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Royals sign Jason Vargas


JoshPR

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QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 02:51 PM)
4 years?! Are they nuts? He's isn't even that good of a pitcher. I can't imagine what Garza and Santana must be thinking. If the demand for mediocre pitchers is that high the Sox should make off with a nice hall if the trade one of Santiago/Q.

That's why Hahn is being patient. He's going to see a lot of high contracts signed by a lot of mediocre players and when GM's come calling looking for a Sox pitcher he can compare them to guys who just signed big deals like Vargas to accentuate the point that our guy(s) are worth substantially more then what's being offered.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 09:43 PM)
There is sure some overpaying for middle of the road talent so far

That's one of the only 2 things available on the Fa market these days. That or huge priced talent. In either case it ought to be the guy you think you need to put you over the top.

 

You might find bargains in Jan and Feb.

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I feel like I'm regurgitating Dave Cameron all the time now, but he has been on a kick lately about pointing out that teams are essentially giving out (x) year deals and expecting (x-y) years out of them, essentially trading lower yearly costs for extra years on top. He's speculated that teams are willing to give out 8-10 years to guys for $20-25 mill rather than pay them full price, which would range between $30-40 mill per year. Much of it has to do with fitting under the luxury tax or budgetary thresholds. If you can get surplus value initially, you'll take the loss later on because you will presumably be making up for that value with the next guy in line.

 

It's surely not efficient, but that's why free agency is not meant to build teams but rather to supplement teams. Yes, if you can get a young, potential superstar, you can sign that, but this theory is exactly why signing a guy like Granderson to a multi-year deal is so crazy. The Sox would get his 3-5 WAR seasons (optimistically projecting) while the team struggles, and they'd get the 1-3 WAR seasons while they're looking to compete. You want to attempt to sign someone where you'll get value in 2 years or so to actually make the signing process more effecient.

 

On the level of bringing in a high-priced player, the most extreme the Sox should really look is someone like Matt Kemp. He's got about 6 years and $120 mill left (didn't look at the specifics of his deal). He's been injury prone, but in years 3 and 4, he'd hypothetically still be putting up 5 WAR seasons. Of course, they'd have to trade for him, but the Dodgers could realistically move him. I think the Dodgers would be more likely to move Ethier or Crawford. The Sox should want nothing to do with either of those two.

 

I still want nothing to do with Kemp, BTW.

 

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:33 PM)
Last two years

Vargas 2.3

Salty 5.5

Yeah, but Vargas has 3 out of 4 over 1.5. Salty is primarily based on one season. Judging by what you supposedly are supposed to pay per WAR, this contract isn't so out of line. Any time you give a pitcher 4 years, it is a gamble.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:26 PM)
Last 4 years, Vargas 7.2 WAR. Last 4 years, Salty 7.3 WAR, yet Vargas sucks a crazy overpay at 4 years $32 million and Salty is worth 4 years and $40 million. Explain.

You've got to be the king of cherry-picking stats. Why don't we look at just the last 3 years? Salty at 7.1 vs Vargas at 4.5.

 

Or how about the last 2 years? Salty at 5.5 vs Vargas at 2.3. Or maybe just last year? Salty at 3.6 vs Vargas at 1.5.

 

Nope, let's purposely include the year (2010) when Salty had 30 plate appearances in order to make some bogus claim. We all get you think Salty sucks. Do you really have to derail a completed unrelated thread with this nonsense?

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:43 PM)
You've got to be the king of cherry-picking stats. Why don't we look at just the last 3 years? Salty at 7.1 vs Vargas at 4.5.

 

Or how about the last 2 years? Salty at 5.5 vs Vargas at 2.3. Or maybe just last year? Salty at 3.6 vs Vargas at 1.5.

 

Nope, let's purposely include the year (2010) when Salty had 30 plate appearances in order to make some bogus claim. We all get you think Salty sucks. Do you really have to derail a completed unrelated thread with this nonsense?

The bottom lime is this guy has averaged 1.8 WAR the last 4 years. I have read WAR is worth $5 million to $6 million per. So the last 4 years he has been worth at least $36 million, so why is this an overpay.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 22, 2013 -> 12:43 AM)
You've got to be the king of cherry-picking stats. Why don't we look at just the last 3 years? Salty at 7.1 vs Vargas at 4.5.

 

Or how about the last 2 years? Salty at 5.5 vs Vargas at 2.3. Or maybe just last year? Salty at 3.6 vs Vargas at 1.5.

 

Nope, let's purposely include the year (2010) when Salty had 30 plate appearances in order to make some bogus claim. We all get you think Salty sucks. Do you really have to derail a completed unrelated thread with this nonsense?

 

Lol, he had 30 PA in 2010, yet he included that season to make a point? lol, that's some real bias in numbers there.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:40 PM)
Yeah, but Vargas has 3 out of 4 over 1.5. Salty is primarily based on one season. Judging by what you supposedly are supposed to pay per WAR, this contract isn't so out of line. Any time you give a pitcher 4 years, it is a gamble.

Lol...keep spinning this every way you can. Despite your claim that Salty's value is primarily based on one season, his WARs in 2011 & 2012 would still be higher than Vargas's WARs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Regardless, this is such a ridiculous argument on so many levels.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:49 PM)
Lol...keep spinning this every way you can. Despite your claim that Salty's value is primarily based on one season, his WARs in 2011 & 2012 would still be higher than Vargas's WARs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Regardless, this is such a ridiculous argument on so many levels.

No spin. I,m just saying if this guy isn't worth what he got, Salty isn't worth 25% more.based on WAR, you have to admit the yearly salary isn't out of line.and his value is based on 1 season. He was 3.6 this year. 6.9 for his career.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 10:49 PM)
Lol...keep spinning this every way you can. Despite your claim that Salty's value is primarily based on one season, his WARs in 2011 & 2012 would still be higher than Vargas's WARs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Regardless, this is such a ridiculous argument on so many levels.

Almost as ridiculous as giving Roy Oswalt $5 million.

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