Hahn's next move?

[ScottyDo]

Absolutely not. I wouldn't sign any of those nor trade E Johnson. That will put us right back in the cycle we've been in since the WS.

Agreed. I think this Tanaka thing has gotten to people's heads. We're still in rebuild mode, it's just that Tanaka is the very specific type of player that fits into the context of a rebuild (costs no prospects, is very talented, is young). No reason to go extending that concept to players that don't match those conditions. We're not that good yet.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Agreed. I think this Tanaka thing has gotten to people's heads. We're still in rebuild mode, it's just that Tanaka is the very specific type of player that fits into the context of a rebuild (costs no prospects, is very talented, is young). No reason to go extending that concept to players that don't match those conditions. We're not that good yet.

Let's say the Sox have this option:

 

3-way trade:

 

Team A trades:

$100M cash

Team A receives:

4 Sox prospects

 

Sox trade:

4 prospects

Sox receive:

6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary

 

Rakuten Golden Eagles trade:

6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary

Rakuten Golden Eagles receive:

$100M cash

 

Do the Sox make that deal? I think it's very possible they do.

 

A Castro deal would be the same idea as above. You're still getting something that you think is going to help long-term. $$$$ and payroll space is one type of resource, prospects are another. If you can use both however then that is preferable since you don't go too far into one extreme or the other, i.e. tons of bad contracts and little wiggle room or a barren farm system.

 

[Balta1701]

You are going to trade a pitcher like Danks/Quintana because we could fathomably replace them with what we have already in our system. There is not a pitcher in our organization, aside from Sale of course, that sniffs the pitching ability of either Bailey or Shields. Pairing one of those guys up with Chris Sale would be a magnificent stride for our rotation.

That's really interesting because Quintana put up a better ERA+ than Bailey last year and a similar fWAR (3.7 fWAR for each of them). Shields was only a tick higher at 4.5. And Jose, of course, was doing that at age 24, whereas the others are much more experienced and in/at the end of their prime years.

[ptatc]

I'm okay with losing out on Tanaka if it means we then sign Garza, Jimenez, Burnett, or Richard.

 

Then trade Erik Johnson and De Aza for a catcher.

I'm confident that the Sox will sign no free agent pitchers whether or not they get Tanaka. I think they believe they have a good rotation and aren't bringing an outside starter. They believe he is special and will pay for that but not a good one.

[hi8is]

Let's say the Sox have this option:

 

3-way trade:

 

Team A trades:

$100M cash

Team A receives:

4 Sox prospects

 

Sox trade:

4 prospects

Sox receive:

6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary

 

Rakuten Golden Eagles trade:

6 years of Tanaka at an average salary that is comparable to a 6-year arbitration salary

Rakuten Golden Eagles receive:

$100M cash

 

Do the Sox make that deal? I think it's very possible they do.

 

A Castro deal would be the same idea as above. You're still getting something that you think is going to help long-term. $$$$ and payroll space is one type of resource, prospects are another. If you can use both however then that is preferable since you don't go too far into one extreme or the other, i.e. tons of bad contracts and little wiggle room or a barren farm system.

WTF are you talking about man? Pass me the crack pipe please

[Quin]

You're better than this Balta. Last year is going to be one of Quintana's best seasons if not his best.

 

Bailey bettered him in FIP, K/9, BB/9, IP (in less starts), GB%. Homer Bailey's stuff is close to top 10 in the MLB for starters. Quintana's stuff is 3-4 material.

 

Let's remain objective when comparing our own players with others.

 

Jose Quintana will be better than Homer Bailey next year.

[Quin]

You better hope for a Bailey injury!

 

Nope. I have more faith in Q building his arm strength and being helped by Herm and Coop to pitch effectively and avoid fatigue and injury throughout the year.

 

Last year they were pretty even in stats with Bailey having way more K's.

 

Give me the 24 year old left hander who has improved each year at the major league level who performed similarly in the AL with the better pitching coach and better athletic trainer over the 28 year old who despite his great stuff took forever to figure it out in the NL.

[ptatc]

Nope. I have more faith in Q building his arm strength and being helped by Herm and Coop to pitch effectively and avoid fatigue and injury throughout the year.

 

Last year they were pretty even in stats with Bailey having way more K's.

 

Give me the 24 year old left hander who has improved each year at the major league level who performed similarly in the AL with the better pitching coach and better athletic trainer over the 28 year old who despite his great stuff took forever to figure it out in the NL.

Yea a shout out to an athletic trainer. We dont get those often from the outside.

[Quin]

Yea a shout out to an athletic trainer. We dont get those often from the outside.

 

Herm and Coop may be the best duo in the posrt when it comes to handling pitchers. It's why the Sox seem to always have a top rotation despite pitchers with less than stellar stuff (Sale being the exception)

[TaylorStSox]

ERA: Bailey - 40th. Quintana not top 40. Sale 17th

 

BB/K: Bailey - 18th in MLB. Quintana not top 40. Sale 5th

 

K/9: Bailey - 21st in MLB. Quintana not top 40. Sale 9th

 

WHIP: Bailey - 16th in MLB. Quintana - 39th in MLB. Sale 10th

 

BAA: Bailey - 22nd in MLB. Quintana - 38th in MLB. Sale 14th

 

OPSA: Bailey - 23rd in MLB. Quintana - not top 40. Sale 13th

 

Bailey actually measures closer to Sale than he does Quintana

 

I'm way more curious where each rank in their league.

[Rowand44]

I'm way more curious where each rank in their league.

Exactly. Quintana measures up fine with Bailey and at a younger age.

[Quin]

I'm way more curious where each rank in their league.

 

Everyone knows that the NL is harder for pitchers.

[BlackSox13]

Are we really trying to compare 2 different pitchers that pitched in 2 different parks in 2 different leagues?

 

I'm all for trying to acquire Bailey next year assuming Cincy doesn't extend/re-sign him but why get rid of Q who fits in with the teams future plans and has proven to be pretty solid so far? If anything we would hope Danks rebounds and trade him. Clearing his annual salary would would pay for alot of Bailey's annual salary allowing money to be spent to fill another hole. Especially since were going to be in the market for a DH depending on what happens with Tank.

Edited January 22, 2014 by StRoostifer

[ILMOU]

ERA: Bailey - 40th. Quintana not top 40. Sale 17th

 

BB/K: Bailey - 18th in MLB. Quintana not top 40. Sale 5th

 

K/9: Bailey - 21st in MLB. Quintana not top 40. Sale 9th

 

WHIP: Bailey - 16th in MLB. Quintana - 39th in MLB. Sale 10th

 

BAA: Bailey - 22nd in MLB. Quintana - 38th in MLB. Sale 14th

 

OPSA: Bailey - 23rd in MLB. Quintana - not top 40. Sale 13th

 

Bailey actually measures closer to Sale than he does Quintana.

 

1 year of (expensive) control, vs. 4 (or is it 5?) years for Q should render the value argument moot.

 

But maybe you folks are just talking about who's better, or will have the better overall career, which are arguable, imo.

 

GMs love to chase the ace-potential guy even for shorter terms, feeling they can be the playoff difference maker. Understandable. Guys like Q have always been undervalued, UNTIL they do it multiple years. If he gives us 220 innings of similar quality in 2014, then that GM might view him as a WAR stackin' / innings eatin' machine that won't break the bank and still has a lot of control, something necessary to GET to the playoffs.

 

I don't think Q will get appreciably better, and last year MAY have been a career year, but incremental improvements, like last year vs. 2012, most notably, stamina, imo, could result from further refinements, and magic Coop Pixie Dust.

 

He stronger than he's been heading into any season, so why not another excellent campaign? It seems to me that Coop has taken it on as a project to turn Q into as Buehrlesque a pitcher as possible, and to fill that role on the team. Not comparing the two, of course.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[hogan873]

Okay. With Tanaka off the table we can get back to what the Sox might do next. Hahn has said he could see some tweaking of the team. One of De Aza or Viciedo will almost have to be traded. The question is whether they package one of them with others to try for a catcher.

[southsider2k5]

Okay. With Tanaka off the table we can get back to what the Sox might do next. Hahn has said he could see some tweaking of the team. One of De Aza or Viciedo will almost have to be traded. The question is whether they package one of them with others to try for a catcher.

 

We might see De Aza traded, but I get the feeling we are pretty much done for the winter.

[harfman77]

You're better than this Balta. Last year is going to be one of Quintana's best seasons if not his best.

 

Bailey bettered him in FIP, K/9, BB/9, IP (in less starts), GB%. Homer Bailey's stuff is close to top 10 in the MLB for starters. Quintana's stuff is 3-4 material.

 

Let's remain objective when comparing our own players with others.

 

Homer Bailey did not spend a full year in the majors until he was 26 in 2012. Q did it at 24 and put up better numbers. So yes, lets be objective when comparing players. Q's numbers are very comparable despite playing in the tougher league. Bailey is fine for what he is, but it makes no sense to trade a pitcher that is cost controlled so that you can sign his higher priced, older, right handed equivalent. If you want to trade pitching to improve the roster, trade prospects or guys that are no longer cost controlled.

 

Danks could be a candidate to be traded at the deadline if he rebounds from his surgery this year as some expect. Before his surgery his numbers were basically the LH equivalent of Matt Garza, so if he can get back to that level, he will definitely have value.

[harfman77]

We might see De Aza traded, but I get the feeling we are pretty much done for the winter.

 

I am not sure about that, I think the market has moved really slowly since the winter meetings as things were being held up by the Tanaka signing. Now that he signs, FA will pick up again and the teams that aren't able to fill their holes will look to the trade market.

[Balta1701]

We might see De Aza traded, but I get the feeling we are pretty much done for the winter.

We still have an insane logjam on the bench/infield in addition to De Aza being on the bench in the OF when he should be starting somewhere and no roster spot for a backup catcher without releasing someone or going with a 6 man pen. We might well go to ST with this roster, but at the very least there's going to be some turnover before the spring ends.

[flavum]

Something has to give with De Aza/Viciedo, and it would appear Viciedo is staying.

 

Same thing with Gillaspie/Keppinger. I think Keppinger will get dealt in spring training.

 

And as far as catcher, Hahn is sticking to the plan. Olivo or Buck just didn't fit his plan. It's either upgrade with a young catcher, or they may go Flowers and gamble with Nieto as a backup.

Edited January 22, 2014 by flavum

[witesoxfan]

It's January 22nd and look at how many starting pitchers are still available. There were probably about 5 teams - not including the Sox - who were waiting on the Tanaka decision before making moves. I definitely think you see teams like Chicago (N), Toronto, Houston, Arizona, and Seattle show interest in guys like Santana, Garza, Jimenez, Arroyo, Maholm, and Hammel, among other smaller free agents.

[brian310]

I would still love to see Rick move Dunn but we all know that is unlikely. Does anyone see the Sox releasing Dunn in June if the Sox are playing bad and he starts off bad for the first 2 months knowing that they have Paulie and Viciedo who could get DH at bats? Assuming they hang onto De Aza, it wouldn't be bad since we would be stuck paying him either way.

[Balta1701]

I would still love to see Rick move Dunn but we all know that is unlikely. Does anyone see the Sox releasing Dunn in June if the Sox are playing bad and he starts off bad for the first 2 months knowing that they have Paulie and Viciedo who could get DH at bats? Assuming they hang onto De Aza, it wouldn't be bad since we would be stuck paying him either way.

No, they will not simply "release" him.

[witesoxfan]

I would still love to see Rick move Dunn but we all know that is unlikely. Does anyone see the Sox releasing Dunn in June if the Sox are playing bad and he starts off bad for the first 2 months knowing that they have Paulie and Viciedo who could get DH at bats? Assuming they hang onto De Aza, it wouldn't be bad since we would be stuck paying him either way.

 

No. About the only time the Sox would release/DFA Dunn would be like mid-August if it were obvious they weren't going to get something for him and he wanted to sign on with a potential playoff team to help them out down the stretch as a bat off the bench.

[flavum]

Dunn Last Day clock -- 8 months, 6 days.