Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[Dick Allen]

The contract extension added one more guaranteed year, so yes he was.

No. He was year to year before that. If he blew out his arm in September, the Sox could have walked away. It bought out arb years, but there is no obligation to offer him a contract. Do the Sox owe Dylan Axelrod money for the next several years?

Edited December 26, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Rowand44]

No. He was year to year before that. If he blew out his arm in September, the Sox could have walked away. It bought out arb years, but there is no obligation to offer him a contract. Do the Sox owe Dylan Axelrod money for the next several years?

Man, you really like to argue just to argue. Fine, they bought out his arb years plus 1, so they locked themselves into 4 years for a whole 32 million, not 7 years for 120.

 

The situations aren't even comparable, you're just trying to make a point for some reason.

[Balta1701]

Man, you really like to argue just to argue. Fine, they bought out his arb years plus 1, so they locked themselves into 4 years for a whole 32 million, not 7 years for 120.

 

The situations aren't even comparable, you're just trying to make a point for some reason.

If Sale's deal actually had been like 7/$70, rather than the last/expensive years being options, I could definitely see the team hesitating or not signing that deal.

[BlackSox13]

But simultaneously, the idea of him winding up similar to Matsuzaka in performance and injuries while getting $50 million more is terrifying.

Oh, I couldn't agree more. This is why I'm straddling the fence with aching nuts.

 

I see both sides to this, Im just not sure how much of a risk (financially) I'd be willing to take. If Tanaka is going to get the years and money speculated I'd have to say no thank you and move on.

[Rowand44]

If Sale's deal actually had been like 7/$70, rather than the last/expensive years being options, I could definitely see the team hesitating or not signing that deal.

Ya that changes things big time, no doubt.

[The Ultimate Champion]

MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that teams see Tanaka not as a seven-year deal but rather as an investment to make an immediate impact that could yield a spot in the 2014 playoff picture. The Yankees would like to make an offer to close the bidding process before it truly begins, writes Justice, but several other teams likely feel the same.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while Tanaka's new agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras' public reputation of bargaining hard, he does have that reputation within the industry. Close is no stranger to large deals, as he represents Derek Jeter, Zack Greinke and Mark Teixeira, among others.

Sherman also runs down a list of eight teams that he feels to be the Yankees' most serious competition for Tanaka: the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Mariners.

In a piece for FOX Sports, Gabe Kapler writes that he spoke to one Major League GM who thought Tanaka would sign for something in the six-year, $105MM neighborhood (not including the posting fee). Kapler feels that Tanaka's age and the potential bidding war will up the price to something in the range of seven years and $125MM (plus the $20MM posting fee). He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post can't imagine Tanaka signing for anything less than $100MM (Sulia link).

 

^From MLBTR

[The Ultimate Champion]

Yanks want to end it before it even begins via a huge bid. Keep in mind that Theo won't be outbid apparently.

 

125M-145M over 6-7 years = $17.8M - $24.6M per year

 

Is this Greinke again?

 

No?

 

Good, let's see how high Theo will go. Then we can play the Cubs & Quintana can out-pitch him. Ha.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Per Cots, these are the guys in baseball history who have earned $18M or more per season as an average annual value:

 

Roger Clemens

Justin Verlander

Felix Hernandez

Zack Greinke

CC Sabathia

Cliff Lee

Cole Hamels

Johan Santana

Matt Cain

Tim Lincecum

Roy Halladay

Adam Wainwright

Carlos Zambrano

Barry Zito

 

Again, from MLBTR in an article from Gabe Kapler: "He also cautions that Tanaka is far from a sure thing and will need to display impeccable command of his fastball or add some movement to it in order to flourish in the Majors."

[The Ultimate Champion]

no one knows is true. But the best comparison is someone that was in the exact same scenario. He played on the same team as Iwakuma.

 

2007-2011

Iwakuma (age 26 to 30) 780 IP, 725 Hits, 157BB, 607K's, 2.67 ERA 3.86 K/BB ratio, 1.13 WHIP

 

2007 - 2013

Tanaka (age 18 to 24) 1315 IP, 1182 Hits, 275BB, 1238K's, 2.30 ERA 4.50 K/BB ratio, 1.10 WHIP

 

Same park, same team behind them (except for 2012 and 2013). Worst case scenario is that Tanaka compares better than a top 20 pitcher. Give him an adjustment year and depending on health he'll be a top 25 guy.

Clearly you don't know the meaning of "worst case scenario." Think about that term for a second.

Edited December 26, 2013 by The Ultimate Champion

[Marty34]

Even if he went belly up, given the Sox future payroll obligations, I just can't see how Tanaka at even $25M per would be that much worse than the Danks contract.

[BlackSox13]

Even if he went belly up, given the Sox future payroll obligations, I just can't see how Tanaka at even $25M per would be that much worse than the Danks contract.

But Danks contract is for five years while its speculated Tanaka could get 6-7 years. Also the extra 10m saved could easily buy this team a good catcher in the near future. 25m per year is a huge risk for guy that's never pitched in the majors.

[Dick Allen]

Man, you really like to argue just to argue. Fine, they bought out his arb years plus 1, so they locked themselves into 4 years for a whole 32 million, not 7 years for 120.

 

The situations aren't even comparable, you're just trying to make a point for some reason.

You argued with my post which was correct. So any arguing to argue was brought on by you.

[Andy the Clown]

Man, you really like to argue just to argue. Fine, they bought out his arb years plus 1, so they locked themselves into 4 years for a whole 32 million, not 7 years for 120.

 

The situations aren't even comparable, you're just trying to make a point for some reason.

 

That's his shtick. That and the Yoko Ono avatar.

[hammerhead johnson]

That and the Yoko Ono avatar.

 

Man, she is so ugly.

[BlackSox13]

That's his shtick. That and the Yoko Ono avatar.

 

Sorry DA but that s*** is funny. Andy, why you gotta be such a clown?

[southsider2k5]

Sale has a 6-7 year deal.

 

His guaranteed contract will cost about what one year of Tanaka will cost.

[southsider2k5]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 1h

 

Over the last 24,300 MLB starts, pitchers have gone 130+ pitches 23 times. Over his last 123, Masahiro Tanaka has 15: http://yhoo.it/1ePRRIB

[Dick Allen]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 1h

 

Over the last 24,300 MLB starts, pitchers have gone 130+ pitches 23 times. Over his last 123, Masahiro Tanaka has 15: http://yhoo.it/1ePRRIB

In 1989 as a 42 year old, Nolan Ryan went over 130 16 times. He was over 125 another 3.

 

Don't they pitch once a week in Japan, like college ball?

Edited December 30, 2013 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

In all fairness, Tanaka spent most of those pitches inside domes at ideal conditions and pitching to a bunch of guys that could never make it out of AA ball in the states. All pitch counts are not equal & the stress level in Japan is vastly below what he'd have to endure in MLB.

 

As far as I know, pitching alone is stressful on the arm. The fact that he throws a splitter should be more concerning than pitch count assuming he pitches appropriately & works off his fastball. My concerns with Tanaka would be the money, the years, and the fact that he's unproven. The insurance factor probably means that a team would be better off having someone like Tanaka hurt & on the DL for the season than making 35 starts with an ERA over 5 while earning a top-3 salary on the team.

[pettie4sox]

In all fairness, Tanaka spent most of those pitches inside domes at ideal conditions and pitching to a bunch of guys that could never make it out of AA ball in the states. All pitch counts are not equal & the stress level in Japan is vastly below what he'd have to endure in MLB.

 

As far as I know, pitching alone is stressful on the arm. The fact that he throws a splitter should be more concerning than pitch count assuming he pitches appropriately & works off his fastball. My concerns with Tanaka would be the money, the years, and the fact that he's unproven. The insurance factor probably means that a team would be better off having someone like Tanaka hurt & on the DL for the season than making 35 starts with an ERA over 5 while earning a top-3 salary on the team.

 

Japanese players are pretty good man. I don't know why you are trying to belittle the man's stats. Don't get me wrong, he won't put up those type of stats in the MLB but to say that Japanese players are AA players? That's just disingenuous.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Japanese players are pretty good man. I don't know why you are trying to belittle the man's stats. Don't get me wrong, he won't put up those type of stats in the MLB but to say that Japanese players are AA players? That's just disingenuous.

Yeah that's what I'm saying. The league is terrible. Our failed prospects here are better IMO.

[witesoxfan]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. The league is terrible. Our failed prospects here are better IMO.

 

The NPB is typically compared to AAAA. Better than AAA, not as good as MLB. You can feel how you want, but I don't think you will find many people that agree with you.

[BlackSox13]

In all fairness, Tanaka spent most of those pitches inside domes at ideal conditions and pitching to a bunch of guys that could never make it out of AA ball in the states. All pitch counts are not equal & the stress level in Japan is vastly below what he'd have to endure in MLB.

 

As far as I know, pitching alone is stressful on the arm. The fact that he throws a splitter should be more concerning than pitch count assuming he pitches appropriately & works off his fastball. My concerns with Tanaka would be the money, the years, and the fact that he's unproven. The insurance factor probably means that a team would be better off having someone like Tanaka hurt & on the DL for the season than making 35 starts with an ERA over 5 while earning a top-3 salary on the team.

All good points TUC. Found a very interesting article at Baseball Prospectus talking about the split finger and forkball pitches, both of which Tanaka is said to throw. The article backs up your (TUC) concerns over Tanaka's use of these pitches. For those interested...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=12558

 

 

[Jake]

Japanese pitchers tend to pitch every 7th day FWIW. Whether pitching every fifth day and throwing 105 pitches/start and every seventh day with 115/start are equivalent, it would be difficult to say. I'd say with relative certainty that it is better that they get longer rest when they throw more pitches, but I cannot say how much better it is.

[pettie4sox]

The NPB is typically compared to AAAA. Better than AAA, not as good as MLB. You can feel how you want, but I don't think you will find many people that agree with you.

 

Yeah, this guy has no clue. The Japanese typically finish really high in baseball tournaments for a reason. WBC champs x2 and were 3rd or 4th the previous one. I have been to games in Japan. The atmosphere is intense. Those players are solid. They may not hit as many homeruns but they are fundamentally solid.

Edited December 30, 2013 by pettie4sox