Grab a SP now

[GGajewski18]

I mean, Hahn himself said something similar on the Score yesterday. He just said no SPs that cost a draft pick.

 

I'd love to see what Coop can do with Tommy Hanson.

[royoung]

I don't understand why Hahn is stopping right now. I'm thinking in the offseason, Keppinger and Gillaspie sound like very good players and Flowers/Phegs doesn't sound so bad and our pitching staff seems just fine. But that's wishful thinking, fool's gold.

 

To all of you "rebuilding people" please please answer this. My assertion is if we added a real catcher, another starter and preferably a real second baseman we "could" win the division. It's doable to add all three. So tell me ... do you agree with my assertion we are THAT CLOSE to contending now? If the answer as I expect, is yes, then why not go for it? I'd hate to be out of the race in May when we are this close NOW.

 

Not that close sadly. Our rotation is decent but the offense looks pathetic. Eaton, Abreu, Garcia, Davidson, and Phegley/Nieto will most likely make up more than half our lineup and none of them have played a full season in the major leagues. I am bullish on all those players future contributions, but it will take some time and I am OK with that. It's a youth movement, everyone sees it except for the guys arguing for an aging free agent starter. These guys are going to go through slumps and take some knocks but it will make us a better ball club for the future.

Edited January 27, 2014 by southside hitman

[joeynach]

Garza went for less than expected so the timing makes a ton of sense to grab a guy like Santana right now. We would have to give up a comp pick (2nd round), but either A) you keep him and he makes a reasonable $14M-$15M per year. B) You flip him next year and get back a ton more than the 2nd round pick or C) he flops and Jerry can only go to the Bahamas twice this year .

 

But seriously, with a seemingly down market and SP always held at a premium at the trade deadline I think it makes a ton of sense. Of course I'm realistic and realize there is a very slim chance of this actually happening.

 

Yeah I don't understand why there is a need to acquire another FA starter to a multi year contract for a heft sum on a rebuilding team that's probably 2-3 years away from a .500 season. Those IP are more valueable in the rebuild to a young starter or minor league call up to see if we have a potential piece of the rotation for the future. Signing Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, or Ubaldo Jiminez for 4/52 is a waste of money on this roster during this rebuilding time for the organization.

[caulfield12]

There isn't a pitcher available who can get us to the point of contention. Tanaka might have been able to get us there - potentially - but none of the rest of the pitchers available are nearly that high-impact. That moves the whole contention window past this year and makes the urgency for settling the C position less urgent. And there isn't really a great C available anyway, at least not one we can afford to trade for without sacrificing the organizational depth we just worked to achieve for the long-term success of the club. Plus, we've got plenty of question marks on the roster currently, and it makes more sense to get some answers before diving headlong in one direction.

 

 

Hence, no Salty contract.

 

By the time we made it to 2016, he'd definitely be on the decline if he isn't already.

 

That's where you either have your 25-30 year old stud in place OR you go for a "win now" veteran guy on a 1-2 year contract that turns into much longer, like the AJ speculative "buy low" signing in 2005.

[Marty34]

I mean, Hahn himself said something similar on the Score yesterday. He just said no SPs that cost a draft pick.

 

Code for not wanting to spend money. There were pitchers available who did not cost a pick.

[hogan873]

Code for not wanting to spend money. There were pitchers available who did not cost a pick.

Oh, for God's sake, Marty. The Sox were willing to spend $20 million a year for Tanaka. Just because they haven't signed one of these purported great SPs available doesn't mean they're not willing to spend money. If they sign someone, they have to fit into their long term plan. Not the plan that a couple posters on Soxtalk think they should follow.

[Dick Allen]

Laumann was talking about the draft and said this year's draft is better than last year's but still isn't very good. He also said it is high school dominated. So chances are this second round pick that seems to be so valuable, if it ever helps the White Sox win, won't be until next decade.

[Balta1701]

Laumann was talking about the draft and said this year's draft is better than last year's but still isn't very good. He also said it is high school dominated. So chances are this second round pick that seems to be so valuable, if it ever helps the White Sox win, won't be until next decade.

Part of the reason people like Marty can legitimately say that the system is quite weak is that we haven't focused on the longterm for this franchise very much over the past decade, we've focused very strongly on the short term at the expense of the long term.

 

The trick of course is to find a balance that works for you. If you focus too much on the long term, you can wind up like the Cubs and seriously damage your fanbase with 5+ losing seasons. Guys that can do this have jobs for a long time, guys that can't...they need to figure out what they are good at and pull that off.

[witesoxfan]

Laumann was talking about the draft and said this year's draft is better than last year's but still isn't very good. He also said it is high school dominated. So chances are this second round pick that seems to be so valuable, if it ever helps the White Sox win, won't be until next decade.

 

You legitimately think that a high school prospect won't help for 6 years? Meanwhile, people have already (incorrectly) talked about Tyler Danish, a high school pick in the 2nd round, pitching in the majors this year. He could legitimately get a cup of coffee next year and could be a significant piece of the puzzle come 2016. If it's not till 2017, that's realistic too.

 

By all standards, if said high school player is taken in the 2nd, expecting him in the majors by 2018 is completely reasonable. They may bust - that's the nature of the beast. I'd still rather have that plus the allotted money to that slot than counting on anyone past the 10th round to contribute instead.

[ShandyMan]

You legitimately think that a high school prospect won't help for 6 years? Meanwhile, people have already (incorrectly) talked about Tyler Danish, a high school pick in the 2nd round, pitching in the majors this year. He could legitimately get a cup of coffee next year and could be a significant piece of the puzzle come 2016. If it's not till 2017, that's realistic too.

 

By all standards, if said high school player is taken in the 2nd, expecting him in the majors by 2018 is completely reasonable. They may bust - that's the nature of the beast. I'd still rather have that plus the allotted money to that slot than counting on anyone past the 10th round to contribute instead.

 

If we're taking him with the #3 overall pick, he had better not take 6 years....

 

I think 4 is more realistic, probably as you said with his first cup of coffee in 3.5, barring injury or anything unforseen of course.

[Dick Allen]

You legitimately think that a high school prospect won't help for 6 years? Meanwhile, people have already (incorrectly) talked about Tyler Danish, a high school pick in the 2nd round, pitching in the majors this year. He could legitimately get a cup of coffee next year and could be a significant piece of the puzzle come 2016. If it's not till 2017, that's realistic too.

 

By all standards, if said high school player is taken in the 2nd, expecting him in the majors by 2018 is completely reasonable. They may bust - that's the nature of the beast. I'd still rather have that plus the allotted money to that slot than counting on anyone past the 10th round to contribute instead.

Absolutely. I look for at least 4 years in the minors. Rookies generally don't help you win that much. Trace Thompson was a second round high school pick in 2009. Hasn't been declared a bust yet, nor should he. Danish is best case scenerio and even then, you don't know what is going to happen between now and 2016 or 2017.

 

I think if you take a HS player with the pick expected him to be a decent contributor to your major league team before 2020 is nonsense. It may happen, but probably not.

 

For every Mike Trout, there are thousands of Trace Thompsons.

 

Hawkins was drafted 2 years ago in round 1. Do you really think he's 2 years away from helping the White Sox win?

 

The whole premise that this is a 99 loss team so the White Sox shouldn't sign pitchers is nonsense. If you knew how bad they were going to be, would you have thought it was a mistake to sign Peavy? Why would you need a "wrong side of 30" pitcher with a history of injury eating payroll? Because they signed Peavy they now have A. Garcia. That is the point of signing pitchers. The Sox don't have too much pitching. Guys are going to get injured. Guys are going to suck. The more you have, the better you will be. If at the end of the day, you luck out and do have too much pitching, it is very easy to get rid of .

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

Absolutely. I look for at least 4 years in the minors. Rookies generally don't help you win that much. Trace Thompson was a second round high school pick in 2009. Hasn't been declared a bust yet, nor should he. Danish is best case scenerio and even then, you don't know what is going to happen between now and 2016 or 2017.

 

I think if you take a HS player with the pick expected him to be a decent contributor to your major league team before 2020 is nonsense. It may happen, but probably not.

 

For every Mike Trout, there are thousands of Trace Thompsons.

 

Hawkins was drafted 2 years ago in round 1. Do you really think he's 2 years away from helping the White Sox win?

 

The whole premise that this is a 99 loss team so the White Sox shouldn't sign pitchers is nonsense. If you knew how bad they were going to be, would you have thought it was a mistake to sign Peavy? Why would you need a "wrong side of 30" pitcher with a history of injury eating payroll? Because they signed Peavy they now have A. Garcia. That is the point of signing pitchers. The Sox don't have too much pitching. Guys are going to get injured. Guys are going to suck. The more you have, the better you will be. If at the end of the day, you luck out and do have too much pitching, it is very easy to get rid of .

 

I absolutely think that Hawkins could help the Sox in 2 years. It all depends on how well he performs. The fact is, if these guys aren't helping or close to helping the major league team in 4 years, they're basically after thoughts. Do you really think anyone in the White Sox front office views Jared Mitchell as a potential starting player down the road? But he went to college, so he should have been up in 3 years, right?

 

If the high schooler they take in the 1st and/or 2nd round this year isn't up by the end of the decade, odds are pretty good they'll never be up with the White Sox.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'd love to see what Coop can do with Tommy Hanson.

 

 

Agree. Hanson has been really bad. Worth a flyer though.

[witesoxfan]

When Tommy Hanson came up, he was averaging about 92.5 MPH with his fastball. That's down to 89.5.

 

I wouldn't mind if they signed him, but it's for the same reason I wouldn't mind if they signed Jenks - to watch over his rehab in hopes that he can pitch either in July, August, or even next year. Counting on him to do anything is wrong.

[Dick Allen]

I absolutely think that Hawkins could help the Sox in 2 years. It all depends on how well he performs. The fact is, if these guys aren't helping or close to helping the major league team in 4 years, they're basically after thoughts. Do you really think anyone in the White Sox front office views Jared Mitchell as a potential starting player down the road? But he went to college, so he should have been up in 3 years, right?

 

If the high schooler they take in the 1st and/or 2nd round this year isn't up by the end of the decade, odds are pretty good they'll never be up with the White Sox.

2009 MLB draft, there is exactly 1 HS player taken in round 2 with a WAR over 0.7, and they are the only 2 above zero. Nolan Arenado. Billy Hamilton is the 0.7. He might help the Reds this year. Again these are best case scenerios which take you to 2019. 2020 is still reasonable.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

2009 MLB draft, there is exactly 1 HS player taken in round 2 with a WAR over 0.7, and they are the only 2 above zero. Nolan Arenado. Billy Hamilton is the 0.7. He might help the Reds this year. Again these are best case scenerios which take you to 2019. 2020 is still reasonable.

 

And many of those guys have busted. Look at the minor league numbers for Everett Williams, Brooks Pounders, Mychal Givens, Tommy Joseph, Trayce Thompson, Garrett Gould, Tanner Bushue, Bryan Berglund, Steven Matz, Max Walla, Cameron Garfield...whatever, I could go on. I've been quite clear that the bust rates for prospects are quite high. All of those guys have put up pretty terrible numbers, except Steven Matz, who didn't start pitching with the Mets until last year (meaning he didn't pitch in 2009, 2010, or 2011). All the same, many of these guys are still apart of the future plans and could have realistically been called up last year. Holmberg, Murphy, and even Thompson to some extent look like decent prospects, and the Sox drafted 2 of those guys.

 

Yes, it's realistic to see a high school player up within 4 years, and beyond that, you are going to have a pretty good idea of their fate within 4 years. With most of the guys listed above, they are either going to retire in 2 years or become career minor leaguers.

[Dick Allen]

And many of those guys have busted. Look at the minor league numbers for Everett Williams, Brooks Pounders, Mychal Givens, Tommy Joseph, Trayce Thompson, Garrett Gould, Tanner Bushue, Bryan Berglund, Steven Matz, Max Walla, Cameron Garfield...whatever, I could go on. I've been quite clear that the bust rates for prospects are quite high. All of those guys have put up pretty terrible numbers, except Steven Matz, who didn't start pitching with the Mets until last year (meaning he didn't pitch in 2009, 2010, or 2011). All the same, many of these guys are still apart of the future plans and could have realistically been called up last year. Holmberg, Murphy, and even Thompson to some extent look like decent prospects, and the Sox drafted 2 of those guys.

 

Yes, it's realistic to see a high school player up within 4 years, and beyond that, you are going to have a pretty good idea of their fate within 4 years. With most of the guys listed above, they are either going to retire in 2 years or become career minor leaguers.

So 2 years from now, a guy who supposedly was too young for high A ball last season, should be ready to contribute to winning in the major leagues or he basically can be considered a career minor leaguer?

 

That's crazy. As I stated, maybe they make it to the major leagues, but contributing to winning is a little different. 2020 I think is beyond fair.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

So 2 years from now, a guy who supposedly was too young for high A ball last season, should be ready to contribute to winning in the major leagues or he basically can be considered a career minor leaguer?

 

That's crazy. As I stated, maybe they make it to the major leagues, but contributing to winning is a little different. 2020 I think is beyond fair.

 

If Courtney Hawkins is up for a cup of coffee in 2 years, you would honestly be surprised?

 

Being a significant contributor in 4 years may be a bit much, but you are going to know within 4 years how you view a prospect and expecting a cup of coffee during that time frame is not unrealistic for a 2nd round pick that is contributing. There's obviously gray area, but do you think the Dodgers are really going to be expecting Garret Gould to do anything at this point?

[royoung]

Absolutely. I look for at least 4 years in the minors. Rookies generally don't help you win that much. Trace Thompson was a second round high school pick in 2009. Hasn't been declared a bust yet, nor should he. Danish is best case scenerio and even then, you don't know what is going to happen between now and 2016 or 2017.

 

I think if you take a HS player with the pick expected him to be a decent contributor to your major league team before 2020 is nonsense. It may happen, but probably not.

 

For every Mike Trout, there are thousands of Trace Thompsons.

 

Hawkins was drafted 2 years ago in round 1. Do you really think he's 2 years away from helping the White Sox win?

 

The whole premise that this is a 99 loss team so the White Sox shouldn't sign pitchers is nonsense. If you knew how bad they were going to be, would you have thought it was a mistake to sign Peavy? Why would you need a "wrong side of 30" pitcher with a history of injury eating payroll? Because they signed Peavy they now have A. Garcia. That is the point of signing pitchers. The Sox don't have too much pitching. Guys are going to get injured. Guys are going to suck. The more you have, the better you will be. If at the end of the day, you luck out and do have too much pitching, it is very easy to get rid of .

 

 

It's a difficult situation for scouts around draft time I am sure. Let's say we are looking at two players, one is more polished and has a perfect world ETA of 2016, and a very good chance of getting a cup of coffee, a decent chance of being an average major league regular. The other player is less polished, has a ETA of 2018, but has a chance of being an all-star caliber player, but a higher bust risk. Who do you pick? It's a franchise philosophy, the White Sox took the low ceiling guys for years and years and we all complained bitterly. Now the Sox are swinging for the fences and we aren't willing to be patient? Bulls***. Draft picks are lottery tickets, you draft them, stash them, and hope you scout well enough to hit on enough to keep your ball club competitive and cheap. Refusing to play isn't the answer.

 

I keep hearing the Peavy comparisons and they make no sense. He didn't cost us a pick and the Sox were coming off a season where we finished three games behind Detroit. Three games is a gap that can be made up by a free agent acquisition. We finished THIRTY games behind Detroit last year. If your plan is to just sign a starter to flip him, the odds of Santana or Jimenez exceeding the value of a contract in six months to a year that literally no other club in baseball is willing to give them right now is very low. Even less likely that they will exceed the contract so much so that any team would be willing to give us anything close to be as valuable as the #43 overall pick. And that is ignoring the shortsighted financial and roster implications as well.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

If Courtney Hawkins is up for a cup of coffee in 2 years, you would honestly be surprised?

 

Being a significant contributor in 4 years may be a bit much, but you are going to know within 4 years how you view a prospect and expecting a cup of coffee during that time frame is not unrealistic for a 2nd round pick that is contributing. There's obviously gray area, but do you think the Dodgers are really going to be expecting Garret Gould to do anything at this point?

A "cup of coffee" is not contributing to winning. I stated 2020 would be when you could reasonably expect a HS kid taken in this draft to contribute to winning. You are basically saying I'm correct but arguing my statement. It is also a reason to consider flipping a guy like Santana or Jimenez, 2nd round pick be damned. Someone is always looking for pitching at the deadline. Getting an established prospect cuts out a lot of development time and you have a much better idea whether or not their shot is legit. Sure, things can go wrong. But the loss of the 2nd round pick really, when you look at the big picture, isn't all that significant. If Santana or Jimenez pitched like they did in 2013, and signed contracts that look a lot like what Garza got, in July, you could probably get at least some team's top 5 prospect. Certainly you would trade the second round pick right now if it were allowed, for something like that.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

It's a difficult situation for scouts around draft time I am sure. Let's say we are looking at two players, one is more polished and has a perfect world ETA of 2016, and a very good chance of getting a cup of coffee, a decent chance of being an average major league regular. The other player is less polished, has a ETA of 2018, but has a chance of being an all-star caliber player, but a higher bust risk. Who do you pick? It's a franchise philosophy, the White Sox took the low ceiling guys for years and years and we all complained bitterly. Now the Sox are swinging for the fences and we aren't willing to be patient? Bulls***. Draft picks are lottery tickets, you draft them, stash them, and hope you scout well enough to hit on enough to keep your ball club competitive and cheap. Refusing to play isn't the answer.

 

I keep hearing the Peavy comparisons and they make no sense. He didn't cost us a pick and the Sox were coming off a season where we finished three games behind Detroit. Three games is a gap that can be made up by a free agent acquisition. We finished THIRTY games behind Detroit last year. If your plan is to just sign a starter to flip him, the odds of Santana or Jimenez exceeding the value of a contract in six months to a year that literally no other club in baseball is willing to give them right now is very low. Even less likely that they will exceed the contract so much so that any team would be willing to give us anything close to be as valuable as the #43 overall pick. And that is ignoring the shortsighted financial and roster implications as well.

With Peavy, if you knew the Sox would not contend in 2013 and lose close to 100 games, Hahn would have been torched for signing Peavy. That is the point. The reason given for not signing a pitcher now is the Sox realistically won't contend, and give guys like Rienzo a shot. Well, they didn't contend in 2013, but signing a FA pitcher paid of with a prospect.

[ScottyDo]

With Peavy, if you knew the Sox would not contend in 2013 and lose close to 100 games, Hahn would have been torched for signing Peavy. That is the point. The reason given for not signing a pitcher now is the Sox realistically won't contend, and give guys like Rienzo a shot. Well, they didn't contend in 2013, but signing a FA pitcher paid of with a prospect.

That FA pitcher didn't cost anything but money. It's different.

[Eminor3rd]

What are the Twins doing right now?

 

In a game that always revolves around pitching, and in an era where pitching has become even more dominant (moreso than it has been for probably 25 years or more) it makes a f***ing TON of sense to create a logjam of SP. Personally I think Santana is too scatterbrained and Floydish to commit big money to, but current 4th starter money? Over 3 years? s*** sign me the f*** up please. Do it now.

 

We don't want to just throw our young guys into the fire without making them earn it. Not only is a Sale-Santana-Quintana-Johnson-Danks rotation very good and balanced, it allows the Sox to work in other pieces as they need them and as those guys are ready. Beck can come in when he's 100% ready, and it can be at the expense of Danks or Santana. If Paulino can come back in the pen or as a spot starter, or take over for Johnson should be struggle and need to be optioned back to Charlotte for a little while. There's a TON of positives having too much pitching, and a TON of negatives when you don't have enough.

 

Right now the Sox are logjamming their bullpen prospects. Great. Keep it up, and when the org believes 100% that Bassit and/or Petricka are ready to step in and get the job done, there goes Lindstrom/Belisario/etc.

 

Also that second round pick is a risk anyway. It's not like whoever we take there is definitely going to be a Major League player. There's a lot of development time to be expected. I would say it is far likelier that Santana would be good enough to spin off after 1-2 years at a value greater than whatever player the Royals would take with our pick than it would be that we pick someone there who either makes it as a quality MLB player OR brings back a quality MLB player through trade.

 

The whole point of this thing is to add as much value in new resources as possible while depleting the organization's resources as little as possible. Taking advantage of the late January & February free agents is one way of doing that, especially when it involves pitching. 2nd round pick? For 3 years $40M that's a p****hair over $13M per and no way should we not do that.

 

The Twins are aggressively throwing any talent they can find into their organization because they haven't had ANY pitching talent ANYWHERE in the system for years. This is very different than the White Sox. Also, I'm not sure I like those signings anyway.

 

I agree the young guys have to earn it. But Ervin Santana for 4 years precludes them from earning it for at least two of those years, probably 3. Beck breaking out won't send Santana to the bullpen @ $15m a year.

[Eminor3rd]

That FA pitcher didn't cost anything but money. It's different.

 

Not to mention it was an incredibly team-friendly and thus tradeable deal.

[royoung]

With Peavy, if you knew the Sox would not contend in 2013 and lose close to 100 games, Hahn would have been torched for signing Peavy. That is the point. The reason given for not signing a pitcher now is the Sox realistically won't contend, and give guys like Rienzo a shot. Well, they didn't contend in 2013, but signing a FA pitcher paid of with a prospect.

 

Peavy wanted to be here and frankly gave us a pretty fair deal because he thought we were going to contend. Peavy is a superior pitcher to Santana or Jimenez and we signed him for comparable annual salary and less years.