Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'd honestly rather have our payroll than the Yankees or Dodgers. Having too much cash is how you get the A-Rod's of the world on your team.

The great thing about relying on cheaper players versus marquee free agents signed at market value is that when you make mistakes with cheap players you can make them go away, but when you make mistakes with the free agents you have to keep them around. I imagine if you took an average high payroll team and looked at it in a pie chart format, a good chunk of that yearly salary commitment and a good chunk of those total guaranteed dollars could be devoted to a category called "dead weight." It would be interesting to measure the value of say Beckett + Crawford + Gonzalez + Either + Kemp + League right now in terms of on field value in salary and then compare that amount to their contracts, and then compare that dead weight figure to the asking price of someone like Tanaka.

Edited January 15, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[The Ultimate Champion]

If J. R. was willing to support a team payroll of over $100 million for a couple of years, before the new TV money, why should anyone doubt that he would be willing to go there again?

 

The Sox are factoring in the draft and INTL signing period budgets into payroll. Also, they're not necessarily trying to go cheap, they are instead trying to go young and maximize team control. They would I'm sure gladly payout more of the budget to acquire more of what they are looking for, but the draft and INTL period plus Cuba and Japan signings are the main ways of doing that. The only other options (which I believe the Sox will certainly explore if they don't sign Tanaka) are to either take back salary in exchange for a prospect, take back a long-term player at a higher salary than desired in order to keep the prospects it would cost to acquire that player otherwise, or eat money in a deal where a vet (Dunn please for the love of God) goes out and something underwhelming now but still potentially valuable going forward comes back.

 

He's not getting any younger, and I'm sure that he sees an opportunity for the Sox to be "Chicago's team", while the Cubs rebuild.

 

I could see this.

 

In a previous thread, I asserted that it was easier to assess the prospects of a pitcher than a hitter, largely because a pitchers velocity, movement and location can be accurately measured, unlike a hitter's ability to hit MLB level pitching, which can only be determined after facing it.

Tanaka's stuff has been measured, metered and assessed to a sufficient degree to strongly indicate that he will be an "Ace" quality starter.

 

I agree, I think it's a lot easier to know what you're going to get from a pitcher than a hitter. The game is built on pitching and scouting and defensive strategies are an increasing part of the game.

 

If they gave a hitter, who had never faced U. S. professional competition 6 years and $68 Million, it shouldn't be difficult to assume that they would give a similarly untested pitcher, a long term deal at $20 Million per year, with an opt out after 4 or 5 years.

 

I could see this too if they think he's an ace. Especially if they think it opens up new revenue sources.

 

The fact that Abreu has been acquired also increases the likelihood that the Sox are ready to compete, which also makes the gamble on Tanaka a better one than the gamble that had to be made on Abreu. Each additional piece of the rebuilding puzzle increases the prospects of this team to compete. Now that the Sox have added Garcia, Abreu, Eaton and Davidson, the acquisition of a big piece such as Tanaka makes more sense.

 

The Sox aren't ready to compete at all. Someone in that list I'd almost guarantee is going to be a bust. Someone else probably will become a lot less than people think he'll be. Personally I'll bet that Eaton is an on-and-off the DL average CF who we can't rely on, Davidson is probably the bust, Avi is the good one, Abreu is the force. Just my own guesses, which would vary person to person, but not all of these moves are going to work out. And, we'll probably need 2 evaluation years at least on all of these guys before we decide if they are definitely a long term piece or not.

 

Maybe J. R. and the front office are convinced that Tanaka would be the final significant piece to put this quick rebuild on the field ready to compete, and get the fan base excited. Hey, it would excite me. How about you?

I highly doubt that, but I do believe JR could view Tanaka as a benefit to them in many ways, including the team's future.

 

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

27 guests and 1 user are reading this thread. Someone give the press their story because I'm bored too.

[brian310]

Dodgers and Kershaw are closing in on a record breaking deal. Stay tuned.

[Thad Bosley]

So MLBTraderumors is reporting that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are close on finalizing a seven year, $210M deal, which would be an average of a whopping $30M per year. As we've seen, the Tanaka rumors have him also going for seven years at $140M. That would be $50M committed per year for the forseable future to just two players if they extend Kershaw at that reported amount and sign Tanaka. That's simply mind boggling. Are they that financially mighty that they could pull that off without batting an eyelash, and that's not even considering the salaries of the other marquee players they'll inevitably have in tow. If so, that is really something, and not very promising news for other inhabitants of the National League West.

Edited January 15, 2014 by Thad Bosley

[almagest]

Some good stuff on Youtube of Tanaka - this is him sitting at 94-95 in the 9th inning, from the stretch. Also, if you guys have never watched a Japanese baseball game, I would highly recommend it. It's a blast, especially in person.

[lasttriptotulsa]

So MLBTraderumors is reporting that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are close on finalizing a seven year, $210M deal, which would be an average of a whopping $30M per year. As we've seen, the Tanaka rumors have him also going for seven years at $140M. That would be $50M committed per year for the forseable future to just two players if they extend Kershaw at that reported amount and sign Tanaka. That's simply mind boggling. Are they that financially mighty that they could pull that off without batting an eyelash, and that's not even considering the salaries of the other marquee players they'll inevitably have in tow. If so, that is really something, and not very promising news for other inhabitants of the National League West.

 

I just don't see the Dodgers signing Tanaka. Between the Kershaw deal, the desire to extend Ramirez and all the other albatross contracts they have on the books (Ethier, Gonzalez, Beckett, Greinke, Kemp and Crawford) I just don't see where the money is going to come from. Beckett comes off the books after 2014, but the rest of the guys I believe are locked up through at least 2017 at around $103 million just for those 5 players. Add in the Kershaw, Tanaka and Ramirez contracts and you're talking $175 million+ for 8 players. I know the Dodgers are willing to spend, but I just don't see how that's doable for any franchise.

[witesoxfan]

I just don't see the Dodgers signing Tanaka. Between the Kershaw deal, the desire to extend Ramirez and all the other albatross contracts they have on the books (Ethier, Gonzalez, Beckett, Greinke, Kemp and Crawford) I just don't see where the money is going to come from. Beckett comes off the books after 2014, but the rest of the guys I believe are locked up through at least 2017 at around $103 million just for those 5 players. Add in the Kershaw, Tanaka and Ramirez contracts and you're talking $175 million+ for 8 players. I know the Dodgers are willing to spend, but I just don't see how that's doable for any franchise.

 

I actually agree. You need to leave yourself SOME room for flexibility. That team would be looking at the possibility of costing like $250-300 million in short order including luxury taxes.

 

I still think he ends up with the Yankees. Their need is far greater than anybody else's and they can spend to make it happen. Personally, I think they'd be better allocating that money between Garza and Jimenez if they think they want to compete, but really, that team is closer to last place than they are first. I honestly think they'd be better tanking this year and trying to rebuild the team, but a 3 year contract to Beltran and a 5 year contract to McCann, along with all the other money tied up on the roster, prohibits that quite a bit.

[harfman77]

I just don't see the Dodgers signing Tanaka. Between the Kershaw deal, the desire to extend Ramirez and all the other albatross contracts they have on the books (Ethier, Gonzalez, Beckett, Greinke, Kemp and Crawford) I just don't see where the money is going to come from. Beckett comes off the books after 2014, but the rest of the guys I believe are locked up through at least 2017 at around $103 million just for those 5 players. Add in the Kershaw, Tanaka and Ramirez contracts and you're talking $175 million+ for 8 players. I know the Dodgers are willing to spend, but I just don't see how that's doable for any franchise.

 

Agree, at this point it is probably between the Yankees and the Cubs. They are both desperate for starting pitching and have the cash to get him. I think the Yankees have to be the odds on favorite given their market, their need, and financial situation. It was reported that he favored the largest media markets in LA and NY. The Angels and now Dodgers are presumably out, the Mets dont have any money, so that leaves the Yankees.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I actually agree. You need to leave yourself SOME room for flexibility. That team would be looking at the possibility of costing like $250-300 million in short order including luxury taxes.

 

I still think he ends up with the Yankees. Their need is far greater than anybody else's and they can spend to make it happen. Personally, I think they'd be better allocating that money between Garza and Jimenez if they think they want to compete, but really, that team is closer to last place than they are first. I honestly think they'd be better tanking this year and trying to rebuild the team, but a 3 year contract to Beltran and a 5 year contract to McCann, along with all the other money tied up on the roster, prohibits that quite a bit.

 

My money would be on the Yankees also, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some dark horse team came in and swooped him up. I doubt it will be the Sox, but who knows. The new rules regarding the maximum posting fee really opened it up for more teams. If the posting fee was still in the $50 million range like it was for Darvish, you can bet the Sox would not even be considering signing him. The $20 million is doable for almost any club especially since it can be paid out over two years.

[harfman77]

I actually agree. You need to leave yourself SOME room for flexibility. That team would be looking at the possibility of costing like $250-300 million in short order including luxury taxes.

 

I still think he ends up with the Yankees. Their need is far greater than anybody else's and they can spend to make it happen. Personally, I think they'd be better allocating that money between Garza and Jimenez if they think they want to compete, but really, that team is closer to last place than they are first. I honestly think they'd be better tanking this year and trying to rebuild the team, but a 3 year contract to Beltran and a 5 year contract to McCann, along with all the other money tied up on the roster, prohibits that quite a bit.

 

I think the Yankees are in for some dark times ahead. Too much money tied up in players that are not worth what they are paid. They still owe A-Rod ~$94M through 2017, even with him being suspended for this season. Add in Tex, McCann, Ellsbury, and Sabathia they are going to struggle to field competitive teams if they are going to continue and try and stay below the luxury tax.

[witesoxfan]

I think the Yankees are in for some dark times ahead. Too much money tied up in players that are not worth what they are paid. They still owe A-Rod ~$94M through 2017, even with him being suspended for this season. Add in Tex, McCann, Ellsbury, and Sabathia they are going to struggle to field competitive teams if they are going to continue and try and stay below the luxury tax.

 

I knew Beltran wasn't the big outfielder I was thinking of. Not sure why I couldn't remember Ellsbury.

 

They just don't have a lot coming up for infielders, and their current options are really poor. They have a lot of decent outfielders, but Beltran has to start declining eventually and the end of the Ellsbury deal could be ugly, plus McCann is going to have to move off catcher soon too.

 

They are finding out very quickly that you can't simply just sign free agents to build your team. They need an infusion of talent very quickly from the minors.

[Balta1701]

I think the Yankees are in for some dark times ahead. Too much money tied up in players that are not worth what they are paid. They still owe A-Rod ~$94M through 2017, even with him being suspended for this season. Add in Tex, McCann, Ellsbury, and Sabathia they are going to struggle to field competitive teams if they are going to continue and try and stay below the luxury tax.

I don't think they have any intention of trying to "continue to stay below the luxury tax". They're getting out of it this year to avoid the multi-year penalty and they'll be right back over it next year.

[Quin]

I have Yanks as favorites followed by the Sox.

[TheTruth05]

1.Yanks-Pitching desperation for Yanks,history

2.Mariners-location

3.Sox-future and exciting plan

4.Cubs-would have to blow away tanaka in cash.

[lasttriptotulsa]

1.Yanks-Pitching desperation for Yanks,history

2.Mariners-location

3.Sox-future and exciting plan

4.Cubs-would have to blow away tanaka in cash.

 

I really think a lot of that you can throw out the window. Tanaka is probably going to go wherever the most money is.

[witesoxfan]

I really think a lot of that you can throw out the window. Tanaka is probably going to go wherever the most money is.

 

I agree. I also think that working out some sort of deal where he only gets 4 years so he can make more and sign another contract is out of the question, so long as Casey Close is smart. You have no idea how effective he is going to be, nor any idea of how long he will pitch while being effective. If the Sox offer 4/$80 and the Yankees offer 6/$120, you take that extra $40 million and run.

[royoung]

As a Sox fan, I am conflicted on if the Yankees or Cubs signing Tanaka would disguise me the most. If not the Sox, I hope Arizona gets him.

[hi8is]

As a Sox fan, I am conflicted on if the Yankees or Cubs signing Tanaka would disguise me the most. If not the Sox, I hope Arizona gets him.

I'm just happy we only have 9 more days of this poop... at most!

 

Really thou, if it's not the white sox - I'm hoping he goes to LA. The dodgers would sure be a fun team to watch with Kershaw and tanaka both locked up.

Edited January 15, 2014 by hi8is

[Quin]

Here's my 5 finalists:

 

Yankees - Money, NY media, the history of the franchise.

White Sox - Future, chance to pair with Sale, less pressure

Dodgers - Money, Kershaw, contending

Cubs - Money

DBacks - Silent in all this, but money.

 

With the Dodgers wrapping up Kershaw and the Yankees being bogged down with contracts, I can actually see the White Sox pulling this off. They're the only confirmed team to have met with him face-to-face and according to Rock, it seems their budget caps at $20M/year. I can't see the Dodgers or Yankees going above that.

[cabiness42]

What soxtalk record for posts in a thread about a free agent before he actually signs?

[Quin]

What soxtalk record for posts in a thread about a free agent before he actually signs?

 

JDA hit 56 pages before signing.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...9778&st=825

 

We're coming up on page 56.

 

It's a sign.

[ranger2004]

I'd love to see Tanaka with the White Sox, but his wife is an actress and wants to be where she can pursue her acting career... seems like LA or New York would be the place to be for that.

[justBLAZE]

Score reporting Sox backing off Tanaka - price too high. That's what my friend just texted me.

[Harry Chappas]

As a Sox fan, I am conflicted on if the Yankees or Cubs signing Tanaka would disguise me the most. If not the Sox, I hope Arizona gets him.

 

I say Dodgers, anything to make the cub rebuild from getting a trophy all that much harder.