Fielder to Texas for Kinsler

[harfman77]

Where did that come from? Is that a new rumor that has been floating around?

 

The Orioles are up against it payroll wise and with Weiters and Davis both being Boras clients that are in their second arb season their is speculation that the Orioles will move one to get payroll flexibility and inject major league ready talent to their system. Can't see them selling on Davis now unless they feel the last 15 months are a fluke.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm sorry guys, I'm not seeing how this is a bad trade for Detroit. Prince is a better hitter but he cost twice as much, is a liability on the basepaths, and was literally the worst defensive first baseman in baseball last year. All of those things are EXTRA important for a team with so many DHs that it forced Miggy to third base (blocking the organization's top prospect) and is so financially hampered that it was trying to trade the reigning AL Cy Young despite clearly being in win-now mode.

 

They got nearly as much (and arguably more) value back in defense and baserunning as they gave up in offense and solved several HUGE problems for their roster. Plus, they are still a great hitting team with a bunch of players who you don't want up with extra baserunners. No way-- this is a huge win for the Tigers.

[harfman77]

I'm sorry guys, I'm not seeing how this is a bad trade for Detroit. Prince is a better hitter but he cost twice as much, is a liability on the basepaths, and was literally the worst defensive first baseman in baseball last year. All of those things are EXTRA important for a team with so many DHs that it forced Miggy to third base (blocking the organization's top prospect) and is so financially hampered that it was trying to trade the reigning AL Cy Young despite clearly being in win-now mode.

 

They got nearly as much (and arguably more) value back in defense and baserunning as they gave up in offense and solved several HUGE problems for their roster. Plus, they are still a great hitting team with a bunch of players who you don't want up with extra baserunners. No way-- this is a huge win for the Tigers.

 

Actually, with the money Detroit is sending, Kinsler will cost more over the next three years. He has not been good away from Arlington, and Detroit has a ballpark that will not play to his strengths. Its not a bad trade for Detroit, but it is a better trade for Texas given that Fielder is built to play in that park.

[Eminor3rd]

Actually, with the money Detroit is sending, Kinsler will cost more over the next three years. He has not been good away from Arlington, and Detroit has a ballpark that will not play to his strengths. Its not a bad trade for Detroit, but it is a better trade for Texas given that Fielder is built to play in that park.

 

How does Kinsler cost more? He has $62m left on his contract and the Tigers sent $30m. Fielder has $168m left.

[Jake]

That offense in Detroit has been progressively getting weaker.

 

Steamer projections for current Tigers:

 

Austin Jackson - 112 wRC+

Torii Hunter - 106 wRC+

Cabrera - 170 wRC+

VMart - 117 wRC+

Avila - 108 wRC+ (up from 92 last year -- I'm dubious)

Kinsler - 110 wRC+, best since 2011

Iglesias - 76 wRC+

Castellanos? - 94 wRC+

Andy Dirks? - 100 wRC+ (up from 89 last season)

 

It's good, but there are a lot of scenarios you can imagine where they are quite a bit worse than projections. Taking Fielder out of that lineup really hurts them for this season as he was the only other truly scary bat -- his BAD season was a 125 wRC+, his career is 140. Now you're looking at a lineup full of guys who are a slight regression away from being at or below league average hitters.

 

You're also relying on Torii Hunter not aging, Avila rallying back, Kinsler stepping up, and unknowns like Castellanos putting up numbers (they might have someone else in mind, I'm not sure) and Andy Dirks being a good player.

 

There are going to be some real holes in that batting order in all likelihood. Take Miggy out of the middle with injury or something and it is nothing remarkable. That pitching will really have to stay good. Having lots of league average hitters is no sin and is really the hallmark of a great offense - but a guy like Iglesias is likely to be a horrible hitter, Castellanos could be that bad, Dirks might be that bad if he has to play every day, Avila might be that bad already, etc.

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Actually, with the money Detroit is sending, Kinsler will cost more over the next three years. He has not been good away from Arlington, and Detroit has a ballpark that will not play to his strengths. Its not a bad trade for Detroit, but it is a better trade for Texas given that Fielder is built to play in that park.

 

#1) Kinsler is a more valuable player, Detroit is just covering some of the difference in costs. They don't mind paying him more than Fielder.

#2) Michael Young was labeled a product of Arlington; he was awful in 2012 and then somehow put up better numbers outside of Arlington this year. He's older, but I don't see there being much difference.

#3) Texas is paying a generally inconsistent, out of shape, unathletic 1B $20+ million a year until like 2020. Compare Ryan Howard to Prince Fielder and tell me how you don't see a similar fate occurring.

 

I love this trade for Detroit.

[Eminor3rd]

That offense in Detroit has been progressively getting weaker.

 

Steamer projections for current Tigers:

 

Austin Jackson - 112 wRC+

Torii Hunter - 106 wRC+

Cabrera - 170 wRC+

VMart - 117 wRC+

Avila - 108 wRC+ (up from 92 last year -- I'm dubious)

Kinsler - 110 wRC+, best since 2011

Iglesias - 76 wRC+

Castellanos? - 94 wRC+

Andy Dirks? - 100 wRC+ (up from 89 last season)

 

It's good, but there are a lot of scenarios you can imagine where they are quite a bit worse than projections. Taking Fielder out of that lineup really hurts them for this season as he was the only other truly scary bat -- his BAD season was a 125 wRC+, his career is 140. Now you're looking at a lineup full of guys who are a slight regression away from being at or below league average hitters.

 

You're also relying on Torii Hunter not aging, Avila rallying back, Kinsler stepping up, and unknowns like Castellanos putting up numbers (they might have someone else in mind, I'm not sure) and Andy Dirks being a good player.

 

There are going to be some real holes in that batting order in all likelihood. Take Miggy out of the middle with injury or something and it is nothing remarkable. That pitching will really have to stay good. Having lots of league average hitters is no sin and is really the hallmark of a great offense - but a guy like Iglesias is likely to be a horrible hitter, Castellanos could be that bad, Dirks might be that bad if he has to play every day, Avila might be that bad already, etc.

 

Defense is improving massively as the offense bleeds

[LittleHurt05]

Defense is improving massively as the offense bleeds

 

And money is being freed up to re-sign the reigning Cy Young award winner.

[harfman77]

How does Kinsler cost more? He has $62m left on his contract and the Tigers sent $30m. Fielder has $168m left.

 

You are right, Kinsler is $9M cheaper than Fielder over the life of his deal as he is scheduled to make $57M through 2017 and Fielder will be paid $66M thanks to the offset of money from the Tigers. What it will cost the Tigers to replace Kinsler for the rest of Fielders contract, anyone could guess.

[harfman77]

#1) Kinsler is a more valuable player, Detroit is just covering some of the difference in costs. They don't mind paying him more than Fielder.

#2) Michael Young was labeled a product of Arlington; he was awful in 2012 and then somehow put up better numbers outside of Arlington this year. He's older, but I don't see there being much difference.

#3) Texas is paying a generally inconsistent, out of shape, unathletic 1B $20+ million a year until like 2020. Compare Ryan Howard to Prince Fielder and tell me how you don't see a similar fate occurring.

 

I love this trade for Detroit.

 

I think people look at Prince and make up their mind about what he is, but from watching him, he is much more athletic than people give him credit for and every year, every team he has been on comments on how he shows up to camp in shape and ready to go.

 

If you want difference between him and Howard, look at GP's. Prince has been ultra durable while Howard has been anything but. I think that Arlington is a perfect fit for Prince.

 

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

528 2131 314 515 106 8 71 246 202 315 80 20 .242 .312 .399 .710 Kinsler away split

991 4055 506 1151 220 23 79 460 262 656 49 13 .284 .326 .408 .734 Young away split

 

Similar, but Youngs were still better. I don't know I would be excited about giving up a middle of the order bat for a young(er) Michael Young either.

[witesoxfan]

I think people look at Prince and make up their mind about what he is, but from watching him, he is much more athletic than people give him credit for and every year, every team he has been on comments on how he shows up to camp in shape and ready to go.

 

If you want difference between him and Howard, look at GP's. Prince has been ultra durable while Howard has been anything but. I think that Arlington is a perfect fit for Prince.

 

Similar, but Youngs were still better. I don't know I would be excited about giving up a middle of the order bat for a young(er) Michael Young either.

 

I knew that the athletic mark would be taken that way. All major league players are going to have superior athletic qualities. I'm quite sure Prince Fielder would beat the average man in a 40 yard or 100 meter sprint. He can probably run farther and faster than most can too. The fact is, he's fat. I'm sure there's a lot of muscle under there too, but he's fat. Fat people do not age well, no matter how athletic they are. Hell, athletic people don't age well either - look at what's happened to Pujols in his age 32 and 33 seasons.

 

Detroit got out of a huge commitment and brought in a guy who is probably going to be just as valuable at his position as Fielder was. He's also signed to a lesser deal, they get younger across the diamond, and they get better defensively across the diamond.

 

Also, Michael Young was a stud in his younger days and an incredibly valuable player.

[Eminor3rd]

You are right, Kinsler is $9M cheaper than Fielder over the life of his deal as he is scheduled to make $57M through 2017 and Fielder will be paid $66M thanks to the offset of money from the Tigers. What it will cost the Tigers to replace Kinsler for the rest of Fielders contract, anyone could guess.

 

Haha that's ONE way to look at it, I guess. You should be an agent

 

The thing is though, that the latter years of the contract are the ones that are crappy. You are essentially "loaned" surplus value up front that you pay back at a fixed rate, even when it's an overpay. So the Tigers got a disproportionately high amount of the value of Fielder compared to what they ultimately paid. Whatever the Tigers have to do to replace Kinsler will presumably NOT be taking on the dregs portion of a player's performance as it would be with Fielder. So even if they spend the same amount of money, by spending it on the front half of a contract twice, they come out ahead.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

I think people look at Prince and make up their mind about what he is, but from watching him, he is much more athletic than people give him credit for and every year, every team he has been on comments on how he shows up to camp in shape and ready to go.

 

Sure, he is much more athletic than he seems like he should be.

 

But he's still the worst defensive first baseman in the Majors and one of the worst runners. So his athleticism isn't amounting to much

[Dick Allen]

The one thing this deal does show is the money in Detroit is starting to dry up a bit. Illitch is pretty close to his ceiling

[LittleHurt05]

The one thing this deal does show is the money in Detroit is starting to dry up a bit. Illitch is pretty close to his ceiling

 

Yeah, I was surprised when they had talked about trading Scherzer. I assumed the sky was the limit to get Illitch his WS ring.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Haha that's ONE way to look at it, I guess. You should be an agent

 

The thing is though, that the latter years of the contract are the ones that are crappy. You are essentially "loaned" surplus value up front that you pay back at a fixed rate, even when it's an overpay. So the Tigers got a disproportionately high amount of the value of Fielder compared to what they ultimately paid. Whatever the Tigers have to do to replace Kinsler will presumably NOT be taking on the dregs portion of a player's performance as it would be with Fielder. So even if they spend the same amount of money, by spending it on the front half of a contract twice, they come out ahead.

 

 

The back end of that deal will be bad but if Prince Fielder has 3-4 great seasons in which Texas wins a WS in one of those seasons, it's probably worth it. I have this argument about Dunn all the time. Fielder is overpaid but there aren't many LH hitters with 35-40 HR power anymore.

[Andy the Clown]

Which is why I hate the deal for Detroit. Like him or not prince was good protection for Miggy. He wasn't the problem.

 

+1

 

Everyone is bashing the Rangers and loving on Detroit, but the fact is that Detroit just substantially decreased its odds of winning now for the sake of long-term financial flexibility. So, as a Sox fan I'm happy to see it.

 

Also, Detroit is getting out of a stupid long-term deal so they can give Miggy and Max stupid long-term deals.

[witesoxfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-...tion-look-like/

 

If you put Victor Martinez or Ian Kinsler or Torii Hunter or [free agent signing] behind Miguel Cabrera, do you think teams are going to go out of their way on a regular basis to face a hitter who is still pretty damn good, who is followed by another hitter who is still pretty damn good?

 

I really don't think the protection thing is that big of a deal.

[flavum]

Among others, Denny McLain is saying Avisail Garcia was banging Prince's wife. Which would mean Avi also cheated on his pregnant wife. Yeesh.

 

http://deadspin.com/denny-mclain-says-dome...dium=socialflow

[Melissa1334]

Among others, Denny McLain is saying Avisail Garcia was banging Prince's wife. Which would mean Avi also cheated on his pregnant wife. Yeesh.

 

http://deadspin.com/denny-mclain-says-dome...dium=socialflow

Thought it was weird that I saw a pic today of fielder with his family in texas and she was there ,pic

[Chicago White Sox]

Among others, Denny McLain is saying Avisail Garcia was banging Prince's wife. Which would mean Avi also cheated on his pregnant wife. Yeesh.

 

http://deadspin.com/denny-mclain-says-dome...dium=socialflow

I'm not one to need athletes to be role models or even good people, but if this story is true it's definitely a bit worrisome. The one thing you need in a professional locker room is trust amongst one another and to be f***ing a teammate's wife is pretty much as low as it gets. I really hope this is all bulls***.

[Melissa1334]

I'm not one to need athletes to be role models or even good people, but if this story is true it's definitely a bit worrisome. The one thing you need in a professional locker room is trust amongst one another and to be f***ing a teammate's wife is pretty much as low as it gets. I really hope this is all bulls***.

I doubt it, and someone mentioned how when the sox played the tigers and Avisail made it to first they were talking like nothing. I don't think u can forgive something like that lol

[Jake]

It's troublesome and bad -- but these things can be forgiven. I don't expect Prince and Avisail to be buddies, but a lot of guys (especially athletes) are pretty sympathetic to infidelity. Even if guys really don't like what he did to Prince, there's no reason he shouldn't fit in in this locker room. One assumes he has probably learned a lesson. Sounds like he did a s***ty thing to his wife, but that's his and her problem. A lot of pro athlete couples have an understanding about these things and others don't...they can figure that out. Avisail is just a kid and if this is his big youthful mistake, I'll deal with it.

[Whitewashed in '05]

It's troublesome and bad -- but these things can be forgiven. I don't expect Prince and Avisail to be buddies, but a lot of guys (especially athletes) are pretty sympathetic to infidelity. Even if guys really don't like what he did to Prince, there's no reason he shouldn't fit in in this locker room. One assumes he has probably learned a lesson. Sounds like he did a s***ty thing to his wife, but that's his and her problem. A lot of pro athlete couples have an understanding about these things and others don't...they can figure that out. Avisail is just a kid and if this is his big youthful mistake, I'll deal with it.

Obviously we don't know if the story is actually true or not, but I wouldn't as far as "letting him get away with it" for doing that (not that you're saying that). If they were teammates on their high school baseball team it would be more understandable, but Avisail is not necessarily a kid. He's twenty something year old man. Should know that's not something you do.

[pettie4sox]

Man ole' man. Reality TV baseball.