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Hahn's next move?


The Ultimate Champion

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 01:25 PM)
He hit 16 homers in 2012, and in 2013 was hitting over .300 in the middle of August when he went down with the quad. His wrist injury zapped his power. If he stays healthy, and that is a huge if, a lot of people are going to be surprised, and even some haters will flip and say they knew he had it in him all along.

 

I honestly don't think this will happen, but for this season, I see no reason to not give him a shot. He did look much better at the plate last year.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 01:58 PM)
What is an average player WAR-wise? Beckham put up a 1.0 WAR playing hurt all year. I would venture to guess 1.0 has to be at least near average.

 

Around 2.0 WAR is typically considered average. 0 WAR is technically considered a replacement player (0 wins above replacement, thus equal to replacement).

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 02:32 PM)
Yes, he was a terrible last year. I don't understand your point.

Not much of a point, I just looked that up now and realized how horrible that is. I've seen people say that Keppinger should start at second, but I think that's insane

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 02:36 PM)
Not much of a point, I just looked that up now and realized how horrible that is. I've seen people say that Keppinger should start at second, but I think that's insane

 

Anybody who is saying Keppinger should start at 2B want to lose 95 games. He is a valuable utility player who typically mashes lefties who just so happened to have a really bad (and unlucky) year last year, especially at the beginning of the year.

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Before you make any more illiterate statements, here are the facts on Beckham last year:

 

1. Played the first 7 games of the season and was hitting .316 when he broke the hamate bone in his wrist. Was put on the DL, had surgery and did not play again until June 3rd.

 

2. From June 3rd through July 26th he raised his average to .320. On July 26th he aggravated the same wrist, but began to play through the pain. He was still hitting over .300 (.310) on August 15th, when he suffered a quad strain.

 

3. From that point on, his average began to drop, and he was absolutely awful in September.

 

Maybe you see something different than real baseball fans, but Beckham was having a breakout season last year before he aggravated the wrist and suffered the quad strain. Ventura said Beckham was "hurting" most of the year.

 

There are many things to dislike about the 2012 White Sox, but Gordon Beckham's efforts to continue playing while suffereing from two separate injuries should not be one of them.

 

If you're going to get personal, maybe you should take some high school math or learn how to read stats? Or would that make you not a real fan anymore?

 

Since 2009, Gordon's best offensive year was -5.5 WAR. That's his BEST year. He has been a black hole offensively for the last four years, and is a major reason we have been one of the worst offenses in baseball during that period.

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He hit 16 homers in 2012, and in 2013 was hitting over .300 in the middle of August when he went down with the quad. His wrist injury zapped his power. If he stays healthy, and that is a huge if, a lot of people are going to be surprised, and even some haters will flip and say they knew he had it in him all along.

 

People really like to select data during certain time periods that make Beckham look good. It's called confirmation bias. Me, I like aggregating data.

 

What I know is this: In nearly 2500 major league ABs, Gordon Beckham is a -40.5 offensive player. Think about that. He is an atrocious, s***ty baseball player.

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QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 02:51 PM)
People really like to select data during certain time periods that make Beckham look good. It's called confirmation bias. Me, I like aggregating data.

 

What I know is this: In nearly 2500 major league ABs, Gordon Beckham is a -40.5 offensive player. Think about that. He is an atrocious, s***ty baseball player.

 

Jose Bautista was a pretty terrible hitter too. He become one of the best in the game. Sometimes, it just takes an adjustment and getting healthy.

 

I'm not comparing Beckham to Bautista, but the Sox may as well give Beckham another chance. He has been terrible. He's still a talented player, and the team does not appear to be competitive this year. See if you can extract value out of him at the very least.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 03:00 PM)
Jose Bautista was a pretty terrible hitter too. He become one of the best in the game. Sometimes, it just takes an adjustment and getting healthy.

 

I'm not comparing Beckham to Bautista, but the Sox may as well give Beckham another chance. He has been terrible. He's still a talented player, and the team does not appear to be competitive this year. See if you can extract value out of him at the very least.

 

Agreed. Bautista didn't figure it out until he was 28 or 29. No reason to get rid of him now after his injury plagued season last year. And like other posters have mentioned, before injury, he had things figured out at the plate.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 04:18 PM)
People tend to forget that Beckham's success last year could have been due to his change in batting stance. It seemed to really be working for him before injuries happened. Give him a healthy year with that new batting stance and he very well could hit over .300.

Unfortunately it was also a very punchless .300 even when he was hitting it, there was no power in that and he was relying on balls falling in.

 

Yeah, he gets one last shot, but it's now up to him to prove he's not a non-tender candidate, because right now he is one. And then he coudln't stay healthy on top of that.

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The problem with Beckham's "hot" streak was that it was so predicated on weak singles that 1. it didn't pass the eye test, as he was clearly hitting a bunch of shanks, bloops, and low liners and 2. the huge drop in walk rate and XBH made it so that his overall offensive contributions were hardly better than the bad version of him.

 

I think Gordon "has it in him," but I don't think "it" will ever come out. If it does, I'd be very surprised if it happens while he is playing for the Chicago White Sox. Nonetheless, we're not playing in the world of the abstract. It isn't, "is Gordon going to 'make it'? The question is whether he is the sensible option for the 2014 Chicago White Sox. If not Gordon, then who?

 

FA options were always scant and the main potential guys that you'd feel assured would be an upgrade like Infante and Drew are already snatched up and at a higher price than I'd anticipate. From within, Semien is an obvious contender and probably not yet 100% out of the running. Of course, he looked quite overmatched in MLB and his numbers took a sizable regression when he moved up to AAA too. It seems the prudent thing to do at this point is to start Semien in AAA. If Semien replicates or comes close to replicating his 2013 AA production in AAA after a month or two, the magnifying glass turns to Beckham.

 

He has to be playing above his career norms to not be replaced by Semien at that point. If he gets hurt, Semien comes up. If Alexei gets hurt, Semien comes up. If Semien gets everyday playing time and looks really good, we will prioritize his playing time over anybody else's. Gordon will be the least protected player in the starting lineup. If an infielder, whether Semien or someone else, needs playing time, Gordon will be the first one out.

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QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 04:51 PM)
People really like to select data during certain time periods that make Beckham look good. It's called confirmation bias. Me, I like aggregating data.

 

What I know is this: In nearly 2500 major league ABs, Gordon Beckham is a -40.5 offensive player. Think about that. He is an atrocious, s***ty baseball player.

 

Alexei is a -30 offensive player. Keppinger is a -36 offensive player. Nick Punto is a -76 offensive player. Another term for s***ty is 'middle infielder'.

 

It's not being arbitrarily selective to say Beckham clearly had is best year last year since he was a rookie. It's also not being arbitrarily selective to say that he clearly played differently before and after his quad injury. Beckham's merely been a below average starting second baseman since his second year. Valuable with the glove, subpar with the bat, all for no money. Fans' hyperbole about him being "atrocious" is 100% an emotional reaction to him not achieving their hopes for him based on his exceptional rookie year.

Edited by Vance Law
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Beckham may very well finally become the player he was projected to be. That's fine, and there is no reason that it shouldn't be with the Sox, as he would likely not net much in a trade. The problem is that he would then get big money in arbitration, and become a free agent in 2016.

 

No one has addressed the question I posed earlier: "Would you give him one of those insane, long term, big contracts in 2016?

I wouldn't. Let's hope that he stays healthy, has a "break out" year, and can net something of real value in a trade.

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 05:24 PM)
Alexei is a -30 offensive player. Keppinger is a -36 offensive player. Nick Punto is a -76 offensive player. Another term for s***ty is 'middle infielder'.

 

It's not being arbitrarily selective to say Beckham clearly had is best year last year since he was a rookie. It's also not being arbitrarily selective to say that he clearly played differently before and after his quad injury. Beckham's merely been an below average starting second baseman since his second year. Valuable with the glove, subpar with the bat, all for no money. Fans' hyperbole about him being "atrocious" is 100% an emotional reaction to him not achieving their hopes for him based on his exceptional rookie year.

Any stat that says Alexei has been a negative offensive contributor out of the SS positions gets a nice gob of sloppy brown and swirls down to meet the rest of its family in the septic tank.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 05:37 PM)
Any stat that says Alexei has been a negative offensive contributor out of the SS positions gets a nice gob of sloppy brown and swirls down to meet the rest of its family in the septic tank.

Well, in 2012 Alexei was nearly at the bottom of the league in OPS out of the SS position, but he's been in the middle of the pack or better in his other seasons.

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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 04:28 PM)
Beckham may very well finally become the player he was projected to be. That's fine, and there is no reason that it shouldn't be with the Sox, as he would likely not net much in a trade. The problem is that he would then get big money in arbitration, and become a free agent in 2016.

 

No one has addressed the question I posed earlier: "Would you give him one of those insane, long term, big contracts in 2016?

I wouldn't. Let's hope that he stays healthy, has a "break out" year, and can net something of real value in a trade.

 

It's still 2013. I have no idea. You can't say for certain that anything is going to happen yet. Maybe Beckham posts back to back .800 OPS, 4 WAR seasons. Who knows at this point.

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Alexei is a -30 offensive player. Keppinger is a -36 offensive player. Nick Punto is a -76 offensive player. Another term for s***ty is 'middle infielder'.

 

Alexei is another offensive black hole, so I'm not surprised. That's what a .300 obp and no power will get you.

 

The offensive values are compared to others who play the same position, so the middle infielder thing doesn't hold.

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