Sox acquire Adam Eaton from ARZ, deal Santiago, Jacobs

[royoung]

Somehow people have totally begun to stop appreciating Johnson's ceiling. He could be what we normally call a number 2 starter.

 

+1. Johnson>Santiago

 

[Andy the Clown]

Ultimately, regardless of the return, I come back to this thought - the Sox had 4 MLB starters with 2-3 more coming up the pipeline. You aren't going to deal Sale without a monstrosity of a package and, frankly, I don't think the odds of a deal for Sale have changed all that much. If the Sox are overwhelmed, they will move him; otherwise, there's no need for it at this point in time. That leaves you with Quintana, Danks, and Santiago.

 

Quintana has been a revelation, but he also took steps forward last year. His ground ball rate went down slightly while his flyball rate went up slightly, but they are both still within solid, acceptable levels. His strikeout rate increased by 2 per 9 IP and he actually decreased his walk rate, so his overall K/BB increased by 1 (from 1.93 to 2.93). That sort of efficiency led him to strand a few more runners than he had the previous year while allowing him to throw more innings, averaging just more than 6 innings a start. The other nice thing about that is that his IP/GS increased in the second half, going from 6 exactly to 6.14. It's not a significant increase, but it's an increase. Further, his K/9 and BB/9 both improved in the second half as well. On top of that, his velocity increased across the board last year except for 1 pitch - his changeup, which lost half a MPH. I don't think people are going to complain about that. Quintana seems to be rapidly evolving into a #2 type of pitcher. He has significant value on the market, but probably moreso to the White Sox. He wasn't going anywhere without 2-3 legitimate prospects being included.

 

Danks is coming off an injury-recovery season. He's owed something like $13 million per season over the next 3 years. Frankly, the idea of getting anything other than a team taking his contract off the Sox hands is ludicrous. He's also a nice bounce back candidate. He showed respectable velocity on the year (89.3), featured fantastic control, and exhibited a good ground ball rate. If his HR/9 regresses to the mean (16.8% HR/FB, up from 10.8% for his career), that immediately cuts runs from his ERA and adds outs. Further, if his stuff continues to recover, we could be talking about a high 3's ERA kind of guy with an increased strikeout rate. Considering you are going to get no value for him, keeping him is the right call with money in the budget.

 

Rienzo isn't going to get you any sort of value - he's not that valuable of a prospect - and Erik Johnson and Hector Santiago probably have similar ceilings, but Erik Johnson has the advantages of a. throwing from the right side and b. having 6 years prior to free agency as opposed to 4. It doesn't make sense to trade either.

 

That brings up Santiago. Santiago exhibits the ability to miss bats, as he throws multiple off speed pitches but shows off good velocity. That velocity is what throws hitters off. On that note, it's worth mentioning that his velocity this year decreased by one to one and a half MPH. If the Sox believe that to be a trend, that's reason enough to get rid of him. Beyond that, even when given the ability to start full time, in the minors, Santiago still did not pitch deep into games - he made 23 starts in the minors in 2011 and averaged [drumroll] 5 and a half innings per start. When starting in the majors, he has not been able to get to 6 innings. That is an incredibly vital number to get to because it cuts down on the usage of your relievers by an incredible amount - getting out of the 6th with ease means they aren't warming up or coming in during the 4th, 5th, or 6th innings when you get yourself in trouble. I'm sure this was something both Ventura and Cooper preached ad nauseum to him, and there were just no drastic changes made. Consider that he made 11 starts in the second half and threw 61.2 innings. His strikeout rate decreased in the second half from 9.38 to 6.71. His walk rate increased from 4.08 to 4.88. He started allowing more hits. His WHIP was 1.62, yet somehow, some way, he managed to put up a 3.94 ERA in that time frame. Tell me, do you want to sit here and tell me that a guy with a K rate under 7, a BB rate near 5, and a WHIP of 1.62 deserved to put up an ERA of 3.94, or do you believe he got lucky? I know my answer to that one.

 

If the Sox wanted to get value for a starting pitcher, all roads led to Santiago. I like the kid and think he's going to be a good middle of the rotation guy, but I think your talking about a guy who compares favorably to guys like Jorge De La Rosa, Jonathan Sanchez, and Oliver Perez - good stuff, suspect control, and if they can reign it in, they're good; if not, it will unravel.

 

Getting a guy with the type of contact, patience, and speed of Eaton for Santiago is great for the long-term prosperity of the White Sox.

 

Nice analysis.

[witesoxfan]

The problem is in the tweet, Law was thinking again. Avi will be just fine in RF this season for the Sox.

 

I have my concerns with Garcia too. I know he has power, but I want to see that power legitimately translated into games. Hitting 1 or 2 long home runs just doesn't do it for me. I think he's going to be a good hitter, but to be a really valuable piece for the Sox, he's going to have to start hitting the ball off and over walls and not just landing it in front of outfielders.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I know it's early, but has there been a Hahn trade in which it looks like we clearly won?

[JoshPR]

Why do we even read Keith law? Guy is a joke, none of his B.S makes sense and he does is try to glorify himself. Let it play out, like others said Avi has been fine, the only thing that can hurt Avi is Avi himself. And is for the trade I'm glad Hahn philosophy is getting guys who make contact, put the ball in play, not always swinging for the fences. He ain't done either, if not now by next trade deadline hardly any of the crap we had play out this past season will be here. I wouldn't doubt Viciedo's name being talked about..

[witesoxfan]

I know it's early, but has there been a Hahn trade in which it looks like we clearly won?

 

The Hector Santiago trade

[royoung]

I know it's early, but has there been a Hahn trade in which it looks like we clearly won?

 

Trades should be judged years down the road, not immediately after. I'm not concerned with "winning" trades, I just want a good ball club.

[Marty34]

It's not that I don't like the trade it's just that it's disappointing that Santiago didn't net them more. This rebuild is going to take some time if they only make incremental improvements in trading the few assets they have.

[BlackSox13]

I have my concerns with Garcia too. I know he has power, but I want to see that power legitimately translated into games. Hitting 1 or 2 long home runs just doesn't do it for me. I think he's going to be a good hitter, but to be a really valuable piece for the Sox, he's going to have to start hitting the ball off and over walls and not just landing it in front of outfielders.

We have to keep in mind he is just 22 so given time I think there's nothing to worry about. The power will translate.

[ShandyMan]

I know it's early, but has there been a Hahn trade in which it looks like we clearly won?

 

"win" is an extremely relative term.

 

 

we are winning in the sense that we are getting young-high potential players who we control for a long period of time, and saving money in the process.

[witesoxfan]

It's not that I don't like the trade it's just that it's disappointing that Santiago didn't net them more. This rebuild is going to take some time if they only make incremental improvements in trading the few assets they have.

 

I want to see what we get out of Eaton first. It could be incremental, but it could ultimately be a significant improvement too.

 

The idea that they are going after a 3B is nice to know. That is an area where a significant improvement should not be difficult to find.

[claydude14]

I like the trade. Thought the prospect throw-in was unneeded, but it sounds like it's not a big loss anyways. Hopefully we can get something decent for De Aza now.

[Reddy]

You guys are crazy. Adam Eaton is a HUGE talent and is easily worth Hector Santiago.

 

Pitching is our strength. Deal from strength to shore up weaknesses.

[RockRaines]

So people really think Santiago should have netted more than an mlb starting cfer and lead off man that is cost controlled for many years? Jeez.

[DirtySox]

So people really think Santiago should have netted more than an mlb starting cfer and lead off man that is cost controlled for many years? Jeez.

 

I think it's a suitable return. Some Soxtalk members severely overrate Hector.

[Dunt]

While I am happy we are expected to stay active, is anyone else worried they are downplaying the catcher position? I would rather go into the season with a potential long time starting catcher and Gillaspinger than what we have at catcher and an upgrade at 3B.

 

Im ok with seeing if either will pan out, catcher isnt really a position you see a ton of production from anyways. We need a drastic improvement at 3B though.

[RockRaines]

While I am happy we are expected to stay active, is anyone else worried they are downplaying the catcher position? I would rather go into the season with a potential long time starting catcher and Gillaspinger than what we have at catcher and an upgrade at 3B.

If we had defensive catchers i would be ok. But since there is a lot of doubt about Phegleys ability I am a bit nervous.

[Rowand44]

So people really think Santiago should have netted more than an mlb starting cfer and lead off man that is cost controlled for many years? Jeez.

Rock, we aren't sure that Eaton is a legit starting cf yet. For me it's high upside for high upside with Hector having proven a little bit more at the big league level and Eaton having a potential higher value to our team.

 

Like I said, I think it's pretty fair on paper, just have to wait and see how Eaton and Hector end up turning out.

[Wanne]

I like the trade. Thought the prospect throw-in was unneeded, but it sounds like it's not a big loss anyways. Hopefully we can get something decent for De Aza now.

 

yeah...so it was basically giving Thornton away. Oh well. Get on the phone with Pittsburgh......

[caulfield12]

yeah...so it was basically giving Thornton away. Oh well. Get on the phone with Pittsburgh......

 

 

http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/2013/0...5#axzz2n7w76XmL

 

Or not, with Marte, McCutcheon and Polanco, they project to one day in the not so distant future have the best young OF in all of baseball.

 

If they want to just give us Jose Tabata for DeAza, that's at least worth considering. DeAza's definitely not part of the long-term plan in Chicago.

Edited December 11, 2013 by caulfield12

[BigHurt3515]

http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/2013/0...5#axzz2n7w76XmL

 

Or not, with Marte, McCutcheon and Polanco, they project to one day in the not so distant future have the best young OF in all of baseball.

 

If they want to just give us Jose Tabata for DeAza, that's at least worth considering. DeAza's definitely not part of the long-term plan in Chicago.

 

They could still use Ramirez right?

[Jose Abreu]

Pittsburgh wants a solid backup infielder, we want a left handed reliever. Leury Garcia, see ya. Justin Wilson, welcome.

[Marty34]

I want to see what we get out of Eaton first. It could be incremental, but it could ultimately be a significant improvement too.

 

The idea that they are going after a 3B is nice to know. That is an area where a significant improvement should not be difficult to find.

 

Will it be fair to compare the return the Cubs get for Samardzija to the return the Sox got for Santiago?

[Jose Abreu]

Will it be fair to compare the return the Cubs get for Samardzija to the return the Sox got for Santiago?

The annoying thing about that is Samardzija is the most overrated player in baseball. I bet you some team like Arizona would be stupid enough to give them a near Sale-like haul.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

Another scouting report:

 

Eaton was drafted in the 19th round of the 2010 draft out of Miami-Ohio, which was somewhat shocking to him as he expected to go somewhere around the 4th or 5th round according to some. Eaton was so upset about dropping so far he briefly considered going back to college for his senior season. Thankfully for the Dbacks he changed his mind and signed rather quickly to get going on his professional career.While it has been challenging enough for Eaton to overcome the negative stereotypes of being just 5-8, he hasn't had the best of luck by missing out on showcase opportunities throughout his early career.

 

After a breakout junior season in high school in which he hit .486 and was named to numerous Ohio all-star lists, a bulging disk in his back limited him his senior season and he had to settle for an offer from Miami-Ohio instead of some of the bigger-name programs. He suffered a similar fate in college after an outstanding sophomore season at Miami. He was scheduled to play in the prestigious wood-bat Cape Cod league but he was the victim of a car accident that wiped out his entire summer season. A monster junior year at Miami still had plenty of buzz being generated about this scrappy little hitting machine from Ohio. The Dbacks invited Eaton to a pre-draft camp and he turned some heads within the organization. But the consensus inside headquarters was that they could wait on drafting him. Little did they know they could wait until the 19th round.

 

Early Minor League Career

The left-handed hitting Eaton came out of college hitting and he hasn't hit a single bump in the road since signing in June of 2010. Eaton was sent off to Missoula to begin his career and mutilated opposing pitchers to the tune of a ridiculous .385/.500/.585 Avg/OBP/SLG line with 14 doubles, 4 triples and 7 homers in 230 AB.

 

He skipped Low-A and was sent directly to Visalia his second season and didn't miss a beat by posting a .332/.455/.492 line in the first half of the season. The Dbacks felt the need to challenge Eaton further by moving him all the way to AA Mobile at the break and once again Eaton just kept hitting. In addition to his prodigious On Base totals Eaton also displayed plenty of speed by playing CF and swiping 54 bases his first two years. He also flashes some pop for a little guy with a strong, wrist-y swing that allows him to elevate some balls.

 

Eaton started the 2012 season in Mobile but after Chris Young went down and A.J. Pollock was called up to the big leagues Eaton was promoted to Reno to take over center field. It is no surprise what Eaton has done in the hitting-favored PCL. He's been flirting with .400 since arriving in Reno and it's a rare day Eaton doesn't have multiple hits. Pollock's return to Reno has relegated Eaton to LF but through Saturday he's hitting.397 and has swiped 15 bases. His home run totals are starting to abate but he's on a current pace that would produce 50+ doubles and around 50 SB with a mind-boggling .460 OBP.

 

It's official. Eaton will get his chance to play in the Major Leagues and it may be sooner than later. His production is probably what convinced the Dbacks they could afford to trade Colin Cowgill.

 

The Upside

Eaton projects as a top of the order guy who can get on base, doesn't strike out a lot, can steal a base and play some quality outfield with excellent range and a good arm. Those kinds of guys don't grow on trees. Some might equate him to Colin Cowgill and thus be a little leery about whether he can duplicate these feats at the highest level. While Eaton's Reno numbers are in some ways similar to Cowgill's, the big difference is that Eaton performed at a much higher level on the way up than Cowgill ever did. Cowgill likely has a hair more pop than Eaton and their defensive abilities are eerily similar, but Eaton has demonstrated on base skills equal or greater than some of the better top of the order guys in the game as they were coming up. He hasn't shown a single blip on the screen as he's progressed which suggests he can do it in the majors as well. While some may have been rightly concerned that Cowgill was a product of the PCL in regards to his advancement as a prospect, the same cannot be said of Eaton because he's done it every step of the way.

 

 

 

The one player on the Dbacks roster who Eaton should be compared to is Gerardo Parra as that's the first person for whom he would be a potential replacement. And if Minor League comparisons are what matters then there's no comparison. Parra's minor league career doesn't come close to Eaton's. Based on their comparative minor league production Eaton should be a much better player than Parra. The one difference may be that not many have the same cannon for an arm that Parra has.

 

Eaton has some similar characteristics to Parra. He's fiery like Parra. He's scrappy like Parra. He's a good teammate like Parra. While I'm aware that the vast majority of Snakepitters are Parra lovers, I'm not one of those. I don't dislike him. I just don't think he's anything special and is a bit of a knucklehead on the field at times. This is an area I think Eaton would surpass Parra.

 

One other interesting stat about Eaton? He can handle lefties. He's hitting .447 against them this year. I would have really liked to see what Eaton could have done with a full season at Mobile where the bulk of the future major league pitchers are prepping. His half-season numbers are good enough to suggest he can hit against anyone. But it is the one level where his stats were least human and not gaudy beyond belief.

 

The best-case scenario for Eaton is he projects as a leadoff or number 2 hitter who can post a solid .350 OBP with a handful of homers, 25-30 doubles and 20-30 SB while playing a serviceable CF or a really good left or right field. If he learns to add some additional power to his stroke and get into that 10-15 HR range and become an above average center fielder, he has fringe all-star potential.

 

The Downside

A guy like Eaton does have some downside risk. If he can't stick in CF then you're strictly buying his bat to play left or right field. And without a little more power production that's going to be more difficult to swallow. We've already seen what the club thinks about left fielders that don't have much power with Parra. After posting a career year and earning a Gold Glove the team went out and got a full-time replacement in Jason Kubel. While I think Eaton has a little more to offer than Parra that's still an unknown at this point. Plus the team already has a CF of the future in A.J. Pollock. So it doesn't seem likely that Eaton is the team's long-term plan to patrol center. That doesn't mean Eaton can't force his way into that spot but that's that much better he'll have to be.

 

Scouts do like his swing a lot and he does have some power elements to it. His current production in Reno (a power friendly league) is not providing much evidence that is going to happen. But he's certainly more than a slapper as he hits the ball with authority and is a line drive machine. If you're looking for major league comps you might be thinking Kenny Lofton or Juan Pierre. Eaton does have the speed to steal some bases but he's not quite in their league. Conversely he hits the ball with more authority than either of those and his minor league prowess vastly exceeds their production; and he has a better outfield arm than both.

 

Some might argue he's been the beneficiary of a couple of incredibly high BABIP years as both his Missoula season and his Reno season to date were well over .400. But that's what hitting lots of line drives will do for you. There's probably some who wish he had been converted to second base some years ago but that ship has clearly already sailed. He's an outfielder. Too bad. Those kinds of numbers coming up for a second baseman would have some drooling on themselves.

 

I don't have a lot of data regarding his CF skills other than a few scouting reports that say he's a good but not great center fielder. And a couple of others that even say it's very questionable that he can stay at CF. It's also telling that Pollock is the default choice between the two. But Eaton at least has the tools in terms of speed and his arm is probably above average for the position. He could possibly be coached up in that regard.

 

Another question about Eaton is whether his base-stealing skills will play at the highest level. He hasn't put up gaudy numbers on that front in the minors though they are still a significant plus. But once he comes up against pitchers and catchers dedicated to stopping the running game will he still be a factor?

 

All these things considered it seems at worst Eaton could be a very good 4th outfielder. He can play center field in a pinch (a la Parra), he can play all three positions, he can pinch run and pinch hit, and he can be used in double switches with anyone. He'd also be a better than replacement outfielder if one of the stars goes down.

 

Conclusion

Eaton has an awful lot going for him. All the evidence points to him being a good major league player with plenty of upside. One has to like his ceiling more than they would be concerned about his floor. He's a hard worker who plays with a lot of fire and energy and would be sure to become a fan favorite. Those kinds of players rub off on teams and become extremely valuable. If Eaton comes close to reaching his ceiling he'll be the team's leadoff hitter for years to come. If he plays closer to his floor, he'll become a clone of Gerardo Parra, which isn't the worst thing.

 

The Diamondbacks have to feel fortunate to have Eaton. If not for his bad luck early on missing out on some showcase opportunities Eaton might be a very highly rated prospect just waiting for the call. He's had to earn everything he's gotten which has probably made him a better baseball player who is on the cusp of becoming an impact player for the Diamondbacks.

 

The bigger question is how does he fit in with the current team? Do they trade Young? Do they let him languish in Reno for another year while Upton, Young and Kubel man the outfield? Do they trade Parra so Eaton can at least be the 4th outfielder? Or do they trade Eaton because there's no room at the inn?

 

The problem is that Eaton is ready now. On many another team Eaton would already be in the show. He's just waiting for his chance. With both Pollock and Eaton nearly ready, finding outfielders for the near future is not one of the team's bigger problems.

 

I haven't been as up to date about who's who this offseason (some of the names I've seen as subjects of topics here lately are entirely foreign to me), so I thank you for this. I kept picturing Mark Eaton for some reason. Would have liked to see Santiago stick around, but anyone keeping up with the Sox could conclude that he'd probably get a better shot elsewhere.