Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[Paulstar]

That would certainly be one sensible thing to do if we signed the guy...but so far it definitely seems like the org really likes Quintana. They gave him the shot above other people when he had been at AA for a month, they pushed him hard and he keeps responding well, and they traded Santiago instead of him already

Oh yeah, I'm sure the Sox like Quintana a lot. You could also add Erik Johnson as a similar guy who could be traded in that scenario.

[Balta1701]

Oh yeah, I'm sure the Sox like Quintana a lot. You could also add Erik Johnson as a similar guy who could be traded in that scenario.

Chris Beck would almost certainly be on the list of "Guys we'd be looking to trade" at some point if that scenario went down also, but there's nothing wrong with that

[Jake]

Contreras had never proven himself over 1300 IP against Japanese League competition -- I know TUC isn't a big "fan" of NPB, but it's way, way better than Cuban leagues. Jose's best year in Cuba was a "meh" season by Tanaka standards. There was a lot more risk with Contreras, who was also substantially older at age 31 when he debuted; you knew you were getting a post-prime pitcher who had only pitched against A-ball competition.

[The Ultimate Champion]

There's nothing wrong with a rebuilding team acquiring assets that help them win now, but they need to (a) also help them win in 3-5 years and (b) provide surplus value financially. If Tanaka's price is $20m over 6-8 years like TUC suggested, that doesn't satisfy part b, because that is, at best, market rate for those services. When rebuilding, there are a LOT of moving parts -- players that may or may not develop at variable rates -- and it behooves a team to maintain as much flexibility with its money as possible so that it can spend the money to shore up areas that need shored up after it sees what it has with its core.

 

JDA and Tanaka both have the upside to be worth $20m/year in market value. The JDA signing at 6/$68m (~$11m/yr) was really smart for Hahn because he purchased an asset with potential surplus value. Tanaka at 7/$140 ($20m) would not be smart for Hahn because he has then purchased a very expensive asset with no surplus value -- he has tied his hands over the next 7 years by committing a substantial portion of his resources, at top dollar rate, to something he doesn't know he'll need when it matters.

With Abreu also, we were the perfect fit. I stopped posting & even following this team for a few months, I knew nothing about Abreu then one day I checked MLBTR & was like "oh we're going to sign this guy for sure." We were just that great of a fit. Further, much in the mold of the typical White Sox acquisition, Abreu, being a DH candidate without any serious run & jump, eye-popping natural athletic skills, was probably a less desirable fit for a lot of teams, and really for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with hitting a baseball out of the ballpark from a spot in the middle of someone's batting order. I think we were able to capitalize on that to the degree that even if Abreu is just a halfway decent DH we aren't getting a bad contract, and if he turns into a star or better, we're getting one massive steal.

 

I almost feel like FA is a shortcut in a lot of ways from following the proper baseball due diligence process. It's like, go ahead and f*** up your drafts, trade your prospects who end up turning out elsewhere, make bad deals, extend older players well beyond their primes, whatever, just make sure you hit on the right FAs and all is well again. But the Yankees have shown exactly why that doesn't work, and all these Yankees currently on the periphery of the HoF like Jeter and Mariano and so on, nobody is going to associate them with the free-spending Carl Pavano Yankees, they are going to be associated with the Andy Pettite days and the Paul O'Neill days and so on. I think the reason we as Sox fans are getting excited about our future now is because Hahn has been making moves that probably aren't going to hurt much & probably will only help. We seem to be moving in the right direction as we are. I'd rather we not change course.

 

That said, I'd love a short-term guaranteed deal on Tanaka that gives us the option of getting out of the deal should it go bad, or trading him before an opt-out or whatever to recoup his value in another form. But I seriously doubt that deal is out there, because unlike Abreu, we're targeting something that absolutely everyone wants, and they want him so bad they are apparently willing to completely overlook any of his potential flaws and minimize the associated risks.

[Paulstar]

Chris Beck would almost certainly be on the list of "Guys we'd be looking to trade" at some point if that scenario went down also, but there's nothing wrong with that

Agreed. Just the added flexibility would make a lot of sense for the Sox, especially since it looks like the future catcher or left handed middle of the order bat is going to have to be acquired via trade.

[Quin]

One last thing too:

 

Let's say the Yankees sign Tanaka. The Sox make the playoffs as a WildCard in 2015. The Yankees play the Sox and start Tanaka in Game 1 vs. Sale. Are we somehow destined to lose that game? If we start Quintana #2 against CC, are we destined to lose that one, too? Or maybe we get another RHSP in that period, starting him in Game 2 and Q in Game 3. Are we destined to lose that serious, or are we destined to have a s***ty rotation or else get out-pitched and beaten in the playoffs just because we don't have Tanaka?

 

Thinking with your brain and not your dick helps at times.

 

Sale vs. CC

Tanaka vs. Kuroda

Quintana vs. Nova

Danks vs. Phelps

Johnson vs. Pineda

 

Looks a lot easier than if the Yanks had Tanaka.

 

But I'm more concerned with the Tigers...

 

Sale vs. Scherzer

Quintana vs. Verlander

Danks vs. Sanchez

Johnson vs. Porcello

Rienzo/Paulino/Surkamp vs. Smyly

 

We're pretty even for the first two match ups, but then once we hit Danks they gain the upperhand.

 

If Tanaka pitches like a Contreras, than all of the sudden we start winning the match ups more often than not.

[Marty34]

If the choice is Tanaka at $20M per and 6-8 years I think you just fold your cards and go home. The odds of that working out are going to be pretty small because the deal is going to likely be at its greatest value in the early going (when the Sox are still building) and at its least value near the end, when the Sox should be in their contention window.

 

There is also a potentially catastrophic consequence to be seen should the Sox go all in for Tanaka, get him, and then decide to "rush" this rebuilding thing. While keeping the losing to a minimum is preferable, you should never rush through this.

 

The Sox have already chosen to rush this rebuilding by choosing to trade for near-ready prospects. The Tanaka signing 4 years down the road will be the least of this team's worries if Abreau, Garcia, Eaton, et al flop.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The Sox have already chosen to rush this rebuilding by choosing to trade for near-ready prospects. The Tanaka signing 4 years down the road will be the least of this team's worries if Abreau, Garcia, Eaton, et al flop.

This is absolutely true.

 

However, of your list, Abreu is the only one whose contract could end up a burden, thus hampering us beyond his own lack of production, and even that only happens if he's a total bust.

 

I think the Sox would sign Tanaka for 7 years at $11M per without skipping a beat. But he's not going to accept that figure.

 

Tanaka is a riskier move than those Hahn has already made and it impacts us in ways those other moves do not. OTOH, maybe Tanaka is a $25-30M per pitcher for 7 years at an average salary that pays him something like $20M per. Tanaka would be a terrific bargain in that event; but what is the likelihood of that happening?

 

I posted other massive contracts in this thread to consider. They usually don't come out smelling like roses. In our case, if we were a contender, a WS title during the 2014-17 seasons would mitigate a lot of that risk, and those benefits would make the potentiality of a bad deal seem less frightening, however we are not on that kind of ground and we are not able to play that kind of game.

[Marty34]

This is absolutely true.

 

However, of your list, Abreu is the only one whose contract could end up a burden, thus hampering us beyond his own lack of production, and even that only happens if he's a total bust.

 

I think the Sox would sign Tanaka for 7 years at $11M per without skipping a beat. But he's not going to accept that figure.

 

Tanaka is a riskier move than those Hahn has already made and it impacts us in ways those other moves do not. OTOH, maybe Tanaka is a $25-30M per pitcher for 7 years at an average salary that pays him something like $20M per. Tanaka would be a terrific bargain in that event; but what is the likelihood of that happening?

 

I posted other massive contracts in this thread to consider. They usually don't come out smelling like roses. In our case, if we were a contender, a WS title during the 2014-17 seasons would mitigate a lot of that risk, and those benefits would make the potentiality of a bad deal seem less frightening, however we are not on that kind of ground and we are not able to play that kind of game.

 

The fastest path to the Sox contending is to leverage Sale's contract to put together a dominant starting rotation. Signing Tanaka and drafting Hoffman/Kolek is a plan that could do just that.

[Balta1701]

The fastest path to the Sox contending is to leverage Sale's contract to put together a dominant starting rotation. Signing Tanaka and drafting Hoffman/Kolek is a plan that could do just that.

that's a plan to compete in 2017. Why are we signing Tanaka in that case?

[Marty34]

that's a plan to compete in 2017. Why are we signing Tanaka in that case?

 

I don't understand.

[103 mph screwball]

Wouldn't there be other benefits to Tanaka? Would increased exposure to the Japanese market result it jersey sales and things like that? I know Ichiro was big for Seattle. I know Tanaka is not the superstar Ichiro was but would some of his salary be offset by make the Sox a bigger deal in Japan?

[Quin]

The fastest path to the Sox contending is to leverage Sale's contract to put together a dominant starting rotation. Signing Tanaka and drafting Hoffman/Kolek is a plan that could do just that.

 

I agree with this, thought I view Hoffman/Kolek as the eventual Danks replacement or trade bait.

[ptatc]

The Sox have already chosen to rush this rebuilding by choosing to trade for near-ready prospects. The Tanaka signing 4 years down the road will be the least of this team's worries if Abreau, Garcia, Eaton, et al flop.

I disagree. The Sox are trading for prospects not MLB level players. We will not have all of these young players coming through early in their careers. You are still looking 2-3 years down the road with all of the young players already acquired.

[Balta1701]

I don't understand.

If you're counting on a guy you're drafting in 2014 to be a major contributor to your next competitive team, you're circling 2017 on the calendar. That's a rush even for most college guys, they don't carry you as rookies and they need some time in the minors.

 

So what's the point of spending the money on Tanaka's first 3 seasons if you're not putting a roster out there which can compete along with him those first few years?

 

May as well wait until the next Japanese phenom comes along. The odds are there'll be another one in the next 3 years, we've had 3 in 8 years now.

[103 mph screwball]

Wouldn't there be other benefits to Tanaka? Would increased exposure to the Japanese market result it jersey sales and things like that? I know Ichiro was big for Seattle. I know Tanaka is not the superstar Ichiro was but would some of his salary be offset by make the Sox a bigger deal in Japan?

I found this.

How Major League Baseball Clubs Have Commercialized Their Investment in Japanese Stars

 

Mr. Reinsdorf is an outstanding businessman. He knows what he is doing.

[Marty34]

If you're counting on a guy you're drafting in 2014 to be a major contributor to your next competitive team, you're circling 2017 on the calendar. That's a rush even for most college guys, they don't carry you as rookies and they need some time in the minors.

 

So what's the point of spending the money on Tanaka's first 3 seasons if you're not putting a roster out there which can compete along with him those first few years?

May as well wait until the next Japanese phenom comes along. The odds are there'll be another one in the next 3 years, we've had 3 in 8 years now.

 

By keeping Sale the Sox plan better be to compete over the next three years. A Tanaka/Hoffman or Kolek plan is one that that could allow the Sox to deal Danks/Quintana to fill offensive holes.

[Balta1701]

By keeping Sale the Sox plan better be to compete over the next three years. A Tanaka/Hoffman or Kolek plan is one that that could allow the Sox to deal Danks/Quintana to fill offensive holes.

The message I got from their signings and trades so far is that they wanted guys who could break camp with the big league team this year. That might mean they need a year as rookies to adapt, but they absolutely were not looking for guys who were a year or two away.

 

That's the only reason Tanaka could make sense to me. They may not have a roster that can win in 2014 even with him because it's hard to rely on that many rookies, but they picked up guys to fill out a 2015 roster. Tanaka would fit into that.

 

Trading Sale would not.

[Dick Allen]

I found this.

How Major League Baseball Clubs Have Commercialized Their Investment in Japanese Stars

 

Mr. Reinsdorf is an outstanding businessman. He knows what he is doing.

If Rock"s report is correct, I'm sure this is what that budget review was all about. I am pretty sure they knew what they had available up to that point. I am sure they believe Tanaka's salary will be offset in part by what they would make marketing him in Japan.

[witesoxfan]

One last thing too:

 

Let's say the Yankees sign Tanaka. The Sox make the playoffs as a WildCard in 2015. The Yankees play the Sox and start Tanaka in Game 1 vs. Sale. Are we somehow destined to lose that game? If we start Quintana #2 against CC, are we destined to lose that one, too? Or maybe we get another RHSP in that period, starting him in Game 2 and Q in Game 3. Are we destined to lose that serious, or are we destined to have a s***ty rotation or else get out-pitched and beaten in the playoffs just because we don't have Tanaka?

 

Thinking with your brain and not your dick helps at times.

 

What on earth are you talking about here?

[Quin]

What on earth are you talking about here?

 

Translation:

 

If the Yankees sign Tanaka, we still have a better staff in the playoffs.

[103 mph screwball]

If Rock"s report is correct, I'm sure this is what that budget review was all about. I am pretty sure they knew what they had available up to that point. I am sure they believe Tanaka's salary will be offset in part by what they would make marketing him in Japan.

 

If they can get 2 million of endorsments from Japan and consider the exposure for the team worth a million, then paying Tanaka $20 million would be like paying someone like Jake Peavy $17 million. I guess I bring this up because I have seen some comparison between $20 million for Tanaka and $11 mil for Jose Abreu.

 

The Sox can make a big national splash. They can renew season ticket interest. They can stick it to the cubs. They can get a quality pitcher who may turn out to be be an ACE. They don't have to give up a draft pick. They get some Japanese tourists buying tickets. They get some Japanese endorsments.

 

I want it to happen. Crap. Now my hopes are up.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Those Japanese tourists will be honored by the number of empty seats we have left for them

[103 mph screwball]

Those Japanese tourists will be honored by the number of empty seats we have left for them

Yep! Good seats available!

Texas Rangers pitcher Yu Darvish starting to boost Japanese tourism to North Texas

 

"Boston saw a significant increase in Japanese tourism when the Red Sox signed Japanese superstar pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka in late 2006. The Greater Boston Convention & Visitors Bureau estimated the tourism boost at $50 million, about a quarter of that in new spending and the rest from the value of the media coverage. The demand was such that the Red Sox created a Japanese language tour of Fenway Park."

 

Chicago has non stop flights

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2014 by 103 mph screwball

[Lillian]

Tanaka wants to win a World Series. Sign him to a long term, 7 year deal at up to $20 Million per year, and give him an opt out, after 5. If the Sox don't look like they have a chance to win it all, he would probably exercise his option to go elsewhere, and the Sox would be off the hook. If they are competitive enough to have a realistic shot at a championship, they'd be happy to have him in the rotation, and he would likely not leave.

 

The idea of giving a guy an opt out is also attractive because it keeps him motivated. He would be playing for a potential new free agent deal in the 4TH and 5TH years. Isn't that much better than having a player know that he is already getting his money, no matter how he performs? It's just human nature for a person to have less drive and intensity, once he has been guaranteed all the money he is going to get.

 

Of course, there is always the chance that he gets injured, or just never plays up to expectations, but that risk always exist with any player. At least with a guy who is just coming into his prime, the prospects are reasonable.

Players are not going to be playing as long into their late 30's as they were in the steroid era. It's a far safer bet to get guys in their mid 20's.

 

I'm sold. Get him!!!

 

Has anyone posted this link?:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...masahiro-tanaka

Edited January 13, 2014 by Lillian