2014 Catching Scenarios

[The Ginger Kid]

Flowers was better defensively. Phegley's arm may make him better at stopping baserunners eventually, but in 2013, Flowers was without a doubt a stronger defensive catcher. Phegley won a defensive award in AAA, but mostly on his arm - so he's improved over time, but is not yet at Flowers' level.

And consider how bad he was defensively. What a gaping hole in the roster.

[Paulstar]

I'm not sure that Phegley has a big upside to be honest. In terms of true ceiling, I have no doubt that Flowers has Phegley in that category. The odds of his getting there just aren't very good.

I don't think either have very good upsides, but Phegley shows more of a natural hitting ability than Flowers so that leads me to believe Phegley has a better chance of becoming a serviceable MLB backup/platoon catcher.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Paulstar

[Dick Allen]

I don't think either have very good upsides, but Phegley shows more of a natural hitting ability than Flowers so that leads me to believe Phegley has a better chance of becoming a serviceable MLB backup/platoon catcher.

I think people should be more focused on realistic expectation of performance than "upside". Waiting for players to get close to their upside gets a lot of guys looking for new jobs.

[Balta1701]

I think people should be more focused on realistic expectation of performance than "upside". Waiting for players to get close to their upside gets a lot of guys looking for new jobs.

If that's the case, then we're going to be in for a long slog to get back to respectability, because we just spent the offseason acquiring guys with high upsides.

[Jake]

Phegley - 2009, 214 PA, low-A Kannapolis = wRC+ of 94 with 9 HR to save his .224/.277 line

 

2010 - 18 PA in rookie, 99 PA in high-A (111 wRC+! yeah!), 79 PA in AA - 98 wRC+

 

2011 - 394 PA in AA, 75 wRC+ with the following counting stats = 7 HR, 50 RBI and .242/.282/.368

90 PA in AAA, 101 wRC+, .253/.337

 

2012 - 421 PA in AAA, 87 wRC+, .266/.306/.373, 6 HR and 48 RBI

 

2013 - 258 PA in AAA, 166 wRC+, .316/.368/.597, 15 HR and 41 RBI

213 PA in MLB, 34 wRC+, .206/.223/.299, 4 HR and 22 RBI

 

34 wRC+ was, by a fairly wide margin, the worst of any player with 213 PA in MLB last season. His 59 wRC+ in July (this is roughly Flowers-level production) turned in 28 in August and 17 in September. Put another way, after his first 7 games he posted a 21 wRC+. For those that like OPS, that's .472. He walked 5 times in 65 games. I can't express how bad he played in MLB last year. Is he that bad? Probably not. But this is every bit as relevant as his one big flare-up in MiLB when we try to decide whether he is remotely tolerable as a big league regular in 2014.

 

Let's also bear in mind that he allowed an unbelievable 8 passed balls along with 5 errors. Add in 3 more errors and 8 more passed balls in AAA.

 

Year by year defense:

2009 - 47 games, 11 PB, 7 E

2010 - 33 games, 8 PB, 3 E

2011 - 99 games, 20 PB, 5 E

2012 - 96 games, 12 PB, 3 E

2013 - 122 games, 16 PB, 8 E

 

Outside of 60 magical AAA games in 2013, he's been a "meh" player at best on all extended stays at a given level. This indubitably influenced some by injuries/health. His health past just raises questions, to which we lack many answers. It doesn't mean we can safely assume that a healthy Phegley would have done really well as a minor leaguer. We just know that he's struggled mightily to produce at a league-average level on a consistent basis until he was a 25-year-old in AAA.

 

On draft day, here are portions of BA's comments, which start by giving him credit for a great college career at the plate

 

Scouts aren't sold on his future production or his defense, however. Some think his bat is a little slow, and he didn't look impressive with wood bats during Team USA tryouts last summer or Indiana's scout day last fall. He bats out of an exaggerated crouch, which makes it difficult for him to catch up to velocity at the top of the strike zone. ... Phegley bulked up after batting .232 without a homer as a freshman, and his thicker build has cost him defensively. He has plus arm strength but a slow release, leading to average results in shutting down the running game. He has caught 31 percent of basestealers over the last two years. He is a below-average receiver who has been exposed this spring by Eric Arnett's explosive fastball and Matt Bashore's breaking pitches. He does block balls well. Phegley profiles only as a catcher, so he'll have to improve behind the plate.

 

It then goes on to mention that scouts love his makeup and believe he'll work hard to fix these things.

 

2009 he is ranked #11 prospect, his best such ranking:

 

...[after talking about good CS%] He also had 11 passed balls in 47 games, however, showing the lack of receiving skills that caused other teams to pass on him. Some scouts also are bothered by his slow release. His thick body robs him of quickness behind the plate...There are some questions about his bat speed and how well he'll handle quality fastballs...

 

2010, #26

 

[lengthy explanation of his health condition] ... He has the potential to hit for both average and power but needs to improve his pitch recognition to cut down on his strikeouts. He shows raw power to all fields, though he can get pull-conscious and some scouts question his bat speed. Phegley is rough behind the plate, with a thick body and below-average receiving skills ...

 

2011, #19

 

[mentions autoimmune issue as well as late-season wrist injury that prevented a trip to the AFL] ... He has a level swing and solid two-strike approach, but good fastballs beat him too often. Some scouts think his bat speed will improve as he gets healthier, allowing him to make use of his plus raw power to all fields. Phegley has to hit because he doesn't do much else. ... [says he's thrown out basestealers well and is probably the first man up if CHW has catching injury]

 

2012, #18

 

[talks about his winning GG award in AAA on strength of throwing] ... Despite his Gold Glove, he's not a particularly advanced receiver. He has committed 32 passed balls in 195 games during the last two seasons and is somewhat stiff behind the plate. Phegley is still raw at the plate as well. He makes contact but lacks patience, and he also doesn't have the bat speed to catch up to good fastballs. He can drive mistakes and has power, but his consistently low on-base percentages relegate him to the bottom of the order. ... He isn't likely to be more than a backup in the long term unless he finds a way to become more productive at the plate.

 

Some BP comments:

 

2013 - Phegley changed several aspects of his game last year. On defense, thanks to full health, he cut down passed balls, while continuing to throw out almost half of would-be base thieves. On offense, a more aggressive approach cut down on all of his three-true-outcome rates: strikeouts, walks, and homers. Catchers often develop late, and many players who've had long careers as starting catchers have been less advanced at age 24 than Phegley. Of course, he'll need to keep making changes to improve, and there are no guarantees.

2012 - Catcher Josh Phegley had surgery to remove his spleen before putting in a full season behind the dish; he has a strong arm, power potential, and there's no questioning his toughness, but he still struggles mightily to fulfill his Prime Directive: keep the ball from hitting the backstop.

2011 - After missing most of 2010 upon diagnosis of a rare blood disorder (ITP), catching prospect Josh Phegley's career is in doubt, but he'll give it another shot in 2011.

2010 - A supplemental first-round pick last June, Josh Phegley has the power and patience rarely found in a catcher, but many scouts think he has no chance to stay at the position.

 

At the height of his hot streak, they had this to say:

Phegley is one of the lesser-known prospects in the Futures Game. He has the ability to punish mistakes and has solid-average arm strength behind the plate. Most scouts that I’ve spoken with do not feel Phegley will have enough bat speed to consistently square up quality pitching, and he is at best a fringy receiver. Phegley has enjoyed abundant success in his second tour of the International League. He profiles best as a backup catcher.

 

I love the guy, I hope he hits really well and becomes our guy, it isn't entirely impossible that he does well enough, but I wouldn't bet on it. The real question is whether his overall value to the team is 2nd or 3rd in the Flowers/Phegley/Nieto trio.

 

What I would do: more AAA. We need more info, he clearly needs more reps, and he has to learn to catch a f***ing ball. I've never seen a guy who is pretty great at blocking pitches yet still has a terrible passed ball problem. It is not a non-issue. His minor league career averages would have him with 25 passed balls if he catches 100 games. In the past nine seasons (an arbitrary selection just so I got several years of data), only two catcher seasons have above 20 - one was Saltalamacchia (Wakefield) and the other was Wilin Rosario. There have been 20 such seasons in that timespan that have more than 10 and 7 of them had knuckleballers on their team. This is a really big deal because his arm can't make up for this. Can he just suddenly stop having passed balls? I don't know.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

What I would do: more AAA. We need more info, he clearly needs more reps, and he has to learn to catch a f***ing ball. I've never seen a guy who is pretty great at blocking pitches yet still has a terrible passed ball problem. It is not a non-issue. His minor league career averages would have him with 25 passed balls if he catches 100 games. In the past nine seasons (an arbitrary selection just so I got several years of data), only two catcher seasons have above 20 - one was Saltalamacchia (Wakefield) and the other was Wilin Rosario. There have been 20 such seasons in that timespan that have more than 10 and 7 of them had knuckleballers on their team. This is a really big deal because his arm can't make up for this. Can he just suddenly stop having passed balls? I don't know.

Since PHegley does have options, sending him to AAA to start the year and going from there is a sensible move.

 

However, here's the one question to consider...what happens if he outhits everyone in ST by a fairly good amount? That's the scenario it would take for us to consider putting him on the team right?

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Phegley is likely going to be the starter, so your wish has probably been granted.

If they don't acquire a decent starting catcher, Nieto will probably be the starter with Flowers the backup and Phegley starting in AAA. If Phegley tears it up in Charlotte and Nieto isn't impressing, Phegley will probably get called up to take over.

 

If Hahn is able to swing a deal for a good catcher, I think Nieto stays as the backup and Flowers is released or traded.

 

Either way, Phegley probably starts in AAA unless Nieto really shows absolutely nothing in ST.

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow, that's a good detailed write-up Jake. Really though, you are reinforcing everything I said, except trying to put overall hitting values on his years in the minors. You have to take his history into account, you cannot look at overall hitting numbers per-level with him and have it make any sense.

 

[southsider2k5]

Since PHegley does have options, sending him to AAA to start the year and going from there is a sensible move.

 

However, here's the one question to consider...what happens if he outhits everyone in ST by a fairly good amount? That's the scenario it would take for us to consider putting him on the team right?

 

Which is why I think it happens. Plus it won't hurt him to work on his defense some more.

[Jake]

Since PHegley does have options, sending him to AAA to start the year and going from there is a sensible move.

 

However, here's the one question to consider...what happens if he outhits everyone in ST by a fairly good amount? That's the scenario it would take for us to consider putting him on the team right?

 

I'm not against letting the coaching staff evaluate and allow production to (an extent) dictate the winner of that position.

 

Wow, that's a good detailed write-up Jake. Really though, you are reinforcing everything I said, except trying to put overall hitting values on his years in the minors. You have to take his history into account, you cannot look at overall hitting numbers per-level with him and have it make any sense.

 

I guess my argument is mainly that we can't ignore those numbers, even if we do take into account the very meaningful health obstacles. When we try to decide if the beginning of his 2013 is meaningful, we look at whatever other evidence we have...and that evidence is bleak. Incomplete, certainly. Given the other "healthy version of Phegley" evidence we have is him being MLB's worst hitter and trying to set records for passed balls allowed, I honestly don't want to see him anywhere near the MLB roster before he hits well in AAA again.

 

Of course, even if he starts to see some of that upside as a hitter, I am seriously worried about his value as a defender. It seems like scouts have always wanted to discount his good throwing numbers, but even if those will persist, the PB issue is mindblowing. Can we teach him not to do that? How do you teach a catcher to...catch?

[Balta1701]

Which is why I think it happens. Plus it won't hurt him to work on his defense some more.

Based on our previous luck I'm assuming everything will go wrong in ST. Nieto and Flowers will both hit .100 and Phegley will hit .500.

[GreatScott82]

Based on our previous luck I'm assuming everything will go wrong in ST. Nieto and Flowers will both hit .100 and Phegley will hit .500.

Its going to be another long year watching these dudes behind the plate. Even Hahn seems deflated in recent interviews in regards to the catcher position. Keep exploring every option, buddy! Please, Please explore every option... three way deals, financial creativity... do what you need to do, Mr. Hahn.

[Wanne]

One problem Phegley has, which if your profession is a catcher, can be considered alarming, is actually catching the ball.

Chances are no one will want to ever see Flowers, Phegley or Nieto catch another game for the White Sox once October rolls around, but teams aren't exactly trading away outstanding catchers who hit a ton at the moment.

 

Exactly. I know this has been brought up a ton...but what would it take you think to pry away either Sanchez or Murphy from the Yankees (Murphy seems more feasible)?

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Hey guys, long time sox fan. Just found this site from woods of Ypres. Been looking for a great sox board. I'm the only sox fan here in charleston,sc. Grew up in ohio though and Frank Thomas was my favorite player so I picked the sox. Meanwhile all my friends liked the tigers and Indians. Just telling ya a little about me so you don't think I'm a troll lol. Excited for this season finally with a young core of players to look forward to the future. Wish we got tanaka but at least we tried. It's all I ask for. Still wishing we trade for a catcher. I know Wieters was on the block but he's probably too costly and a boras client so no extension could be worked out likely. Hope we can flip De Aza for a catcher. Can't stomach any of his little league base running.

[Jake]

Hey guys, long time sox fan. Just found this site from woods of Ypres. Been looking for a great sox board. I'm the only sox fan here in charleston,sc. Grew up in ohio though and Frank Thomas was my favorite player so I picked the sox. Meanwhile all my friends liked the tigers and Indians. Just telling ya a little about me so you don't think I'm a troll lol. Excited for this season finally with a young core of players to look forward to the future. Wish we got tanaka but at least we tried. It's all I ask for. Still wishing we trade for a catcher. I know Wieters was on the block but he's probably too costly and a boras client so no extension could be worked out likely. Hope we can flip De Aza for a catcher. Can't stomach any of his little league base running.

 

Welcome!

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Welcome!

Thanks man. First season I'm truly looking forward to. Gona be some growing pains for sure but can't be any worse than last year. Hope to see our young guys develop...mainly these hitters.

[TaylorStSox]

Phegley doesn't pass the eye test. He has an atrocious looking swing. It has a bad plane, it's forced and it looks manufactured. He's really bad behind the plate. He isn't athletic. He doesn't move well and his reactions are bad. He's also a prime candidate for PED's. Flowers is already a juicer, but his swing, while flawed, is much more natural. It has easy pop and he demonstrated a very good eye in the minors. He moves well behind the plate for a big guy and frames pitches well. He has a much better pedigree.

 

Most likely neither player is the answer, but I would roll the dice on a healthy Flowers. Plus, I made an awful bet on Flowers so I need some redemption. Also, the Sox wouldn't have signed him to a $900,000 deal if he was totally out of the plan.

[greg775]

Oops I typed in my catcher take in the other thread before I saw this thread. I guess great minds think alike. We all had catcher on the mind.

[Vance Law]

1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise.

 

But lucky for Nieto, the bar has been set incredibly low. Is he likely to do worse than a .522 OPS? That's what Phegley did and he remained the starter for half the season.

[southsider2k5]

Hey guys, long time sox fan. Just found this site from woods of Ypres. Been looking for a great sox board. I'm the only sox fan here in charleston,sc. Grew up in ohio though and Frank Thomas was my favorite player so I picked the sox. Meanwhile all my friends liked the tigers and Indians. Just telling ya a little about me so you don't think I'm a troll lol. Excited for this season finally with a young core of players to look forward to the future. Wish we got tanaka but at least we tried. It's all I ask for. Still wishing we trade for a catcher. I know Wieters was on the block but he's probably too costly and a boras client so no extension could be worked out likely. Hope we can flip De Aza for a catcher. Can't stomach any of his little league base running.

 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm not against letting the coaching staff evaluate and allow production to (an extent) dictate the winner of that position.

 

 

 

I guess my argument is mainly that we can't ignore those numbers, even if we do take into account the very meaningful health obstacles. When we try to decide if the beginning of his 2013 is meaningful, we look at whatever other evidence we have...and that evidence is bleak. Incomplete, certainly. Given the other "healthy version of Phegley" evidence we have is him being MLB's worst hitter and trying to set records for passed balls allowed, I honestly don't want to see him anywhere near the MLB roster before he hits well in AAA again.

 

Of course, even if he starts to see some of that upside as a hitter, I am seriously worried about his value as a defender. It seems like scouts have always wanted to discount his good throwing numbers, but even if those will persist, the PB issue is mindblowing. Can we teach him not to do that? How do you teach a catcher to...catch?

 

Defense is definitely my big concern with him, no argument there at all. If he can't improve a lot on what he did in the majors defensively, he can't stick, even as a backup. Given the fact that BP, scouts and others said he'd improved his defense significantly in AAA, there is the chance that some of what we saw was nerves. Time will tell.

 

[royoung]

Its going to be another long year watching these dudes behind the plate. Even Hahn seems deflated in recent interviews in regards to the catcher position. Keep exploring every option, buddy! Please, Please explore every option... three way deals, financial creativity... do what you need to do, Mr. Hahn.

 

It's going to be ugly, but a lot of teams punt the catcher position. I am ok with him not making a bad move just to put a band aid on the position in 2014.

[Balta1701]

Phegley doesn't pass the eye test. He has an atrocious looking swing. It has a bad plane, it's forced and it looks manufactured. He's really bad behind the plate. He isn't athletic. He doesn't move well and his reactions are bad. He's also a prime candidate for PED's. Flowers is already a juicer, but his swing, while flawed, is much more natural. It has easy pop and he demonstrated a very good eye in the minors. He moves well behind the plate for a big guy and frames pitches well. He has a much better pedigree.

 

Most likely neither player is the answer, but I would roll the dice on a healthy Flowers. Plus, I made an awful bet on Flowers so I need some redemption. Also, the Sox wouldn't have signed him to a $900,000 deal if he was totally out of the plan.

Josh Phegley attempting PED's is a recipe for Josh Phegley's funeral.

[NorthSideSox72]

Josh Phegley attempting PED's is a recipe for Josh Phegley's funeral.

Yeah, I've said before, I'd be more confident in him being clean than just about anyone. People with auto-immune and blood disorders would have to think long and hard before pumping nitro through their engine. They would be at huge risk of, well, death. I just don't see it with him. Nothing is impossible, but if I had to bet on one prospect being definitelty clean, he'd likely be it.

 

[southsideirish71]

Phegley doesn't pass the eye test. He has an atrocious looking swing. It has a bad plane, it's forced and it looks manufactured. He's really bad behind the plate. He isn't athletic. He doesn't move well and his reactions are bad. He's also a prime candidate for PED's. Flowers is already a juicer, but his swing, while flawed, is much more natural. It has easy pop and he demonstrated a very good eye in the minors. He moves well behind the plate for a big guy and frames pitches well. He has a much better pedigree.

 

Most likely neither player is the answer, but I would roll the dice on a healthy Flowers. Plus, I made an awful bet on Flowers so I need some redemption. Also, the Sox wouldn't have signed him to a $900,000 deal if he was totally out of the plan.

 

His swing doesnt pass what eye test, yours. Outside of him starting out with an open stance the rest of it is relatively clean. Here is his swing at the point of the contact. And it looks pretty good. Head is down, back knee is bent, up on his toe, the bat is at the point of contact pretty well as well. Could he get into bad habits, sure. But making comments about its an atrocious looking swing is comical.