Why Can't This Team Contend In 2014?

[GreenSox]

Depth and catcher I'll give you, disagree on pitching and at the moment we are overmanned in lf.

In the rotation? We're starting 2 rookies plus Danks who pitched like crap last year.

IN the bullpen, we're going to have rookies somewhere and/or a Veal.

We're also counting on a rookie CF, 3B and 1B

A lot of things would have to fall our way for this team to contend. I certainly wouldn't force it by trading prospects, or rushing prospects.

 

[spiderman]

There's just too many young players who have to pan out, and it's probably not realistic to expect all of them too. Some won't be quite ready, some will meet expectations, but even the ones who do are still developing into what they hopefully will become. From a pitching perspective, they have enough to compete right now, assuming they have a closer on the roster to finish off what should be some lower scoring games. They have a top 5 Starting pitcher, and Danks would have to step up into what they thought they were getting prior to his arm injury.

 

Overall, it's just a young offense though, and I think that will be the main culprit.

[southsider2k5]

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters

 

 

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters.

 

11 minutes needed to repeat yourself? Um, ok.

[spiderman]

11 minutes needed to repeat yourself? Um, ok.

 

Maybe it's doubly important?

[Dunt]

Then we will have to worry about the league having made adjustments to them, but them not adjusting to the league. That's why you see sophomore slumps.

 

Besides, guys like Beckham, Rowand, and Crede have given all of us false hope in the past after initially showing great success. You can understand why Sox fans are leery.

 

Oh definitely, the trademark Sox fan pessimism is understandable and well documented. Guess I am just very excited for these players to be in White Sox uniforms.

[witesoxfan]

Oh definitely, the trademark Sox fan pessimism is understandable and well documented. Guess I am just very excited for these players to be in White Sox uniforms.

 

I think we all are, but there is absolutely reason for caution.

[Vance Law]

Assuming good defense, I can see a team like this competing:

 

Eaton - .270/.350/.400

Ramirez - .270/.330/.370

Dunn - .240/.340/.500 (350-450 PAs); Konerko - .300/.375/.475 (125-150 PAs)

Abreu - .300/.400/.500

Garcia - .280/.330/.445

Viciedo - .260/.310/.440

Beckham - .260/.320/.380

Davidson - .230/.300/.425

[catcher] - .240/.300/.375

 

Sale - 220 IP, 3.00 ERA

Quintana - 210 IP, 3.25 ERA

Johnson - 180 IP, 3.75 ERA

Danks - 200 IP, 4.00 ERA

Paulino/whoever - 180 IP, 4.00 ERA

 

bullpen ERA - 3.00

 

I don't think any of that is unreasonable, and I think some guys can improve on those numbers, but I don't think all of the guys reaching those numbers is likely at all.

 

That team would have a run differential of around +200. I'd hope we could compete with a team that's quite a bit worse than that.

 

[witesoxfan]

That team would have a run differential of around +200. I'd hope we could compete with a team that's quite a bit worse than that.

 

I think it would be closer to 125 or 150, but the general point remains - none of those are overly unrealistic, but the idea that they all will perform like that is generally unrealistic. You are likely to see pitchers struggle or get hurt, young players play awful, old players continue to decline, bullpens blow up, or whatever scenario you can concoct. It's always possible though, and hopefully this team leaves us satistfied overall.

[Lillian]

The young players may, or may not develop fast enough for this team to compete this year.

However, even if they do, the line up is still missing a left handed, impact bat. I'm still very

uncomfortable depending upon Dunn to provide the only left handed balance, in the heart of the order.

Unfortunately, with the new acquisitions, it's hard to see where they now have room to add that LH bat.

Whose place would that player take?

[Rowand44]

My bold prediction for this season is that Paulino is going to end the year as the 3rd best starter.

Ya you seem to be in love with Paulino, I'm not there but hopefully you're right.

 

In the rotation? We're starting 2 rookies plus Danks who pitched like crap last year.

IN the bullpen, we're going to have rookies somewhere and/or a Veal.

We're also counting on a rookie CF, 3B and 1B

A lot of things would have to fall our way for this team to contend. I certainly wouldn't force it by trading prospects, or rushing prospects.

We're starting 1 rookie for sure, the other is going to have to earn that 5th spot if he gets it. Danks just by natural progression through an injury will be much better, no doubt in my mind there.

 

And as I said before, I agree that it's highly unlikely that we contend in 2014, I was just responding to your worries from your last post.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

The young players may, or may not develop fast enough for this team to compete this year.

However, even if they do, the line up is still missing a left handed, impact bat. I'm still very

uncomfortable depending upon Dunn to provide the only left handed balance, in the heart of the order.

Unfortunately, with the new acquisitions, it's hard to see where they now have room to add that LH bat.

Whose place would that player take?

Catcher.

[Quin]

Catcher.

 

It helps that like 90% of catchers they might have interest in are switch hitters.

[Marty34]

The White Sox were 4th in the AL in innings from their starters last year with a pretty solid ERA, and that's with Dylan Axelrod taking a starting role for 2 months.

 

I don't think they repeat that as currently constituted.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Marty34

[TaylorStSox]

11 minutes needed to repeat yourself? Um, ok.

I was hoping nobody would acknowledge those posts and he would throw a temper tantrum. Damn it, Balta!

[Balta1701]

I don't think they repeat that as currently constituted.

Why? Seriously, who is worse?

 

Sale get worse? Quintana get worse? Danks get worse? Possibly, but not obvious why any of them would, they're more stretched out now

 

The remaining 2 slots were filled by Axelrod (20 starts), Santiago (23 starts), Peavy (13 starts), Reinzo (10 starts), Johnson (5 starts), and Floyd (5 starts). Out of those starts we got an ERA of 4.47.

[cabiness42]

I don't think this team was contending in 2014 without Santiago.

 

I'm not saying that trading him wasn't the right move, but that pretty much sealed the reality that this is a rebuild. I don't think that Johnson, Rienzo, or whoever gets Santiago's spot in the rotation is going to match his performance in 2014.

[Marty34]

Why? Seriously, who is worse?

 

Sale get worse? Quintana get worse? Danks get worse? Possibly, but not obvious why any of them would, they're more stretched out now

 

The remaining 2 slots were filled by Axelrod (20 starts), Santiago (23 starts), Peavy (13 starts), Reinzo (10 starts), Johnson (5 starts), and Floyd (5 starts). Out of those starts we got an ERA of 4.47.

 

I think it's possible that Quintana regresses and the 4 & 5 starters are unknowns.

[Balta1701]

I think it's possible that Quintana regresses and the 4 & 5 starters are unknowns.

"Unknowns" though is being pretty harsh and pretty darn inaccurate. Erik Johnson got 5 big league starts last year with a 3.25 ERA, following a full minor league season with a 1.96 ERA between AA and AAA. Rienzo got 10 starts with an ERA in the upper 4's, so there's a decent chance he could hang at right that level if given a longer stint. Felipe Paulino put up an ERA of 4.11 in 20 starts for the Royals in 2011.

 

A mid-4's ERA between the 2 slots is certainly do-able. They could well be quite a bit better than that. As could Danks.

[ILMOU]

The young players may, or may not develop fast enough for this team to compete this year.

However, even if they do, the line up is still missing a left handed, impact bat. I'm still very

uncomfortable depending upon Dunn to provide the only left handed balance, in the heart of the order.

Unfortunately, with the new acquisitions, it's hard to see where they now have room to add that LH bat.

Whose place would that player take?

 

I think we're all with you there, Lillian. I don't see the LH/RH balance being solved this year - even if we acquire a good hitting LH C. Next year, we'll have the DH spot wide open OR Tank will shift there, in which case the new OF will have to be that guy. Agreed that the options don't appear abundant with new prospects being deemed the "future" at the respective positions. But things change.

[southsider2k5]

I think last year was about a 3rd standard deviation bad team. There wasn't much more that could have gone for a worst case scenario than we saw last year.

 

Looking at it positionally, we are going to see a HUGE upgrade at 1B.

 

If we stick to a platoon, we are going to see a decent improvement at DH.

 

Catcher last year was a worst case scenario. Even if it doesn't improve, it almost literally can't get worse than it did last year.

 

There is a pretty good chance for improvement at 3B.

 

I am going to guess we at least see some improvement out of LF, whether it is Viciedo, DeAza, or a platoon of the two.

 

CF we will see much better defense out of, less power, but a lot more OBP% in all likelihood Even so, De Aza put up a .728 OPS. Eaton put up a .794 in his first time up in 2012. He put up .694 post surgery in 2013. Offensively it should be about the same, but more leadoff hitter-ish.

 

At 2b and SS, odds are Alexei and Beckham put up something around what they did last year.

 

RF we might get a step down from Rios numbers, but then again, maybe not. Garcia put up a .775 OPS during his time here. Rios was only .749.

 

In the pitching we lose Santiago, but then again, we should get back a #2/#3 starter in Danks, leaving behind his #5 starter type work. Sale and Q should be fine. Paulino and Johnson are question marks, but then again, what did we get from Dylan Axelrod last year? We also had an awful Floyd for a short period.

 

The pen we had Reed, but Crain was hurt for most of the season. We gain two solid relievers in Downs and Belario. We get another year of growth out of the kids.

 

I think this team has a ton of room to improve, even without anything extra happening.

[SCCWS]

Doesn't every team that wins require everything to go right? If things didn't go right they wouldn't win.

 

No they need "enough" things to go right not "all". Boston this season lost their No 1 and No 2 closers but their No 3 worked out. They signed Dempster as their 5th starter but he struggled so they acquired Peavy who got them through September. Middlebrooks struggled and got sent to the minors. They called up Bogarts a shortstop to play 3rd and he produced.

 

[Feeky Magee]

CF we will see much better defense out of

I've seen this said quite a bit - worth noting that per Fangraphs, Alejandro De Aza had a defensive WAR of -3.2 in 153 games (7.7 in 2011, 0.2 in 2012) whilst Adam Eaton's was -11.2 in 66 games. (UZR/150 in CF in 2013, De Aza: -4.1, Eaton: -46.2.

[southsider2k5]

I've seen this said quite a bit - worth noting that per Fangraphs, Alejandro De Aza had a defensive WAR of -3.2 in 153 games (7.7 in 2011, 0.2 in 2012) whilst Adam Eaton's was -11.2 in 66 games. (UZR/150 in CF in 2013, De Aza: -4.1, Eaton: -46.2.

 

UZR is a horrible sample size tool

[Quin]

I've seen this said quite a bit - worth noting that per Fangraphs, Alejandro De Aza had a defensive WAR of -3.2 in 153 games (7.7 in 2011, 0.2 in 2012) whilst Adam Eaton's was -11.2 in 66 games. (UZR/150 in CF in 2013, De Aza: -4.1, Eaton: -46.2.

 

UZR is best used over 3 seasons, not 66 games.

[Feeky Magee]

I see, thanks guys. What about defensive WAR?