Hahn's next move?

[witesoxfan]

Don't want to quote the whole post because, well, long.

 

De Aza's max value is what, a B prospect? What's the difference between a C+ prospect and a B prospect? And then, what is the difference in value between Jordan Danks (or Blake Tekotte or Jared Mitchell or Joe Blow or John Deere) and De Aza as a bench player. Right now, you need to play Viciedo-Eaton-Garcia 140+ games each. That does not leave a lot of time for De Aza to add value. And then what is the difference between said C+ prospect and said B prospect?

 

Basically, that is what is comes down to. On top of that, there are very, very few teams that will actually want Dunn to play full time. Maybe the Royals, maybe the Orioles. No NL team should want him. But, from August, September, and the playoffs, teams will want him as a part time player as a DH to add some power to the lineup. You can extract value out of that.

 

Why not save that money, attempt to compete (which you can do with a good Dunn and can't do with De Aza's place on the depth chart at the moment), and if not, deal the same guys and possibly save some money in the process while getting the same return?

 

Keppinger is the same s***, but I think I'd rather deal him for a bad relief contract. Trade him to the Dodgers for Brandon League with LA making up the difference in price. I think you'll find you can get more value out of that contract that way. If you can't deal him, who are you kicking off the roster? Jake Elmore?

 

I just think your philosophy is going about things to an extreme that no one in baseball would be comfortable with, nor any logical economist. You need to try and utilize your resources in the most efficient way possible, and eating Dunn's salary - likely to be around 16% of the team's total payroll - is not doing that. Get that value out of him before you eat anything.

[Jerksticks]

I'm suggesting eating $14.5M for Dunn if necessary, taking the best deal possible in terms of talent. If I can't get an MLB SP prospect/bust/change of scenery guy, and if I can't pick up a similar player as a starting position player at an area of need, then I look for someone who won't have to be added to the 40 until at least next season. Even getting a useful-looking, non-roster UT or RP prospect will be more valuable to us on paper than Dunn. Not only do we clear a roster spot, we move Viciedo and DeAza both out of potential platoon position. Which is stupid. And I shouldn't need to explain why.

 

Kepp, I don't think we'd need to eat his whole salary. I'd eat no more than $3M total, but $2M or less ideally. I'd probably want a little something back though. But I'd take a middling prospect because I think we have younger bench players that are going to be more valuable to us longterm & could use the PT.

 

I don't know where you get eating the $25M part though.

 

I don't see the point of dealing DeAza for anything less than a solid return. It's not going to hurt us to keep him; it's not like Jared Mitchell or Joe Borchard Jr. are beating down the door. I think Hahn would have already moved DeAza if he got a deal he liked.

 

And I also see no real point in trading Gillaspie. I can't see how he'd bring a lot back, but he really could be a nice piece for us as a bench guy & spot starter. Having someone who could play the IF corners & maybe the OF corners too as a backup, plus as a LH PH bat that can make some contact, could help us quite a bit. We have have him at the minimum for 2 more seasons and if he's just a bench guy, even a solid one, we'll get values on his first 2 arb years as well most likely. I'm not sure how trading him gets you anything you care much about, and I'm not sure why you'd dump him just to open a spot for a non-core player.

 

I don't get (further) why we even care about penny pinching on Dunn. We're *under* our payroll budget as we sit here, and if Hahn gets even more active then in all likelihood we'll fall even below that number. The budget is already factoring in max INTL & amateur draft budgets; what would we be saving money for? If eating all that money gets him out of here right now then we'll be in a better position because of it. There's no way the Sox should dump any even remotely useful 2015+ pieces to keep that piece of crap on this team.

I like your point about eating Dunn's salary to reach our payroll number.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Don't want to quote the whole post because, well, long.

 

Well you should have anyway.

 

De Aza's max value is what, a B prospect? What's the difference between a C+ prospect and a B prospect?

 

I'm not sure about grades or whatever. I think DeAza could get you a nice looking SP or position prospect at the A+ level or below. I'm thinking the type of guy that is pretty unheralded but is still a quality prospect. Maybe coming off a down year or injury, whatever. I don't think you're likely to get that kind of value out of Dunn or Keppinger. We can hope, but when push comes to shove I doubt there are enough suitors to create much of a market.

 

And then, what is the difference in value between Jordan Danks (or Blake Tekotte or Jared Mitchell or Joe Blow or John Deere) and De Aza as a bench player.

 

The difference is that those bench types get you nothing in trade, however if you play one of them enough then you might end up with a serviceable bench piece. OTOH DeAza shouldn't be platooned because he is a starting caliber player. He's actually pretty decent, he doesn't totally suck, he does some things for you and is probably underrated & undervalued ATM because of his dumbassity last year.

 

Right now, you need to play Viciedo-Eaton-Garcia 140+ games each. That does not leave a lot of time for De Aza to add value.

 

Agree, that's why you take out the trash.

 

And then what is the difference between said C+ prospect and said B prospect?

 

Basically, that is what is comes down to. On top of that, there are very, very few teams that will actually want Dunn to play full time. Maybe the Royals, maybe the Orioles. No NL team should want him. But, from August, September, and the playoffs, teams will want him as a part time player as a DH to add some power to the lineup. You can extract value out of that.

 

I don't care who wants Dunn or who he plays for. He can play for the East Spokane Mudkitties for all I care, as long as it's not here. The roster spot is more valuable than he is.

 

Re: part time player, he can't be that. He needs to be in there against live pitching all the time. That guy's swing can't get any longer, nor can get become even less confident in the box. If that happens you're looking at 2011 Dunn again. Nobody wants him as a bench bat. He's a LH DH/platoon DH/occasional 1B who maybe you could hide in LF from time to time if you're a little on the whacky side.

 

Why not save that money, attempt to compete (which you can do with a good Dunn and can't do with De Aza's place on the depth chart at the moment), and if not, deal the same guys and possibly save some money in the process while getting the same return?

 

Save what money? He's already a $15M sunk cost. f***ing over your roster flexibility to save potentially a couple million bucks is intelligent why? We're under budget. And we're not competing, there's no way we're competing. The Sox aren't trying to do that. What you're asking the Sox to do IMO is go halfway in the proper direction instead of full throttle along the course that has been plotted. Future > Dunn.

 

Keppinger is the same s***, but I think I'd rather deal him for a bad relief contract. Trade him to the Dodgers for Brandon League with LA making up the difference in price. I think you'll find you can get more value out of that contract that way. If you can't deal him, who are you kicking off the roster? Jake Elmore?

 

I'd make that deal. I've always liked League.

 

I just think your philosophy is going about things to an extreme that no one in baseball would be comfortable with, nor any logical economist. You need to try and utilize your resources in the most efficient way possible, and eating Dunn's salary - likely to be around 16% of the team's total payroll - is not doing that. Get that value out of him before you eat anything.

 

I'm not sure about the economist part. When you have dead weight aren't you supposed to cut the cord, pull your investments, liquidate, whatever, basically GTFO while you can rather than hang on something based on a scant hope that maybe you'll recover a bit of something? When big companies realize they've f***ed up and spent a bunch of money developing something they shouldn't have they just make the decision to move on and then they do it. Keeping Dunn is more of a craigslist mentality than anything else IMO. If you think about it, we've given Dunn what like $60M guaranteed? What has he actually earned of that, maybe $20M at best? Given his bad streaks, including all of 2011, I'd say it's probably less if you consider the negative value he's brought here. The Sox have already lost money on this deal. Look at how his career has been trending. We paid for 4 quality years, got the single worst season in MLB history, a down year, then a bad year, and 2014 will be...? Yeah, dump him.

[Jose Abreu]

It's weird when you refer to yourself in the third person.

I'm sorry, I'm typing through a translator. Sé español.

[Jose Abreu]

Can an ESPN Insider copy and paste this for us?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/...team-winter-mlb

[Eminor3rd]

Put me in the opposite camp here. He's WAY better than any of the options being discussed, and would have cost a lousy ~$20M for three seasons. And I'm no fan, mind you.

 

Same here. I was wary of him at 4/48 and all, but 3/21? He doesn't even have to be a league average player to be worth that, and you'd only be stuck with him through age 31. I can't believe we wouldn't have offered 3/24 or something considering that NO one needed a youngish C coming off a breakout season more than us. Letting him go to Miami for 3/21 is Hahn's worst move of the offseason, IMO.

[ILMOU]

He would have been nice this year, but I have a feeling Hahn has a bigger plan in mind.

 

I want to believe this as well, and it's only 1/5, which is why I'm giving RH the benefit of the doubt, for now. But then why Nieto, and his agent's robust confidence in making the roster? Even if they're in love with him, can they expect him to be MLB competent having never played above high A? Seems crazy, but who knows, I guess.

 

I think this too, but I think it's a more long term outlook. Give the guys on the roster a chance this year to help further define roles. Find a better option elsewhere. I like Saltalamacchia and said on here on multiple occasions that I'd give him $40 million, but I have no problem that they didn't and I do think they'll try and get a guy they believe can be a top 10 catcher in the league.

 

Frankly, we don't need another regular season to accomplish this after last year. All that is FlowGley figures to have plenty of fleas offensively and defensively going forward and agewise and otherwise profiles to be a backup. This is a call that can be made at the end of ST, and maybe it will if Nieto impresses. We don't have a great chance of competing next year, I will admit, but the prognosis for each of the other 8 positions is better, with better fallback options. Would suck to have one black hole of a position holding back an otherwise improving lineup.

 

God knows I'm plenty sick of the Donkey and understand the dump him by any means necessary opinion. OTOH, he is fighting for the last contract of his career, fills a need as a power lefty, and might look better in a platoon role. Hopefully he can be dealt closer to Memo. Day than trading deadline. Savings could be significant, and/or the DH position might be markedly improved with Paulie hitting the lefties. I'd rather do a pure dump of Kepp, if a 25 man crunch brings us to that.

 

I don't see the point of dealing DeAza for anything less than a solid return. It's not going to hurt us to keep him; it's not like Jared Mitchell or Joe Borchard Jr. are beating down the door. I think Hahn would have already moved DeAza if he got a deal he liked.

 

Likely, yes. Should probably get scouting for a high ceiling, raw low minors arm somewhere.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[Jake]

Can an ESPN Insider copy and paste this for us?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/...team-winter-mlb

 

Soxtalk's administrators don't like for us to do this, as it can ultimately get this site in trouble.

 

If anyone wants to share, do it via a few select snippets and paraphrasing

 

[Jose Abreu]

Soxtalk's administrators don't like for us to do this, as it can ultimately get this site in trouble.

 

If anyone wants to share, do it via a few select snippets and paraphrasing

My bad. I tried looking up a bunch of ways to read it for free, but they didn't work. I seriously considered buying a one-month membership just to read it, but then realized I could ask an Insider.

[Balta1701]

My bad. I tried looking up a bunch of ways to read it for free, but they didn't work. I seriously considered buying a one-month membership just to read it, but then realized I could ask an Insider.

No one would mind if you asked someone to send it to you as a private message.

[Jose Abreu]

No one would mind if you asked someone to send it to you as a private message.

[Jose Abreu]

OT but not deserving of a thread, how come I can't see my sent messages even though I know I've sent a few today?

[Balta1701]

OT but not deserving of a thread, how come I can't see my sent messages even though I know I've sent a few today?

I believe there's a box you need to check to tell the software to save copies of sent messages.

[Balta1701]

Castro talk given its own thread since it's already thread-length.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Spitballing here. What about Erik Johnson and Alejando De Aza to the Padres for Grandal?

[Jose Abreu]

Spitballing here. What about Erik Johnson and Alejando De Aza to the Padres for Grandal?

I like it but they wouldn't go for that

[Andy the Clown]

Spitballing here. What about Erik Johnson and Alejando De Aza to the Padres for Grandal?

 

We'd hang up on them.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I like it but they wouldn't go for that

 

Only reason I think they may is because their #1 prospect is C Austin Hedges. I think Grandal and Castro are in similar situations. Good young hitting catchers being pushed by even younger catching prospects.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I like it but they wouldn't go for that

 

 

We'd hang up on them.

 

 

Well now you KNOW it's a fair trade! 1 person thinks the Sox would decline, on person thinks the Padres would. Interesting.

 

Oliver projects him as a 3.7 WAR next season, citing very good defense and maintaining his awesome walk rate (while increasing his K rates, though).

[witesoxfan]

Honestly, it's probably fair value - both sides might/could/would make it under normal conditions, with the Padres possibly even throwing including a throw-in - but at the same time, the Padres may want to try and build the value of Grandal given that he's coming off a suspension, and the Sox really aren't in a position to be trading guys like Erik Johnson.

 

All things considered, I think the risk for both sides is too high. The odds that Johnson flames out or Grandal was a PED'd up freak are too great to make a move like this. EDIT: Also, the odds that Johnson becomes a low 3 ERA stud or Grandal turning into a monster on offense will deter both sides from making the deal as well.

Edited January 7, 2014 by witesoxfan

[TheTruth05]

Honestly, it's probably fair value - both sides might/could/would make it under normal conditions, with the Padres possibly even throwing including a throw-in - but at the same time, the Padres may want to try and build the value of Grandal given that he's coming off a suspension, and the Sox really aren't in a position to be trading guys like Erik Johnson.

 

All things considered, I think the risk for both sides is too high. The odds that Johnson flames out or Grandal was a PED'd up freak are too great to make a move like this. EDIT: Also, the odds that Johnson becomes a low 3 ERA stud or Grandal turning into a monster on offense will deter both sides from making the deal as well.

 

Precisely ^^ I think Phegley/Flowers platoon isn't the end of the world right now,I just think there's time to analyze different offers and lets guys build value and who knows,maybe Nieto falls into our lap and turns into something decent? I just think the offseason the Sox have had thus far has been phenomenal and i think slowly but surely we'll be fighting for a division crown by 2015,IMHO.

[southsider2k5]

I really don't see the Sox trading another pitcher who is penciled into their top 6/7 pitchers. They hit as many areas of need as they could with the assets they had, and not hurting the team they put on the field for next year. Any other move would be a big subtraction and a big hit to the pitching staff, that may only be a lateral move for what they would get back at C. I think they go another year with who they have, and hope something opens up during the season, or next off-season.

 

By and large, I think the White Sox off-season is done at this point. Maybe a small signing might happen, but the heavy lifting is ova.

[bmags]

I really don't see the Sox trading another pitcher who is penciled into their top 6/7 pitchers. They hit as many areas of need as they could with the assets they had, and not hurting the team they put on the field for next year. Any other move would be a big subtraction and a big hit to the pitching staff, that may only be a lateral move for what they would get back at C. I think they go another year with who they have, and hope something opens up during the season, or next off-season.

 

By and large, I think the White Sox off-season is done at this point. Maybe a small signing might happen, but the heavy lifting is ova.

 

Do you think De Aza will not be moved anymore?

[Jake]

Grandal is a huge question mark to me. Are his previous successes from the juice? Can he still catch after injury? Would he have been a good major leaguer anyway? Makes little sense to give anything up for him and even less for San Diego to trade him for anything less than top dollar.

[southsider2k5]

Do you think De Aza will not be moved anymore?

 

It is possible, but seems less and less likely as we move towards spring training.