Why Can't This Team Contend In 2014?

[GreenSox]

No they need "enough" things to go right not "all". Boston this season lost their No 1 and No 2 closers but their No 3 worked out. They signed Dempster as their 5th starter but he struggled so they acquired Peavy who got them through September. Middlebrooks struggled and got sent to the minors. They called up Bogarts a shortstop to play 3rd and he produced.

Right

They had a lot of depth, including minor league depth. We don't.

And they have several hitters who are just better than any of ours can reasonably be expected to be.

Let's win 80 this year, horde prospects, and then make another move next July and winter (and maybe another one this winter, De Aza).

Edited December 20, 2013 by GreenSox

[2nd_city_saint787]

Before any movement happened it was my belief, and argument, that if they got a real deal leadoff hitter and a real deal upgrade over the 2013 PK then they can compete. Whether or not Eaton and Abreu are those guys will remain to be seen.

 

I spoke of what I believe would be a trickle down effect that would infuse into the lineup. It's pretty much a given that most every hitter hits better with runners on and that is reflected in everyones splits but Gordon Beckhams who is actually worse with runners on.

 

If Eaton ends up being anywhere near the hitter he/we would like him to be I can see this team be competitive.

[Eminor3rd]

I see, thanks guys. What about defensive WAR?

 

Defensive WAR is calculated using UZR

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Because they aren't good enough.

[bmags]

Right

They had a lot of depth, including minor league depth. We don't.

And they have several hitters who are just better than any of ours can reasonably be expected to be.

Let's win 80 this year, horde prospects, and then make another move next July and winter (and maybe another one this winter, De Aza).

 

Exactly. I think we are going to see us overestimate the offensive production from the young guys, and we'll likely see a bad first month or two from Abreu (thinking of Cespedes). That may put us a bit behind in April and May but I'd like to see the team finish strong for once.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Because they aren't good enough.

 

Yea? Well, ya know, that's just like your opinion man.

[hogan873]

Threads like this are always entertaining. They are filled with opinions and conjecture and arguments, and in the end we all know that how a team looks on paper doesn't always translate to actual performance. Last year's team is a perfect example of that. On paper, there was just no way that team should have lost 99 games. The 2005 team is another good example in an opposite way. There weren't many people that expected that team to win the World Series.

 

And in my opinion, the advanced stats make it worse. In every thread that talks about the future or potential is riddled with acronyms like WAR, bWAR, UZR, FART, etc. To many fans, myself included, the advanced stats don't mean much. Don't get me wrong, I understand their usefulness. But, often enough, the advanced stats don't end up being good indicators of how a team/player will perform in the future. In the end, a post saying "they're just not good enough" may be as accurate as a post that looks like a college thesis.

 

Personally, I don't think this team, as currently contructed, will compete in 2014. That being said, I think they'll make it a lot more difficult for the team (Detroit) that leads the way. However, another tweak or two, and this team could be close. The catcher position is of course the biggest concern right now, and unless the Sox make some "wow" trade and acquire a proven backstop, we're probably going to see either Phegley and Flowers or one of those two and another question mark.

 

I'm excited about the White Sox again. I love the idea of getting younger talent with huge potential. 2014 is going to be a fun year for the Sox. A lineup that will include Abreu, Garcia, Eaton, and Davidson is going to be fun to watch. And by 2015 with another improvement or two, the White Sox are going to be a force...probably for a few years.

[Balta1701]

I've seen this said quite a bit - worth noting that per Fangraphs, Alejandro De Aza had a defensive WAR of -3.2 in 153 games (7.7 in 2011, 0.2 in 2012) whilst Adam Eaton's was -11.2 in 66 games. (UZR/150 in CF in 2013, De Aza: -4.1, Eaton: -46.2.

 

 

UZR is a horrible sample size tool

 

 

UZR is best used over 3 seasons, not 66 games.

 

With all the caveats said though...that low number for Eaton does mean that he didn't tear CF apart when he was out there. He could rapidly improve, that number could be dominated by a few mistakes...but it's not 100% useless.

 

[southsider2k5]

With all the caveats said though...that low number for Eaton does mean that he didn't tear CF apart when he was out there. He could rapidly improve, that number could be dominated by a few mistakes...but it's not 100% useless.

 

It also could be very easily explained by a guy who had surgery playing CF. He struggled at the plate as well, far underperforming his previous years.

[Eminor3rd]

With all the caveats said though...that low number for Eaton does mean that he didn't tear CF apart when he was out there. He could rapidly improve, that number could be dominated by a few mistakes...but it's not 100% useless.

 

Correct. It isn't that UZR isn't "accurate" at small sample sizes, it's that it isn't "predictive" at small sample sizes.

[Eminor3rd]

Threads like this are always entertaining. They are filled with opinions and conjecture and arguments, and in the end we all know that how a team looks on paper doesn't always translate to actual performance.

 

Yes, this is why we are on this board.

 

And in my opinion, the advanced stats make it worse. In every thread that talks about the future or potential is riddled with acronyms like WAR, bWAR, UZR, FART, etc. To many fans, myself included, the advanced stats don't mean much. Don't get me wrong, I understand their usefulness. But, often enough, the advanced stats don't end up being good indicators of how a team/player will perform in the future. In the end, a post saying "they're just not good enough" may be as accurate as a post that looks like a college thesis.

 

The advanced stats don't make anything worse. If you think advanced stats are bad for discussion because they can't predict the future with 100% accuracy, then you must also think that traditional stats are bad for discussion. Because they predict the future with even less accuracy.

 

I don't get it. If you don't want to discuss what has happened with our team and what we think will happen with our team, what are you doing here on the board?

[hogan873]

Yes, this is why we are on this board.

 

 

 

The advanced stats don't make anything worse. If you think advanced stats are bad for discussion because they can't predict the future with 100% accuracy, then you must also think that traditional stats are bad for discussion. Because they predict the future with even less accuracy.

 

I don't get it. If you don't want to discuss what has happened with our team and what we think will happen with our team, what are you doing here on the board?

Don't get all defensive. My point was that any stats (traditional or advanced) aren't always the best indicator of how a player or team will perform in the future. As I said, I understand why the stats are looked, and I admit my lesser knowledge of them.

 

The 2014 White Sox are going to look very different compared to the 2013 Sox. If you compare the teams on paper before their respective seasons, most people (statniks and casual fans alike) would say the 2013 team would perform better. Now, I doubt there's anyone that is going to say that the 2014 Sox will perform worse than the 2013 Sox. There's something to be said for injecting youth into a team, and changes in venue, and other factors (personal - I'm looking at you Keppinger and Alexei) that affect player's and team's performance.

 

And I'm on this board, like you, to talk about my favorite baseball team. I never said I didn't want to talk about what has happened and what will happen. Quite the opposite, actually, if you go back and read my original post. I was just pointing out that stats aren't always the best indicators. There are other factors, and one of the biggest factors for the 2014 Sox is the number of changes.

[hammerhead johnson]

What's with all the fluff, stroganoff.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't get all defensive. My point was that any stats (traditional or advanced) aren't always the best indicator of how a player or team will perform in the future. As I said, I understand why the stats are looked, and I admit my lesser knowledge of them.

 

The 2014 White Sox are going to look very different compared to the 2013 Sox. If you compare the teams on paper before their respective seasons, most people (statniks and casual fans alike) would say the 2013 team would perform better. Now, I doubt there's anyone that is going to say that the 2014 Sox will perform worse than the 2013 Sox. There's something to be said for injecting youth into a team, and changes in venue, and other factors (personal - I'm looking at you Keppinger and Alexei) that affect player's and team's performance.

 

And I'm on this board, like you, to talk about my favorite baseball team. I never said I didn't want to talk about what has happened and what will happen. Quite the opposite, actually, if you go back and read my original post. I was just pointing out that stats aren't always the best indicators. There are other factors, and one of the biggest factors for the 2014 Sox is the number of changes.

 

Sorry

[hogan873]

What's with all the fluff, stroganoff.

Slight mis-spelling there.

 

What fluff? Just answering a question about my original post.

[Kyyle23]

I think the Sox will compete this season, but pretty much everything has to go absolutely 100 percent right (and then some) for them to contend.

[bmags]

I think the Sox will compete this season, but pretty much everything has to go absolutely 100 percent right (and then some) for them to contend.

 

I think it may be similar to 10 season. Slow start, then have a really hot June to get us into contention, but ultimately don't have enough guns to produce yet.

 

#prediction.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Yea? Well, ya know, that's just like your opinion man.

 

No! It's a fact! You wanna fight bro??!?!?!??!