Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[witesoxfan]

If the Sox sign Tanaka, I have no problem calling them contenders for the AL Central. I have no problem if they don't, but they'd be in a position with their rotation and bullpen to have the very best pitching staff in the AL. If the offense can score even 650 runs, they'd have a chance to win 88-90 games, and they can always upgrade that or get a little lucky and end up scoring 700+ and winning 95 or so.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

I don't understand how anyone could come to a conclusion this guy is at best a #3. He walks no one. He gives up very few homers. His strikeout rate has declined, but is still good. His ERA the last 3 years is 1.27,1.87,1.27. 25 years old. There is nothing to suggest he is anything but an ace.

[TheTruth05]

No reason?

 

When's the last time the Sox spent an average of around $20M+ per season on anyone?

 

When's the last time the Sox went 5+ years on a free agent pitcher, in fact, when is the last time they've gone 7 years?

 

Every single offseason there are #3 quality starters with the stuff to dominate a game on the market, and usually there are guys you can sign for 4 years or less. Also there are always types with a bit more upside looking to rebuild value, ala Josh Johnson this year.

 

Further, we have an organization that specializes in picking pitching out of other organizations/off the scrap heap and turning it into something worthwhile.

 

Lastly, the strength of or organization is pitching, the weakness is everything else.

 

There are plenty of reasons not to piss away a huge chunk of payroll space and potentially several seasons of offseason flexibility on a guy who has never pitched in MLB & who probably isn't even an ace anyway.

 

Should the Sox offer a $20M bid plus a 6 year, $75M salary? Maybe, that's a lot and still pretty risky. But that's not going to get it done. The Sox would be forced to bid against angry, aggressive stupidity to "win" by assuming what is probably going to be the biggest on-paper financial risk of the offseason. No thanks.

 

This.... Sox are trying to go young AND cheap to save up for when this team is ready and add the final pieces through FA. I doubt in a couple years we'll be a #3 projected $140-50 mil SP away from a WS title, no reason for them to bind themselves right now.

[The Ultimate Champion]

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/bat_c.html

 

Your top-5 best hitters in the central league last year:

1) Tony Blanco

2) Wladimir Balentien

3) Some Japanese guy

4) Matt Murton

5) Jose Lopez

 

Haven't some of our prospects pitched in Japan recently? Anthony Carter maybe? Carlos Torres or Heath Phillips maybe? I know there have been a couple. I bet they look awesome too.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Actually Randy Messenger & Jason Standridge (remember him?) were your #3 & #4 pitchers in the Central League

 

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/pit_c.html

[The Ultimate Champion]

I changed my mind. I thought about, I think Hahn should go crazy bidding for this guy. One of the best & most entertaining aspects of White Sox baseball is DJ telling his stories about playing in Japan & Japanese culture as a whole. I don't care if he has an ERA of 5, as long as he makes 30+ starts then that's 30+ days where I get to hear DJ in his absolute element. Given that I love DJ, I'm going to go ahead and back this thing. Shoot yourself in the foot for me, Rick.

[witesoxfan]

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/bat_c.html

 

Your top-5 best hitters in the central league last year:

1) Tony Blanco

2) Wladimir Balentien

3) Some Japanese guy

4) Matt Murton

5) Jose Lopez

 

Haven't some of our prospects pitched in Japan recently? Anthony Carter maybe? Carlos Torres or Heath Phillips maybe? I know there have been a couple. I bet they look awesome too.

 

Carlos Torres had an ERA of 3.44 last year with the Mets. His ERA in 6 starts with the Yomiuri Giants was 6.26.

 

That's a poor argument anyways. The Sox may as well have let someone else sign Jose Abreu too because I'm sure the best pitchers in Cuba were pretty terrible last year too.

 

Actually Randy Messenger & Jason Standridge (remember him?) were your #3 & #4 pitchers in the Central League

 

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/pit_c.html

 

There was talk of MLB teams potentially willing to offer Randy Messenger $8-10 million this upcoming offseason, but he ultimately stayed in Japan. Colby Lewis came back and was pretty good too.

 

---

 

If the White Sox believe that he is a pitcher who is capable of performing at an ace level, then there is no reason they should not be involved. If they don't, then they should remain out of the bidding. I don't understand how or why you are arguing with that.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The Sox were desperate when they were bidding for Abreu, and they still got him at an average annual value of a shade over $11M per for 6 seasons. Compared (probably ambitiously) to Miguel Cabrera. If they could get Tanaka for anything even remotely close to it then go for it.

 

You can't.

 

That's the point.

 

You have to draw a line somewhere.

[Dick Allen]

The Sox were desperate when they were bidding for Abreu, and they still got him at an average annual value of a shade over $11M per for 6 seasons. Compared (probably ambitiously) to Miguel Cabrera. If they could get Tanaka for anything even remotely close to it then go for it.

 

You can't.

 

That's the point.

 

You have to draw a line somewhere.

Considering Scott Kazmir gets $11 million a year on the open market, I think you need to adjust what you think is a lot and not a lot of money now. Things have changed. MLB teams, including the White Sox, are flush with cash. There is zero reason for any of us on a message board trying to be responsible with JR's money. It's available if he wants to spend it.

 

This is a unique opportunity. You don't sit around and say, well maybe in 2 or 3 years we will bid on someone. That opportunity may not come. You take advantage of opportunities when they occur. Passing and waiting on the next one or maybe the one after that, usually leaves you with nothing. Maybe the Sox scouts aren't all that high on Tanaka. If that is the case, that is the ONLY reason they should not be involved in trying to acquire him for nothing but cash.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

The Sox were desperate when they were bidding for Abreu, and they still got him at an average annual value of a shade over $11M per for 6 seasons. Compared (probably ambitiously) to Miguel Cabrera. If they could get Tanaka for anything even remotely close to it then go for it.

 

You can't.

 

That's the point.

 

You have to draw a line somewhere.

 

There is also far greater risk and far less certainty when it comes to Cuban players too. Their track record is no where near as good, and highlights and scouting reports from Cubans are far more scarce. It's just as likely that a hitter of Abreu's apparent quality came over from Japan, he'd get $20 mill per year.

 

Again, if their reports indicate that the guy is going to be an ace, then they should be involved in the process.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Considering Scott Kazmir gets $11 million a year on the open market, I think you need to adjust what you think is a lot and not a lot of money now. Things have changed. MLB teams, including the White Sox, are flush with cash. There is zero reason for any of us on a message board trying to be responsible with JR's money. It's available if he wants to spend it.

 

This is a unique opportunity. You don't sit around and say, well maybe in 2 or 3 years we will bid on someone. That opportunity may not come. You take advantage of opportunities when they occur. Passing and waiting on the next one or maybe the one after that, usually leaves you with nothing. Maybe the Sox scouts aren't all that high on Tanaka. If that is the case, that is the ONLY reason they should not be involved in trying to acquire him for nothing but cash.

Kazmir got something like $22M guaranteed, Vargas IIRC $32M guaranteed, etc. Meanwhile the Sox will be paying Erik Johnson the league minimum next year & even as a rookie I like how he stacks up in comparison. They'll be paying Quintana well under a million even if they give him a good raise, they'll be paying Sale $3.5M and Paulino $1.5M, and their big albatross is Danks, who if healthy again will look like a solid bargain at $14.25M per for 3 seasons. I'd say we should continue following our own model and f*** everyone else.

[The Ultimate Champion]

There is also far greater risk and far less certainty when it comes to Cuban players too. Their track record is no where near as good, and highlights and scouting reports from Cubans are far more scarce. It's just as likely that a hitter of Abreu's apparent quality came over from Japan, he'd get $20 mill per year.

 

Again, if their reports indicate that the guy is going to be an ace, then they should be involved in the process.

You guys are bringing NPB stats into this thing, not me. I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it is to post them as some sort of indicator for success. Just like with the Cuban players, you go by talent & scouting. The Cubans seem to be far, far superior natural athletes anyway. In general. And they grow up with competition, just like in Japan. And while much of the league over there is junk, same thing in Japan, but the stars in Cuba are better, period. Tougher league, better players in general, better athletes. Give me Cubans over Japanese guys 7 days per week. But that's still not my argument, nor does it have anything to do with my argument. My argument is that it's foolish to chase Tanaka at what his cost is purported to be. Posting NPB stats does nothing to change that, nor does the posting of absurd contracts given out by other teams. We don't do that stuff. Abreu was the craziest thing we've ever done with an unproven player and there have been no signs from this organization anywhere that we'll not only continue that behavior, but go even wilder. No pun intended.

[Kyyle23]

http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2013/stats/bat_c.html

 

Your top-5 best hitters in the central league last year:

1) Tony Blanco

2) Wladimir Balentien

3) Some Japanese guy

4) Matt Murton

5) Jose Lopez

 

Haven't some of our prospects pitched in Japan recently? Anthony Carter maybe? Carlos Torres or Heath Phillips maybe? I know there have been a couple. I bet they look awesome too.

 

 

I cant wait til Some Japanese Guy gets posted. He will be worth minimum 100 million

[Dick Allen]

Kazmir got something like $22M guaranteed, Vargas IIRC $32M guaranteed, etc. Meanwhile the Sox will be paying Erik Johnson the league minimum next year & even as a rookie I like how he stacks up in comparison. They'll be paying Quintana well under a million even if they give him a good raise, they'll be paying Sale $3.5M and Paulino $1.5M, and their big albatross is Danks, who if healthy again will look like a solid bargain at $14.25M per for 3 seasons. I'd say we should continue following our own model and f*** everyone else.

And that model hasn't won consistently, in like, forever. I don't know what you have against top of the line players being added to the roster, maybe you like lost seasons, but if Tanaka is anywhere near as good as advertised, his signing would set this team up for year in, year out winning for years to come.

[Dick Allen]

You guys are bringing NPB stats into this thing, not me. I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it is to post them as some sort of indicator for success. Just like with the Cuban players, you go by talent & scouting. The Cubans seem to be far, far superior natural athletes anyway. In general. And they grow up with competition, just like in Japan. And while much of the league over there is junk, same thing in Japan, but the stars in Cuba are better, period. Tougher league, better players in general, better athletes. Give me Cubans over Japanese guys 7 days per week. But that's still not my argument, nor does it have anything to do with my argument. My argument is that it's foolish to chase Tanaka at what his cost is purported to be. Posting NPB stats does nothing to change that, nor does the posting of absurd contracts given out by other teams. We don't do that stuff. Abreu was the craziest thing we've ever done with an unproven player and there have been no signs from this organization anywhere that we'll not only continue that behavior, but go even wilder. No pun intended.

Would you rather have Darvish or Contreras? Kurodo or El Duque? Pitching-wise, the Japanese have been better IMO, and I was the biggest Contreras fan there was.

[witesoxfan]

You guys are bringing NPB stats into this thing, not me. I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it is to post them as some sort of indicator for success. Just like with the Cuban players, you go by talent & scouting. The Cubans seem to be far, far superior natural athletes anyway. In general. And they grow up with competition, just like in Japan. And while much of the league over there is junk, same thing in Japan, but the stars in Cuba are better, period. Tougher league, better players in general, better athletes. Give me Cubans over Japanese guys 7 days per week. But that's still not my argument, nor does it have anything to do with my argument. My argument is that it's foolish to chase Tanaka at what his cost is purported to be. Posting NPB stats does nothing to change that, nor does the posting of absurd contracts given out by other teams. We don't do that stuff. Abreu was the craziest thing we've ever done with an unproven player and there have been no signs from this organization anywhere that we'll not only continue that behavior, but go even wilder. No pun intended.

 

If he is a guy that is going to be a 2.50 ERA, 220 IP pitcher, he is a bargain at $20 mill per year. Guys like that get $175-200 million on the open market.

 

I also don't see how anything Dick and I have said indicates otherwise. On multiple occasions, we've both said that if the Sox brass thinks highly of Tanaka, then they should be involved. If not, then they should remain out.

Edited December 26, 2013 by witesoxfan

[southsider2k5]

If he is a guy that is going to be a 2.50 ERA, 220 IP pitcher, he is a bargain at $20 mill per year. Guys like that get $175-200 million on the open market.

 

I also don't see how anything Dick and I have said indicates otherwise. On multiple occasions, we've both said that if the Sox brass thinks highly of Tanaka, then they should be involved. If not, then they should remain out.

 

They can bid all they want, they just aren't going to outbid the rest of baseball.

[witesoxfan]

They can bid all they want, they just aren't going to outbid the rest of baseball.

 

I believe you will be right, but if the scouting report checks out, they should be involved anyways.

[Dick Allen]

They can bid all they want, they just aren't going to outbid the rest of baseball.

More than most likely, but that shouldn't be the reason not to bid.

[southsider2k5]

I believe you will be right, but if the scouting report checks out, they should be involved anyways.

 

I'm sure they will bid something. They just have no shot at competing with NYY, LAD, etc. I'm honestly not sure if it is even worth the time wasted when they could be working on other things that are more realistic, such as a catcher. Remember, the talks for the Davidson trade were rooting in the former trade with the Dbacks weeks ago. Making a deal isn't a simple proposition like it is on OOTP.

[Kyyle23]

I'm sure they will bid something. They just have no shot at competing with NYY, LAD, etc. I'm honestly not sure if it is even worth the time wasted when they could be working on other things that are more realistic, such as a catcher. Remember, the talks for the Davidson trade were rooting in the former trade with the Dbacks weeks ago. Making a deal isn't a simple proposition like it is on OOTP.

 

SS2K5 doesnt think the Sox front office can walk and chew gum at the same time

[The Ultimate Champion]

Would you rather have Darvish or Contreras? Kurodo or El Duque? Pitching-wise, the Japanese have been better IMO, and I was the biggest Contreras fan there was.

Irabu and Dasiuke were huge costs that never worked out, Darvish is the only one that I think is really all that special. Nomo had a nice long career. Outside of Darvish I'd take Count over all of them, and El Duque was a masterful pitcher, one of the mose entertaining guys I've ever watched pitch. His cousin Livan wasn't too shabby either. And let's not discount all the position players either, nor arms like Chapmann. Cuba beats the dogs*** out of Japan from an athletic standpoint IMO, and some of their pitchers have been pretty good.

 

I'm not against signing Tanaka for a reasonable rate. We're not getting one. Don't see the point in giving a guy 7 years guaranteed and huge money per who has never pitched in MLB, doesn't have Darvish's stuff apparently, and probably isn't going to do much for us in the first year or 2 given where we stand as a non-contender.

 

I would definitely take the bet that the Sox can come up with a similar caliber pitcher through other means at an excellent price over the time they'd have to pay Tanaka. I really see absolutely no logic in trying to outbid anyone for this guy. It's a terrible move & one we'd regret. Outside (of course) from the fact that Darrin Jackson would be ALL OVER this & would entertain the s*** out of me during every one of his broadcasts which Tanaka would start.

Edited December 26, 2013 by The Ultimate Champion

[southsider2k5]

SS2K5 doesnt think the Sox front office can walk and chew gum at the same time

 

Realistically, what are the chances Tanaka signs here?

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm sure they will bid something. They just have no shot at competing with NYY, LAD, etc. I'm honestly not sure if it is even worth the time wasted when they could be working on other things that are more realistic, such as a catcher. Remember, the talks for the Davidson trade were rooting in the former trade with the Dbacks weeks ago. Making a deal isn't a simple proposition like it is on OOTP.

There are big arms all around the league the Sox could take a shot on without giving up a key player, either making a deal around a lesser veteran like DeAza, a reliever, or a prospect. None of this costs huge payroll room.

 

I agree with the poster who said we should wait until we are contenders to add big FA contracts, especially on the pitching side.

 

Just think, what happens if Danks comes back to full health, and both Johnson and Beck/other RHSP turn into above-average MLB SP? By the time we're a real contender again, we could be 6 deep and dealing with a beautiful excess of SP for all we know. Let's spend our money elsewhere & not be stupid. I mean, if we were going to hand out that kind of money, why didn't we get in on Ellsbury or Cano? Why did we stay away from McCann? Hahn isn't spending Tanaka money anywhere, especially not on a pitcher. And it's unlikely to me that Jerry Reinsdorf would ever want to go along with that anyway, nor would I see Kenny Williams on board with that, and given all the options in his deals, I see no reason why we should expect Hahn to even ask any of those guys what they thought about a Tanaka type of deal. I bet Hahn has spent more time thinking about what he plans to offer DeAza in arb than why he'd offer Tanaka. No reason to even think about it at these rumored figures.

[hogan873]

Realistically, what are the chances Tanaka signs here?

Slim to none. I just don't see the Sox being anywhere close to what he's going to get.