Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[Balta1701]

I am not sure on that. I have been running my own payroll number, and have used Abreu at $ 17M this year, giving them the $ 83M figure.

If you're counting that then you're not counting the guys it takes to fill out the roster. Right now that's >$5 million.

[caulfield12]

That team would probably get you about 70-75 wins NEXT YEAR.

 

I don't think they would break out until at least 2015.

 

 

I think right now we're comfortably looking at a 73-77 win team without any major injuries, maybe .500 if everything breaks right.

[Jose Abreu]

I don't think we'll make any signings bigger than mine

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I won't doubt Slick Rick on being a player for Tanaka simply because of his ninja sneak attack on Abreu. I'm not counting on it, but I'm crossing my fingers.

[witesoxfan]

The problem with Tanaka is that it's likely going to take a $100-120 mill commitment over 5-6 years. I think he'll be fine, but the track record on Japanese pitchers has been skittish at best. Darvish has been phenomenal, but Matsuzaka was overhyped and Kei Igawa was absolutely brutal. There are others too, primarily relievers, and they've been hit or miss too.

 

I think they'll probably bid $20 mill, but their overall interest will be tepid, and he'll end up elsewhere.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The problem with Tanaka is that it's likely going to take a $100-120 mill commitment over 5-6 years. I think he'll be fine, but the track record on Japanese pitchers has been skittish at best. Darvish has been phenomenal, but Matsuzaka was overhyped and Kei Igawa was absolutely brutal. There are others too, primarily relievers, and they've been hit or miss too.

 

I think they'll probably bid $20 mill, but their overall interest will be tepid, and he'll end up elsewhere.

 

I don't see him getting $20M a year. That's a GIGANTIC risk for an unproven player.

 

I'm going to put my guess at..... Cubs, 7 yrs/$105M.

 

EDIT: And I understand 7 yrs is a gigantic risk too, I'm just meeting the idea that he will get $100+M. If the Sox got involved, I'd want to see them at 5 yrs/$70M.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Chilihead90

[witesoxfan]

I don't think that's unreasonable either. I think he'll end up getting more per year, but I think you and I have the low and high limits as to his yearly salaries. I do think 7 years is too much, but I've been wrong before.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I don't think that's unreasonable either. I think he'll end up getting more per year, but I think you and I have the low and high limits as to his yearly salaries. I do think 7 years is too much, but I've been wrong before.

 

If writers weren't suggesting that he will get $100M+, I would have predicted someone would sign him for 5 yrs/$80M.

[caulfield12]

The problem with Tanaka is that it's likely going to take a $100-120 mill commitment over 5-6 years. I think he'll be fine, but the track record on Japanese pitchers has been skittish at best. Darvish has been phenomenal, but Matsuzaka was overhyped and Kei Igawa was absolutely brutal. There are others too, primarily relievers, and they've been hit or miss too.

 

I think they'll probably bid $20 mill, but their overall interest will be tepid, and he'll end up elsewhere.

 

 

Japanese pitchers tend to do better outside of the spotlight.

 

Irabu ended up killing himself, Igawa was a disaster in NY, Hideo Nomo was successful for a couple of seasons until hitters figured him out.

 

Then you have the Dice-K fiasco.

 

The under-the-radar guys like Iwakuma with the Mariners have tended to fare better. Of course, it helps to pitch at Safeco or in the NL West. Kuroda's been decent, but the only contract that has worked out (so far) was Darvish, and it's not like he's single-handedly led the Rangers back to the promised land, either. One thing he has done was improve...instead of starting off well and then nosediving or getting injured.

[caulfield12]

If writers weren't suggesting that he will get $100M+, I would have predicted someone would sign him for 5 yrs/$80M.

 

 

Which is still about $35 million than the White Sox have ever paid a pitcher, including Buehrle.

 

It's one thing to sign Iguchi for two years off a video, but you better have a lot more scouting support and due diligence from Hahn, Williams and Cooper to make this big of an investment.

[ScottyDo]

Which is still about $35 million than the White Sox have ever paid a pitcher, including Buehrle.

 

It's one thing to sign Iguchi for two years off a video, but you better have a lot more scouting support and due diligence from Hahn, Williams and Cooper to make this big of an investment.

Do we not have some semblance of a scouting outpost in Japan/Asia? If not, that seems negligent.

[witesoxfan]

Japanese pitchers tend to do better outside of the spotlight.

 

Irabu ended up killing himself, Igawa was a disaster in NY, Hideo Nomo was successful for a couple of seasons until hitters figured him out.

 

Then you have the Dice-K fiasco.

 

The under-the-radar guys like Iwakuma with the Mariners have tended to fare better. Of course, it helps to pitch at Safeco or in the NL West. Kuroda's been decent, but the only contract that has worked out (so far) was Darvish, and it's not like he's single-handedly led the Rangers back to the promised land, either. One thing he has done was improve...instead of starting off well and then nosediving or getting injured.

 

Kuroda has been just fine in both LA and New York. Nomo was BETTER when he was pitching in a big market. I don't buy this theory at all.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 8m

 

1 GM who wont be bidding for tanaka: "i dont think theres any doubt" he'll get more than $100M

[SoxAce]

Looks like he won't be after all.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 15m

 

Tanaka will not be posted according to several reports out of Japan, per @nytimes.

 

Peter Gammons reporting it too.

[Eminor3rd]

Japanese pitchers tend to do better outside of the spotlight.

 

Irabu ended up killing himself, Igawa was a disaster in NY, Hideo Nomo was successful for a couple of seasons until hitters figured him out.

 

Then you have the Dice-K fiasco.

 

The under-the-radar guys like Iwakuma with the Mariners have tended to fare better. Of course, it helps to pitch at Safeco or in the NL West. Kuroda's been decent, but the only contract that has worked out (so far) was Darvish, and it's not like he's single-handedly led the Rangers back to the promised land, either. One thing he has done was improve...instead of starting off well and then nosediving or getting injured.

 

There's not anywhere near enough of a track record to make a generalization like that.

[southsider2k5]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 3m

 

No decision yet from Rakuten on Masahiro Tanaka.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 15m

 

Plot thickens. Yakyubaka: “According to Tokyo Sports, someone with Rakuten Eagles received [a] self-introductory e-mail from Scott Boras.”

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I heard on MLB Network that the Eagles are willing to offer him $12M a year to stay in Japan. I don't follow salaries in Japan, but I'd have to think that makes him the highest paid player over there by a wide margin.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I wonder if the Eagles will try and make some sort of deal with Tanaka to say "Ok, we will let you go to the US, but you owe us 20% of every contract you sign in the US." That way they keep making money off the guy, while Tanaka makes more money and gets the chance to play in the US like he wants to.

 

The problem with that is they may piss off other Japanese players from wanting to play for them knowing that they may ask for part of your money to post you, but if other teams follow suit, then maybe they roll the dice on that that happening and take their 20%.

[caulfield12]

I wonder if the Eagles will try and make some sort of deal with Tanaka to say "Ok, we will let you go to the US, but you owe us 20% of every contract you sign in the US." That way they keep making money off the guy, while Tanaka makes more money and gets the chance to play in the US like he wants to.

 

The problem with that is they may piss off other Japanese players from wanting to play for them knowing that they may ask for part of your money to post you, but if other teams follow suit, then maybe they roll the dice on that that happening and take their 20%.

 

 

They were counting on getting $40-60 million, and, as things currently stand, it would be just $20 million.

 

Looks like we're going to have a game of chicken over the next couple of years with the pitcher, his agent and the Eagles.

[Kyyle23]

You would think this game of chicken would end fairly quickly. The longer he stays in Japan, the more miles on his arm, a chance of injury, the less he is worth to the MLB

[witesoxfan]

You would think this game of chicken would end fairly quickly. The longer he stays in Japan, the more miles on his arm, a chance of injury, the less he is worth to the MLB

 

Rakuten doesn't give an eff

[Kyyle23]

Rakuten doesn't give an eff

 

If they want their posting fee, they should. Imagine if they sign this guy to a massive deal and he blows out his elbow this season. Whoops

[Balta1701]

They were counting on getting $40-60 million, and, as things currently stand, it would be just $20 million.

 

Looks like we're going to have a game of chicken over the next couple of years with the pitcher, his agent and the Eagles.

The MLB plan looked great to every one of their owners but somehow I think they forgot that the Japanese teams have some leverage here.

 

I still come back to my version of this...every team that bids is out the money they bid as a posting fee and the whole pot goes to the Japanese team. That way you don't have 29 teams bidding for the same guy.

[iamshack]

The MLB plan looked great to every one of their owners but somehow I think they forgot that the Japanese teams have some leverage here.

 

I still come back to my version of this...every team that bids is out the money they bid as a posting fee and the whole pot goes to the Japanese team. That way you don't have 29 teams bidding for the same guy.

Or even half would do the trick...