Grab a SP now

[Marty34]

Plus the draft pick and plust the fact that you're paying for him now as well so you can't use the price in 2016 to cover teh first 2 years of the contract.

 

The draft pick is meaningless in this because its value can easily be recouped.

[Balta1701]

How was it that Dunn's contract was deemed a good deal for the Sox when it was signed? Every player transaction is unique and at this point in time it would behoove the Sox to shore up the rotation for a moderate investment in order to give themselves more options to improve the team in 2015 and 2016.

The White Sox believed they were an "All-in" team, trying to win at all costs. That means they were in a place where it made sense to pay full price on the FA market to fill in holes because 1-2 wins could have been the difference between missing the playoffs and making the playoffs.

 

If you can convince me the white sox are in a position right now where 1-2 extra wins from Santana puts us in the playoffs, you can make a strong case for that being a good deal.

 

If you can't make that argument, then it is a terrible proposal.

[Balta1701]

The draft pick is meaningless in this because its value can easily be recouped.

By trading the guy who you've already overpaid? Since you're so stressed out about him, we can recoup it just like we can with Adam Dunn right now, right?

[Marty34]

The White Sox believed they were an "All-in" team, trying to win at all costs. That means they were in a place where it made sense to pay full price on the FA market to fill in holes because 1-2 wins could have been the difference between missing the playoffs and making the playoffs.

 

If you can convince me the white sox are in a position right now where 1-2 extra wins from Santana puts us in the playoffs, you can make a strong case for that being a good deal.

 

If you can't make that argument, then it is a terrible proposal.

 

What's the team going to look like in 2016 and what do you do with Sale in 2014?

[ScottyDo]

How was it that Dunn's contract was deemed a good deal for the Sox when it was signed? Every player transaction is unique and at this point in time it would behoove the Sox to shore up the rotation for a moderate investment in order to give themselves more options to improve the team in 2015 and 2016.

It was considered a good deal because he wasn't supposed to play defense in Chicago. His WAR would have been much higher prior to the deal had he been primarily a DH.

 

You can shore up the rotation and give yourself options in much cheaper fashion. I am sorry you are fixated on this mid-to-high price deal but it's not going to happen and I think it'd be a foolish allocation of resources.

[Marty34]

By trading the guy who you've already overpaid? Since you're so stressed out about him, we can recoup it just like we can with Adam Dunn right now, right?

 

No. Deal Quintana if need be or Danks when he makes his come back.

[Balta1701]

What's the team going to look like in 2016 and what do you do with Sale in 2014?

I let Chris Sale go out and see if he can win the first of 5 consecutive cy young awards in 2014, and I have no idea what this team is going to look like in 2016 given that from the roster last season there are about 3-4 guys actually under team control for that long.

[Marty34]

It was considered a good deal because he wasn't supposed to play defense in Chicago. His WAR would have been much higher prior to the deal had he been primarily a DH.

 

You can shore up the rotation and give yourself options in much cheaper fashion. I am sorry you are fixated on this mid-to-high price deal but it's not going to happen and I think it'd be a foolish allocation of resources.

 

Adam Dunn was a bad signing that WAR never alerted anyone to.

[Balta1701]

Adam Dunn was a bad signing that WAR never alerted anyone to.

Ervin Santana would be a bad signing that every single stat you can come up with would alert you to.

[Balta1701]

No. Deal Quintana if need be or Danks when he makes his come back.

But the whole point of signing someone to be a starting pitcher is, as you say..."The starting pitching depth on this team is vastly overrrated".

 

For that to be possible, it relies on the White Sox winding up with a glut of starting pitching depth, to the point where they have more starters than slots again.

 

Why then would we sign an additional pitcher? We don't need it based on the depth that makes your trade make sense.

[Marty34]

I let Chris Sale go out and see if he can win the first of 5 consecutive cy young awards in 2014, and I have no idea what this team is going to look like in 2016 given that from the roster last season there are about 3-4 guys actually under team control for that long.

 

That's a far bigger risk to this franchise than giving up a 2nd round pick. Since we both agree that the Sox have no chance in 2014 it makes no sense to pitch him. Keep Sale healthy for when it matters.

[Balta1701]

That's a far bigger risk to this franchise than giving up a 2nd round pick. Since we both agree that the Sox have no chance in 2014 it makes no sense to pitch him. Keep Sale healthy for when it matters.

Except for the fact that not pitching him kills the work we've done building up his arm the last 2 seasons.

 

I think you should go shoot chris sale in the leg. It would help the white sox's future as much as any of your other ideas.

[Marty34]

Ervin Santana would be a bad signing that every single stat you can come up with would alert you to.

 

After the Dunn signing I have no faith in predictive stats.

[ScottyDo]

Adam Dunn was a bad signing that WAR never alerted anyone to.

Retrospectively, indeed he was. That doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not WAR is a good statistic. Additionally, no one is telling you that value/WAR is a perfect metric for a signing, either. It's just a way to set a benchmark so that people don't throw out random numbers and say "this is good!" or "this is bad!" without any evidence.

 

The draft pick is meaningless in this because its value can easily be recouped.

You keep saying this, but how and when will the value be recouped? Are you saying we can trade Santana for a 2nd rounder or something of equivalent value? Are you saying we will get the pick back when he inevitably hits free agency as a Type B or A? How are you factoring in the very reasonable possibility that neither of those things happen?

[Balta1701]

After the Dunn signing I have no faith in predictive stats.

So you're pulling reasons to sign people out of you a**? Or you're just suggesting the ones that sound the dumbest?

[ScottyDo]

After the Dunn signing I have no faith in predictive stats.

Well, this is just brilliant. Let's not look at the body of evidence as a whole, let's pick a signing that failed and use it to reject predictive stats like WAR even though it's not a predictive stat.

Edited January 26, 2014 by ScottyDo

[Marty34]

So you're pulling reasons to sign people out of you a**? Or you're just suggesting the ones that sound the dumbest?

 

Nothing could be dumber than the ones used to say Dunn was a good signing. I mean talk about go back to the drawing board.

[Marty34]

Well, this is just brilliant. Let's not look at the body of evidence as a whole, let's pick a signing that failed and use it to reject predictive stats like WAR even though it's not a predictive stat.

 

When a formula fails as miserably as it did in Dunn's case it's time to be more than skeptical of the formula.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Marty34

[Balta1701]

When a formula fails as miserably as it did in Dunn's case it's time to be ore than skeptical of the formula.

Like yours did when you advocated Hamilton?

 

And frankly, that's a better comparison than the one you're making right now. A big money signing that makes no sense for the team and would screw them for the next several years even if things went well? Sign Marty Up.

[ScottyDo]

Nothing could be dumber than the ones used to say Dunn was a good signing. I mean talk about go back to the drawing board.

Name a stat you like. I promise it's not a predictive stat either, but you can use it to try and evaluate future outcomes, even though it's imprecise. Do you like OBP? Then you should like the Dunn signing AT THE MOMENT IT WAS SIGNED. Since it failed, you must hate OBP. It's useless, nobody ever talk about it because it's dumb. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD!

[Marty34]

Retrospectively, indeed he was. That doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not WAR is a good statistic. Additionally, no one is telling you that value/WAR is a perfect metric for a signing, either. It's just a way to set a benchmark so that people don't throw out random numbers and say "this is good!" or "this is bad!" without any evidence.

 

 

You keep saying this, but how and when will the value be recouped? Are you saying we can trade Santana for a 2nd rounder or something of equivalent value? Are you saying we will get the pick back when he inevitably hits free agency as a Type B or A? How are you factoring in the very reasonable possibility that neither of those things happen?

 

No. Backfill the rotation with Johnson and Beck and deal Quintana if need be and hope that Hoffman is there at #2. If Johnson shows he can't replace Quintana, deal Danks.

[ScottyDo]

No. Backfill the rotation with Johnson and Beck and deal Quintana if need be and hope that Hoffman is there at #2. If Johnson shows he can't replace Quintana, deal Danks.

You can do the exact same thing with veteran fliers like Paulino, except then you haven't lost the 2nd round pick to begin with, so the marginal increase in value is that much higher. In your scenario, you haven't made up for the value you lost, you just took it off the value of Quintana.

[Marty34]

Name a stat you like. I promise it's not a predictive stat either, but you can use it to try and evaluate future outcomes, even though it's imprecise. Do you like OBP? Then you should like the Dunn signing AT THE MOMENT IT WAS SIGNED. Since it failed, you must hate OBP. It's useless, nobody ever talk about it because it's dumb. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD!

 

I'm just saying stats can't nail down the precise value a contract should be. There are many factors and they differ for each franchise.

[Balta1701]

I'm just saying stats can't nail down the precise value a contract should be. There are many factors and they differ for each franchise.

And the facts that the White Sox are somewhat deep with potential SP contributors, the White Sox don't on paper need an additional SP to start the season, and an expensive SP signing will likely not be the thing that puts the WHite Sox over the top into the playoffs next year all combine to make your idea completely terrible for this franchise.

[Marty34]

You can do the exact same thing with veteran fliers like Paulino, except then you haven't lost the 2nd round pick to begin with, so the marginal increase in value is that much higher. In your scenario, you haven't made up for the value you lost, you just took it off the value of Quintana.

 

Then you can trade Paulino too. He'd have a ton of value because he's cheap. The haul you get for Quintana and Paulino should be greater than what you get in the 2nd round.