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Expectations: Jose Abreu


Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu ASGs  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. How many ASGs will Abreu be selected for in this contract?

    • 0
      6
    • 1
      5
    • 2
      4
    • 3
      8
    • 4
      9
    • 5
      2
    • 6
      7


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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 07:33 PM)
Thank you hi8is. Also, did you edit my quote?

Yes. Excuse me Sir if I've overstepped my bounds. However, seeming that English is your second language - I figured you may not mind a hand.

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My first year expectations: .270/.330/.510/.840

 

Honestly, other than the slugging, nothing too crazy there. That's a top 10 1B in terms of OPS, but it's near the bottom end of the spectrum and low on the OBP side. The one tool that has consistently been praised by scouts is his power, so I think that number is fairly reasonable, especially playing half his games in the Cell. I do think his K & BB rates will improve as he adjusts to major league pitching, so long-term I think you're looking at a .900 OPS type player. In this environment, that would make him one of the best 1B in baseball.

 

Again, Abreu's power should be elite, so if he can make average contact, I really believe these are realistic expections. If not, we're probably in serious trouble, because I don't think his Cuban League BB rate will translate very well to the MLB (lots of intentional walks skewing his OBP). A high K rate would likely result in a Mark Trumbo type player, which despite the return the Angels got for him, would be pretty disappointing to say the least.

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I guess I need to temper my expectations.

 

The only thing I expect is a slow start. I remember a thread here laughing about Cespedes April and calling him a bust before he broke out for his great rookie year. That adjustment time/cold is legit.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 02:00 PM)
Just a hunch based on the guys numbers, if he disappoints, it will be in the power area, and not the average or OBP areas.

 

I'm actually mostly afraid of the OBP, because I've heard lots of internet guys say that the Cuban league standard for control is very low. It's one thing to be willing to take your walks when the pitchers are tossing up garbage, but entirely another when they're able to paint the corners.

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