LittleHurt05 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) Like they are content with Arod's contract? It did win them a World Series, they wouldn't give that up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thxfrthmmrs Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) [/b] Said no one, ever. I was more so referring to this post. QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 08:01 AM) Argubaly the only real "contenders" out of the supposed "finalists" are the Dodgers. Every other team has major question marks even with the addition of Tanaka. That's why it's important to look at the future. Other than the Dodgers, I would put both the Chicago teams above the Yankees. They have a lot of age on that roster, and a lot of players coming back from injury. I think there is much more to his decision then the three factors you mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) Flight time to Tokyo from LA 10 hours, from Chicago 11.5 hours, from NYC 13 hours. Really not much different especially if you are in first class with a bed. This STILL blows my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:00 AM) An extra year and 35 million isn't too much different? I'll quote you on that if we signed Garza or Jimenez to a year one 35 million dollar contract. Please do. Add the posting fee. 6 years 120 million plus the 20 million posting fee= 6 years 140 million=$23.3 million a year 7 years 155 million pluse the 20 million posting fee=7 years 175 million=$25 million a year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) The general sentiment is the Dodgers and Yankees can over a lot more than we can. My guess was he signs for 7/$147, and Sox offered 7/$119. But bigger unknown was how much Tanaka would value the money over other factors. For those who felt Tanaka would leave $30 mil on the table, they fooled themselves. Hahn was wright, if it hasn't come down to $$, we had as much a chance as anyone, but the sad reality was it most likely came down to money, but a lot of people here refused to see that. What fans were holding out hope for was that the luxury tax would impact how the Dodgers and Yankees do business. It obviously does not. What this shows is that the posting cost Tanaka's Japanese team $30M that ended up in Tanaka's pocket anyway and wasted a lot of other peoples time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) The general sentiment is the Dodgers and Yankees can over a lot more than we can. My guess was he signs for 7/$147, and Sox offered 7/$119. But bigger unknown was how much Tanaka would value the money over other factors. For those who felt Tanaka would leave $30 mil on the table, they fooled themselves. Hahn was wright, if it hasn't come down to $$, we had as much a chance as anyone, but the sad reality was it most likely came down to money, but a lot of people here refused to see that. I think the Sox were close on annual but wouldnt add that 7th year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) So Tanaka needs to be a 5+ WAR pitcher for 7 years for the Yankees to get their moneys worth. I don't like the odds of that happening. This isn't exactly true. Teams are paying closer to $6 mill per WAR now, and that price is likely to go up over the duration of the contract. Depending on the breakdowns, it's likely that he'll have to end up being closer to a 4 WAR pitcher to "earn" this contract, but really, you sign this contract because you believe this guy is an ace and he can deliver 6 WAR production for the first couple years of the deal. 6 WAR 6 WAR 6 WAR 5.5 WAR 5 WAR 4.5 WAR 4 WAR = 37 WAR over the duration of the contract People are also assuming he has peaked. He's 25 years old. It's very possible that he HASN'T peaked yet and that the breakdown could be 5 WAR 5.5 WAR 6 WAR 6.5 WAR 6 WAR 5.5 WAR 5 WAR = 39.5 WAR It's not a terrible contract, but it's an incredibly risk contract because if he is anything less than Dan Haren in his prime. FYI, Haren over the same age time period put up a 32.6 WAR with the last year being worth 1.8 WAR. There is absolutely precedent for pitchers with this repertoire falling off a steep cliff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melissa1334 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) Pish. I'm always taking the hitter. Me too. Well maybe itll end up being like when we offered fukudome more money and he went to the cubs and it went horribly lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) Maybe not content but it has not affected how they run the organization. Tanaka is not a Yankee if Arods contract is still on the books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royoung Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I remember reading from a reputable source that one team went for a shorter contract with a higher pay per year, which could of explained the "nearly" caveat on the 5 offers over 100 million. I wonder if Hahn tried to be creative on the years and payout rather than the length of the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What this shows is how much of a bargain Sale's contract is. The Sox need to take advantage of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxnGiants Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I believe that`s the 5th largest pitcher contract in league history. While Abreu`s deal looks like a bargain compared to what Tanaka got, how about Darvish. Generally thought to be the superior pitcher, he got (I believe) 6/60. Less than half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) I remember reading from a reputable source that one team went for a shorter contract with a higher pay per year, which could of explained the "nearly" caveat on the 5 offers over 100 million. I wonder if Hahn tried to be creative on the years and payout rather than the length of the contract. I highly doubt this. I am guessing the Sox offered a very similar contract to the Yankees. Tanaka would always have been able to opt out after 4 years, so the shorter contract never stood a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (SoxnGiants @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:12 AM) I believe that`s the 5th largest pitcher contract in league history. While Abreu`s deal looks like a bargain compared to what Tanaka got, how about Darvish. Generally thought to be the superior pitcher, he got (I believe) 6/60. Less than half. With the Rangers also paying a $51.7 mill posting fee, so in all, the Rangers commitment was for $111.7 million. That was also with them negotiating alone while Tanaka had multiple suitors. You can tell which is better for the player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melissa1334 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:12 AM) What this shows is how much of a bargain Sale's contract is. The Sox need to take advantage of this. I wonder if sale will eventually ask for it to be restructured with these contracts getting larger and larger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) This isn't exactly true. Teams are paying closer to $6 mill per WAR now, and that price is likely to go up over the duration of the contract. Depending on the breakdowns, it's likely that he'll have to end up being closer to a 4 WAR pitcher to "earn" this contract, but really, you sign this contract because you believe this guy is an ace and he can deliver 6 WAR production for the first couple years of the deal. 6 WAR 6 WAR 6 WAR 5.5 WAR 5 WAR 4.5 WAR 4 WAR = 37 WAR over the duration of the contract People are also assuming he has peaked. He's 25 years old. It's very possible that he HASN'T peaked yet and that the breakdown could be 5 WAR 5.5 WAR 6 WAR 6.5 WAR 6 WAR 5.5 WAR 5 WAR = 39.5 WAR It's not a terrible contract, but it's an incredibly risk contract because if he is anything less than Dan Haren in his prime. FYI, Haren over the same age time period put up a 32.6 WAR with the last year being worth 1.8 WAR. There is absolutely precedent for pitchers with this repertoire falling off a steep cliff. Tanaka is supposedly a step below Darvish. Darvish put up a 5 WAR season last year. The two Cy Young winners were 6.5 and 6.4 WAR pitchers. You really believe that Tanaka is going to be significantly better than Darvish in his first year in MLB and pitch at basically a Cy Young level? I really doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 10:04 AM) Like they are content with Arod's contract? Until they forfeit their 2009 trophy, I don't think they're all that angry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) Tanaka is supposedly a step below Darvish. Darvish put up a 5 WAR season last year. The two Cy Young winners were 6.5 and 6.4 WAR pitchers. You really believe that Tanaka is going to be significantly better than Darvish in his first year in MLB and pitch at basically a Cy Young level? I really doubt it. I have absolutely no idea. There are a lot of ways for the math to work out. I merely put up a couple different scenarios. Bottom line, he doesn't even need to average 5 WAR a year for this contract to "make sense" (given $/WAR) for the Yankees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) I wonder if sale will eventually ask for it to be restructured with these contracts getting larger and larger JR doesn't do that. Hopefully he won't get upset and think he was taken advantage of, but he could always have said no, I'll play it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 10:14 AM) Tanaka is supposedly a step below Darvish. Darvish put up a 5 WAR season last year. The two Cy Young winners were 6.5 and 6.4 WAR pitchers. You really believe that Tanaka is going to be significantly better than Darvish in his first year in MLB and pitch at basically a Cy Young level? I really doubt it. Tanaka may be a step below Darvish right now but there's an age difference between when the 2 pitchers came over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) I wonder if sale will eventually ask for it to be restructured with these contracts getting larger and larger He can ask all he wants. This isn't the NFL, teams generally don't cave because a player holds out or whatever. MLB contracts are guaranteed and that goes both ways. I do agree though that Sale will probably wish he hadn't signed an extension so early if he stays healthy and keeps pitching like he has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royoung Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) Please do. Add the posting fee. 6 years 120 million plus the 20 million posting fee= 6 years 140 million=$23.3 million a year 7 years 155 million pluse the 20 million posting fee=7 years 175 million=$25 million a year You can spread out 35 million over as many years as you like, but it matters to a team like the Sox and obviously doesn't to the Yankees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) I wonder if sale will eventually ask for it to be restructured with these contracts getting larger and larger I can't recall that ever happening in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:15 AM) I have absolutely no idea. There are a lot of ways for the math to work out. I merely put up a couple different scenarios. Bottom line, he doesn't even need to average 5 WAR a year for this contract to "make sense" (given $/WAR) for the Yankees. And after year 1 and 2 it looked like Dice-K would, and then...... Its a large contract and i am glad the Sox didnt try to outbid this offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 09:16 AM) Tanaka may be a step below Darvish right now but there's an age difference between when the 2 pitchers came over. They both came over at 25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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