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Lobaton traded to Nats


Eminor3rd

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QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:50 PM)
Yep, it gives you someone that can face tough righties and not have Flowers or Phegley severely over-matched in those situations.

 

If this trade happens, I could realistically see a 2.5 - 3 WAR out of a Flowers/Lobaton platoon if they are used correctly. That's not too bad at less than $2 million in combined salary.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:52 PM)
I really think it's ridiculous that people say a guy has a 2.0 bWAR so if he replaced a 0.0 bWAR the team would have won 2 more games. If the number is so accurate, the final standings would perfectly reflect every team's collective bWARs, correct?

 

I think they should just cancel the playoffs, forget about standings and just hand out a bWAR trophy at the end of the year.

 

Sabermetrics is a big part of baseball, but to think these numbers are the end all is ridiculous. People like to mention xFIP for pitchers. Did you know Gavin Floyd had a better career xFIP than Mark Buehrle? Who would you rather have on the mound?

 

Yes, that's not quite accurate as there can be deviation, but they are solid. A guy with a 2.5 WAR and a guy with a 2.3 WAR are, for all intents and purposes, the same value, but the difference between a 2 WAR and 0 WAR is significant.

 

Regardless, the Sox are not going to go from a 99 loss team to an 85 win team solely due to the presence of AJ Pierzynski.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:59 PM)
One thing that really concerns me is TB seems to know what they are doing. If this guy is a decent platoon guy or more, why did they spend so much money (if you consider the extension and assumming Bell's money plus paying Molina some cash)to get away from this guy? Maddon is the platoon king.

 

Hannigan and Molina will platoon.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:04 PM)
I hope it stays that way.

It all depends on the price. It never hurts to have something more to look at during spring training. You need a lot of catchers then. I don't think if the Sox acquired him they would be insulting fans' intelligence and gushing about his upside. It's a minor acquistion.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Baron @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:38 PM)
He said nothing about this being part of the 3 way trade in the first place

 

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:43 PM)
I never said he did? How about you check the thread title that holds the misinformation?

 

Hey dudes, it says it on MLBTR -- I just figured you would all like to know. Does the question mark in the title not imply uncertainty?

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Salty 2007-2013: .738 Career WAR: 6.2 Projected Salary: 10-12 million

 

Lobaton 2013 OPS: .714 2013 WAR: 1.4 Projected Salary: Around league minimum

 

Only took 2013 for Lobaton b/c it was the only year he had 200+ PA

 

 

I'd rather save the 30-40 million it'd cost to get Salty and go with a cheaper option like Lobaton or Jaso, or try out Flow/Phegley for one more year.

 

You rebuild through smart trades and the farm, not FA signings. Salty would not make a whole lot of sense considering where we are at the moment.

 

You sign someone like Salty when you are close to competing, and need to fill a hole or two. We too many holes at C, 2B, 3B, LF/CF (depends if Tank and ADA can give you 1.5 WAR+), and in the pen to justify a large signing like Salty. Abreu was different because he is 26, and it is rare to get someone with his potential for under 100 million.

 

Gain some high draft picks, develop the farm, play the kids.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...d=2897873

We're not the Yanks or the RSox. We have to be like the Cardinals, whose core is their players they developed (molina, adams, carpenter, craig, jay, not to mention their pitching staff) and add guys like Holliday, Peralta, and Beltran when they're close to competing.

Edited by professa
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:52 PM)
I really think it's ridiculous that people say a guy has a 2.0 bWAR so if he replaced a 0.0 bWAR the team would have won 2 more games. If the number is so accurate, the final standings would perfectly reflect every team's collective bWARs, correct?

 

I think they should just cancel the playoffs, forget about standings and just hand out a bWAR trophy at the end of the year.

 

Sabermetrics is a big part of baseball, but to think these numbers are the end all is ridiculous. People like to mention xFIP for pitchers. Did you know Gavin Floyd had a better career xFIP than Mark Buehrle? Who would you rather have on the mound?

 

You are CONSTANTLY deriding these metrics by using them in a context for which they are NOT meant to be used. These numbers are only inaccurate if you insist on asking them to do things they are not designed to do. They are NOT "the end all," whatever that even means, and absolutely nobody is claiming otherwise.

 

The reason no one has EVER suggested that we "cancel the playoffs and give a WAR trophy" is because that's totally ridiculous. WAR exists in order to allow us to try to compare the sum of different players' contributions under a common frame of reference -- and that is EXACTLY how lasttrip just used it, and it lended an interesting insight to the discussion. It was never meant to be able to predict team W-L records or to imply that adding X player will add exactly Y wins to a team. It is a metric that STRIPS CONTEXT and it would therefore be ridiculous to expect it to hold up when context is introduced.

 

It gives us a frame of reference, DA. That's it. Please stop pretending it's not useful just because it can be misapplied.

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QUOTE (professa @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:19 PM)
Salty 2007-2013: .738 Career WAR: 6.2 Projected Salary: 10-12 million

 

Lobaton 2013 OPS: .714 2013 WAR: 1.4 Projected Salary: Around league minimum

 

Only took 2013 for Lobaton b/c it was the only year he had 200+ PA

 

 

I'd rather save the 30-40 million it'd cost to get Salty and go with a cheaper option like Lobaton or Jaso, or try out Flow/Phegley for one more year.

 

You rebuild through smart trades and the farm, not FA signings. Salty would not make a whole lot of sense considering where we are at the moment.

 

You sign someone like Salty when you are close to competing and need to fill a hole or two. We have holes a C, 2B, 3B, LF/CF (depends if Tank and ADA can give you 1.5 WAR+), and in the pen.

 

Gain some high draft picks, develop the farm, play the kids.

 

We're not the Yanks or the RSox. We have to be like the Cardinals, whose core is their players they developed (molina, adams, carpenter, craig, jay, not to mention their pitching staff) and add guys like Holliday, Peralta, and Beltran when they're close to competing.

Nothing to worry about. Salty is going to Miami.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 04:22 PM)
VERY interesting...

 

You'd have to figure Miami is only interested if he was a bargain, thus making you wonder why we didn't get involved further.

Or Bud Selig is at their throats demanding they spend money on something.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:22 PM)
VERY interesting...

 

You'd have to figure Miami is only interested if he was a bargain, thus making you wonder why we didn't get involved further.

 

I remember asking Dan Hayes at the start of free agency if we had interest in him. The answer was lukewarm interest....always wondered why it wasnt more.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:20 PM)
You are CONSTANTLY deriding these metrics by using them in a context for which they are NOT meant to be used. These numbers are only inaccurate if you insist on asking them to do things they are not designed to do. They are NOT "the end all," whatever that even means, and absolutely nobody is claiming otherwise.

 

The reason no one has EVER suggested that we "cancel the playoffs and give a WAR trophy" is because that's totally ridiculous. WAR exists in order to allow us to try to compare the sum of different players' contributions under a common frame of reference -- and that is EXACTLY how lasttrip just used it, and it lended an interesting insight to the discussion. It was never meant to be able to predict team W-L records or to imply that adding X player will add exactly Y wins to a team. It is a metric that STRIPS CONTEXT and it would therefore be ridiculous to expect it to hold up when context is introduced.

 

It gives us a frame of reference, DA. That's it. Please stop pretending it's not useful just because it can be misapplied.

That's a reference. If it isn't meant for W-L maybe you should mention it when someone says "his war was 2.0, the Sox catchers was -1.0, the Sox wouldn't have won 63 games, they would have won 66. I am not the one misusing it. I never said it wasn't useful. In fact, just the opposite. It is being misused in a big way, and a few of the people who misuse it know better, but do it anyway to try to make a point.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:29 PM)
That's a reference. If it isn't meant for W-L maybe you should mention it when someone says "his war was 2.0, the Sox catchers was -1.0, the Sox wouldn't have won 63 games, they would have won 66. I am not the one misusing it. I never said it wasn't useful. In fact, just the opposite. It is being misused in a big way, and a few of the people who misuse it know better, but do it anyway to try to make a point.

 

I agree with everything you just said -- I just don't see how the old "cancel the playoffs and give a WAR trophy" strawman is a useful illustration. But I see what you meant by it now.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 03:50 PM)
I am sure by the time I post this SS2K5 will already have posted but...

 

Marc Topkin

@TBTimes_Rays: No Lobaton deal for now. #Rays Friedman said catching situation will sort itself out, that its not ideal but they could to go to spring w/all 3

 

You couldn't have been more accurate

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 02:50 PM)
I am sure by the time I post this SS2K5 will already have posted but...

 

Marc Topkin

@TBTimes_Rays: No Lobaton deal for now. #Rays Friedman said catching situation will sort itself out, that its not ideal but they could to go to spring w/all 3

 

Yeah, back to Jaso, then Salty, in that order, I hope.

Edited by Stan Bahnsen
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