't have players worth investing in and there are not free agents we feel are worth investing in rather than a budgetary necessity. I think there is a general feeling that there isn't enough worthy talent out there to have it make sense to blow up our payroll higher than last year. We have many question marks on our roster - some starters, every outfielder, second and third basemen, back end of the bullpen. I don't mean that in the sense that it is a question whether all of those players are worth a s***, but the question is how good are they? It's tough to say what position or positions we should focus our spending on. You don't really want to buy a corner outfielder, for instance, if Dayan and Avisail have monster seasons; and since they're both going to be here next year, you don't want to sign one even if you know there is a good chance this player makes you better.

 

Same way with the infield positions, to a lesser extent. With young guys like Gordon (should we even say he's still young?) and Gillaspie with Semien, Leury Garcia, and maybe Carlos Sanchez in the wings, you might not want to go blow your wad acquiring a 2B/SS/3B until you have more clarity in terms of what those players are going to give you. I might advocate going for a 3B if there was one available, since Conor has limited ceiling and I don't thin Semien is a longterm 3B nor is any other MLB-ready player in our minor leagues.

 

In general, yes I feel good about the direction of things. I feel like the real question is whether we feel better than we did on July 25th or so.

[caulfield12]

To most evaluators, the only thing more surprising than Quintana transforming from PED-suspension washout, to twice-released minor league free agent to churning out a 200-inning season with an ERA 22% better than the league average, would be him demonstrating the ability to do it consistently.

 

Quintana’s rapid growth and improvement is fascinating, and I will be eager to see his next steps no matter where they take place, but it would be hard to question the logic of selling high on him at this point. This is a chance to trade someone thought to have back-end rotation talent at best after a year of producing like a fringe No. 2 starter. His 2013 season is the magical “???” stage in the three-step path to profit.

 

Assuming–which I would like to do–that Quintana is the real deal, there’s still an issue of who is going to made available if not him. Without Sale, Garcia or Abreu, Quintana was the biggest trade piece the Sox had. Without him, there might not be anyone capable of pulling in an above-average regular on his own.

 

Hector Santiago has value, as does Addison Reed or Alexei Ramirez. But if there’s any substantive change to be made to this offense in this offseason, these are awfully small tools to go to work with. Dealing spare parts can expect similar returns.

 

Given their success in the area, trading from starting pitching and placing faith in their ability to develop replacements would be a way for the White Sox to play to their strengths. Jose Quintana could and should have years of great value to provide them, but the more the White Sox limit their options, the slower the rebuild they’re signing up for becomes.

 

www.southsideshowdown.com

 

 

 

A lot are taking issue with the limitation of being limited to trading only Santiago instead of Quintana.

 

That definitely limits your options/return.

 

As far as are we better off....we won't know until we see Abreu play for at least one year and we find a permanent/long-term solution at catcher. I'd probably add the third piece would be finding a long-term solution for replacing Alexei Ramirez at SS, even though you could certainly say that about CF/leadoff, 2B or 3B.

 

In the short term, we most need to improve the catching position, and we simply don't have have anyone at the minor league level profiling now as a future starter. Kevan Smith was a favorite of quite a few of the scouting crowd, but he seems to have taken a step back, and we all know what happened with Phegley.

 

We do have the infield pieces (Semien, Sanchez, L. Garcia and Micah Johnson) but still a lot of uncertainty about where they fit and which ones have the ability, both offensively AND defensively, to play everyday.

Edited November 17, 2013 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

I have no idea at all why you would expect the payroll NOT to be lower. 99 loss team, seven straight years of declining attendance.

[Chicago White Sox]

I have no idea at all why you would expect the payroll NOT to be lower. 99 loss team, seven straight years of declining attendance.

$25M in extra TV money. I'm not disagreeing with your main point, but I would expect a lower payroll because of competitive reasons rather than declining attendance. That extra TV money should easily offset that.

[Marty34]

I have no idea at all why you would expect the payroll NOT to be lower. 99 loss team, seven straight years of declining attendance.

 

6 probably 7 years of profitability too. Mismanagement of the farm system is a big reason why the Sox are where they are. They have the ability to spend money to make up for that mismanagement. It will be disappointing if the payroll is cut.

[southsider2k5]

$25M in extra TV money. I'm not disagreeing with your main point, but I would expect a lower payroll because of competitive reasons rather than declining attendance. That extra TV money should easily offset that.

 

When you take Abreu and the extra draft money, those dollars are gone.

[Eminor3rd]

$25M in extra TV money. I'm not disagreeing with your main point, but I would expect a lower payroll because of competitive reasons rather than declining attendance. That extra TV money should easily offset that.

 

 

6 probably 7 years of profitability too. Mismanagement of the farm system is a big reason why the Sox are where they are. They have the ability to spend money to make up for that mismanagement. It will be disappointing if the payroll is cut.

 

Just because you HAVE money doesn't mean you NEED to spend it all. Free agency provides player value at market rate, by definition. When you are not within range of the prize, it makes more sense to target assets with surplus value. Why would you spend market rate on a bunch of wins that won't add up to a championship? Those are the LAST assets you should add to the mix.

 

In adding payroll, the Sox should ONLY be looking to add assets that have surplus value. If those guys aren't there, spending money for the hell of it makes no sense. Bank it and spend it when those guys ARE there.

[southsider2k5]

Well that's a silly argument because it's all in how you want to appropriate the money because when we signed Abreu everyone was saying this is because of the Peavy, Rios, Thornton and Crain trades. We have all the money that were coming off the books (Thornton, Crain, Floyd), all the money from the contracts we traded (Peavy, Rios) and the 25 million dollars from the new TV deal.

 

We are also looking at losing a ton of money due to ticket drops, ticket price drops, and loss of advertisers.

[Marty34]

We are also looking at losing a ton of money due to ticket drops, ticket price drops, and loss of advertisers.

 

The value of the franchise is ~$1 BILLION sweating $10M in revenue is penny wise and pound foolish.

[southsider2k5]

The value of the franchise is ~$1 BILLION sweating $10M in revenue is penny wise and pound foolish.

 

Not the franchise valuation thing again. Come on.

[bigruss]

Not the franchise valuation thing again. Come on.

Ha, I love how team value somehow means magical money to spend. every. year.

[southsider2k5]

Ha, I love how team value somehow means magical money to spend. every. year.

 

There are things that could be used as valid arguments for spending. The franchise valuation is absolute non-sense when it comes to what a team can/should spend.

 

It is like saying "That farmer is rich, his land is worth a million dollars!".

[witesoxfan]

My car is worth $22,000. I charge 25,000 people 1 cent for 3 hour rides in it. Fuel costs are variable, but are by no means cheap. I need to make significant repairs constantly. I also have to consistently make payments towards the car as well. And you really believe it makes sense that I can just spend $220 on a whim because my car is worth $22,000?

[Marty34]

Not the franchise valuation thing again. Come on.

 

I think we should look at the Sox as a billion dollar business and not a mom and pop outfit.

 

[witesoxfan]

I think we should look at the Sox as a billion dollar business and not a mom and pop outfit.

 

Because mom and pop outfits routinely spend $10 million

[bigruss]

I think we should look at the Sox as a billion dollar business and not a mom and pop outfit.

You need to go read up on company finances before posting anything more in regards to this topic.

[Dick Allen]

There are things that could be used as valid arguments for spending. The franchise valuation is absolute non-sense when it comes to what a team can/should spend.

 

It is like saying "That farmer is rich, his land is worth a million dollars!".

No its not. Teams' values are evaluated and estimated by evaluating all of their known assets and liabilities.

 

There is a reason a team is worth close to $1 billion. It isn't because they lose money or break even every year. They always seem able to add money to the payroll when they claim they are maxed out. The key here is the White Sox have very little debt, unlike a lot of teams.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Dick Allen

[harfman77]

I think we should look at the Sox as a billion dollar business and not a mom and pop outfit.

 

And looking at it as a business, there is nothing out there worth investing in currently. Any game changing free agents are going to impact future fluidity of the business while bringing no guarantee of increasing revenue. The FO is doing things the right way, the Abreu signing was a lot of risk, but the potential rewards are enormous, and two years from now that asset could look like a bargain.

 

The Sox are better off investing that money in developing future assets, through the draft and international free agency, and carrying any excess revenue over into next offseason where there are going to be three legitimate 3b options to complement a team that should have a majority of the rest of the roster in place by then.

 

The best course of action is to sit back and make everyone available and see what return you can get for your current assets, if you feel you can get someone in the open market place to pay a premium for some of your current assets, you can make a deal, but making a deal just to shuffle the deck makes little sense.

[harfman77]

No its not. Teams' values are evaluated and estimated by evaluating all of their known assets and liabilities.

 

There is a reason a team is worth close to $1 billion. It isn't because they lose money or break even every year. They always seem able to add money to the payroll when they claim they are maxed out. The key here is the White Sox have very little debt, unlike a lot of teams.

 

Yes, but the Sox also own a lot of real estate that other teams do not as well. The valuation is based mostly non-liquid assets. The Sox have a pretty poor TV contract for a team in a market of this size and that is a major hindrance from the team being able to spend a lot of money.

[Dick Allen]

And looking at it as a business, there is nothing out there worth investing in currently. Any game changing free agents are going to impact future fluidity of the business while bringing no guarantee of increasing revenue. The FO is doing things the right way, the Abreu signing was a lot of risk, but the potential rewards are enormous, and two years from now that asset could look like a bargain.

 

The Sox are better off investing that money in developing future assets, through the draft and international free agency, and carrying any excess revenue over into next offseason where there are going to be three legitimate 3b options to complement a team that should have a majority of the rest of the roster in place by then.

 

The best course of action is to sit back and make everyone available and see what return you can get for your current assets, if you feel you can get someone in the open market place to pay a premium for some of your current assets, you can make a deal, but making a deal just to shuffle the deck makes little sense.

That to me is the most difficult thing when hou really aren't developing your own guys. In free agency, there may be better guys available next year or the year after but things can change. They might not be as desirable in a year or two, and other teams may have a need and depending on who they are, drive the price up. If the Yankees or Dodgers really needed a firstbaseman, does anyone really think the Sox would have gotten Abreu? Timing plays a huge role, and a lot of it is just luck.

[southsider2k5]

I think we should look at the Sox as a billion dollar business and not a mom and pop outfit.

 

I think if you are going to look at the Sox as a business, you probably should apply some business common sense to your thinking. Just because you are worth a billion dollars, doesn't mean you have a billion dollars to spend. It doesn't mean you can spend a dollar when you only have 50 cents.

[Dick Allen]

Yes, but the Sox also own a lot of real estate that other teams do not as well. The valuation is based mostly non-liquid assets. The Sox have a pretty poor TV contract for a team in a market of this size and that is a major hindrance from the team being able to spend a lot of money.

What real estate do they own?

[southsider2k5]

Yes, but the Sox also own a lot of real estate that other teams do not as well. The valuation is based mostly non-liquid assets. The Sox have a pretty poor TV contract for a team in a market of this size and that is a major hindrance from the team being able to spend a lot of money.

 

You will probably need to explain with really small words...

[Dick Allen]

You will probably need to explain with really small words...

You might want to read this article. I think his liquid assets are better than most.

 

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/201...ts-even-sweeter