2014 Catching Scenarios

[southsider2k5]

Phegley definitely has options. I also think Flowers is out of them, but I'm not 100% on that.

 

Unless something crazy happens in the spring, Flowers is the start, Nieto is the back up, and Phegs goes to Charlotte.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Unless something crazy happens in the spring, Flowers is the start, Nieto is the back up, and Phegs goes to Charlotte.

 

This is my thinking too. The organization seems to be high on Nieto so I doubt they're going to want to lose him right away and Phegley seems like he needs a little more time in AAA.

Edited January 22, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[witesoxfan]

This is my thinking too. The organization seems to be high on Nieto so I doubt they're going to want to lose him right away and Phegley seems like he needs a little more time in AAA.

 

Phegley has 769 plate appearances in AAA. If he needs more, then the organization may as well just trade him to someone willing to give him a shot.

[Steve9347]

Phegley has 769 plate appearances in AAA. If he needs more, then the organization may as well just trade him to someone willing to give him a shot.

This.

 

If Tyler Flowers is the f***ing starting catcher for the White Sox again, I will f***ing kill someone.

[Kyyle23]

This.

 

If Tyler Flowers is the f***ing starting catcher for the White Sox again, I will f***ing kill someone.

 

Lombard is not safe anymore

[Jake]

I'm rooting for Phegley and it isn't impossible that he succeeds, but he is not and has never been a good prospect. He's small, he had never produced at any level until repeating AAA for the third season at age 25, and he is not a good defender. These things have always been true of him. He's had health problems, but he's also never done much. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's a guy who at his best looks unlikely to be much better than average with a negative value defense, decent arm but not an amazing record of throwing runners out, and a bat that has traditionally been low average, very low OBP, and low power.

[chetkincaid]

I'm rooting for Phegley and it isn't impossible that he succeeds, but he is not and has never been a good prospect. He's small, he had never produced at any level until repeating AAA for the third season at age 25, and he is not a good defender. These things have always been true of him. He's had health problems, but he's also never done much. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's a guy who at his best looks unlikely to be much better than average with a negative value defense, decent arm but not an amazing record of throwing runners out, and a bat that has traditionally been low average, very low OBP, and low power.

 

 

Damn that is sobering and depressing. It kinda puts a damper on #PhegleyFacts hashtag.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm rooting for Phegley and it isn't impossible that he succeeds, but he is not and has never been a good prospect. He's small, he had never produced at any level until repeating AAA for the third season at age 25, and he is not a good defender. These things have always been true of him. He's had health problems, but he's also never done much. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's a guy who at his best looks unlikely to be much better than average with a negative value defense, decent arm but not an amazing record of throwing runners out, and a bat that has traditionally been low average, very low OBP, and low power.

I don't think anyone is putting all their eggs in that basket, certainly not long term, but I do disagree with this assessment of Phegley.

 

The injury history is not some small side item to consider. You have to look at his full history. He was sent straight to A ball upon draft, which is done only very rarely in most organizations, and certainly isn't typical for a supplemental pick. Despite that, as a 21 year old just drafted, he didn't completely embarass himself at Kanny, and in fact put up a .408 SLG with a resonable K rate. That is a success. In 2010 he hit .292 in A+ and AA but lost most of the year with ITP, a condition that was very serious. Then, despite having only about 400 professional plate appearances (that is less than a full season), he started 2011 at AA - again an enormous jump considered his development time. Between AA and AAA that year, he put up a mid-600's OPS, playing most of a season. Finally in 2012, he was at AAA with less than 900 PA - less than two full seasons. Predictably his numbers weren't great (.680 OPS), but again his contact rate was good. Finally, he was at AAA in 2013 at a nearly-expected level of professional at bats, and was healthy a full season, and guess what? He raked.

 

His entire history says he is likely to hit well, though he does need to lay off more pitches and take some walks. There is every reason to believe he will hit in the majors, though no one is saying he'll be an All Star.

 

The glove is the question. The arm is fine. Can he defend the position? That is the key for him. If he can be average at that, he can be a starting C, in my view.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Damn that is sobering and depressing. It kinda puts a damper on #PhegleyFacts hashtag.

Also not terribly accurate, as I noted. Phegley is not a normal case - you have to know the history to understand his situation. He's actually overachieved with the bat at each level, relative to his development experience. The only factor of doubt is a lack of walks. His Iso SLG has been decent to very good. His contact rate has been solid.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

As for the 2014 catching situation, I think Nieto has a near-zero chance of sticking. The guy hasn't played above A ball. He'll be offered back to the original club, and the Sox will lose him, unless they work out a trade (which may happen) to allow him to go back down to AA. That means Flowers and Phegley again. And I think Phegley should be the starter in that scenario, if he can look at least somewhat competent defensively.

 

[southsider2k5]

As for the 2014 catching situation, I think Nieto has a near-zero chance of sticking. The guy hasn't played above A ball. He'll be offered back to the original club, and the Sox will lose him, unless they work out a trade (which may happen) to allow him to go back down to AA. That means Flowers and Phegley again. And I think Phegley should be the starter in that scenario, if he can look at least somewhat competent defensively.

 

Unless the guy just absolutely flops and the organization can't stand him, I can't see them drafting him only to give him back quickly. Nieto is the one catcher I would bet is on the opening day roster.

[Princess Dye]

If Tyler Flowers is the f***ing starting catcher for the White Sox again, I will f***ing kill someone.

 

Flowers is as low as low can be in the hearts and minds of Sox fans right now. But stepping back for a second, a bounceback for him is not some insane thought:

 

1) last year was 250 at-bats only. Prior to that he was a young .700 OPS catcher and we were all looking for him to take the next step offensively. That was 250 atbats ago.

 

2) the minor league #s

[NorthSideSox72]

Unless the guy just absolutely flops and the organization can't stand him, I can't see them drafting him only to give him back quickly. Nieto is the one catcher I would bet is on the opening day roster.

How many position players, let alone catchers (a much more complex position) have gone from A ball to a full year in the majors? I'd be surprised if it was more than a couple times, ever.

 

I think the Sox will try to work out a trade to keep him and send him to AA. Spring Training is basically a $25,000 audition, think of it like a low-level amateur draft pick at that money. Worst case, he's gone, and they spent 25k, which they spend on a few dozen draft picks a year. The other likely scenario, they like him, they work out a trade for him.

 

The Sox won't fret much over $25k here. They'll take who make sense, and unless Nieto is a beast in Arizona, it won't be him. That's my prediction.

 

[southsider2k5]

How many position players, let alone catchers (a much more complex position) have gone from A ball to a full year in the majors? I'd be surprised if it was more than a couple times, ever.

 

I think the Sox will try to work out a trade to keep him and send him to AA. Spring Training is basically a $25,000 audition, think of it like a low-level amateur draft pick at that money. Worst case, he's gone, and they spent 25k, which they spend on a few dozen draft picks a year. The other likely scenario, they like him, they work out a trade for him.

 

The Sox won't fret much over $25k here. They'll take who make sense, and unless Nieto is a beast in Arizona, it won't be him. That's my prediction.

 

It isn't about the money. It is about getting more catching talent into the system. If they think he will be a player in 15/16/17, they will keep him. 2014 doesn't really matter, so if he doesn't play a lot, they aren't going to care.

[NorthSideSox72]

It isn't about the money. It is about getting more catching talent into the system. If they think he will be a player in 15/16/17, they will keep him. 2014 doesn't really matter, so if he doesn't play a lot, they aren't going to care.

1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise.

 

2. If they think he will be an MLB player in 15/16/17, then hiding him on the MLB bench does very little to help that - a lot less than putting him at AA then AAA the next year or two. So it stunts his development. That's why they will care.

 

3. No one is contesting that they are trying to get more catching talent in the system. The question is, what is their plan? I think him making the major league roster is a long shot and I think they are smart enough to see that. Therefore, that isn't what they think is likely. Going down that road, they obviously have a backup plan that is likely to come up, and the most logical one is the path I mentioned.

 

[southsider2k5]

1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise.

 

2. If they think he will be an MLB player in 15/16/17, then hiding him on the MLB bench does very little to help that - a lot less than putting him at AA then AAA the next year or two. So it stunts his development. That's why they will care.

 

3. No one is contesting that they are trying to get more catching talent in the system. The question is, what is their plan? I think him making the major league roster is a long shot and I think they are smart enough to see that. Therefore, that isn't what they think is likely. Going down that road, they obviously have a backup plan that is likely to come up, and the most logical one is the path I mentioned.

 

But they still get to keep him. If they offer him back, there is a good chance he is gone forever, which defeats the whole purpose. If they didn't think he could be on the roster for this season, they wouldn't have wasted teh pick on him.

[Dick Allen]

1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise.

 

2. If they think he will be an MLB player in 15/16/17, then hiding him on the MLB bench does very little to help that - a lot less than putting him at AA then AAA the next year or two. So it stunts his development. That's why they will care.

 

3. No one is contesting that they are trying to get more catching talent in the system. The question is, what is their plan? I think him making the major league roster is a long shot and I think they are smart enough to see that. Therefore, that isn't what they think is likely. Going down that road, they obviously have a backup plan that is likely to come up, and the most logical one is the path I mentioned.

Yeah, I don't see how sitting a guy on the bench in 2014 gets him ready in 2015. Rule 5 guys hardly ever work anymore, but if he shows enough, I think the Sox will work out a deal to keep him. It would be a miracle, especially for a catcher, for him to stick an entire season, especially with Konerko taking a bench spot. This guy cannot be hidden. He would have to play.

[witesoxfan]

1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise.

 

2. If they think he will be an MLB player in 15/16/17, then hiding him on the MLB bench does very little to help that - a lot less than putting him at AA then AAA the next year or two. So it stunts his development. That's why they will care.

 

3. No one is contesting that they are trying to get more catching talent in the system. The question is, what is their plan? I think him making the major league roster is a long shot and I think they are smart enough to see that. Therefore, that isn't what they think is likely. Going down that road, they obviously have a backup plan that is likely to come up, and the most logical one is the path I mentioned.

 

With any of these Rule 5 guys, it really shouldn't be hard to acquire them outright from their original clubs. They've spent 3-4 years and have not been added to the roster. Most of these teams will not think that highly of them and they'll trade for them a song.

[NorthSideSox72]

Asked a historian my own question from earlier - has any catcher gone A ball to MLB and stuck for at least a season. Found... one. Butch Wynegar, in 1976. And he put up monster numbers that dwarf anything Nieto has every done offensively. There don't seem to be any other examples.

 

With any of these Rule 5 guys, it really shouldn't be hard to acquire them outright from their original clubs. They've spent 3-4 years and have not been added to the roster. Most of these teams will not think that highly of them and they'll trade for them a song.

 

Exactly, and I think that is their plan, unless Nieto blows them away. They are treating Rule V much like the amateur draft, except with the added hurdle of the 40 man requirement behind it (he'll have to be on the 40 even if they acquire him in a trade). It is a good $25k gamble, and there may already been ground work for the trade in place based on how he does.

 

[witesoxfan]

good work splitting this, whoever did so

[Paulstar]

Completely agree. No one talks about his defensive struggles last year - he seemed to have trouble finding the ball if it hit the dirt, and at times just catching pitches. For me he has to hit a ton if his defense doesn't come up to MLB standards

Did everyone forget that for how bad Phegley was defensively, Flowers was probably worse?

 

If neither are good at catching, I'll go with the younger guy with more upside.

[Steve9347]

Lombard is not safe anymore

Truth

[NorthSideSox72]

Did everyone forget that for how bad Phegley was defensively, Flowers was probably worse?

 

If neither are good at catching, I'll go with the younger guy with more upside.

Flowers was better defensively. Phegley's arm may make him better at stopping baserunners eventually, but in 2013, Flowers was without a doubt a stronger defensive catcher. Phegley won a defensive award in AAA, but mostly on his arm - so he's improved over time, but is not yet at Flowers' level.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Did everyone forget that for how bad Phegley was defensively, Flowers was probably worse?

 

If neither are good at catching, I'll go with the younger guy with more upside.

 

I'm not sure that Phegley has a big upside to be honest. In terms of true ceiling, I have no doubt that Flowers has Phegley in that category. The odds of his getting there just aren't very good.

[Dick Allen]

One problem Phegley has, which if your profession is a catcher, can be considered alarming, is actually catching the ball.

Chances are no one will want to ever see Flowers, Phegley or Nieto catch another game for the White Sox once October rolls around, but teams aren't exactly trading away outstanding catchers who hit a ton at the moment.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Dick Allen