2014 ehhhh maybe!

Waygodai · December 17, 2013

With all the usual Southside off-season hand-wringing and insecurity-rooted moaning, only further amplified by Sox management’s prudent new strategy of actually tapering pre-season expectations,

I think I’ll go out on a limb and predict a surprisingly fun, competitive 2014.

Yes, obviously that would have to entail some lucky breaks in terms of health and several Rick Hahn’s bets paying off. But that’s true for most teams, in most seasons. Including 2010 Giants and Rangers. 2011 Cardinals and Rays amazing final 2 weeks. Even 2012 version of Giants w. Melky Cabrera on PED suspension. Or how about noone’s pre-season favorite: 2013 Cleveland Indians, hahaha! Or Oakland pulling out a boatload of wins out of their butt both in 2012 and 2013 when in prior 5+ years the organization looked like it was dying. Ton more examples just from recent history.

The fact that literally just about everything went wrong for the Sox in 2013, only makes me feel more confident.

It’s probably been said b4 that Sox performance over the years has proven somewhat of a statistical schitzo oddity, an enigma, though not without a peculiar pattern. Though admittedly this would be before my time, but let’s look at ancient history, shall we say 15 seasons? White Sox trend w. performance VS. expectations, predictions, projections and pressure, starting with 1999. Anytime the pressure mounted, Sox shrunk. That was even true during the magical 2005 when zero pre-season expectations turned into an excellent 1st half. Then as hype dramatically increased, almost blew a 14 game lead to the Tribe down the stretch, with the same old critics suddenly resurfacing with see, we told you so; WSox are gonna get rolled in the playoffs”…. before stunning the defending champs Red Sox in the 1st round and taking off on an amazing run through October!

1999? No expectations, no payroll, not much hope to compete with the Tribe powerhouse heading into new millennium..

2000 stuns, turns out “kids can play”

2001-2002 high expectations? Both disappoint, injuries galore, sell-off ensues

2003 low expectations return - voila a fun season, playoffs only derailed by lack of 5th starter..

2004 higher expectations, both Frank and Maggs our version of Manny-Big Poppy go down.

2005 no more El Caballo, rotation of misfit washed-up retreads according to “experts”? Haha!

2006 everyone chirping about repeat before 1st pitch is even thrown? Not so fast.

2007 there’s your rebuilding, peeps, how did you like it, ouch!

2008? Again, most experts had them near the bottom. Low pressure, under-radar moves = nice surprise.

2009 again expectations go up accordingly, Ozzie team again responds by shrinking when it matters

2010 expectations moderate again, Peavy lost for the year, tank time, right? Wrong, good season

2011 expectations and payroll arguably never higher. Total choke-job in April-May by Dunn Co.

2012 virtually no hype, rookie manager? Until rookies Sale, Quintana, Peavy ran out of gas in September and injuries to both Konerko and Dunn, was on its way to the playoffs.

2013 expectations up, performance down. Like friggin’ clockwork. 2nd half tank job ensues.

So 2014 is time to be “bullish” once again. Even financially, Sox are in surprisingly good shape, both in terms of the team evaluation and annual expenditures. Look where payroll was in 1999: like tree-fiddy total, bwa-ahaha, and most of it was Frank Thomas who was on DL. The year they hosted the All-Star Game I think in 2003 , Jerry “splurged” to the tune of….uh….50 mill? Even in the triumphant 2005, it was barely 70 mill.

The last 5 years, despite terrible Recession and usual lack of attendance revenue, Reinsdorf has spent the money. 2008 and 2011 were giant payrolls by Sox historical standards.

So even with all the not so veiled organizational talk of rebuilding this and that…….no reason to think if the rejuvenated 2014 Sox are off to a fast start, Sox won’t make a big impact trade. You know they will; just need to avoid the type of Corpseball that plagued the 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013 teams in April-May (2008 Sox were able to overcome the negative momentum, obviously, but not other incarnations)

Baseball is funny game. Which is why we love it, but also it can be frustrating and why betting on it is a fool’s errand. Works both ways. 3 years prior World Series match-ups completely stumped both experts, media and fans (Giants-Tex, Cards-Rays late season charge 2011, Cards winning all being thrice down to 2 strike count Nelson Cruz error, etc…. Giants repeat despite Melky Cabrera suspension).

Again, look at even 2013 Cleveland Indians in our own division. Lost V-Mart, Sabathia, Lee, Choo, Sizemore, prime Hefner, Peralta, ACabrera got hurt, Carmona turned out to be a big fraud; several managerial changes over several seasons. Prior to 2013, whether based purely on statistical analysis or on the ol “eye-test” of a knowledgeable person, would have been so easy to dismiss the Tribe as perpetual bottom-feeders. They proved many people wrong.

Us younger generation fans rightfully get accused of not knowing how to truly enjoy the fun of competition, the meritocracy of pro sports, esp when it comes to the intricate, weirdly-structured, elegant “pastoral” game like baseball. Sox fans are known for emotional fragility, looking for reasons to be unhappy and avoid spending money. Ok I get all that, whatever to each their own and all that.

Real quick, some of the reasons I think 2014 is far from hopeless:

Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Eaton, Davidson betting to have All-Star potential.

“Fatties” Dunn and Viciedo have all the incentive to be in shape for FA, plus new hitting coach (lest we forget an in-shape 2012 Dunn before his late August oblique tear that tanked his stats, Dunn was in pace to hit 50 HR).

Yes, Viciedo’s mechanics are poor and plate discipline even poorer, wasn’t all that healthy and a little too fat ---- but there is something to be said for in spite of all that hitting 25 HR at, what, age 22?! Another year to get acclimated to LF position; it’s perfectly reasonable to expect more from the Tank in a free-agent year out of that guy or have him platoon with De Aza worse case..

-Beckham healthy, no more of that dreadful Greg Walkerian 3-year Hitch in his swing; but of course 2 separate injuries derailed him just as he got into a nice groove. Remains to be seen how he matches with the new hitting coach bringing different OBP oriented hitting philosophy. Coming off his worst defensive year, you know Gordo is much better than that. So I’m fine with giving Becks one last, extended look in 2014. Maybe start him off in the 8 hole with lowered expectations, then put up into 2-spot if he’s off to a fast start ala 2013 With Eaton on base, Garcia, Abreu, Dunn line-up protecting, 2 hole hitter wouldn’t have to do much more than punch a lot of balls into RF through through the pulled up infield. With Gordon confidence is such a key thing.

Konerko all-star as recently as 2010, 2011, 2012 (if his back is OK, good platoon mate at worst). If not for that wrist that robbed him of parts of prime years in 07, 08, 09, second half 2012… we’d be talking possible Hall of Fame candidate here. Totally fine with his new role for the huge paycut he took.

Like Colon, Contreras, Peavy b4,,,,,,,,, John Danks was foolishly allowed to rush back his rehab throwing off the mound in Feb just 5 months post-surgery. Hopefully now closer to 2 years removed from surgery, the dude regains the fastball velocity and arm-speed on his patented change-up, just like Jake Peavy needed 2 years for dramatic improvement in 2012 following his operation.

Paulino had Tommy Johns, luckily possible to come back throwing harder than before nowdays

need Alexei of 2008 not 2013, the guy is an enigma, you know the talent is there, frustrating

Davidson obviously changes things, still Gillespie deserves a full year: good batspeed, deceptive power and surprisingly capable leather, usual rookie learning curve notwithstanding.

Tyler Flowers too was apparently playing though shoulder injury, but with him it’s a longer road back to viability as ML starter because unlike other bounce-back candidates like Eaton, Alexei, Gillespie, to a lesser extent Beckham…..Flowers has never proven he has the needed combination of pitch-recognition, hand-eye coordination and batspeed to consistently hit good ML pitching. Good news is that you can hide Flowers in the 9 hole, platoon him, find him an effective platoon-mate, have him hit 15-20 bombs and take some walks simply by the abundance virtue of bad and mediocre pitching in the bigs. So not that big a deal, but all the same I’d rather Hahn try to get a defensive stud at catcher through a trade since the catcher position is by far the most important defensive position. And Flowers is almost as bad as AJ was at it, without AJ’s off-setting stick.

Then again, Flowers if free to prove me wrong, it would be great for the organization if he does.

Everyone wants Sox to be more like Billy Beane’s moneyball A’s that pulled crapload of wins off seemingly out of their asses in 2012-2013? Well, Rick Hahn and Stevenson are Moneyball kinda guys. Which presumably includes smarter use of platooning with Kong, Elmore. Give them a chance to do their thing, ya know?

Ultimately, though, guys have to improve. It’s that simple. In general. Look at Alshon Jeffry draft pedigree and rookie year vs. where he is now. Or Jimmy Butler. Or Taj Gibson. No way around it. Statistical analysis doesn’t capture that; this is where talent evaluation and scouting and sheer dumb luck, either comea through or it doesn’t.

I’m big believer in team depth, especially when it comes to the starting pitching, esp. for a team that plays in a DH league, at the Cell (where if you occasionally have to trot out Arnie Munoz, Felix Diaz, Neal Cotts, Hernandez, Zach Stewart, et al they’ll get their brains beat in, and that can be the difference between making the playoffs and missing it by 2 or 3 games)

Yes, would have liked to see Sox steal Eaton for someone like Rienzo. But let’s be honest, D-backs aren’t stupid, so Sox had to give up some talent. I liked Hector Santiago not just for his underrated talent, but for what he provided to the team depth. Felt bad that he was jerked around by Sox, though I personally always thought he was one of the rare pitchers who was more suited for rotation than bullpen.

HS may very well have a big year in a pitcher’s league like Clayton Richard and Daniel Hudson initially did, but it’s quite clear that Sox had some major reservations about Santiago: maybe future health issues, maybe his inability to go deeper into games. Perhaps finer ML baseball seams that Santiago lamented, make it improbable that he could ever have sustained success with the screwball in the majors like he did in the minors, or even have the kind of mechanics and finesse to make a change-up his out pitch --- meaning that unless he can go back to topping out at 95-96 on his fastball, he will be exposed by big-league hitters as they face him more.

Hell, maybe they found his distinct “2003-2004 Johan Santana Rule-V surprise” linebacker physique somewhat suspicious, meaning possible hint of PED use: considering the scandals of the last decade, even lacking in evidence, sometimes teams have to figure certain suspicions into trade considerations when a player makes a sudden break-through, see: Lillibridge, Brent 2011 mammoth HR, when in the past the puny Lilli dude could barely get the ball out of the infield. I think part of the Sox FO apparent dislike of Lilli was that they didn’t believe it was all that kosher, even without any proof. Who knows, really.

On the plus side, I hope instead it was more the case of Sox and Cooper being that confident that not only are Sale and Quintana the real deals, which can be safely assumed at this point…. that John Danks, Paulino is healthy,,,, but also that Eric Johnson if not Rienzo are legit ML options going forward. Thus creating a logjam of SP. Thus, in turn, making Santiago expendable.

Bullpen will be just fine. Higher on Jones than on Reed’s upside, wanted Addison sold high last June along with at the time 3.50 ERA Dylan Axelrod, to be honest so won’t miss him that much. Pens are notoriously unpredictable year-to-year anyway, so whatvs

Obviously the top pick of upcoming 2014 draft is crucial for Rick Hahn’s scout team. 2013 1st-rounder Tim Anderson is also going to have to continue to adjust and progress. Sox have to have some breaks in development fall their way, but that’s true for pretty much all teams that don’t have Yankees or Red Sox budgets. The Courtney Hawkins mess hasn’t helped, though he’s still has plenty of time to rebound (as Jarrod Mitchell who was given up for dead apparently has shown in AFL. Holy crap, come to think of it has KW’s horrible 1st round drafting set this franchise back or what, Hahn has an uphill climb to reverse the damage.

2013 team was much more talented than 99 losses indicate. When it pours, it rains. It happens that way, was a .500 team seemingly heading into the cup-cake schedule portion of the season beginning with a 4 game series with the lowly Cubs. Little did they know that Jeff Ahmadinejadia, Edwin Jackson and Dionel freakin Navarro would have something to say about that, lol ouch never did Sox get that kind of whipping from the North Siders before, it’s usually the other way around, we’re the ones who sent them into a June Swoon! Maybe Detroit was still gonna take the division at the end by virtue of their superior talent. But that collapse, the resultant sell-off and corpseball apathy of the 2nd half made it look that Sox are that much far off from contending than they *actually* are IMO. This is where sabermetrics don’t quite do the team justice.

Dan Bernstein is wrong about “basketball hell”, but at least his excuse is that his job is basically trolling the meatballs for ratings by saying stuff like that. And even if such thing existed, when transposed unto the baseball context in general, and our red-headed Chicago stepchild of an organization in particular: Hell would be Sox becoming the Pirates or Royals. With all the 21st century entertainment options now available; with how fickle Sox fanbase has proven itself to be, the organization would never recover from a protracted rebuilding process. No way.

So, no thank you on full rebuild mode; as a fan I’d rather have 2003, 2006, 2010, 2012 type season experience where maybe the team didn’t win it all in the end, but lots of fun was had at the ol’ ballpark in summer time, HR flying, gurls poppin’ wootwoot woohoo! Hell, even in 2004, 2009 and 2011 as bad as things got at one point, Sox were like within 3 freakin’ games of Detroit in early September.

I mean, if one can’t enjoy it, then what’s the point? Only 1 out of 30 teams ends up winning it all in the end, so apriori the odds are poor in any given year. I guess this is why while hating on the Cubs to lose every game to be able to playfully rag on my Cubbie buddies, deep down I never really begrudged their fans’ preoccupation with hotties and beer. Why can’t one have it all, ie. the honourable spirit of competition, gamesmanship, et cetera but also enjoy entertainment and escapism part of it, huh?

Understandably, those who are into gambling or wasting time on fantasy leagues, always crave more “certainty”, or rather the soothing illusion thereof. No, I can’t promise anything concrete like 90 wins or whatever. Can’t guarantee 2005-like uber-awesomeness to occur in 2014. I am not a delusional homer. ‘Sides, it would horribly boring if such things were possible to know in advance, anyway haha. And yes, if Rick Hahn, Don Cooper and co catch some bad luck with injuries and whatnot, the team will not even crack.500, nevermind actually be in position to threaten Detroit in any way. That should go without saying, but again, that’s true for most teams, most seasons.

Obviously off-season dealings are far from over. Hahn may very well pull off another serious trade. Moreover, should know about how healthy, Paulino, et al elbow is, or if Alexei fiiiiinally added a single, solitary fiber of muscle; or if Mr. last chance at big Free-agent payoff Adam Dunn is fat,,,,,,,,, and so on and so forth….. by end of Spring Training. So I’ll look forward to bumping this thread by late March to revise expectations, one way or another.

But surresli, playa,,,,,,,, 2014 has a chance to be a helluva fun ride. Yes, while admittedly the downside is considerable, in my opinion this team has the making of once again tearing the Pythagorean and BP projections to shreds. The addition of the 2nd wild card sure helps.

Cautiously optimistic, yo!

Balta1701 · December 17, 2013

The guys you listed with "All star potential" aren't going to be all stars this year. Gillaspie, you say he deserves another year, but there's no where to play him unless you send Davidson to the minors. He's likely traded or released.

And right now, this team looks like it should be compared to the 1999 white sox if you're looking for a recent memory team to compare it to.

southsider2k5 · December 17, 2013

Brando, is that you?

BigHurt3515 · December 17, 2013

Can I get a one paragraph summary of that book please?

Waygodai · December 17, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 01:15 PM)

The guys you listed with "All star potential" aren't going to be all stars this year. Gillaspie, you say he deserves another year, but there's no where to play him unless you send Davidson to the minors. He's likely traded or released.

And right now, this team looks like it should be compared to the 1999 white sox if you're looking for a recent memory team to compare it to.

Sorry I wasn't more clear: I and the Sox obviously expect them to be be "merely" good. Thus making for a surprisingly competitive, certainly very interesting, season.

(if they're all All-Stars, Sox win 100 games, lol)

Again 1999 was before my time, but looking back that team was literally all rookies + ailing Frank Thomas. Still somehow hung around .500 against powerhouse Indians until running out of gas with Hurt gone for the year. Not entirely apt comparison, imo

I think 2000, 2003 and 2005 are better comps, personally, but yes, your scepticism is entirely valid.

I realize as of this off-season my view is in the minority. No prob.

greg775 · December 17, 2013

I thought that was a good long post. I disagree on Gillaspie being good with the leather, but you did have a caveat saying he was good for a guy getting used to the bigs.

It was a good post in that it did point out reasons some of these guys might bounce back. I didn't realize Viciedo was in a contract year, but if he is, he does have great incentive to get in good shape and improve.

I do hope Nate is a good closer but I also hope the Sox are prepared to yank him out of the role quickly and/or have closer by committee if they have to. Think about how bad a team we'd have been last year, historically bad, if Addison hadn't been a fairly reliable closer. I'd give Addison a solid B or A-minus. Nate drives me crazy with his delivery and though I hope for the best I could see him being horrendous.

Also even though it's been popular to say managers do nothing and don't matter, I personally think Cleveland has a very good manager and we just might have an average one at best. We'll see. Robin had a great first year; horrific second year. Now this year we find out if he's decent or not.

Edited December 17, 2013 by greg775

Texsox · December 17, 2013

Welcome (back) to soxtalk :gosox3:

Balta1701 · December 17, 2013

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:42 PM)

Robin had a great first year; horrific second year. Now this year we find out if he's decent or not.

First 5 months. Horrific final month there too.

Waygodai · December 17, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:11 PM)

First 5 months. Horrific final month there too.

To be entirely fair to Ventura.... IIRC in 2012 rookie starters Sale and Quintana were absolutely gased by inning overload. As was Peavy in his first full rehab year coming back from an injury that could have easily ended his career (the Lat is a freakin' huge muscle, surgery was borderline experimental, i.e. uncharted territory in terms of rehab if nothing else).

Dunn as mentioned had a torn rib-cage muscle and Konerko was visited by the ol' Wrist tooth fairy that essentially robbed both of their HR power.

so when your 4 All-Stars essentially turn into zombies at most critical time, there is only so much you can do managerially. I don't think a combination of Joe Maddon, Tom Thibodeau and Subotai himself could have led to victory under the circumstances. It was fun season all the same.

(full disclosure: as someone who thought Ozzie was a giant fraud both as a manager and human being long before it became fashionable, I am perfectly willing to concede that Robin screwed up his share as a novice manager. So it's not an Team Robin vs. Team Ozzie thing at all. It's just its a bit of a stretch to hang last 2 weeks of 2012 and 2013 on him. Likewise, 2014 will likely come down to Rick Hahn's talent bets and lucky breaks in terms of avoiding major injuries)

Jake · December 17, 2013

Robin had nothing to do with the late collapse in 2012. Starting pitchers had little to do with it. The entire offense shut down in the final two weeks.

Buehrle>Wood · December 18, 2013

I would be very surprised if we avoid 90 losses.

Jose Abreu · December 18, 2013

With Phlowers/no lefty relievers, I say we win 73 games.

With a better catcher/two left relievers this team can win 78/79

ChiSox59 · December 18, 2013

Quite a post. Agreed with most, but a few things just out there. One thing is for certain, the excitement level of sox fans has gone up 10 fold since a mere 5 months ago.

Rowand44 · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 07:46 PM)

Quite a post. Agreed with most, but a few things just out there. One thing is for certain, the excitement level of sox fans has gone up 10 fold since a mere 5 months ago.

At least us on this board. Unfortunately, i don't think what Rick has done does anything for attendance or excitement around the team from the casual fans unless they start winning right away.

caulfield12 · December 18, 2013

Viciedo isn't going into free agency.

Gillaspie's going to have to look like an All-Star and Davidson completely tank in Spring Training for Conor to keep that job....and only for the first 2-3 months of the season, in all likelihood.

I still think the key to this team is going to be up the middle....now that we have Eaton, that's one area addressed. Then you're going to need long-term stability from catcher, 2B and SS, which means they have to decide what to do with Leury Garcia, Semien (obviously 2B or SS now, not 3B), Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson would seem to be ticketed for 2B although he could still end up in CF or LF (similar to Alexei Ramirez when he joined the Sox in 2008, minus the ability to play SS).

And getting the best return for Alexei Ramirez if they do decide to trade him. Last year at this time, he was looking like a salary dump. Now, he's got at least some value...maybe not Carlos Martinez or Wong from the Cardinals, but you can get more back for him that Rios, for example.

Finally, probably not the worst thing to keep Keppinger around and hope for a bounceback, but it's going to be hard to imagine him getting much playing time unless Davidson doesn't make the team out of Spring Training or Beckham gets hurt again.

professa · December 18, 2013

this team will be fun to watch, no doubt. They may not be good in terms of wins and losses, but boy will it be easier to watch games in August and September than it was last year. As much as we bag Hawk, he was right when he said this team will be more exciting in 2014 than in 2013. Still think this is a 70-75 win team with a ceiling of 80 wins.

Waygodai · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:04 PM)

Viciedo isn't going into free agency.

Gillaspie's going to have to look like an All-Star and Davidson completely tank in Spring Training for Conor to keep that job....and only for the first 2-3 months of the season, in all likelihood.

I still think the key to this team is going to be up the middle....now that we have Eaton, that's one area addressed. Then you're going to need long-term stability from catcher, 2B and SS, which means they have to decide what to do with Leury Garcia, Semien (obviously 2B or SS now, not 3B), Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson would seem to be ticketed for 2B although he could still end up in CF or LF (similar to Alexei Ramirez when he joined the Sox in 2008, minus the ability to play SS).

And getting the best return for Alexei Ramirez if they do decide to trade him. Last year at this time, he was looking like a salary dump. Now, he's got at least some value...maybe not Carlos Martinez or Wong from the Cardinals, but you can get more back for him that Rios, for example.

Finally, probably not the worst thing to keep Keppinger around and hope for a bounceback, but it's going to be hard to imagine him getting much playing time unless Davidson doesn't make the team out of Spring Training or Beckham gets hurt again.

My bad on Viciedo; did Sox extend him since or did the ML service clock start in 2010?

Yeah, defense at catcher position is certainly a priority, even though hiding or platooning Flowers in the 9-hole is possible, you can’t hide his D.

As you said Eaton has CF covered, because between Nick Swisher in 2008, Alex Rios, then De Aza, I was ready to gouge my eyes out. The fact that UZR apparently had Swish Nickowiak and Rios in 2010 as all time great defensive season at the position… only discredits UZR, haha no for real, UZR was wrong: Rios could barely handle RF just a few years later, makes no sense.

Didn’t even figure guys like Samien or Micah Johnson let alone Carlos Sanchez into the equation as far as 2014 goes. I mean, it’s one thing to be high on A-list guys like Abreu, Eaton or Garcia. It’s another on B-listers. Odds are heavily stacked against them historically, just cold hard reality. Baseball being so stat-oriented, it’s easy to fall into a trap of projecting minor league production to the bigs. I mean, would one ever use NBA D-league or college football stats when talking about prospects of those respective sports? Of course not: you scout the player, not the stats (to the best of our admittedly limited ability as fans, however informed).

The Keppinger stuff you mention makes sense, but after making excuses for the likes of Beckham and Gillespie, frankly I was all out of them, haha. Losing organizations, and loser fan-bases, always seem to be chockfull of excuses, ya know? Then again, maybe that explained why a LHP-slayer like Kep was so inept the few AB I did see him play. “Personal problems”. Ok, let’s assume that for a moment. Also part of what made Joe Maddon a good manager is proper utilization of utility guys like Keppinger; this is where hopefully Rick Hahn and the new hitting coach can help Robin Ventura, Mark Parent get the best of their bench which IMO they failed to do in 2013.

Alexei effin’ Ramirez. Sigh. As one of his earliest backers and defenders, honestly even I’ve had just about enough of his showboating/coasting act. The dude is pretty much the only player I’ve ever seen who has made ZERO adjustments over, what, 6 years and somehow managed to lose weight during one offseason, LOL! He’s like Adam Dunn in a way, neither is what one would call a baseball “lifer”. Just getting by on pure talent (problem is, it gets harder and harder as they get older to even stay at par). Didn’t Dunn even admit he would have rather been a football player?

Even stickfigures like Soriano muscled up over time and tried to improve, nope not our Cuban evidently. With the dude’s talent, the hand quickness, hand-eye coordination, plate-coverage, fearless demeanor, the speed to leg out a ton of “cheap” grounders, AR should be hitting .300 with his eyes closed…. with enough bad & mediocre pitchers around in MLB hanging enough 2-0 get me over cookies for Ramirez to hit 15-20 line-drive HR into LF-LCF at the Cell. In the 2-hole, with Eaton on base, opposing pitcher distracted, pitching out of the stretch and infield pulled up, all Alexei would be asked to do is punch a ton of soft liners & grounders to RF to spark rallies with big boppers coming up. Easy. Or rather, it would be easy if he didn’t try to complicate everything. Enter long-loopy uppercut overswing galore, resulting in JoeCredePopsItUp to first-base coach box.

And defensively, don’t even get me started: that much range, arm-strength, aggressiveness = all the makings of a potential Gold Glover. Even UZR used to agree FWIW. But because mentally he goes to the proverbial zoo, fumbles routine grounders, takes horrendous angles, awful footwork, terrible positioning on outfield relay throws…and is a giant p*ssy when it comes to any contact around the 2B bag, which leads to a ton of would-be Caught Stealing ending with a SB or error unfairly charged to Sox catcher……

Terrible jumps on bases at times, not paying attention as a baserunner, either.

Basically: I wonder if it’s really worth it anymore given the 10+ million dollars a year price tag going forward. At 26 and making just 1.5 mill per, there was a chance Alexei would get acclimated to MLB, get coached up a bit and try to improve if only to earn himself a big contract. But now at 32 or whatever he is, maybe that’s all we get.

Between dealing Ramirez and Dunn, Rick Hahn could free up some 25 mill to play around with next off-season. I’d love for Sox to acquire a true #2 starter so that Quintana-Danks-Johnson can slide back to more comfortable 3-4-5 roles. After the 2003-2004-2006-2009-2012 5th starter debacles that killed the playoff chances, would be nice to have a veteran stabilizing presence back end of the rotation starter insurance. And a few spare affordable Jesse Crains to beef up the pen. Plus raises and arbitration. Nothing fancy.

Then again, wouldn’t surprise me if both of those dudes bounce back in 2014, stranger things have happened before. Dunn certainly has the financial incentive as a FA to, you know, “pick up a bat” in the off-season and whatnot

greg775 · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (Waygodai @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 07:03 PM)

My bad on Viciedo; did Sox extend him since or did the ML service clock start in 2010?

Yeah, defense at catcher position is certainly a priority, even though hiding or platooning Flowers in the 9-hole is possible, you can't hide his D.

As you said Eaton has CF covered, because between Nick Swisher in 2008, Alex Rios, then De Aza, I was ready to gouge my eyes out. The fact that UZR apparently had Swish Nickowiak and Rios in 2010 as all time great defensive season at the position… only discredits UZR, haha no for real, UZR was wrong: Rios could barely handle RF just a few years later, makes no sense.

Didn't even figure guys like Samien or Micah Johnson let alone Carlos Sanchez into the equation as far as 2014 goes. I mean, it's one thing to be high on A-list guys like Abreu, Eaton or Garcia. It's another on B-listers. Odds are heavily stacked against them historically, just cold hard reality. Baseball being so stat-oriented, it's easy to fall into a trap of projecting minor league production to the bigs. I mean, would one ever use NBA D-league or college football stats when talking about prospects of those respective sports? Of course not: you scout the player, not the stats (to the best of our admittedly limited ability as fans, however informed).

The Keppinger stuff you mention makes sense, but after making excuses for the likes of Beckham and Gillespie, frankly I was all out of them, haha. Losing organizations, and loser fan-bases, always seem to be chockfull of excuses, ya know? Then again, maybe that explained why a LHP-slayer like Kep was so inept the few AB I did see him play. "Personal problems". Ok, let's assume that for a moment. Also part of what made Joe Maddon a good manager is proper utilization of utility guys like Keppinger; this is where hopefully Rick Hahn and the new hitting coach can help Robin Ventura, Mark Parent get the best of their bench which IMO they failed to do in 2013.

Alexei effin' Ramirez. Sigh. As one of his earliest backers and defenders, honestly even I've had just about enough of his showboating/coasting act. The dude is pretty much the only player I've ever seen who has made ZERO adjustments over, what, 6 years and somehow managed to lose weight during one offseason, LOL! He's like Adam Dunn in a way, neither is what one would call a baseball "lifer". Just getting by on pure talent (problem is, it gets harder and harder as they get older to even stay at par). Didn't Dunn even admit he would have rather been a football player?

Even stickfigures like Soriano muscled up over time and tried to improve, nope not our Cuban evidently. With the dude's talent, the hand quickness, hand-eye coordination, plate-coverage, fearless demeanor, the speed to leg out a ton of "cheap" grounders, AR should be hitting .300 with his eyes closed…. with enough bad & mediocre pitchers around in MLB hanging enough 2-0 get me over cookies for Ramirez to hit 15-20 line-drive HR into LF-LCF at the Cell. In the 2-hole, with Eaton on base, opposing pitcher distracted, pitching out of the stretch and infield pulled up, all Alexei would be asked to do is punch a ton of soft liners & grounders to RF to spark rallies with big boppers coming up. Easy. Or rather, it would be easy if he didn't try to complicate everything. Enter long-loopy uppercut overswing galore, resulting in JoeCredePopsItUp to first-base coach box.

And defensively, don't even get me started: that much range, arm-strength, aggressiveness = all the makings of a potential Gold Glover. Even UZR used to agree FWIW. But because mentally he goes to the proverbial zoo, fumbles routine grounders, takes horrendous angles, awful footwork, terrible positioning on outfield relay throws…and is a giant p*ssy when it comes to any contact around the 2B bag, which leads to a ton of would-be Caught Stealing ending with a SB or error unfairly charged to Sox catcher……

Terrible jumps on bases at times, not paying attention as a baserunner, either.

Basically: I wonder if it's really worth it anymore given the 10+ million dollars a year price tag going forward. At 26 and making just 1.5 mill per, there was a chance Alexei would get acclimated to MLB, get coached up a bit and try to improve if only to earn himself a big contract. But now at 32 or whatever he is, maybe that's all we get.

Between dealing Ramirez and Dunn, Rick Hahn could free up some 25 mill to play around with next off-season. I'd love for Sox to acquire a true #2 starter so that Quintana-Danks-Johnson can slide back to more comfortable 3-4-5 roles. After the 2003-2004-2006-2009-2012 5th starter debacles that killed the playoff chances, would be nice to have a veteran stabilizing presence back end of the rotation starter insurance. And a few spare affordable Jesse Crains to beef up the pen. Plus raises and arbitration. Nothing fancy.

Then again, wouldn't surprise me if both of those dudes bounce back in 2014, stranger things have happened before. Dunn certainly has the financial incentive as a FA to, you know, "pick up a bat" in the off-season and whatnot

That's a great post. Makes me never want to see Lexi play again.

Balta1701 · December 18, 2013

Alexei effin' Ramirez. Sigh. As one of his earliest backers and defenders, honestly even I've had just about enough of his showboating/coasting act. The dude is pretty much the only player I've ever seen who has made ZERO adjustments over, what, 6 years and somehow managed to lose weight during one offseason, LOL! He's like Adam Dunn in a way, neither is what one would call a baseball "lifer". Just getting by on pure talent (problem is, it gets harder and harder as they get older to even stay at par). Didn't Dunn even admit he would have rather been a football player?

Even stickfigures like Soriano muscled up over time and tried to improve, nope not our Cuban evidently. With the dude's talent, the hand quickness, hand-eye coordination, plate-coverage, fearless demeanor, the speed to leg out a ton of "cheap" grounders, AR should be hitting .300 with his eyes closed…. with enough bad & mediocre pitchers around in MLB hanging enough 2-0 get me over cookies for Ramirez to hit 15-20 line-drive HR into LF-LCF at the Cell. In the 2-hole, with Eaton on base, opposing pitcher distracted, pitching out of the stretch and infield pulled up, all Alexei would be asked to do is punch a ton of soft liners & grounders to RF to spark rallies with big boppers coming up. Easy. Or rather, it would be easy if he didn't try to complicate everything. Enter long-loopy uppercut overswing galore, resulting in JoeCredePopsItUp to first-base coach box.

And defensively, don't even get me started: that much range, arm-strength, aggressiveness = all the makings of a potential Gold Glover. Even UZR used to agree FWIW. But because mentally he goes to the proverbial zoo, fumbles routine grounders, takes horrendous angles, awful footwork, terrible positioning on outfield relay throws…and is a giant p*ssy when it comes to any contact around the 2B bag, which leads to a ton of would-be Caught Stealing ending with a SB or error unfairly charged to Sox catcher……

Terrible jumps on bases at times, not paying attention as a baserunner, either.

Basically: I wonder if it's really worth it anymore given the 10+ million dollars a year price tag going forward. At 26 and making just 1.5 mill per, there was a chance Alexei would get acclimated to MLB, get coached up a bit and try to improve if only to earn himself a big contract. But now at 32 or whatever he is, maybe that's all we get.

Alexei Ramirez was 30/39 in stolen bases last year. That was by far his best season and it was on top of a previous best season the year beforehand. He's gotten massively more dangerous on the basepaths in the last 2 years. That's all technique also, that's 100% learning how to steal bases because he simply has not gotten faster over the last 2 years.

Waygodai · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 02:55 PM)

Alexei Ramirez was 30/39 in stolen bases last year. That was by far his best season and it was on top of a previous best season the year beforehand. He's gotten massively more dangerous on the basepaths in the last 2 years. That's all technique also, that's 100% learning how to steal bases because he simply has not gotten faster over the last 2 years.

There is a lot more to baserunning than just SB; over his 6 year career the only guy with more lapses in that dept than Ramirez may be De Aza, lulz mercy!

(76% SB not including pickoffs is actually pretty solid though I'd like it over 80 at the Cell.... but that's again more function of his still blazing speed than any apparent new technique or focus. Because neither translated to other areas of his game, which regressed.)

Alexei knows what he can do and has shows flashes of brilliance. It's just a matter of consistency, concentration and effort that's often not there imo.

YMMV.

Balta1701 · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (Waygodai @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 05:26 PM)

There is a lot more to baserunning than just SB; over his 6 year career the only guy with more lapses in that dept than Ramirez may be De Aza, lulz mercy!

(76% SB not including pickoffs is actually pretty solid though I'd like it over 80 at the Cell.... but that's again more function of his still blazing speed than any apparent new technique or focus. Because neither translated to other areas of his game, which regressed.)

Alexei knows what he can do and has shows flashes of brilliance. It's just a matter of consistency, concentration and effort that's often not there imo.

YMMV.

But you also said he never makes an adjustment. Right there we've watched him learn a new skill that adds significant value to his game.

Yes he needs to work on his focus, although it's also very interesting that his errors and bonehead plays dropped a ton in 2012 when the whole team seemed like they were focused (or in my writing, well-coached) and shot back up in 2013 when the entire team looked like they forgot what you were supposed to do when that white sphere comes at you.

Waygodai · December 18, 2013

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 02:38 PM)

That's a great post. Makes me never want to see Lexi play again.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not an AR hater per se. In fact, again, I was one of the few people who liked his signing and wanted to start him over Uribe -- talk about a bad baserunner, incredibly overrated fielder with range of about 3 inches to either side....

Another thing Ramirez has in common with Dunn oddly enough: with Dunn, he has these stretches where is actually letting the middle-away fastball get a little deeper, shorter to the ball, levels the swing plane a little ---> boom, he looks like a HOF slugger that he was at his best with the Reds, with pitches away effortlessly driven to LF-LCF. And then he reverts to flailing & hooking the ball 2 feet off the plate.....

It's just may be that money is better spent elsewhere given Sox needs and exciting new organizational direction. Let the front-office purge the old underachieving, compacent culture, ya know?

If Kartman Jong Un can acquaint Uncle dearest with the business end of the flamethrower, the least they can do is let Rick Hahn spray some good-juju incence in the Sox clubhouse (i.e. free up 25 million in payroll) know what I mean?

Waygodai · December 19, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 04:30 PM)

But you also said he never makes an adjustment. Right there we've watched him learn a new skill that adds significant value to his game.

Yes he needs to work on his focus, although it's also very interesting that his errors and bonehead plays dropped a ton in 2012 when the whole team seemed like they were focused (or in my writing, well-coached) and shot back up in 2013 when the entire team looked like they forgot what you were supposed to do when that white sphere comes at you.

btw Balta just to be clear: not advocating dumping either Ramirez or Dunn just for the sake of it, if Sox have to pay most of their salary or part with a top prospect.

rather, if there's an ol' "out-of-town-stupid" GM out there, an opportunity presents itself to Hahn to free up some major payroll space with those 2.... go for it, Rick.

(And while it may not look like it now, recent history attests there is still plenty OOTS out there, hearing Tanaka may get 150 mill + posting fee or that Stanley Fischer may have to get appointed as Vice-Chair of Robinson Cano. Say what you will about Reisdorf, he was unto something; for the $$$ I'd trust Gavin Floyd's repaired elbow over Matt Garza's at this point.)

But yeah, if Dunn and Ramirez both show up in March in top shape -- Dunn smaller, Lexei bigger -- I'd have no problem with that either.

If that makes any sense.

caulfield12 · December 19, 2013

QUOTE (Waygodai @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:03 PM)