Floyd Signs W/Braves (1yr deal)

[flavum]

1 yr/ 4 mil

 

Can earn 4.5 mil more from incentives.

Edited December 16, 2013 by flavum

[witesoxfan]

I have yet to believe in that theory 100%. Aces bring a lot of team confidence when they are out on the mound. Then again last year's team destroys that theory with Sale.

 

Pitcher A - 16-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 167.2 IP, 30 GS

Pitcher B - 12-10, 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 31 GS

 

Tell me, who are you going to sign? If you truly believe that W-L means anything, you are going to pick pitcher A, which means you are going to take Jorge De La Rosa over Felix Hernandez. You'd have a tough time justifying that to the fan base.

 

W-L is meaningless for a pitcher.

[southsider2k5]

1 yr/ 4 mil

 

Can earn 4.5 mil more from incentives.

 

Yeah, that is a great deal for Gavin if it doesn't involve a second year or team option.

[Eminor3rd]

Pitcher A - 16-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 167.2 IP, 30 GS

Pitcher B - 12-10, 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 31 GS

 

Tell me, who are you going to sign? If you truly believe that W-L means anything, you are going to pick pitcher A, which means you are going to take Jorge De La Rosa over Felix Hernandez. You'd have a tough time justifying that to the fan base.

 

W-L is meaningless for a pitcher.

 

Snap!

[LittleHurt05]

1 yr/ 4 mil

 

Can earn 4.5 mil more from incentives.

 

Coming off of Tommy John? Good work if you can get it.

[Soxfest]

Give away Gavin has moved to the NL..........goodbye.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Soxfest

[BlackSox13]

Give away Gavin has moved to the NL..........goodbye.

Amen to that! Our ability to throw runners out just went up and the length of the games went down. When healhy he'd probably be pretty decent in the NL.

[Balta1701]

Coming off of Tommy John? Good work if you can get it.

Yeah, that's a lot more than I'd have paid for him.

[chetkincaid]

He probably won't be able to make effective starts until after the all star break.

 

I'll pass.

[Balta1701]

He probably won't be able to make effective starts until after the all star break.

 

I'll pass.

He seems to be ahead of that schedule somewhat, but if he's only on a 1 year deal he does not fit the White Sox's needs. The White Sox could, before they signed the guy from the Royals, have used a right-handed 6th starter under team control for a couple years to step in if one of the young guys struggles in the spring or gets hurt.

 

It doesn't make sense to sign a guy on a 1 year deal because if he starts having success, you have little to no value in trading him midseason because he's a "cheap back of the rotation guy at the deadline" and there's very little value in that in a trade.

 

A team that has 5 guys in their rotation but some young guys and some guys with injury concerns who also won their division last year is a much better fit for a guy who wants to pitch in a 1 year deal and try to get healthy/rebuild value. They match in all the categories they'd like, we dont'.

[Texsox]

Pitcher A - 16-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 167.2 IP, 30 GS

Pitcher B - 12-10, 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 31 GS

 

Tell me, who are you going to sign? If you truly believe that W-L means anything, you are going to pick pitcher A, which means you are going to take Jorge De La Rosa over Felix Hernandez. You'd have a tough time justifying that to the fan base.

 

W-L is meaningless for a pitcher.

 

Cherry picking two players to prove a point isn't necessarily valid.

 

There are a lot of stats to look at with a player. Each situation is different and to make the right judegment you have to evaluate each player individualy. And why would the fan base prefer Hernandez? Because of his 204.1 IP? What stat would make them prefer him? Or is it watching him pitch and understanding the complete package?

[Jerksticks]

Pitcher A - 16-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 167.2 IP, 30 GS

Pitcher B - 12-10, 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 31 GS

 

Tell me, who are you going to sign? If you truly believe that W-L means anything, you are going to pick pitcher A, which means you are going to take Jorge De La Rosa over Felix Hernandez. You'd have a tough time justifying that to the fan base.

 

W-L is meaningless for a pitcher.

Of course you're right here. But I don't think it dismisses Kitekrazy's point entirely. No matter what we will never be able to quantify certain intangibles like "gettin it done".

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Cherry picking two players to prove a point isn't necessarily valid.

 

There are a lot of stats to look at with a player. Each situation is different and to make the right judegment you have to evaluate each player individualy. And why would the fan base prefer Hernandez? Because of his 204.1 IP? What stat would make them prefer him? Or is it watching him pitch and understanding the complete package?

 

They would prefer Hernandez because he's a better pitcher. He allows fewer runs, fewer base runners, eats more innings, and gives your team a better chance to win. Insert Chris Sale instead for Felix, the point remains. Just because they did not win does not mean that the pitcher did not do more than others to give his team a chance to win. If the team is bad, then their W-L is going to be severely affected.

 

Do you really think the Sox players saw Chris Sale go out to the mound this year and think "OK, we can tank it today, Sale is on the mound" ? Is he a bad pitcher because he went 11-14? Sure, there may be some intangible benefit to the team having a stud starter on the mound, but I like to think these guys are professionals and they are going to go out and do their best day in and day out, regardless of who is pitching on the mound.

[Balta1701]

They would prefer Hernandez because he's a better pitcher. He allows fewer runs, fewer base runners, eats more innings, and gives your team a better chance to win. Insert Chris Sale instead for Felix, the point remains. Just because they did not win does not mean that the pitcher did not do more than others to give his team a chance to win. If the team is bad, then their W-L is going to be severely affected.

 

Do you really think the Sox players saw Chris Sale go out to the mound this year and think "OK, we can tank it today, Sale is on the mound" ? Is he a bad pitcher because he went 11-14? Sure, there may be some intangible benefit to the team having a stud starter on the mound, but I like to think these guys are professionals and they are going to go out and do their best day in and day out, regardless of who is pitching on the mound.

A serious lack of TWTW.

[Soxfest]

Before signing with the Braves for $4MM with an additional $4.5MM in incentives, starter Gavin Floyd reportedly turned down a two-year offer from the Orioles that could have reached $20MM in value with incentives, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. In an interesting reversal of the usual bargaining positions of player and team, Connolly writes that Baltimore was not interested in giving a one-year deal to Floyd (who is still working back from Tommy John surgery) because it sought to secure another season at a reasonable price. Meanwhile, the previously-durable righty chose the shorter-term deal, presumably hoping to prove his health and command multiple years when he enters next season's free agent market at age 31.

 

Per MLBRUMORS

Edited December 17, 2013 by Soxfest

[Balta1701]

Before signing with the Braves for $4MM with an additional $4.5MM in incentives, starter Gavin Floyd reportedly turned down a two-year offer from the Orioles that could have reached $20MM in value with incentives, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. In an interesting reversal of the usual bargaining positions of player and team, Connolly writes that Baltimore was not interested in giving a one-year deal to Floyd (who is still working back from Tommy John surgery) because it sought to secure another season at a reasonable price. Meanwhile, the previously-durable righty chose the shorter-term deal, presumably hoping to prove his health and command multiple years when he enters next season's free agent market at age 31.

 

Per MLBRUMORS

Yeah, so he thinks he's healthy, his agent thinks he's healthy, he's going to pitch early in the season, he thinks he'll pitch well enough to score a multiyear deal after one year, and he wasn't going to sign a cheap deal giving the team 2 years of control. Just not a match for us at all.

[caulfield12]

$20 million for Gavin Floyd when he might only pitch a season a half and wasn't exactly an All-Star the last 2-3 seasons isn't exactly a huge bargain for the Orioles.

 

It is interesting because that's his hometown region and everyone assumed he would end up in BALT eventually, but he preferred the NL and the Braves' track record with pitchers.

 

Maybe the only way to reach those incentives was pitching 200 or at least 150+ or 175+ innings in 2014 and 2015.

Edited December 17, 2013 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

$20 million for Gavin Floyd when he might only pitch a season a half and wasn't exactly an All-Star the last 2-3 seasons isn't exactly a huge bargain for the Orioles.

 

It is interesting because that's his hometown region and everyone assumed he would end up in BALT eventually, but he preferred the NL and the Braves' track record with pitchers.

 

Maybe the only way to reach those incentives was pitching 200 or at least 150+ or 175+ innings in 2014 and 2015.

I would agree. The incentives were obviously not easily attainable or Gavin Floyd turning down a chance to make $20 million the next 2 years coming off his surgery is crazy. But the thing is, if he doesn't show he can reach those types of numbers, who is going to pay him more than what the Orioles numbers with the incentives? It must have been a very low guarantee both seasons.

[witesoxfan]

Without knowing the incentives themselves, it's impossible to know how good or bad the deal with Baltimore was. It could have been 2 years, $9 million deal, $3.5 mill in the first year, $5.5 mill in the second with incentives of about $1 mill for 180 innings, 190 innings, 200 innings, 210 innings, and 220 innings and perhaps Baltimore also got an opt out clause too.

 

The only thing we can safely assume, from an economic perspective, is that the player took what they believed to be the best deal for them.

[Balta1701]

Without knowing the incentives themselves, it's impossible to know how good or bad the deal with Baltimore was. It could have been 2 years, $9 million deal, $3.5 mill in the first year, $5.5 mill in the second with incentives of about $1 mill for 180 innings, 190 innings, 200 innings, 210 innings, and 220 innings and perhaps Baltimore also got an opt out clause too.

 

The only thing we can safely assume, from an economic perspective, is that the player took what they believed to be the best deal for them.

Gavin has also regularly been a 3-4 WAR pitcher when healthy. If he thinks he's healthy and can throw a season out at that level, then it's entirely plausible he could come out of next season looking for a 3/$45 deal and get it.

[Texsox]

They would prefer Hernandez because he's a better pitcher. He allows fewer runs, fewer base runners, eats more innings, and gives your team a better chance to win. Insert Chris Sale instead for Felix, the point remains. Just because they did not win does not mean that the pitcher did not do more than others to give his team a chance to win. If the team is bad, then their W-L is going to be severely affected.

 

Do you really think the Sox players saw Chris Sale go out to the mound this year and think "OK, we can tank it today, Sale is on the mound" ? Is he a bad pitcher because he went 11-14? Sure, there may be some intangible benefit to the team having a stud starter on the mound, but I like to think these guys are professionals and they are going to go out and do their best day in and day out, regardless of who is pitching on the mound.

 

See, you grouped several stats, you didn't just look at one. No stat should be isolated. Which was my point.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

See, you grouped several stats, you didn't just look at one. No stat should be isolated. Which was my point.

 

I've never said to look at one, I've just said to essentially ignore W-L.

[Texsox]

And to prove your case you looked at ERA, WHIP, IP, and GS and used it aganist W-L. I said that was not a good way to look at it.

 

Which is better looking at:

ERA or W-L, WHIP, IP, and GS?

WHIP or W-L, ERA, IP, and GS?

IP or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and GS?

GS or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and IP?

 

There isn't any single stat that really stands on it's own. So rejecting W-L because the other four stats are more reliable is cherry picking. If we want to rank the five stats in order I would be hard pressed to place W-L last.

 

Maybe ERA/WHIP then W-L then IP and GS. I wouldn't place IP or GS above W-L.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

And to prove your case you looked at ERA, WHIP, IP, and GS and used it aganist W-L. I said that was not a good way to look at it.

 

Which is better looking at:

ERA or W-L, WHIP, IP, and GS?

WHIP or W-L, ERA, IP, and GS?

IP or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and GS?

GS or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and IP?

 

There isn't any single stat that really stands on it's own. So rejecting W-L because the other four stats are more reliable is cherry picking. If we want to rank the five stats in order I would be hard pressed to place W-L last.

 

Maybe ERA/WHIP then W-L then IP and GS. I wouldn't place IP or GS above W-L.

 

Then we will agree to disagree.

 

I just find absolutely no meaning in W-L.

 

-ERA tells me how many earned runs a pitcher gives up on average

-WHIP tells me how many base runners a pitcher allows on average

-IP tells me, generally, how durable and/or efficient a pitcher is (though it tells a lot, though not all is incredibly telling of talent)

-GS also tells me about durability; thus, IP/GS is important to me as well

-FIP tells me approximate talent level of the pitcher this year

-xFIP tells me what he should probably be putting up, given his peripherals

-K/9 tells me a little about his stuff and how efficient he is about getting outs (which improves consistency)

-BB/9 tells me how good a guys control is and whether it will ever typically get him in trouble

-HR/9 tells me how many homers a guy gives up

-HR/FB tells me how unlucky the pitcher has been about giving up home runs (typically 10% in all circumstances)

-GO/AO tells me how good a guy is about producing ground balls which, while more likely to become hits, are very unlikely to be anything more than singles

 

I could go on. On the other hand, W-L tells me how good the pitcher's team was, or how the team performed when he was on the mound. A pitcher has very, very little control over that. He can pitch to his defense and in NL parks, he can help try and score runs when up at the plate. Otherwise, all he can do is pitch as well as he can and then hope the team wins the game.

 

Theoretically, Chris Sale gives up a lead off homer every game he pitches, but then retires the next 27 by striking them all out. His opposing pitcher loads the bases every inning but gets double plays and keeps the team off the board. At the end of the year, Chris Sale is 0-32 while opposing pitchers are 32-0. Did Chris Sale really deserve to lose 32 games, or should he be upset at his team for allowing him to lose 32 games?

[SoxAce]

Then we will agree to disagree.

 

I just find absolutely no meaning in W-L.

 

-ERA tells me how many earned runs a pitcher gives up on average

-WHIP tells me how many base runners a pitcher allows on average

-IP tells me, generally, how durable and/or efficient a pitcher is (though it tells a lot, though not all is incredibly telling of talent)

-GS also tells me about durability; thus, IP/GS is important to me as well

-FIP tells me approximate talent level of the pitcher this year

-xFIP tells me what he should probably be putting up, given his peripherals

-K/9 tells me a little about his stuff and how efficient he is about getting outs (which improves consistency)

-BB/9 tells me how good a guys control is and whether it will ever typically get him in trouble

-HR/9 tells me how many homers a guy gives up

-HR/FB tells me how unlucky the pitcher has been about giving up home runs (typically 10% in all circumstances)

-GO/AO tells me how good a guy is about producing ground balls which, while more likely to become hits, are very unlikely to be anything more than singles

 

I could go on. On the other hand, W-L tells me how good the pitcher's team was, or how the team performed when he was on the mound. A pitcher has very, very little control over that. He can pitch to his defense and in NL parks, he can help try and score runs when up at the plate. Otherwise, all he can do is pitch as well as he can and then hope the team wins the game.

 

Theoretically, Chris Sale gives up a lead off homer every game he pitches, but then retires the next 27 by striking them all out. His opposing pitcher loads the bases every inning but gets double plays and keeps the team off the board. At the end of the year, Chris Sale is 0-32 while opposing pitchers are 32-0. Did Chris Sale really deserve to lose 32 games, or should he be upset at his team for allowing him to lose 32 games?

 

Ah... now this is the Blake I know and love. Fantastic post.