Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[max power]

The MLB teams don't pay that kind of money out very often for its own players (about $110 million including posting fee).

Edited December 31, 2013 by MAX

[The Ultimate Champion]

^This is true.

 

However Matsui, Fukudome, a bunch of these guys got good money, good enough to get some people thinking about moving a good distance from home, especially when you factor in the traditional team perks like personal translator & assistance, help getting organized as far as place of residence and so forth. There is a trend here where teams just keep spending more and more on unproven players so long as the spending isn't capped. I believe there would be a lot of this happening in Japan if MLB scouts liked the players over there enough.

 

That Concepcion guy got $7M something from the Cubs for basically sounding like Quintana who we signed as a MiLB FA that same offseason, and most of us were pretty interested in Noel Arguelles who got good $$$ from the Royals but became a bust. If MLB execs viewed NPB baseball as Triple-A level with MLB quality players I think we can fairly assume they would throw a ton more money over there than they do given how they spend in other areas of international free agency.

[The Ultimate Champion]

There is the possibility - I'll throw it out there to be fair - that the Japanese market is underdeveloped. I have a hard time believing it, especially since it still seems like their main export is tricky relief pitchers, but it's a possibility. And if that happens to be the case then it will be overdeveloped pretty quickly with the new posting system & players not costing draft picks or INTL signing pool slots.

[BlackSox13]

In all honesty there should be a cap as to how much foreign players can sign for. I admit there have been guys that prosper in the MLB but plenty end up busts too. If the Japanese, DR, Cuban, Venezuelan leagues and etc are considered to be the some equivelant of the MiLB then why are foreign players able to be signed for multi year/ multi million dollar contracts without ever playing in the MLB ? Minor leaguers have to 1) prove their worth in the MiLB to get the callup and 2) take league minimum pay for their first three seasons before they hit arbitration when they are finally able to earn millions AFTER they have proven themselves in the MLB at league minimum. Talk about s***ting on your home grown talent. I'm surprised the players association hasn't had something to say on this, well, I haven't come across anything anyway.

[southsider2k5]

I think there are a couple of good statements to the quality of Japan's baseball. Matt Murton is their all-time single season hit record holder. Wladimir Balentin is their HR single season leader, with a top 10 that includes Tuffy Rhodes and Alex Cabrera. Even someone like Ichiro who put up huge numbers here, saw his OPS drop by 100 to 150 points in the US. He went from .999 his last year in Japan to .838 in Seattle. It fell even lower than that the next two years after never being under .900 in Japan. Hidecki Matsui went from 1.153 his last year in Japan to .788 OPS his first year in the US. His second year he rebounded, but only to .912, after having never been under .984 in his last 7 years in Japan.

 

I can't think of a single pitcher from Japan who has been better in the US vs Japan. The ones I can think of are significantly worse.

[caulfield12]

It seems like it is very difficult to find historical stats on Japanese baseball period, other than the fact that hitters like Casey McGehee can look like Miguel Cabrera over there. Our own Shingo didn't exactly look like Mariano or Trevor Hoffman or Lee Smith or Dennis Eckersly did he?

 

Your argument is what? That the league is AAA or something? Where's your stats statman. Go find some reference and I'll look at it. Your comparison to the WBC is completely irrelevant to the overall quality of the league.

 

 

There are limits to the amount of foreign born players on a team (just like the Chinese Basketball Association will only allow 2 or 3 foreigners per roster). There always will be. So the scenario you described will never happen.

 

You have to look at it from the other side of things. There are a lot of Japanese baseball players who are comfortable enough over there who don't want to play in the US. Maybe they don't like the food or culture or they can't speak English, or don't want to relocate their families.

 

Maybe they've watched from afar what happened with Hideki Irabu and how the pressure tore his playing career, family and eventually even life apart, ending up in a tragic suicide far from home.

 

Another factor is the Japanese players do 10X the amount of training and drills and practicing. They think American athletes are coddled/spoiled and only care about their own statistics. They have comfortable lifestyles in Japan, where many of the players are considered heroes...in the same way a role player like Joe McEwing or Jose Oquendo became a cult-like figure in St. Louis, for example.

 

The lack of fundamentals (see 2013 White Sox) is the antithesis of the Japanese and Korean approach to baseball. In my opinion, every team in MLB would be better off if they had one or two role models like Tadahito Iguchi to show the smaller guys like Beckham or Alexei they don't have to hit 15-20 homers to be effective players.

[caulfield12]

In all honesty there should be a cap as to how much foreign players can sign for. I admit there have been guys that prosper in the MLB but plenty end up busts too. If the Japanese, DR, Cuban, Venezuelan leagues and etc are considered to be the some equivelant of the MiLB then why are foreign players able to be signed for multi year/ multi million dollar contracts without ever playing in the MLB ? Minor leaguers have to 1) prove their worth in the MiLB to get the callup and 2) take league minimum pay for their first three seasons before they hit arbitration when they are finally able to earn millions AFTER they have proven themselves in the MLB at league minimum. Talk about s***ting on your home grown talent. I'm surprised the players association hasn't had something to say on this, well, I haven't come across anything anyway.

 

Because those American-born high school players have a 1/100000 chance of being ready for the big leagues at 18.

 

We can throw out a few examples like Griffey, Jr., or Bryce Harper, but the NBA frequently has 5-10 eighteen and nineteen year olds come into the league every year and play right away.

 

And they still have the opportunity to get signed to huge bonuses in the draft.

[BlackSox13]

Because those American-born high school players have a 1/100000 chance of being ready for the big leagues at 18.

 

We can throw out a few examples like Griffey, Jr., or Bryce Harper, but the NBA frequently has 5-10 eighteen and nineteen year olds come into the league every year and play right away.

 

And they still have the opportunity to get signed to huge bonuses in the draft.

I'm referring to MiLB players, players coming out of high school is a very different scenario all together but even then they still have to prove they are worthy of an MLB promotion and their signing bonuses pale in comparison to the contracts that are handed out to foreign players with no MLB experience. Is it fair a guy like Tanaka is likely to come to the MLB with NO MLB experience at all and get a guaranteed contract that will easily double Chris Sale's? How about Fernandez from the Marlins who had to prove his worth for a call up and still makes the league minimum? There's lots of names I can throw out there but I think you get what I mean.

[Eminor3rd]

See, they have their opinions, that's fine, but what you just posted is equally as baseless. I could just as easily turn around and exclaim shock at the notion of your general/average NPB players being at the same level as your American & Latin players in the high minors in the MLB system, much less actually superior. In fact, I am going to.

 

What evidence do you have that the Japanese players in NPB came up facing an equal or greater level of comp as those in our AAA system currently? Players here have had to mostly work straight from Rookie or Low-A ball up through multiple levels before eventually topping at as ST invitees or 23-25th type roster players. Think seriously for a second about all the players in MiLB baseball, from the all the Summer League teams and organizational camps to 2 levels of Rookie ball to 3 levels of A ball to AA to AAA, and consider just how many of these players there are. Then consider the pool they come from. These players have come from all over the world, some are very serious athletes as well, and some of these guys have been given substantial signing bonuses which I am sure would rank well in comparison to some of the salaries in Japan alone. Consider how many if not most of the players here have been scouted by multiple organizations intensely, each organization of course being worth on average what, a few hundred million dollars? This is big business over here. There's a lot a players picked from a lot of places, there's a lot of money in the scouting, the signing, the development, the the training, etc. of these guys. And for someone to just run out there and say that the NPB guys are the same level or better than the AAA/fringe MLB players he had better have some real proof. To me, making a statement like that shows a total lack of appreciation for what players who have made it that far in MLB's system have actually accomplished.

 

For anyone to make such a statement and be accurate they'd need some real data that *does not* involve NPB stats which of course prove little to nothing. I want to know what the average FB velocity is over there, I want to know what the average breaking balls look like, the bat speed, the time out of the box to first, the type of thing a scout would look for. Otherwise the claim that NPB is as good or better is just as baseless. Some "expert" number crunchers know what, exactly? Amateur free agents don't get signed by numbers, they get signed by ability, and you look to the numbers for support. If you want to come up with a way that actually measures the talent level somewhat objectively then sure you can go ahead & say they're as good as our AAA guys if that ends up being the case. But I would bet on the contrary, that if you wanted to create a league in NPB that would be comparable to the AAA level you'd probably have to contract several teams over there and squeeze the rosters quite a bit.

 

And lastly I don't buy for a second that more players don't come over here just because they want to stay in Japan. I'd say it's because MLB teams won't pay them enough and guarantee them enough to make it worth their while to leave their family behind and/or take their kids out of school and move halfway across the globe. But there's a price for everything. Darvish was talked about for a good year or two before he was posted, and supposedly he didn't want to come over here. That kind of money changes things, and there would be more of it handed out if MLB teams figured it was worth it.

 

Alright.

 

I just asked Dan Szymborski about this, who is the inventor of the ZiPS projection system and works for ESPN (I play TF2 with him on Steam). I'm going to post the conversation verbatim:

 

Eminor3rd: Have you done your own equivalencies for NPB stats?

[AiF] Zim: Yup

[AiF] Zim: Couldn't project if I didn't!

Eminor3rd: And how do they compare to MiLB? I've heard roughly AAA, is that true?

Eminor3rd: or do you just have linear weights for every type of event

[AiF] Zim: Like AAA+.5

[AiF] Zim: BA type stuff almost no hit, HRs bigger hit than moving from AAA

 

There you have it. Not opinion, but statistical research on equivalencies that show NPB numbers to be roughly AAA level and then some. And this is coming from one of the biggest names in this tiny field, so much so that ESPN uses his numbers.

[Jordan4life_2007]

You know, I don't post on PHT anywhere near as much as I used to. I'm strictly NBA thread and that's it these days. But I do lurk. And I will say this much, I want to have emotional, internet sex with Eminor3rd. This dude believes in the numbers and he backs it up. He reminds me of Kalapse/Qwerty in their primes (or even me before I became a peter griffin-like drunk). #Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

You know, I don't post on PHT anywhere near as much as I used to. I'm strictly NBA thread and that's it these days. But I do lurk. And I will say this much, I want to have emotional, internet sex with Eminor3rd. This dude believes in the numbers and he backs it up. He reminds me of Kalapse/Qwerty in their primes (or even me before I became a peter griffin-like drunk). #Eminor3rd

 

[Quin]

You know, I don't post on PHT anywhere near as much as I used to. I'm strictly NBA thread and that's it these days. But I do lurk. And I will say this much, I want to have emotional, internet sex with Eminor3rd. This dude believes in the numbers and he backs it up. He reminds me of Kalapse/Qwerty in their primes (or even me before I became a peter griffin-like drunk). #Eminor3rd

 

 

God damn that was beautiful.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Alright.

 

I just asked Dan Szymborski about this, who is the inventor of the ZiPS projection system and works for ESPN (I play TF2 with him on Steam). I'm going to post the conversation verbatim:

 

Eminor3rd: Have you done your own equivalencies for NPB stats?

[AiF] Zim: Yup

[AiF] Zim: Couldn't project if I didn't!

Eminor3rd: And how do they compare to MiLB? I've heard roughly AAA, is that true?

Eminor3rd: or do you just have linear weights for every type of event

[AiF] Zim: Like AAA+.5

[AiF] Zim: BA type stuff almost no hit, HRs bigger hit than moving from AAA

 

There you have it. Not opinion, but statistical research on equivalencies that show NPB numbers to be roughly AAA level and then some. And this is coming from one of the biggest names in this tiny field, so much so that ESPN uses his numbers.

And I still don't care about any of that, but whatever. You win, I'll retract my statements about NPB players being incapable of making it out of AA and being far lesser than AAA guys. Of course I still stand by everything else I said, i.e. that the league sucks, the stress level on a pitcher is far lesser than anything they'd have to experience in MLB & as such the pitch count worries are probably overblown, and if quality AAA players/fringe MLB guys are the equivalent to most of your star NPB players then I don't see why they wouldn't beat the unholy dogs*** out of the NPB league if enough of them ever went over there at once. Caulfield says there are rules in effect preventing that, and good, there should be, because it would be embarrassing overwise. The goal over there is to win; the goal here in America is to create enough competition to develop the few legitimate prospects that exist around the league while creating an opportunity for fringe-roster players and rehabbing MLB vets to get playing time. Should the games matter as they do in Japan you wouldn't bench your best performers to let a top prospect struggle while you're contending, nor would you give out gift organizational promotions to under qualified prospects simply to maintain an organizational status quo. In Japan you throw a 1000 pitches to be a living god, in America you throw 50% breaking balls in important games/situations just because your pitching coaches want you to develop the pitch.

 

But otherwise, I agree that your work here is impressive and you are definitely devoted to the numbers at a level where you should honestly pursue a career in baseball if you're not doing so already. And I don't like it when you disagree with me. Please refrain from doing that, just agree with me please.

 

[pettie4sox]

And I still don't care about any of that, but whatever. You win, I'll retract my statements about NPB players being incapable of making it out of AA and being far lesser than AAA guys. Of course I still stand by everything else I said, i.e. that the league sucks, the stress level on a pitcher is far lesser than anything they'd have to experience in MLB & as such the pitch count worries are probably overblown, and if quality AAA players/fringe MLB guys are the equivalent to most of your star NPB players then I don't see why they wouldn't beat the unholy dogs*** out of the NPB league if enough of them ever went over there at once. Caulfield says there are rules in effect preventing that, and good, there should be, because it would be embarrassing overwise. The goal over there is to win; the goal here in America is to create enough competition to develop the few legitimate prospects that exist around the league while creating an opportunity for fringe-roster players and rehabbing MLB vets to get playing time. Should the games matter as they do in Japan you wouldn't bench your best performers to let a top prospect struggle while you're contending, nor would you give out gift organizational promotions to under qualified prospects simply to maintain an organizational status quo. In Japan you throw a 1000 pitches to be a living god, in America you throw 50% breaking balls in important games/situations just because your pitching coaches want you to develop the pitch.

 

But otherwise, I agree that your work here is impressive and you are definitely devoted to the numbers at a level where you should honestly pursue a career in baseball if you're not doing so already. And I don't like it when you disagree with me. Please refrain from doing that, just agree with me please.

 

You are entitled to your own opinion. You can think the league sucks but most people with baseball knowledge will simply disagree with you. The MLB is the MLB and the NPB is the NPB. They have completely different playing styles. The MLB is a conglomerate of the world's best literally. The NPB is primarily Japanese. So yeah, it should be no shock that the world's best would beat a league full of the best Japanese players. Most of the good players aren't even America in the MLB which is kind of ironic if you ask me.

[witesoxfan]

You know, I don't post on PHT anywhere near as much as I used to. I'm strictly NBA thread and that's it these days. But I do lurk. And I will say this much, I want to have emotional, internet sex with Eminor3rd. This dude believes in the numbers and he backs it up. He reminds me of Kalapse/Qwerty in their primes (or even me before I became a peter griffin-like drunk). #Eminor3rd

 

What type of internet sex? There are lots

[Eminor3rd]

And I still don't care about any of that, but whatever. You win, I'll retract my statements about NPB players being incapable of making it out of AA and being far lesser than AAA guys. Of course I still stand by everything else I said, i.e. that the league sucks, the stress level on a pitcher is far lesser than anything they'd have to experience in MLB & as such the pitch count worries are probably overblown, and if quality AAA players/fringe MLB guys are the equivalent to most of your star NPB players then I don't see why they wouldn't beat the unholy dogs*** out of the NPB league if enough of them ever went over there at once. Caulfield says there are rules in effect preventing that, and good, there should be, because it would be embarrassing overwise. The goal over there is to win; the goal here in America is to create enough competition to develop the few legitimate prospects that exist around the league while creating an opportunity for fringe-roster players and rehabbing MLB vets to get playing time. Should the games matter as they do in Japan you wouldn't bench your best performers to let a top prospect struggle while you're contending, nor would you give out gift organizational promotions to under qualified prospects simply to maintain an organizational status quo. In Japan you throw a 1000 pitches to be a living god, in America you throw 50% breaking balls in important games/situations just because your pitching coaches want you to develop the pitch.

 

But otherwise, I agree that your work here is impressive and you are definitely devoted to the numbers at a level where you should honestly pursue a career in baseball if you're not doing so already. And I don't like it when you disagree with me. Please refrain from doing that, just agree with me please.

 

Deal. Thanks

[The Ultimate Champion]

What type of internet sex? There are lots

Full-on, hardcore intellectual penetration is what I would believe he's referring to. But I wouldn't even attempt that with EMinor anyway especially not when dealing with trends, statistics, prospects, anything like that. If you don't wear the proper intellectual lingerie you're probably not going to entice him at all, he'll just scoff at you & walk away, leaving you with no chance to mentally ejaculate in the company of another and far too ashamed to try to do it for yourself.

[Kyyle23]

so past the J4L porn talk and NPB sucks talk, how long will this process take?

[The Ultimate Champion]

You are entitled to your own opinion. You can think the league sucks but most people with baseball knowledge will simply disagree with you. The MLB is the MLB and the NPB is the NPB. They have completely different playing styles. The MLB is a conglomerate of the world's best literally. The NPB is primarily Japanese. So yeah, it should be no shock that the world's best would beat a league full of the best Japanese players. Most of the good players aren't even America in the MLB which is kind of ironic if you ask me.

I'm just being a typical all-or-nothing type of fan ready & fully willing to dismiss anything less than MLB excellence. NPB, if perfectly on par with AAA, "sucks" to me just like AAA does. However, in both leagues, there are exceptional talents which appear here and there, but unlike AAA, in Japan they stick around because there is no other higher level to transition to. I'm just an asshole sometimes in general, but I do respect Japanese culture & the way their athletes approach sports. As an MMA fan I've followed MMA in Japan, totally different sport, but in both MMA & baseball I can tell the approach to sports is just about completely opposite. In Japan it's about honor, respect, tradition, the fighting spirit, the art form, basically it seems like sports are done in large part to show how exceptional the human body & spirit can be. Winning isn't everything. In contrast, in America (and Canada & Brazil in MMA) it's all about the money, the records, bigger is better, the lifestyle, the status, the jaw-dropping amazement factor, etc. In MLB the best athletes may roid to the gills to become superhuman, and it's a giant sponsor-aided dick measuring contest where how fast you can run or how high you can jump supersedes the respect you have for the sport & how you treat other people. In Japan, I doubt many athletes would say "If you ain't cheatin you ain't tryin" or "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." With that said, while as a fan it warms my heart when I read about how Ichiro won't spit on the field or in any way disgrace the dugout, if I had Ichiro on my team I'd gladly ship him out of town for some spoiled brat rich kid with the ability to hit a baseball 450ft. That's how I approach the game as a fan, which probably explains why I'm a dick.

[The Ultimate Champion]

so past the J4L porn talk and NPB sucks talk, how long will this process take?

Tanaka & the posting process? Who knows. The teams all are going to give out $20M bids, it's just a question of how long his agent can drag this thing out before teams start looking differently at Ubaldo, Garza, and Santana. That could be a week or more IMO.

[Eminor3rd]

so past the J4L porn talk and NPB sucks talk, how long will this process take?

 

I think it's like 25 days

[southsider2k5]

White Sox aren't rated in top 10 most likely to sign Tanaka.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masa...e-japanese-ace/

 

[Quin]

White Sox aren't rated in top 10 most likely to sign Tanaka.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masa...e-japanese-ace/

 

I'd say more likely than the Tigers or Rangers.

 

[pettie4sox]

I really hope it's an NL team.

[southsider2k5]

With the history of starting pitching coming to MLB, I almost hope it is the Cubs in that 7 year $150 range.