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Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees


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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 05:25 PM)
It really makes very little sense to bring up Garza. Tanaka is a different story. Young pitcher who could be next to Sale for years and drastically improve the team. Garza doesnt drastically improve the team and we know what he is.

I know he is older, but he will also be $50 million cheaper, I think Garza and Coop can really work well together where he is more of a ground ball pitcher. He is only 30 and has won some big playoff games. 2009 ALCS MVP. We need a veteran right handed SP who can split up the lefties. Garza can eat innings and is a gamer. Also lastly, he will not cost us draft picks. Now IMO that is just as big enough reason to go after him if you ask me. All the other veteran starters FA's will cost picks.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 06:42 PM)
I know he is older, but he will also be $50 million cheaper, I think Garza and Coop can really work well together where he is more of a ground ball pitcher. He is only 30 and has won some big playoff games. 2009 ALCS MVP. We need a veteran right handed SP who can split up the lefties. Garza can eat innings and is a gamer. Also lastly, he will not cost us draft picks. Now IMO that is just as big enough reason to go after him if you ask me. All the other veteran starters FA's will cost picks.

you dont just go from being a fly ball pitcher to a ground ball pitcher on the wrong side of 30 no matter how good Coop is.

 

Tanaka won't cost draft picks either. Getting no one won't cost us draft picks either.

 

Honestly I just dont think there's enough guarantee he outperforms even Erik Johnson enough to warrant what is certain to be a huge contract. He'd be Vazquez or Jackson v. 2.0

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 05:42 PM)
I know he is older, but he will also be $50 million cheaper, I think Garza and Coop can really work well together where he is more of a ground ball pitcher. He is only 30 and has won some big playoff games. 2009 ALCS MVP. We need a veteran right handed SP who can split up the lefties. Garza can eat innings and is a gamer. Also lastly, he will not cost us draft picks. Now IMO that is just as big enough reason to go after him if you ask me. All the other veteran starters FA's will cost picks.

 

The $50 million is not the point. Garza is not a piece you sign and expect him to get better over the life of the deal - you expect him to get worse. You also expect him to be a #3 starter. Tanaka you expect to get better and to be a potential ace.

 

Garza does not push them over the top this year nor next year, and his production could just as easily be matched by Johnson, Surkamp, or Paulino at 4.1% percent of the cost (that's $500k compared to $12 mill). Those are also team controlled years rather than team contractually obligated years.

 

Matt Garza is a good pitcher, but he is not right for the White Sox.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 05:46 PM)
you dont just go from being a fly ball pitcher to a ground ball pitcher on the wrong side of 30 no matter how good Coop is.

 

Tanaka won't cost draft picks either. Getting no one won't cost us draft picks either.

 

Honestly I just dont think there's enough guarantee he outperforms even Erik Johnson enough to warrant what is certain to be a huge contract. He'd be Vazquez or Jackson v. 2.0

I may be in the minority, but I do believe he can be effective with us. If the Sox simply only want to run 20 year olds to the mound, then I can understand not paying Garza the big bucks. But to say he will suck for us because of the way he finished the season in Texas is irrational.

 

I want Tanaka more than the next guy, but is it realistic? And since it is not likely realistic do you guys simply want give our prospects a chance to develop in spots 4 and 5? I can respect that but them Hahn BETTER go after Scherzer next winter for sure.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 04:42 PM)
I know he is older, but he will also be $50 million cheaper, I think Garza and Coop can really work well together where he is more of a ground ball pitcher. He is only 30 and has won some big playoff games. 2009 ALCS MVP. We need a veteran right handed SP who can split up the lefties. Garza can eat innings and is a gamer. Also lastly, he will not cost us draft picks. Now IMO that is just as big enough reason to go after him if you ask me. All the other veteran starters FA's will cost picks.

That was 2008, and he's still living off of it. Somebody earlier posted MG has 6 total WAR over last 4 seasons - that speaks for itself.

 

Just say no.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 06:52 PM)
I may be in the minority, but I do believe he can be effective with us. If the Sox simply only want to run 20 year olds to the mound, then I can understand not paying Garza the big bucks. But to say he will suck for us because of the way he finished the season in Texas is irrational.

 

I want Tanaka more than the next guy, but is it realistic? And since it is not likely realistic do you guys simply want give our prospects a chance to develop in spots 4 and 5? I can respect that but them Hahn BETTER go after Scherzer next winter for sure.

 

Why? Our pitching isn't a problem and doesn't figure to be.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 04:52 PM)
I may be in the minority, but I do believe he can be effective with us. If the Sox simply only want to run 20 year olds to the mound, then I can understand not paying Garza the big bucks. But to say he will suck for us because of the way he finished the season in Texas is irrational.

 

I want Tanaka more than the next guy, but is it realistic? And since it is not likely realistic do you guys simply want give our prospects a chance to develop in spots 4 and 5? I can respect that but them Hahn BETTER go after Scherzer next winter for sure.

 

Many will re-sign/options exercised between now and then, but the SP FA class next year is fairly loaded:

 

(age during '15 season)

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Homer Bailey (29)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option

Dan Haren (34) - $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Luke Hochevar (31)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31)

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Clayton Kershaw (27)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jeff Niemann (32)

Ross Ohlendorf (32)

Felipe Paulino (31) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

 

Lots of possibilities, if needed.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 05:52 PM)
I may be in the minority, but I do believe he can be effective with us. If the Sox simply only want to run 20 year olds to the mound, then I can understand not paying Garza the big bucks. But to say he will suck for us because of the way he finished the season in Texas is irrational.

 

I want Tanaka more than the next guy, but is it realistic? And since it is not likely realistic do you guys simply want give our prospects a chance to develop in spots 4 and 5? I can respect that but them Hahn BETTER go after Scherzer next winter for sure.

 

The Sox have plenty of talented pitchers that can be effective. The reason you sign Tanaka is because he can be really f***ing good. Garza has proven over the duration of his career that he is not that pitcher.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 05:59 PM)
The Sox have plenty of talented pitchers that can be effective. The reason you sign Tanaka is because he can be really f***ing good. Garza has proven over the duration of his career that he is not that pitcher.

If the season started tomorrow, who are your 4th and 5th starters? Johnson and....

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 9, 2014 -> 10:55 PM)
Man, I had no idea that Tanaka has to be signed by Jan. 24th. I was thinking that was the deadline for teams to say if they wanted to bid the $20M or not, and then there would be a separate negotiation window. Now that I know this thing only has 2 weeks left, I'll actually pay attention more when I see stories on this. Excited for this to be over.

Soxfest also starts the 24th of January. You can look at it 2 ways. The Sox are showing interest so they can say they showed interest at Soxfest when he eventually signs with the high bidder or they do sign him and Soxfest is a Hahn lovefest.

 

The Phil Rogers article ( http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/artic...p;vkey=news_cws ) compared the career innings piitched by Tanaka as a 25 year old to Frank Tanana at the same age. Tanana ended up with shoulder surgery . Tanaka/Tanana ,very similiar name. Draw you own conclusions. :P

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You don't want to pay through the teeth for Scherzer when there's a pretty high probability of him going down to injury sooner rather than later.

 

FWIW, a lot has been written about Tanaka's workload, with comparisons to Dice-K's now infamous pitch counts as well as training workload between starts.

 

The much higher probability of getting a future ace is from the draft in 2014 and 2015, if they can identify the right pitcher/s.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 06:01 PM)
If the season started tomorrow, who are your 4th and 5th starters? Johnson and....

 

As was mentioned, Surkamp or Rienzo. They'll bring in other guys on minor league invites too.

 

This is beside the point. The Sox have guys coming up and, of necessary, can go get a Garza later. Right now Garza probably takes them from 78-80 wins to 81-83. Tanaka can do way, way more than that. Moving forward, you expect Garza to decline slightly and by the end of the deal, he could easily be a 4 or 5.

 

If they signed him for 1 or 2 years, I might be ok with it, but I'm not even sure about that.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 09:39 PM)
As was mentioned, Surkamp or Rienzo. They'll bring in other guys on minor league invites too.

 

This is beside the point. The Sox have guys coming up and, of necessary, can go get a Garza later. Right now Garza probably takes them from 78-80 wins to 81-83. Tanaka can do way, way more than that. Moving forward, you expect Garza to decline slightly and by the end of the deal, he could easily be a 4 or 5.

 

If they signed him for 1 or 2 years, I might be ok with it, but I'm not even sure about that.

I just love the fact that he will not cost picks. If he will agree to a shorter deal than it will be even better. Heck if we're out of it early this year, and Garza is productive then another option is flipping him for prospects, similar to what the Cubs pulled off.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 10:11 PM)
I just love the fact that he will not cost picks. If he will agree to a shorter deal than it will be even better. Heck if we're out of it early this year, and Garza is productive then another option is flipping him for prospects, similar to what the Cubs pulled off.

 

That he will not cost a draft pick drives his price UP, not down. There are going to be pitchers available next year that won't cost picks. He's getting 3 years at the absolute bare minimum.

 

Frankly, the guy I am watching is Homer Bailey. He's a free agent set for a huge pay day after this year, but the Sox have loved him forever. Jocketty has said he's unsure if the Reds will re-sign him. Some of that is undoubtedly GM speak for "We don't need him, but if he brings his price down we'll sign him." Still, it doesn't build a good relationship, and Bailey could easily fetch $15-18 mill over a 5 year deal.

 

There's absolutely no smoke, but I could see a Freddy Garcia situation here. Trade for the guy, sign him to, say, 4/$66 with a mutual option for the 5th year for $22 mill. This is a guy that IS still getting better.

 

Frankly, I think theres a better chance of that happening than Garza. I put Bailey at like 0.04% chance of happening, while I put Garza at 0.001.

 

 

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:37 PM)
Intriguing.

 

The more I read and hear, the more I think the Sox have a legit shot at him.

 

Part of me doesn't even want to be in it because I don't want this team to have to spend almost $200M on a pitcher for 7-8 years. Unless Hahn can get creative and do something like a 4 yr/$110M deal w/ a no trade clause in which the Sox then trade Tanaka for a king's ransom after the 3rd year. Or maybe like 8 yrs/$150M and give Tanaka and opt-out after 5 years.

 

If the Sox SOMEHOW sign this guy, it will likely be with some sort of creative deal.

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QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 01:20 PM)
It would also be interesting to know of this 3 are still out west our have made it back this way. I wish someone had a hook up at American Airlines. Or we could get Clohe O'Brien on it ( sry 24 reference)

 

Pretty sure these guys dont fly American Airlines..

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