Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[BlackSox13]

Just my take on teams and possibilities.

 

AL West

 

Rangers- seem rather tapped for money so my guess is doubtful.

 

Oakland- I just don't see them making this kind of commitment given the money being talked about

 

Seattle- confusing. Some say they have the money and some say they don't. They do need money in the near future to extend Felix so....

 

Astros- don't know if they have the money but its hard to see them making this kind of commitment.

 

Angels- last I read they don't have the money, period.

 

AL East

 

Yanks- they have the money since they won't be able to stay under the luxury tax cap but NY media is a circus and may not appeal to Tanaka. Talk about pitching under a microscope, Irabu found that out. They do have Ichiro which could help. In the end my guess is the Yanks won't land Tanaka.

 

Boston- too much money tied up in their current rotation, plus the DiceK debacle could be a factor.

 

Rays- naa, just don't see it.

 

Jays- I think a lot will depend on how much money/years Tanaka is looking for. For now a real possibility.

 

O's- not sure about the money they may have but given the competition in that division I just don't see Baltimore appealing at all.

 

AL Central

 

Sox- I think is more realistic than given credit for. Smaller media market and more kind than say the east coast markets. Iguchi and Takatsu give the Sox some history with Japanese players and the Sox have the money.

 

Tigers- don't see it. They need money to extend Sherzer/ Miggy and that going to cost!

 

Royals- just can't see it.

 

Tribe- could come out of nowhere, not sure how much money they have to spend. For now they are a real possibility.

 

Twinkies- they have some money to spend and are looking for another starter so its possible but in the end I'd guess they're outbid.

 

NL East

 

Braves- don't have the money and are looking to extend Freeman/ Hayward

 

Mets- they have the money from what I've read but given the NY media and the lack of the mets contending I just don't see it.

 

Marlins- no friggin way.

 

Philly- tapped for money, end of story.

 

Nats- this I can see although they're looking to extend a few players in the near future so its not clear.

 

NL Central

 

Cubs- there's nothing enticing about the Cubs, at all. They are tied up with money/bad contracts and won't be contending anytime soon. They can't even make up their minds on whether to trade or extend Shark. No chance of Tanaka landing with the cubs, just a media ploy by the FO to give fans false hope because the cubs have done nothing to improve this team and the fans are rightfully pissed.

 

Pirates- limited funds in a small market and also looking to extend a few guys as well.

 

Brewers- could come out of nowhere. Seem to have some money and need pitching,could be a fit.

 

Cards- nope and dare I say pointless. With their young pitching talent why the hell would they?

 

Reds- don't have the funds as far as I know, could be wrong.

 

NL West

 

Dodgers- with the financial backing they have its very possible. What's interesting is they are looking to extend Kershaw and Ramirez so I question just how serious about Tanaka they really are. Could try to drive the price up on the DBacks.

 

DBacks- a very real possibility. They have money are looking for a front line pitcher. Seems a good fit.

 

Giants- meh, more kicking tires than anything. Not sure they have the money.

 

Rockies- should have some money and definitely need the pitching. Not sure how enticing the Rox are considering the park and tough division theyre in.

 

Padres- no comment necessary.

 

I'm guessing Tanaka signs with one of the DBacks, Sox, Nat's, Dodgers, Mariners. Just my uneducated guess is all. If I missed something or speculated wrong , feel free to point it because that's what discussions are for.

 

 

[ptatc]

[/b]

 

I believe I remember hearing that is where he started, but as partners have wanted out over the years, he has bought up many other shares of the team. Can anyone confirm or deny?

JR has the option to buy out anybody before they sell the shares to someone else. He has slowly increased his holding in the group.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I think if KW likes Tanaka, Hahn will do some contract magic like he did with JDA and Paulie (Signing bonus, Arbitration Opt-out, and deferred money) to try and sign him.

Personally I don't care if the Sox offer him a zillion year deal at twenty zillion dollars as long as they have an out somewhere in there after the 3rd or 4th year; allowing Tanaka to opt in to arbitration provides them with an out as a potential non-tender. That would work. What sucks though is that most of these mid-contract opt-outs offer no safety to the team because the opt out only occurs if the player believes he can get more money whereas if the player drops off dramatically the club is stuck with a massive amount of bad guaranteed money and years.

 

IMO the worst scenario of those that would seem most reasonable would be locking Tanaka up for a lot of years at a high annual value & then having him be terrible on the field, but getting regular playing time anyway because of the contract. If he gets hurt it's not going to be so bad because most likely you're going to recover some of that money on insurance, and you should be able to acquire an at least competent starter to take over the workload if there's no one to call up.

[Soxbadger]

JR has the option to buy out anybody before they sell the shares to someone else. He has slowly increased his holding in the group.

 

Almost all closely held corps have a right of first refusal.

[ptatc]

Almost all closely held corps have a right of first refusal.

My understanding is that JR is the only one in the group that has this option even though he is not the majority shareholder.

 

I'm not a business guy so I'm not sure if that is common or not.

[Soxbadger]

My understanding is that JR is the only one in the group that has this option even though he is not the majority shareholder.

 

I'm not a business guy so I'm not sure if that is common or not.

 

That would be extremely uncommon. In almost all instances the person with the most money has the most leverage. Its very possible that somehow Jerry got everyone to sign away their rights. I just would not be extremely confident that 1% can force a sale by 99% even if the agreement says 1% can.

 

I basically think that most judges would write in a right of first refusal for the 99%.

 

There is obviously no real way to tell without looking at the agreements.

 

Basically putting the pieces together this is what it sounds like:

 

Corp X is owned by JR. The White Sox Corp is owned by A, B, C. ABC all agreed to let Corp X make all decisions relating to White Sox Corp. As ABC are not owners of Corp X, they have no power in the running Corp X, thus JR can make all the decisions.

 

 

[Steve9347]

If the Sox pull off what many here regard as "The Impossible" and sign Tanaka, does that change anyone's perception of the Sox chance to win this season? Or does everyone leave 2014 as "work in progress"?

They pitched fine last year and stunk. There's still WAY too many variables on offense to think they'd be any good. Our (arguably) best hitter has never seen a Major League pitch, for Christ's sake.

[fathom]

I'm guessing Tanaka signs with one of the DBacks, Sox, Nat's, Dodgers, Mariners. Just my uneducated guess is all. If I missed something or speculated wrong , feel free to point it because that's what discussions are for.

 

I would put it in this order:

 

1- Yankees

2- Cubs

3- Mariners

4- Dodgers

5- Angels

6- Diamondbacks

7- Nationals

8- Phillies

9- White Sox

[witesoxfan]

Personally I don't care if the Sox offer him a zillion year deal at twenty zillion dollars as long as they have an out somewhere in there after the 3rd or 4th year; allowing Tanaka to opt in to arbitration provides them with an out as a potential non-tender. That would work. What sucks though is that most of these mid-contract opt-outs offer no safety to the team because the opt out only occurs if the player believes he can get more money whereas if the player drops off dramatically the club is stuck with a massive amount of bad guaranteed money and years.

 

IMO the worst scenario of those that would seem most reasonable would be locking Tanaka up for a lot of years at a high annual value & then having him be terrible on the field, but getting regular playing time anyway because of the contract. If he gets hurt it's not going to be so bad because most likely you're going to recover some of that money on insurance, and you should be able to acquire an at least competent starter to take over the workload if there's no one to call up.

 

That's because players themselves are elastic non-necessary monopolies. They are each selling their very own, individual services. In the free agent market, teams have very, very little leverage when bidding on players, while the player has all kinds of leverage. The players themselves can overprice themselves from the market, and teams do not need to bid on their services, as most of these types are easily substitutable, but the relative utility of the players varies greatly and as the player's utility increases, their value increases as well and typically the overall value required to buy or retain those services is exponential (a below average starting pitcher can be had for 1 year, $5 million while an ace caliber starting pitcher may require $150 million to sign).

 

If the White Sox say to Masahiro Tanaka "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract over 6 years, but we want to be able to get out of the deal after 4 years at a total of $80 million if we are not happy with your production," the Yankees will come in and say "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract, no strings attached." Who is he going to sign for? Beyond that, if Tanaka says "I want the ability to opt out after 4 years," the Yankees may bow out but the Mariners could surely come in and say "That's perfectly fine, we believe you are a great pitcher and that we will be able to resign you if you choose to do so."

 

This is why you will not be able to build in the out clause for the White Sox. You can surely do so for Tanaka.

[witesoxfan]

They pitched fine last year and stunk. There's still WAY too many variables on offense to think they'd be any good. Our (arguably) best hitter has never seen a Major League pitch, for Christ's sake.

 

They pitched OK last year. Overall, it was a very average pitching staff.

[southsider2k5]

JR has the option to buy out anybody before they sell the shares to someone else. He has slowly increased his holding in the group.

 

Makes sense with what I remembered hearing. Thanks.

[Quin]

They pitched fine last year and stunk. There's still WAY too many variables on offense to think they'd be any good. Our (arguably) best hitter has never seen a Major League pitch, for Christ's sake.

 

But Paulie has seen lots of pitches?

[The Ultimate Champion]

That's because players themselves are elastic non-necessary monopolies. They are each selling their very own, individual services. In the free agent market, teams have very, very little leverage when bidding on players, while the player has all kinds of leverage. The players themselves can overprice themselves from the market, and teams do not need to bid on their services, as most of these types are easily substitutable, but the relative utility of the players varies greatly and as the player's utility increases, their value increases as well and typically the overall value required to buy or retain those services is exponential (a below average starting pitcher can be had for 1 year, $5 million while an ace caliber starting pitcher may require $150 million to sign).

 

If the White Sox say to Masahiro Tanaka "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract over 6 years, but we want to be able to get out of the deal after 4 years at a total of $80 million if we are not happy with your production," the Yankees will come in and say "We are willing to sign you to a $120 million contract, no strings attached." Who is he going to sign for? Beyond that, if Tanaka says "I want the ability to opt out after 4 years," the Yankees may bow out but the Mariners could surely come in and say "That's perfectly fine, we believe you are a great pitcher and that we will be able to resign you if you choose to do so."

 

This is why you will not be able to build in the out clause for the White Sox. You can surely do so for Tanaka.

I think in general though some teams are a little too happy to hand out these deals. I mean, did the Yanks *really* have to give CC an opt-out to sign him at the absolute max of what his market rate could possibly be? Even more, did the Rangers *have* to get Elvis Andrus so badly that they had to include that clause?

 

I agree though, someone will come in and guaranteed a ton of years and money. The only positive for Tanaka over those kinds of deals is that if the Sox guarantee a lot of $$ in the first 3 years and then let him him opt into arbitration, it sets him into arbitration at a salary height that would be comparable to free agency and puts him on a course for FA in 6 years.

 

I don't think that's enough though.

 

I think any shorter deal would have to be a lot of money up front with probably a player opt-out after 3 years, or just a no-strings-attached 3 or 4 year deal ala Oakland signing Cespedes. It would be a gamble for Tanaka to take certainly, but one that for all we know could have him well under 30 years of age and negotiating a 10-year, $300M+ contract in free agency. Not that it would happen, but as an MLB-proven FA ace under 30 and open to all 30 teams without deadlines or posting fees (although likely a draft pick as the cost) he could stand to earn a hell of a lot more money than anything he'll see even from the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels or Theo right now.

 

For the Sox, a deal like that above would be great because 1) they would have an out should things go bad, and 2) they should have a feel after year 2 as to whether or not they could/should re-sign him, which would then allow them to make a trade and convert some of his value into prospects.

[Harry Chappas]

My understanding is that JR is the only one in the group that has this option even though he is not the majority shareholder.

 

I'm not a business guy so I'm not sure if that is common or not.

 

While JR does not own the most he spearheaded the group in the late 70's to buy the team and as such is the defacto leader and continues to be the face of the operation and probably wrote in the right of first refusal as I think the story goes that most of the investors kind of took a flyer on the investment without expecting much.

 

Lee Stern owns a bigger chunk as does I think Pat Bowlen

[The Ultimate Champion]

Actually a 4-year, $80M deal (not including posting) with Seattle would probably be the best thing Tanaka could do for himself. He'd put himself into an appropriate cultural & pitching environment and guarantee his family enough money for life, and then, if he likes it and wants to stay, and proves he is good enough, then he'll put himself into position for a massive, long-term FA contract. If Seattle wanted to do something like that, even if we were willing to match, given the Cell's reputation I doubt we'd have a chance. And we're certainly not getting into 6-8 year territory at the annual salaries teams like the Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers are going to consider.

 

Just a pipe dream. Time to bump the Castro thread again IMO, or talk more about DeAza. I actually think it's likelier that the Sox get back salary from another team as a consequence of their signing of Tanaka than it is the Sox sign Tanaka themselves.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I find it funny that since you deem Tanaka a pipe dream and then go on and advise people to bump the Castro thread.

We can make that deal with the Astros if we want to. We may have to get a little crazy, but that's doable.

 

OTOH we could offer Tanaka something stupid and still be beaten down by 2-4 other clubs.

[BlackSox13]

I would put it in this order:

 

1- Yankees

2- Cubs

3- Mariners

4- Dodgers

5- Angels

6- Diamondbacks

7- Nationals

8- Phillies

9- White Sox

IMO, you can take Philly off the list due to they don't have the money right now unless they move some of their high priced pitching which is doubtful. They've been trying so far this off season and there seems to no interest at this point.

 

I'd take the cubs off that list too. I just don't buy into the " we won't be outbid" stuff coming from their FO. I don't see them having the money for a costly long term commitment like Tanaka and I just can't see Tanaka having interest with better teams having money to offer. Just some PR bulls*** from the cubs FO so when they come up empty they can tell their fans they tried and then play up how they are kind of insulted that Tanaka wouldn't sign with the cubs despite offering up big money therefore putting the blame on Tanaka and not the FO in the minds of cub fans. More child psychology than anything, or misdirection like a majic trick.

 

The Halo's are tapped unless one of two things happen. 1- they trade away a big contract player to make payroll space or 2- they somehow come up with the money that extends them beyond the luxury tax that say they are adamant to stay under.

 

As for the Yanks, I'm just not sold on Tanaka's interest in them. I know money talks but there are other teams that can offer what Tanaka is looking for and something tells me the NY media just might discourage him.

 

Just my thought is all. I think a serious case can be made for the remaining five teams though. Even then I not completely sold on the Mariners and Dodgers due to conflicting reports in the media about their finances as well as the Dodgers strong desire to extend Kershaw and Ramirez which will cost them HUGE money.

 

If true it could realistically come down to the DBacks, Nat's and Sox. Well, that's my attempt at the process of elimination.

 

 

[Jose Abreu]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 5m

Rick Hahn, Kenny Williams and Robin Ventura met with Masahiro Tanaka today in LA. Hahn said meeting was "exploratory in nature." #WhiteSox

[Jose Abreu]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 4m

#WhiteSox will abstain from any further comments until Masahiro Tanaka makes his final decision.

[Marty34]

Things that I think are truths about Tanaka and the Sox

 

1. All things being equal, Tanaka will sign with an NL team. AL teams have to pony up for pitching because it's perceived as a tougher league.

2. The Sox aren't going to be the highest bidder. The Sox have to be competitive with the overall offer while giving him an out option after three or four years.

[Jose Abreu]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 5m

Hahn said meeting was "exploratory in nature." #WhiteSox

Translation: Tanaka will not sign with us.

[Baron]

Translation: Tanaka will not sign with us.

 

Sounds like they are doing what every team is doing. Exploring what his interests are.

[southsider2k5]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 4m

#WhiteSox will abstain from any further comments until Masahiro Tanaka makes his final decision.

 

Huh. Interesting. Going into stealth mode.

[BlackSox13]

Sounds like they are doing what every team is doing. Exploring what his interests are.

Exactly. Just trying to get an idea about the length of contract and money per year he's looking for as well as finding out his level of interest in teams that are interested in him. The Sox staying away from commitments until Tanaka has signed tells me the Sox feel they have a realistic chance at signing him, for now anyway. How much of a chance is very debatable but a chance never the less.

[Dick Allen]

The fact that Hahn, KW and the boy wonder were all there indicates the Sox were doing a little selling.