ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 (edited) Don't get too excited, they haven't been released yet for the Sox, although it appears very soon, because Dan Szymborski couldn't sleep so he started running some of the projections...... The results aren't going to make too many people here happy.... Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 23m Decided not to go to bed. Decided to run White Sox ZiPS projections. Now too scared to go to sleep. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 20m After Sale and Quintana, White Sox pitching ZiPS are more depressing than a Darren Aronofsky movie. In reference to a question about Riezno.... @asroka He's at least interesting, more than you can say for most of the system Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 13m @SportsJunkie854 Tweeted him awhile back - Eaton's not a great fit for the Cell. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 9m Well, one bit of good news - ZiPS likes Marcus Semien quite a bit. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 6m Jared Mitchell's projected offensive line is...uh...interesting. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 4m List of ZiPS White Sox Batters over 2 WAR: Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramirez. End of list. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 3m List of White Sox hitters projected within 30 points of OPS+ of Jose Abreu: End of list. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 2m Don't tell the people asleep, but Abreu's at 273/364/494, OPS+ 129, 2.3 WAR, 26 HR. HR heavy profile good fit for the Cell. Edited January 14, 2014 by Chilihead90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomPickle Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Brian Cartwright @blcartwright 18m @DSzymborski Oliver likes Abreu a little better, 280/348/520 w/WSox, 33 HR per 600 PA. I would be very happy if Abreu put up numbers somewhere between the ZiPS and Oliver projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Meh. I find Aronofsky films inspiring - so, f*** all this noise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 The WAR projections scare me. So we only have 2 hitters with a WAR over 2.0, with Abreu leading the team at 2.3 WAR. Ouch. That's worse than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Maybe I'm wrong, but aren't these projection systems typically pretty bad with young players? Also, I'd love to see what they're projecting for Erik Johnson based on those comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski 13m @SportsJunkie854 Tweeted him awhile back - Eaton's not a great fit for the Cell. Did anyone locate this tweet about Eaton's projection? (anyone who can actually take a walk is a good fit for this team) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMOU Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nobody should actually worry about any of this. For guys like Abreu it's purely a shot in the dark. So many others don't have enough sample size to expect any accuracy. A guy like Danks could have a huge variance depending on level of recovery. ~31 days til pitchers and catchers report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'd take these projections with a grain of salt. Hard to project players getting ready start their first full major league season. I'm sure some projections will be close and others way out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'd also like you all to go check the projections for 2005. not saying we're that good, but projections don't mean much when you're dealing with so many unknowns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 (edited) http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2006 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2007 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2008 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...cago_white_sox/2010 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2011 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle...icago_white_sox2012 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-p...cago-white-sox/2013 Edited January 15, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 And here you have the Official Lillian All-Star team: Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3 Brown* lf .264 .342 .418 109 390 50 103 24 0 12 52 42 71 4 5 Gload* lf .304 .348 .501 122 369 50 112 27 2 14 56 26 54 1 3 Rogowski* 1b .254 .340 .379 135 464 71 118 24 2 10 53 53 104 11 9 Casanova c .253 .306 .418 80 261 29 66 13 0 10 38 19 40 0 0 Ernie Young rf 37 .246 .334 .401 101 337 43 83 16 0 12 59 40 117 1 2 Wiki Gonzalez c 34 .258 .311 .407 54 182 16 47 9 0 6 27 12 19 1 0 Jack Egbert 25 4.72 9 10 30 28 164.0 180 86 16 67 101 I personally find this one funny: 2006 Frank Thomas dh .231 .348 .456 104 342 47 79 20 0 19 61 56 82 0 1 2006 Casey Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3 ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Also on all of those links I posted, only 5 times has a Sox batter been predicted to hit 30 HR or more I guess Eaton isn't the only guy who apparently isn't a fit for the Cell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Wasn't Nate Silver the one that said these systems typically underrate the Sox? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 10:14 PM) Wasn't Nate Silver the one that said these systems typically underrate the Sox? Nah, FanGraphs wrote about how Nate Silver's projections weren't applicable to the Sox. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...ng-projections/ Except last year. Last year we were worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 (edited) QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 11:31 PM) I personally find this one funny: 2006 Frank Thomas dh .231 .348 .456 104 342 47 79 20 0 19 61 56 82 0 1 2006 Casey Daigle 1b .251 .312 .437 130 458 65 115 26 1 19 66 34 97 4 3 ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder. While I'm not defending the accuracy of this or any other projection system, with the case of Thomas, the projection has to take into account he would be 38 that year and had only played 74 and then 34 games the previous 2 years. Even then it predicted an .804 OPS for him. Thomas was so good that once healthy he would outperform that level in 06 and 07 before falling off in his age 40 season. Edited January 15, 2014 by Vance Law Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 09:31 PM) ZiPS is mental masturbation without a finish. They are some of the worst and most meaningless abuses of statistics. Apparently there's nothing that weighs proven talent above minor league fodder. Yes, if you take it literally and say "Oh, that's what these guys WILL put up." It's a projection - it's used as what should be expected under normal circumstances. As you are well aware, circumstances are not always normal. Thomas proved healthy and in relatively good shape in 2006 and absolutely tore the cover off the ball. There is nothing wrong with them at all. There are also different systems, and, if you order the full ZiPS projections, they will have high end and low end projections as well. As a fan, you don't have to pay attention to projections, but you still make projections yourself. They are just as useless but they set the framework for what you expect certain players to do on the baseball field. If you didn't make projections, the name Jose Abreu would mean nothing to you and you'd merely assume that he was another slap-hitting Dominican prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 And here they are... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-p...cago-white-sox/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 06:21 PM) And here they are... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-p...cago-white-sox/ Surprising to see them give Sale such a boost in WAR. That 5.7 WAR will get him some serious Cy Young consideration. Usually it's about the 6 WAR level that makes you a contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Here's some fun Steamer projections: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=22,d Eaton as top position player with 2.3 WAR Alexei 2.1 ...Phegley 1.2 ...Beckham 1.1 ...Dayan 0.9 ...ADA .9 ...Davidson .9 Oliver (assumes every player is full time, while Steamer tries to prognosticate playing time/injuries): http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=22,d Eaton, top dog again: 3.4 WAR Avisail: 2.9 WAR Phegs: 2.8 (you can see how much your last MiLB season factors in between Phegs and Avi) ADA: 2.8 Semien: 2.6 Flowers: 2.2 Jake Elmore: 2.2 Alexei: 2.2 Leury: 2.1 Gillaspie: 1.7 A few guys making all their hay on defense in there Steamer for pitchers: Sale - 4.6 WAR, 3.17 FIP Quintana - 2.7 WAR, 4.05 FIP Danks - 1.3 WAR, 4.42 FIP E. Johnson - 1.1 WAR, 4.43 FIP Jones - .8 WAR, 3.34 FIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Phegley with...a...positive...WAR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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