Twins Continue To Improve Rotation

[Jose Abreu]

"The Twins have agreed to a three-year, $24MM deal with Phil Hughes, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. A source with knowledge of the talks tells Neal that the Twins are expected to announce the deal this week, with Hughes expected to undergo a physical as early as this weekend.

 

A still-young 27, Hughes appears to have succeeded in translating the promise of his stuff into a larger contract than many projected. While he's steadily maintained his low-90s velocity since breaking into the big leagues in 2007, Hughes owns a career 4.54 ERA in more than 780 innings."

 

I still think they have the worst ALC rotation, but they're steadily climbing towards the fourth-best.

[DirtySox]

I like both pitching signings they've made so far, but they still have some work to do with that roster. They could be in nice shape soon with Buxton and Sano on the way in a year or so.

[Jose Abreu]

Also, "According to the Minnesota Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal, the Twins are making progress on signing A.J. Pierzynski."

[TheFutureIsNear]

Good to see the Twins spending $ to make sure they can compete with us and the Royals for 3rd place in the ALC

[BlackSox13]

Nolasco and Hughes should be an impressive 1-2 punch in that park, especially if AJ is calling games.

[Jake]

Good to see the Twins spending $ to make sure they can compete with us and the Royals for 3rd place in the ALC

 

I have no clue why you'd assume Cleveland is on some higher level than the rest of us. Very flawed club

[LittleHurt05]

Nolasco and Hughes should be an impressive 1-2 punch in that park, especially if AJ is calling games.

 

[BlackSox13]

What's to lol about? AJ knows how to call a game and target field is a pitchers park that would benefit Nolasco and especially Hughes.

[Jose Abreu]

What's to lol about? AJ knows how to call a game and target field is a pitchers park that would benefit Nolasco and especially Hughes.

I think the is about Nolasco and Hughes being a 1-2 punch. I can see Nolasco being a 3.60 (DH now) and Hughes a 4.25. Probably didn't have much to do about A.J.

[BlackSox13]

I think the is about Nolasco and Hughes being a 1-2 punch. I can see Nolasco being a 3.60 (DH now) and Hughes a 4.25. Probably didn't have much to do about A.J.

Guess I still don't get it. Maybe I'm over estimating their potential but I can see those two helping the twins quite a bit. Compared to last years rotation, Nolasco and Hughes offer a potentially huge upgrade. I admit I might be giving more credit than what's due.

Edited December 1, 2013 by StRoostifer

[LittleHurt05]

I think the is about Nolasco and Hughes being a 1-2 punch. I can see Nolasco being a 3.60 (DH now) and Hughes a 4.25. Probably didn't have much to do about A.J.

 

Exactly. Phil Hughes is bad and Nolasco is Javy Vazquez version 2.0. If that's your 1-2 punch, good luck winning 70 games.

[sircaffey]

Why is Ricky Nolasco good? He's been a career disappointment since 2008.

[BlackSox13]

Why is Ricky Nolasco good? He's been a career disappointment since 2008.

A lot of pitchers would be after being stuck playing for the Marlins and Hughes pitched in Yankee stadium while showing some signs of being good here and there. Again, compared to the Twins rotation last year these guys have more to offer and Target Field is a pitchers paradise.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I have no clue why you'd assume Cleveland is on some higher level than the rest of us. Very flawed club

 

Yeah true, wouldn't shock me if they only won 80 next year. Either way, the Twins aren't serious playoff contenders despite how many mediocre SP's they sign

[iamshack]

You guys do have to admit that Hughes offers a high reward...he's been bad for awhile but he's also been dominant at times...

[Balta1701]

You guys do have to admit that Hughes offers a high reward...he's been bad for awhile but he's also been dominant at times...

I mean, lots of guys can string together "a bunch of good games in a row". Through his first 11 starts last year, Dylan Axelrod had a 3.73 ERA, .704 OPS against him, and .275 BABIP (so not obviously due to collapse bases on luck).

 

When I look at Hughes's numbers, he was really good out of the bullpen in 2009 but aside from that he's been average in a couple years (2010, 2012) and pretty rotten in a couple years (2011, 2013). That's not "dominant at times" in my book, when he puts up an average season his total looks pretty good because he's had those Yankee offenses turning average performances into wins.

 

In his best seasons he's a lot like "average gavin floyd". one big difference though is that aside from "torn up elbow last year" floyd has never put up full seasons anywhere near as bad as Hughes's down years.

 

If they can get a couple of his good years out of him, they'll get good value out of his contract, and if somehow they have a pitching coach who can turn him around there's some upside there, but it looks to me like he's a guy who can fill space at the back of a rotation.

[iamshack]

I mean, lots of guys can string together "a bunch of good games in a row". Through his first 11 starts last year, Dylan Axelrod had a 3.73 ERA, .704 OPS against him, and .275 BABIP (so not obviously due to collapse bases on luck).

 

When I look at Hughes's numbers, he was really good out of the bullpen in 2009 but aside from that he's been average in a couple years (2010, 2012) and pretty rotten in a couple years (2011, 2013). That's not "dominant at times" in my book, when he puts up an average season his total looks pretty good because he's had those Yankee offenses turning average performances into wins.

 

In his best seasons he's a lot like "average gavin floyd". one big difference though is that aside from "torn up elbow last year" floyd has never put up full seasons anywhere near as bad as Hughes's down years.

 

If they can get a couple of his good years out of him, they'll get good value out of his contract, and if somehow they have a pitching coach who can turn him around there's some upside there, but it looks to me like he's a guy who can fill space at the back of a rotation.

He pitched great in 2009 and then the first half of 2010 he was incredible...I can't remember what ultimately derailed him, but it was much better than a bunch of good games in a row and much better than this Axelrod example. To compare him to Dylan is a joke to begin with. Hughes was the best prospect in baseball at one time.

[Balta1701]

He pitched great in 2009 and then the first half of 2010 he was incredible...I can't remember what ultimately derailed him, but it was much better than a bunch of good games in a row and much better than this Axelrod example. To compare him to Dylan is a joke to begin with. Hughes was the best prospect in baseball at one time.

Hughes was great out of the bullpen in 2009, bad out of the rotation. 1.40 ERA in the bullpen, 5.45 ERA in 7 starts.

 

In 2010 he put up an ERA of 3.65 in the first half. That's pretty far from incredible...and it's pretty much dominated by 6 good starts to open the season. From May 17 through the AS break he put up an ERA over 5. He went 8-2 in that stretch because Yankees. He had 6 stellar starts to open that year, put up a 1.38 ERA over that stretch, and then immediately went to being mediocre. Basically he did a "Gavin Floyd" that season - had an average year and then made his numbers look better thanks to a short streak of being incredible.

 

He actually didn't last a full 7 innings once in the entire 2nd half that year.

 

Whether or not he was the best prospect in baseball...Even his best season is only slightly better than iffy. I'd say that bringing up his prospect status after more than half a decade of not being a prospect is quite a bit worse of a joke than comparing him to Axelrod.

[iamshack]

Hughes was great out of the bullpen in 2009, bad out of the rotation. 1.40 ERA in the bullpen, 5.45 ERA in 7 starts.

 

In 2010 he put up an ERA of 3.65 in the first half. That's pretty far from incredible...and it's pretty much dominated by 6 good starts to open the season. From May 17 through the AS break he put up an ERA over 5. He went 8-2 in that stretch because Yankees. He had 6 stellar starts to open that year, put up a 1.38 ERA over that stretch, and then immediately went to being mediocre. Basically he did a "Gavin Floyd" that season - had an average year and then made his numbers look better thanks to a short streak of being incredible.

 

He actually didn't last a full 7 innings once in the entire 2nd half that year.

 

Whether or not he was the best prospect in baseball...Even his best season is only slightly better than iffy. I'd say that bringing up his prospect status after more than half a decade of not being a prospect is quite a bit worse of a joke than comparing him to Axelrod.

You're right, Balta. He and Axelrod may as well be twin brothers.

[Balta1701]

You're right, Balta. He and Axelrod may as well be twin brothers.

And he was the number one prospect. He's another Verlander right now.

 

Gmab. I outline all that and that's the best you've got?

[Dick Allen]

I am not sold on Hughes and Nolasco making a huge difference, but Hughes should be helped immediately by moving out of the Bandbox known as Yankee Stadium. His career ERA is almost a run lower on the road and he gives up about half as many homers.

[sircaffey]

I'd say that bringing up his prospect status after more than half a decade of not being a prospect is quite a bit worse of a joke than comparing him to Axelrod.

No it's not. Phil's still just 27, has dealt with injuries, and prospect status actually tells you something about his tools. A comparison to Kenny Powers would have been more accurate than one to Dylan Axelrod.

[iamshack]

And he was the number one prospect. He's another Verlander right now.

 

Gmab. I outline all that and that's the best you've got?

Well to be honest, I don't have the energy to spend 30 minutes researching s*** so I can spar with you about an offhand comment on a message board. If you want to do that, it's your life.

 

Phil Hughes at one point had some dynamic stuff; I know he's lost velocity at different points in his career, and seems to be a bit of a head case, but he's also capable of doing things Dylan Axelrod can only dream about. Has he put it all together over an extended period of time? Perhaps not. Is it wise to sign the guy for 3 years at 8 million? I doubt it. But at the same time, I'm not going to sit here with all the other White Sox homers and pile on the Twins without at least admitting this guy has some big time potential.

 

I'll bet you figured Francisco Liriano was just another Dylan Axelrod after he left here too though...

[witesoxfan]

It appears that Hughes started working with a slider this year opposed to a curveball. Some of his struggles could be him adjusting to a new pitch or it could be due to injury that he wanted to switch. His velocity remained pretty steady, so I'm guessing it's not injury.

 

His BABIP was higher than usual (.324), his LOB% was lower than usual (68%), and his FIP remained relatively unchanged. I think he's an average to below average starting pitcher with potential to be better. At the price they paid, the Twins are expecting 4-5 WAR out of Hughes over the life of the deal. It's a signing made with upside in mind. Frankly, they can let him start for the first two years of the deal and, if no development is made as a starting pitcher, they can move him back to the bullpen where he's proven to be an effective pitcher with the intent to deal him at the deadline.

 

It's a good, if unspectacular signing.

[Kyyle23]

I think they're both decent signings but heir other starters are still terrible. Who are they exactly? Kevin Correia? Scott Diamond? Deduno? Hendriks?

 

Is Alex Meyer still a year off?

 

Diamond is pretty good. Correia isnt that bad either. They dont have a true ace, but they have a nice rotation