Ryan Braun

[Eminor3rd]

Assuming of course that he wasn't cheating at that time as well.

 

I assume that he WAS. I'm just saying that he could drop 2 WAR and still be a good deal.

[Eminor3rd]

Wait, the possibility of a team taking on a bad contract giving up next to nothing in return never happens.

 

No, the possibility of a team giving you prospects to entice you to accept a bad contract for next to nothing in return never happens. And never will.

 

EDIT: Because it's nonsensical for everyone involved.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Rowand44]

That'd be amazing to grab him if Milwaukee picked up a good chunk of his contract, but yeah, not happening.

[greg775]

I'd pass on this guy. He sounds like a loser. Passan really casts a bad light on Braun:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ryan-braun-do...-050550708.html

[Balta1701]

I'd pass on this guy. He sounds like a loser. Passan really casts a bad light on Braun:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ryan-braun-do...-050550708.html

Greg, this might be the first and only time I ever wholeheartedly agree with you.

[Eminor3rd]

That'd be amazing to grab him if Milwaukee picked up a good chunk of his contract, but yeah, not happening.

 

I imagine that the only way Milwaukee would actually move him would be to NOT have to pick up much or any of his contract.

 

But that's the thing, it's a BIG contract but it isn't necessarily a BAD contract. His production has been so high that he has been more than worth the money. Whether the contract is good or bad depends on how you think he'll age. But right now, pending an implosion, it's not an unreasonable price.

[ChiSox59]

I wouldn't even trade Tyler Flowers for him straight up. The Brewers can keep that cheating clown.

 

F that. What someone else said, send em Tank and call it a day. His contract is not even that bad. It actually was quite a steal for the Brewers up until 2014. Still, if he performs anywhere near his past, that is a great value.

 

Braun is douche, no doubt, but he could turn this franchise around in a New York minute. Sign me up. Then trade a mixture of De Aza, Beckham, Santiago and a low level prospect or two for Peter Bourjos and Jason Castro.

 

Bourjous CF

Ramirez SS

Braun LF

Abreu 1B

Dunn DH

Garcia RF

J Castro C

Semien 2B

Gillaspie / Kepp 3B

 

Sign a legit reclaimation project to battle for the 5th spot - Josh Johnson would have been ideal - and that team has a shot at competing next year. Then Dunn is off the books the year after, go out and get a LH middle of the order bat.

[greg775]

I imagine that the only way Milwaukee would actually move him would be to NOT have to pick up much or any of his contract.

 

But that's the thing, it's a BIG contract but it isn't necessarily a BAD contract. His production has been so high that he has been more than worth the money. Whether the contract is good or bad depends on how you think he'll age. But right now, pending an implosion, it's not an unreasonable price.

 

But what about his post drug production? None of his supporters are looking at the inevitable decline after a player stops using drugs.

[brian310]

To the people who hate on him for cheating....Rienzo and Quintana have both failed drug tests when they were in the minors and people are still supporting them...so there's that

[Dick Allen]

I imagine that the only way Milwaukee would actually move him would be to NOT have to pick up much or any of his contract.

 

But that's the thing, it's a BIG contract but it isn't necessarily a BAD contract. His production has been so high that he has been more than worth the money. Whether the contract is good or bad depends on how you think he'll age. But right now, pending an implosion, it's not an unreasonable price.

What is his contract going to look like when he is 35-38? He is signed for 8 more years. 7 if you buy him out. He will make $10 million next year, and if see the responses when Marty mentioned maybe adding that exact figure to the payroll he was told numerous times that is not how you run a business.

 

He wouldn't get nearly what he is guaranteed if he were a free agent right now.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Quin]

To the people who hate on him for cheating....Rienzo and Quintana have both failed drug tests when they were in the minors and people are still supporting them...so there's that

 

If you read about Quintana's, he was a teenager who took something by mistake.

 

Braun is a raging douchebag. I'd be ok with it if it were just the 'roids, but the way he acted after being caught is awful.

 

I'd give up nothing of value for him and the Brew Crew would need to take on a large chunk of change, even then I'd never root for him, only for him to not f*** up the Sox chances.

[greg775]

Nothing nobody already doesn't know.

 

The guy hustles and is very good at baseball. I can't believe how many people would flinch due to personality and past. If the option to get a superstar on the absolute low was available there is no way I'd hesitate.

 

It's really upsetting. We just lost 99 games with a team full of nice guys. Phegley is great guy. Everyone loves Beckham. Dunn is respected in the clubhouse. Konerko has always been a great guy. Axelrod couldn't be any more gracious than he is. It's nice when you're interacting with the players at Spring Training but otherwise who cares? This is an area where everyone should just let the numbers do the talking. It's not like we're talking about a guy who doesn't hustle or is a douchebag to fans. The guy used steroids, like many of our favorite players in the past have, and got caught. The only thing you can fault Braun for is how he handled the situation. He was skeezy and ruthless but the situation is over. The situation is in the past.

 

Not that I find any validity in the story, if we were able to pick up Ryan Braun and cash we should be jumping all over it. You guys need to cut the bulls***. Douchebags are douchebags and every team has them. Nothing that happened to Braun this year and last are going to come back into play. He'll be focusing on his making a new name for himself and staying out of trouble.

 

When I met AJ Pierzynski 9 years ago he literally ignored me. He's signing autographs at SoxFest weeks after he had been signed and I go up to him when it was my turn and asked him a question and he didn't even look up. So I repeated myself. AJ looked up at me, we made eye contact and he still said nothing. I am sure other people here have similar experiences but we all still rooted and adored AJ right?

 

AJ sounds like a dick. I personally would stay away from guys I think have the opportunity to blow up at me. I just don't think you should reward drug users like Ryan B. I'd personally pass and I could see why people would boo a guy like that.

[Eminor3rd]

But what about his post drug production? None of his supporters are looking at the inevitable decline after a player stops using drugs.

 

Actually, SS2K5 and I have exchanged several posts about just that,

 

I assume it'll drop off -- but it would have to fall a LONG way to make the contract bad.

 

The free agent market pays $5-6m per WAR on average. Braun will make between $16-19m per year for the rest of the contract, so he's being paid like a 3-4 WAR player from here on out. His last two full seasons came in at between 7-8 WAR. So even if he got 25-30% worse and lost like 2 WAR, he'd still be worth something like $10m more than his contract each year in comparison to what else we could get with that money.

 

So, from a purely baseball perspective, you can assume he drops of a ton and it would stil be a boon. The point you made remains, however, that he's a total slime bag. So which outcome you root for depends on what you value more.

[greg775]

To the people who hate on him for cheating....Rienzo and Quintana have both failed drug tests when they were in the minors and people are still supporting them...so there's that

 

True. It's a fine line whether we should support the drug users. But to go out and pay that kind of money to a cheater is kind of weird (despite my feelings about Jerry's pocketbooks).

[Dick Allen]

To the people who hate on him for cheating....Rienzo and Quintana have both failed drug tests when they were in the minors and people are still supporting them...so there's that

Yes but not only did he cheat, he threw an innocent person under the bus. The guy actually got death threats all based on Braun's lies. Besides, if you didn't like the Ozzie circus or the ARod circus, you aren't going to like the upcoming Braun circus.

 

If the Brewers want to get rid of him, it speaks volumes. This is not something that is just going to go away in a month. Is that really something you want to gamble $100 million on if you are the White Sox? He isn't going to instantly make the phones ring in the ticket office unless they are season ticket accounts that are disgusted the team acquired such a chooch.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

What is his contract going to look like when he is 35-38? He is signed for 8 more years. 7 if you buy him out. He will make $10 million next year, and if see the responses when Marty mentioned maybe adding that exact figure to the payroll he was told numerous times that is not how you run a business.

 

He wouldn't get nearly what he is guaranteed if he were a free agent right now.

 

This is NOT like what Marty and I were talking about, because this is not a player who will only contribute for 1-2 years and it would be adding a SUBSTANTIAL upgrade rather than a marginal one, so much so that the team's competitive window could actually get a lot closer. While Braun is expensive, he is NOT a market-rate asset -- his level of production offers substantial surplus value.

 

I would support this move because I believe that Braun would remain a star-level producer for at least 4 seasons, and that his decline seasons may see him overpaid but still useful. If you believe otherwise, then I understand why you wouldn't want to add the contract.

[Dick Allen]

Actually, SS2K5 and I have exchanged several posts about just that,

 

I assume it'll drop off -- but it would have to fall a LONG way to make the contract bad.

 

The free agent market pays $5-6m per WAR on average. Braun will make between $16-19m per year for the rest of the contract, so he's being paid like a 3-4 WAR player from here on out. His last two full seasons came in at between 7-8 WAR. So even if he got 25-30% worse and lost like 2 WAR, he'd still be worth something like $10m more than his contract each year in comparison to what else we could get with that money.

 

So, from a purely baseball perspective, you can assume he drops of a ton and it would stil be a boon. The point you made remains, however, that he's a total slime bag. So which outcome you root for depends on what you value more.

He is also getting older. Chances of production droppimg without any help, and from what has been publshed, Braun apparently has been cheating since college, there really is no way to know how far he will tail off if playing clean.

 

[Dick Allen]

This is NOT like what Marty and I were talking about, because this is not a player who will only contribute for 1-2 years and it would be adding a SUBSTANTIAL upgrade rather than a marginal one, so much so that the team's competitive window could actually get a lot closer. While Braun is expensive, he is NOT a market-rate asset -- his level of production offers substantial surplus value.

 

I would support this move because I believe that Braun would remain a star-level producer for at least 4 seasons, and that his decline seasons may see him overpaid but still useful. If you believe otherwise, then I understand why you wouldn't want to add the contract.

I don't know how anyone could say he will remain a star level producer. For one thing, he is going to have to carry this weight around for the rest of his career, and another, he supposedly has been using PEDs since college, so chances are we have never seen what he can do clean.

[ChiSox59]

To the people who hate on him for cheating....Rienzo and Quintana have both failed drug tests when they were in the minors and people are still supporting them...so there's that

 

And Flowers.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't know how anyone could say he will remain a star level producer. For one thing, he is going to have to carry this weight around for the rest of his career, and another, he supposedly has been using PEDs since college, so chances are we have never seen what he can do clean.

 

You may be right, but I think the bolded is way too strong of a statement. The fact is, we don't have much evidence at all of how much PEDs affect performance. And the fact remains that has produced at a HOF rate for the past 3-4 seasons. I certainly think it's reasonable to expect that he might drop off sharply, but I don't think that's any more likely than him having a fairly natural career path from here on out.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

You may be right, but I think the bolded is way too strong of a statement. The fact is, we don't have much evidence at all of how much PEDs affect performance. And the fact remains that has produced at a HOF rate for the past 3-4 seasons. I certainly think it's reasonable to expect that he might drop off sharply, but I don't think that's any more likely than him having a fairly natural career path from here on out.

Melky Cabrera could be a good example. Jose Canseco actually said he wouldn't have been a major leaguer without steroids. I don't think that is something you risk $100 million trying to find out.

[ILMOU]

Don't want his bug-eyed, roider, lying, backstabbing ass on the Sox. Bargain or no.

[Balta1701]

Has anyone stopped to say "Hey, wow, for this to happen the brewers would have to be totally sick of the guy. My word I didn't think that was possible, could he really be that bad?"

[Eminor3rd]

Melky Cabrera could be a good example. Jose Canseco actually said he wouldn't have been a major leaguer without steroids. I don't think that is something you risk $100 million trying to find out.

 

Ryan Braun is SO much better than Melky Cabrera EVER was. And please don't ever base an argument on Jose Canseco's insanity laced opinions.

 

I think the "answer" to PEDs is that they probably affect different guys very differently. I understand your thought that Braun is too big a risk given his contract and think it is reasonable. I fall on the other side because guys that have peaks as high as Braun's tend to age much better and (my opinion) have got to have a high level of natural talent in order to turn out those numbers, roids or not.

[Eminor3rd]

Has anyone stopped to say "Hey, wow, for this to happen the brewers would have to be totally sick of the guy. My word I didn't think that was possible, could he really be that bad?"

 

It's a valid point. I think that it may have to with how horribly bad and horribly small market the Brewers are, though. But you could be right.