Astros C Jason Castro

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The sox don't have the top prospects that would take to land Castro, esp. If you take Q out. Depending on who develops after this year, the Sox might. IMO, the sox aren't in the position to acquire a guy like Castro right now.

 

Sure they do. Jason Castro is not some untouchable young player. It appears Houston wants Max Stassi as their future anyway, so that already lowers their leverage power.

 

Are you telling me if the Sox offered Erik Johnson, Tim Anderson, Courtney Hawkins, Marcus Semien, Daniel Webb, and Matt Davidson that the Astros would say no?

[beck72]

Sure they do. Jason Castro is not some untouchable young player. It appears Houston wants Max Stassi as their future anyway, so that already lowers their leverage power.

 

Are you telling me if the Sox offered Erik Johnson, Tim Anderson, Courtney Hawkins, Marcus Semien, Daniel Webb, and Matt Davidson that the Astros would say no?

You'd part with these guys for Castro? Seriously.

 

My point is the sox don't have the depth in prospects to acquire a guy like Castro now. Not after trading Reed and Santiago, as the sox expect the young guys to fill in. The farm system is improving but not at the pace to trade away key pieces for a potential 2 year guy in Castro.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

You'd part with these guys for Castro? Seriously.

 

My point is the sox don't have the depth in prospects to acquire a guy like Castro now. Not after trading Reed and Santiago, as the sox expect the young guys to fill in. The farm system is improving but not at the pace to trade away key pieces for a potential 2 year guy in Castro.

 

No, I wouldn't. I'm just telling you they certainly have the pieces to get a trade done, they just don't have the flexibility and depth to live with that kind of trade.

[Balta1701]

No, I wouldn't. I'm just telling you they certainly have the pieces to get a trade done, they just don't have the flexibility and depth to live with that kind of trade.

That's an incredibly succinct, well stated summary of how I feel about this concept. Well done.

[witesoxfan]

No, I wouldn't. I'm just telling you they certainly have the pieces to get a trade done, they just don't have the flexibility and depth to live with that kind of trade.

That's an incredibly succinct, well stated summary of how I feel about this concept. Well done.

 

I agree 100%. If Castro is traded this year, then it sucks, but you live with it and move on to someone else.

 

If other teams and GMs are anything like me, they want to see Castro do it again this year before considering a move. The Astros asking price seems rather high at this point and it's a risky move to make if Castro's true talent level is actually that of a 2-3 WAR player because you are paying for a 4-5 WAR player. Beyond that, I doubt the Astros mind keeping Castro for an additional year due to the fact that Max Stassi, who they would be making room for in dealing Castro, has exactly 79 games played above the A+ level. He needs a lot more seasoning, no matter how impressive a prospect he is.

 

I like Castro, don't get me wrong, but I just don't feel that this is the right time to make the move.

[GreatScott82]

You'd part with these guys for Castro? Seriously.

 

My point is the sox don't have the depth in prospects to acquire a guy like Castro now. Not after trading Reed and Santiago, as the sox expect the young guys to fill in. The farm system is improving but not at the pace to trade away key pieces for a potential 2 year guy in Castro.

Hahn stated early on in the off season that he would likely deal from the team's strength to acquire better offensive position players. As of today, our catchers are pretty bad. For those who think Nieto will come in and save the day, your wrong. The way I see it, both Flowers and Phegley can be compared to Karkovice. They are serviceable backups but they have no business starting on an MLB team on most days. Jason Castro is one of the most up and coming talented catchers in the game, not to mention a left handed hitter with some pop. Why wouldn't we go after him? I understand your point about losing our young arms in Reed and Santiago but you do have to give in order to get and this team STILL needs offensive help at the C position. Trading Q will not set back the growing farm. Will it set back our rotation? Maybe. Not unless they sign a free agent pitcher and we see Johnny Danks return to form. This move can also open up a spot for guys like Reinzo, Paulino and Johnson. One thing I am confident about in the white sox organization, is they do know how to develop young pitching.

Edited January 7, 2014 by GreatScott82

[witesoxfan]

Hahn stated early on in the off season that he would likely deal from the team's strength to acquire better offensive position players. As of today, our catchers are pretty bad. For those who think Nieto will come in and save the day, your wrong. The way I see it, both Flowers and Phegley can be compared to Karkovice. They are serviceable backups but they have no business starting on an MLB team on most days. Jason Castro is one of the most up and coming talented catchers in the game, not to mention a left handed hitter with some pop. Why wouldn't we go after him? I understand your point about losing our young arms in Reed and Santiago but you do have to give in order to get and this team STILL needs offensive help at the C position. Trading Q will not set back the growing farm. Will it set back our rotation? Maybe. Not unless they sign a free agent pitcher and we see Johnny Danks return to form. This move can also open up a spot for guys like Reinzo, Paulino and Johnson. One thing I am confident about in the white sox organization, is they do know how to develop young pitching.

 

 

-No one has said Nieto is going to save the day, literally no one. I don't think people are expecting anything more than a .200/.250/.275 season. He's going to be an incredibly raw player, he just so happens to be talented.

-Ron Karkovice was an incredibly valuable catcher for a number of years, even as a starting player. He was a phenomenal defender. Comparing Flowers and Phegley to him is actually an insult at this point.

-The Sox pitching depth is vastly overstated. If you deal Quintana, you likely open the season with both Rienzo and Surkamp in the rotation. That's not a good situation to be in. Beyond that, Castro's first year as a starting player is incredibly comparable to both that of Phegley and Flowers. Catchers have historically taken the longest of any player on the field to develop hitting skills because so much of their game involves working with the pitching staff.

-Unless Johnson completely falls flat on his face, I see no way he isn't in the rotation out of Spring Training.

-They aren't going to be signing another free agent starting pitcher. We discuss it on here, but it can easily result in a John Danks or Edwin Jackson situation where they suddenly become ineffective and you are left with an albatross. With the way the Sox develop pitching, you won't see that.

-That last point aside, you don't just trade pitching because you can develop it. It wasn't that long ago that the Sox had to use a junk balling Freddy Garcia because they couldn't develop pitching. Frankly, there are certain things I like about Rienzo, Surkamp, Snodgress, and Beck, among others, but I can absolutely see all of them coming up short of what is required. They are in a spot right now where they have about 4 guys you trust in the rotation and another 4 to fill the final spot (and other spot starts throughout the year). You really don't want any less than that.

[GreatScott82]

Ron Karkovice had a career batting average of .221. Yes that is comparable to the Flowers and Phegleys. If you think comparing these two players to Karkovice is an insult, how on Earth do you think they will improve in year two?? Yikes. Karkovice may have been a great battery mate and solid defender, but his bat was brutal- just like Flowers and Phegley

 

The Sox can always address the FA market for an additional SP if they choose to trade Q. There are options still at this point in the offseason.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Ron Karkovice had a career batting average of .221. Yes that is comparable to the Flowers and Phegleys. If you think comparing these two players to Karkovice is an insult, how on Earth do you think they will improve in year two?? Yikes. Karkovice may have been a great battery mate and solid defender, but his bat was brutal- just like Flowers and Phegley

 

The Sox can always address the FA market for an additional SP if they choose to trade Q. There are options still at this point in the offseason.

Flowers had about an 8 year stretch where he got his OPS into the high .600's despite that batting average.

 

If either of Phlowgleito could do that, they may not set the world on fire, you might still look to upgrade that position, but it would no longer be an emergency upgrade and you could be content with that when guys are earning the league minimum or close to it. The average OPS from the catcher's spot around the bigs last year was .696.

[southsider2k5]

Flowers had about an 8 year stretch where he got his OPS into the high .600's despite that batting average.

 

If either of Phlowgleito could do that, they may not set the world on fire, you might still look to upgrade that position, but it would no longer be an emergency upgrade and you could be content with that when guys are earning the league minimum or close to it. The average OPS from the catcher's spot around the bigs last year was .696.

 

Karko?

[witesoxfan]

Ron Karkovice had a career batting average of .221. Yes that is comparable to the Flowers and Phegleys. If you think comparing these two players to Karkovice is an insult, how on Earth do you think they will improve in year two?? Yikes. Karkovice may have been a great battery mate and solid defender, but his bat was brutal- just like Flowers and Phegley

 

The Sox can always address the FA market for an additional SP if they choose to trade Q. There are options still at this point in the offseason.

 

Batting average means so f'ing little that the fact that you are using just that to compare them makes it laughable. No, he was not good with the bat, but for the better part of his career, he was perfectly acceptable. He hit for a great deal of power in the middle part of his career and had a respectable walk rate of 7.9%. Beyond that, you are, for whatever reason, ignoring the fact that Karkovice was a fantastic defender. Why? That has just as much to do with a player's game than anything. Flowers and Phegley were not good in this department. Just using basic, raw statistics alone, Karkovice threw out 53.8% of base runners in 1993, and his career CS% percentage was 41.2%. That is an absolutely insane number. For comparison's sake, Yadier Molina is considered to have the best catcher's arm in the game, and he's at 44.5% for his career, showing how similar Karkovice is in that department alone. His defensive runs above replacement was 109.3, and that's not taking into context pitch framing or balls blocked out of his zone.

 

Underselling what Kark did behind the plate is a big time mistake.

 

Beyond that, both Flowers and Phegley were great hitters in the minors. I have given up on Flowers being anything more than a back up player, but Phegley was especially good last year in AAA. Finally fully healthy, he put up monstrous numbers. Everything about his game and the numbers looked good. He struggled over his first 60 or so games in the majors, which is not new or mind blowing or out of the norm. Catchers struggle at that level for the first time all the time, and very, very few actually come out of the gate like gang busters. There are projections out there right now with him being a fairly average catcher next year, and I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

 

I also don't know what part of "they aren't going to add a starting pitcher" you didn't understand, but they aren't going to add one of those free agent starting pitchers. It's a terrible investment to bring in a starting pitcher for $14-18 million a year over 3-5 years (which is what it will take) when those pitchers are going to be exiting their prime years and getting worse while the team is not in a state where they are ready yet to be competitive AND you may very easily have to give up a 1st round pick to bring in said pitcher. This is the same reason you don't go out and sign Curtis Granderson. It's simply irresponsible financially.

 

If you want, here you go: http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/a...ble/position/sp

 

Who are you going to legitimately bring in that will be able to nearly replace Quintana's numbers that won't cost $15 million a year?

[Balta1701]

 

Karko?

COrrect, yes. D'oh, my bad.

[beck72]

No, I wouldn't. I'm just telling you they certainly have the pieces to get a trade done, they just don't have the flexibility and depth to live with that kind of trade.

Which is pretty much what I was saying. It would hurt the Sox too much to pull off a deal like that.

[beck72]

Hahn stated early on in the off season that he would likely deal from the team's strength to acquire better offensive position players. As of today, our catchers are pretty bad. For those who think Nieto will come in and save the day, your wrong. The way I see it, both Flowers and Phegley can be compared to Karkovice. They are serviceable backups but they have no business starting on an MLB team on most days. Jason Castro is one of the most up and coming talented catchers in the game, not to mention a left handed hitter with some pop. Why wouldn't we go after him? I understand your point about losing our young arms in Reed and Santiago but you do have to give in order to get and this team STILL needs offensive help at the C position. Trading Q will not set back the growing farm. Will it set back our rotation? Maybe. Not unless they sign a free agent pitcher and we see Johnny Danks return to form. This move can also open up a spot for guys like Reinzo, Paulino and Johnson. One thing I am confident about in the white sox organization, is they do know how to develop young pitching.

IMO, the Sox deals for Eaton and Davidson maxed out the pitching that Hahn had in mind.

 

Losing Q in a trade for Castro, and then needing to sign a questionable, more expensive and far less talented free agent to replace Q, [Rienzo, Surkamp, etc aren't really options, more like AAA ready depth in case of injury] would turn the Sox's rotation strength into an area of weakness.

 

Now if a trade of Q turned into a top SP prospect, a solid upgrade at C, + talent, then maybe. For Castro basically, no thanks.

[The Ultimate Champion]

IMO, the Sox deals for Eaton and Davidson maxed out the pitching that Hahn had in mind.

 

Losing Q in a trade for Castro, and then needing to sign a questionable, more expensive and far less talented free agent to replace Q, [Rienzo, Surkamp, etc aren't really options, more like AAA ready depth in case of injury] would turn the Sox's rotation strength into an area of weakness.

 

Now if a trade of Q turned into a top SP prospect, a solid upgrade at C, + talent, then maybe. For Castro basically, no thanks.

Then maybe you try to do a 3-way with the DBacks (again) because don't they have SP prospects to trade? They desperately want another starter & probably aren't going to land Tanaka.

 

Sox trade:

Q

2 quality prospects --> OR Viciedo counts for 2, DeAza for 1, Beckham for 1, Jones for 1, and they can mix/match

Webb/Snodgress/other solid but lesser prospect than that above

 

Sox acquire:

1 high-end pitching prospect from DBacks

Castro

 

Houston trades:

Castro

 

Houston acquires:

Whatever they take from the Sox

2 prospects from the DBacks

 

DBacks trade:

1 high-end pitching prospect

2 other prospects

 

DBacks get:

Quintana

Edited January 7, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[southsider2k5]

This isn't the type of deal the Sox need to make now. Maybe before the Santiago trade, but not now. The only way they should trade Q is if they think his stuff isn't for real.

[GreatScott82]

Batting average means so f'ing little that the fact that you are using just that to compare them makes it laughable. No, he was not good with the bat, but for the better part of his career, he was perfectly acceptable. He hit for a great deal of power in the middle part of his career and had a respectable walk rate of 7.9%. Beyond that, you are, for whatever reason, ignoring the fact that Karkovice was a fantastic defender. Why? That has just as much to do with a player's game than anything. Flowers and Phegley were not good in this department. Just using basic, raw statistics alone, Karkovice threw out 53.8% of base runners in 1993, and his career CS% percentage was 41.2%. That is an absolutely insane number. For comparison's sake, Yadier Molina is considered to have the best catcher's arm in the game, and he's at 44.5% for his career, showing how similar Karkovice is in that department alone. His defensive runs above replacement was 109.3, and that's not taking into context pitch framing or balls blocked out of his zone.

 

Underselling what Kark did behind the plate is a big time mistake

First off thanks for cussing.. So classy. Secondly, I mentioned that he was a solid defender. Apparently you missed that part when you went out of your way to defend Ron Karkovice. Lol. I am not discounting defense but we are talking improving the offense for this 99 loss team. Agree to disagree but Karkovice was not good offensively. Since you think measuring a players offensive ability is "laughable" by looking at his batting average, then fine let's look at his awesome OBP of .289 and his laughable 18 RBIs per season average. Let me ask you a question. Are you a member of the Karkovice family? Despite his random streaks of mediocrity, the dude was not good with the stick.

 

And as I mentioned before, you need to give something to get something. Losing Q would hurt, but your getting an all star catcher in return. That's right, it can eliminate this Karkovice vs Flowers/Phegley debate for good. I agree that the Sox will not spend 15 million per year on a SP, but a guy like Arroyo shouldn't cost that much. Would he match Qs production? Likely not, but he will give you a serviceable veteran arm who can separate Sale and Danks in the rotation and will likely cost around 7 to 10 million per year. I think the Sox would sacrifice that much for a SP.. It's not like they are strapped for cash at this point. There are options out there that won't cost you an arm and a leg. Will the numbers be similar to Q? they might be, but even if there is a slight decrease in production in the rotation, you now have an all-star backstop.

 

So before you loose your cool and cuss again, try and understand the impact Castro can make offensively for this lineup.

Edited January 7, 2014 by GreatScott82

[witesoxfan]

First off thanks for cussing.. So classy. Secondly, I mentioned that he was a solid defender. Apparently you missed that part when you went out of your way to defend Ron Karkovice. Lol. I am not discounting defense but we are talking improving the offense for this 99 loss team. Agree to disagree but Karkovice was not good offensively. Since you think measuring a players offensive ability is "laughable" by looking at his batting average, then fine let's look at his awesome OBP of .289 and his laughable 18 RBIs per season average. Let me ask you a question. Are you a member of the Karkovice family? Despite his random streaks of mediocrity, the dude was not good with the stick.

 

I never said he was good offensively. You are barking up the wrong tree. I said he was acceptable offensively. There is a a difference as large as the River Styx between the two of them. RBIs is also a poor way to judge players too, BTW. Use OBP, use SLG, use BB%, K%, whatever. RBIs show absolutely nothing about how good a player is offensively.

 

Batting average can be an incredibly misguided and misinterpreted statistic, and so often it is not representative of the player's true skill level and value offensively.

 

And as I mentioned before, you need to give something to get something. Losing Q would hurt, but your getting an all star catcher in return. That's right, it can eliminate this Karkovice vs Flowers/Phegley debate for good. I agree that the Sox will not spend 15 million per year on a SP, but a guy like Arroyo shouldn't cost that much. Would he match Qs production? Likely not, but he will give you a serviceable veteran arm who can separate Sale and Danks in the rotation and will likely cost around 7 to 10 million per year. I think the Sox would sacrifice that much for a SP.. It's not like they are strapped for cash at this point. There are options out there that won't cost you an arm and a leg. Will the numbers be similar to Q? they might be, but even if there is a slight decrease in production in the rotation, you now have an all-star backstop.

 

So before you loose your cool and cuss again, try and understand the impact Castro can make offensively for this lineup.

 

Of course you need to give something, but when you may already have that something on your roster, why would you give up a 25 year old stud starter? Your pitching staff is also shot if you deal Quintana, because, as I said, you are starting Rienzo and Surkamp.

 

Arroyo is looking for, at minimum, $12 million a year and he could certainly put up an ERA north of 5 as he's an absolutely terrible fit for USCF. On top of that, is 36 years old. You really want to replace a 25 year old starter with a 36 year old starter? Why? They may as well have given AJ Pierzynski a 3 year deal given those circumstances. Thankfully, they aren't going to bring in Arroyo because of the circumstances above. In that situation, you'd be better off with Rienzo and Surkamp.

 

There is not going to be a "slight" decrease in production. You are replacing a very good, young starting pitcher who is getting better with a mediocre to bad starting pitcher who you hope will get better. Beyond that, I'm simply not sold on Castro's developments yet. I'm sure it will be fine, but they just had Jose Altuve go from .290/.340/.399 to .283/.316/.363. What is stopping Castro from seeing a huge drop in batting average and OBP? His walk rate was good, but his K rate was rather mediocre to bad last year. He could easily go from .276/.350/.485 back down to say .250/.325/.425. Then he's a solid catcher. And, if he gets unlucky on balls in play (or if his BABIP's talent level is closer to .310 than the .351 he put up last year), he could be down to .230/.300/.400 with some bad luck.

 

At the end of the day, Quintana's done it for 2 years, Castro for 1. The Sox have more fish to fry (though not necessarily bigger), so putting all their eggs in this basket is not responsible at this point in time, especially when they have other alternatives at said position and that they will be rather uncompetitive without a great deal of luck. The value Castro adds this year is maybe taking the team from 78 wins to 80 wins, or maybe not, but he doesn't win you a division, so there's no need to invest valuable resources into something like that at this point in time. Maybe next year.

 

I'm done with this discussion.

[Jake]

ss2k5 said it best -- if they think Castro is going to be great but see some flukiness in Quintana, they'll deal. If they feel really strongly in just one of those directions, they'll try to swing a deal. If they think both are going to be 4 WAR players for the foreseeable future, they probably won't do it.

[Eminor3rd]

ss2k5 said it best -- if they think Castro is going to be great but see some flukiness in Quintana, they'll deal. If they feel really strongly in just one of those directions, they'll try to swing a deal. If they think both are going to be 4 WAR players for the foreseeable future, they probably won't do it.

 

This ^

[GreatScott82]

I never said he was good offensively. You are barking up the wrong tree. I said he was acceptable offensively. There is a a difference as large as the River Styx between the two of them. RBIs is also a poor way to judge players too, BTW. Use OBP, use SLG, use BB%, K%, whatever. RBIs show absolutely nothing about how good a player is offensively.

 

Batting average can be an incredibly misguided and misinterpreted statistic, and so often it is not representative of the player's true skill level and value offensively.

 

 

 

Of course you need to give something, but when you may already have that something on your roster, why would you give up a 25 year old stud starter? Your pitching staff is also shot if you deal Quintana, because, as I said, you are starting Rienzo and Surkamp.

 

Arroyo is looking for, at minimum, $12 million a year and he could certainly put up an ERA north of 5 as he's an absolutely terrible fit for USCF. On top of that, is 36 years old. You really want to replace a 25 year old starter with a 36 year old starter? Why? They may as well have given AJ Pierzynski a 3 year deal given those circumstances. Thankfully, they aren't going to bring in Arroyo because of the circumstances above. In that situation, you'd be better off with Rienzo and Surkamp.

 

There is not going to be a "slight" decrease in production. You are replacing a very good, young starting pitcher who is getting better with a mediocre to bad starting pitcher who you hope will get better. Beyond that, I'm simply not sold on Castro's developments yet. I'm sure it will be fine, but they just had Jose Altuve go from .290/.340/.399 to .283/.316/.363. What is stopping Castro from seeing a huge drop in batting average and OBP? His walk rate was good, but his K rate was rather mediocre to bad last year. He could easily go from .276/.350/.485 back down to say .250/.325/.425. Then he's a solid catcher. And, if he gets unlucky on balls in play (or if his BABIP's talent level is closer to .310 than the .351 he put up last year), he could be down to .230/.300/.400 with some bad luck.

 

At the end of the day, Quintana's done it for 2 years, Castro for 1. The Sox have more fish to fry (though not necessarily bigger), so putting all their eggs in this basket is not responsible at this point in time, especially when they have other alternatives at said position and that they will be rather uncompetitive without a great deal of luck. The value Castro adds this year is maybe taking the team from 78 wins to 80 wins, or maybe not, but he doesn't win you a division, so there's no need to invest valuable resources into something like that at this point in time. Maybe next year.

 

I'm done with this discussion.

Yeah me too. I just want more production at the C position that's all. I know this organization can do much better than Flowers or Phegley. Hopefully we can upgrade this position without dealing Q. Perhaps another 3 way deal of sorts? I'm sure Hahn is exploring every avenue at this point. At least we can all hope so. ::Sigh::

 

On to the next discussion.

[witesoxfan]

Yeah me too. I just want more production at the C position that's all. I know this organization can do much better than Flowers or Phegley. Hopefully we can upgrade this position without dealing Q. Perhaps another 3 way deal of sorts? I'm sure Hahn is exploring every avenue at this point. At least we can all hope so. ::Sigh::

 

On to the next discussion.

 

Honestly, I think it's just a time when you have to wait. You can't always get every upgrade you need at that particularly moment. If they can figure something out with lesser or younger prospects, you can make the move, but the Astros have no real need to move him for Snodgress and Rienzo and the Sox shouldn't have any desire to move Quintana, Semien, M. Johnson, or any of the others that it would take to acquire him.

 

It's just a matter of the teams' needs and wants not matching at the moment. I honestly doubt they trade him at this point and it could easily be a situation they revisit next offseason.

[Jose Abreu]

In an MLBTR live chat, Steve Adams said that he thinks Jose Lobaton would be a good fit here.

http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/opti...m/titlePage=off

[Jose Abreu]

Question was answered at 2:26.

[Jose Abreu]

And a humorous Gordon Beckham question at 238.

http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/opti...m/titlePage=off