Grab a SP now

[Eminor3rd]

Our young guys need innings this year, even if it's at the cost of winning. There are a TON of new faces that will be on the field, and we need time to see what we have and what we don't have. This is the harsh reality of being bad. If it looks like we have a core and we need a FA pitcher, we can sign next year's Ervin Santana at the same cost. There's nothing special about Ervin Santana at the absolute maximum cost of dead-cat-bounce free agent money + draft pick loss.

 

I know we've had a great offseason, but don't confuse that with a team that should be expected to win. There are a ton of question marks on this roster. It's not time to overspend for 2-3 fWAR starters.

[Eminor3rd]

Dick Allen -- I don't understand why you so frequently seem to be caught up in arguing that it takes a long time for prospects to develop. That doesn't change the fact that an early round draft pick is an asset and, therefore, an additional cost to sign a DP-compensated FA. That the pick won't likely be on the ML roster within 2 years is irrelevant. The franchise STILL needs good prospects in the system to be developed or traded.

[caulfield12]

Still waiting.

 

Other than the unique circumstances of Jake Peavy that aren't applicable with any free agent pitcher on the current market, there hasn't been a single supporting example of a veteran free agent pitcher signed from outside his previous organization at/over the age of 30 for a contract of 3+ years and $40+ million dollars where that team ended up "winning" the deal by flipping him later on.

 

The odds are greater for it to blow up in their faces than for it to amount to even the quality of a 2nd round draft pick...plus you've wasted all that money and a spot in the rotation that could have been put to better use.

 

 

IF THE WHITE SOX WIN 78-84 GAMES NEXT YEAR, I DARE SAY THAT NO POSTER AT SOXTALK WOULD BE AGAINST ADDING A VETERAN PITCHER IF ONE IS NEEDED TO PUSH THEM INTO PLAYOFF CONTENTION (AND ASSUMING BECK/RIENZO/SNODGRESS/BASSITT ETC. ALL FALL FLAT ON THEIR FACES). BUT NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO DO IT. THE END.

 

Because at that point we won't have the money for a young stud catcher (if we overpay another veteran pitcher) or we'll have to trade Quintana to do it, which will simply open up one hole in the dike to plug up another one.

 

Our best best still remains getting the two best collegiate arms we can scout in 2014 and with the #5-10 draft pick in 2015. We did it before with Sale, the Cardinals with Wacha. Far from impossible.

Edited January 27, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Dick Allen -- I don't understand why you so frequently seem to be caught up in arguing that it takes a long time for prospects to develop. That doesn't change the fact that an early round draft pick is an asset and, therefore, an additional cost to sign a DP-compensated FA. That the pick won't likely be on the ML roster within 2 years is irrelevant. The franchise STILL needs good prospects in the system to be developed or traded.

Again, the guys signed can be flipped for already developed players, or create an opportunity to flip someone else for players who are farther down the road in their development.

 

Unless you want a 7 or 8 year rebuild, it is something that needs to be considered. Would you rather have A. Garcia or a second round pick?

[Dick Allen]

Still waiting.

 

Other than the unique circumstances of Jake Peavy that aren't applicable with any free agent pitcher on the current market, there hasn't been a single supporting example of a veteran free agent pitcher signed from outside his previous organization at/over the age of 30 for a contract of 3+ years and $40+ million dollars where that team ended up "winning" the deal by flipping him later on.

 

The odds are greater for it to blow up in their faces than for it to amount to even the quality of a 2nd round draft pick...plus you've wasted all that money and a spot in the rotation that could have been put to better use.

 

 

IF THE WHITE SOX WIN 78-84 GAMES NEXT YEAR, I DARE SAY THAT NO POSTER AT SOXTALK WOULD BE AGAINST ADDING A VETERAN PITCHER IF ONE IS NEEDED TO PUSH THEM INTO PLAYOFF CONTENTION (AND ASSUMING BECK/RIENZO/SNODGRESS/BASSITT ETC. ALL FALL FLAT ON THEIR FACES). BUT NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO DO IT. THE END.

 

Because at that point we won't have the money for a young stud catcher (if we overpay another veteran pitcher) or we'll have to trade Quintana to do it, which will simply open up one hole in the dike to plug up another one.

 

Our best best still remains getting the two best collegiate arms we can scout in 2014 and with the #5-10 draft pick in 2015. We did it before with Sale, the Cardinals with Wacha. Far from impossible.

Non contending teams have flipped pitchers for prospects at the trade deadline for years. The Sox have plenty of money. They were going to pay Tanaka over $20 million a year and pay his former team $20 million.

[caulfield12]

Dick Allen -- I don't understand why you so frequently seem to be caught up in arguing that it takes a long time for prospects to develop. That doesn't change the fact that an early round draft pick is an asset and, therefore, an additional cost to sign a DP-compensated FA. That the pick won't likely be on the ML roster within 2 years is irrelevant. The franchise STILL needs good prospects in the system to be developed or traded.

 

Which goes back to why the 2000-2008 was such a good run for the White Sox.

 

We turned many of those young assets into 27-33 year old veteran contributors on the major league roster and won a World Series.

 

That strategy worked until Kenny Williams hit a string of bad trades (both Swisher moves, Javy to the Braves, Hudson/Jackson and then dumping Jackson to get rid of Teahen) and of course Viciedo and Dunn didn't contribute as much as expected and Danks got hurt.

 

It still almost was enough to defeat a superior Tigers team in 2012. In 2010, if we'd kept Thome, we'd arguably have won that ALCD title as well. We weren't that far off until last year.

 

And of course it goes back to the trade that turned the balance in the AL Central for good, Miguel Cabrera for Cameron Maybin and A. Miller, both huge disappointments for the Marlins. By that time, the depth in our system had been depleted too much and was nearing a crash.

Edited January 27, 2014 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Again, the guys signed can be flipped for already developed players, or create an opportunity to flip someone else for players who are farther down the road in their development.

 

Unless you want a 7 or 8 year rebuild, it is something that needs to be considered. Would you rather have A. Garcia or a second round pick?

 

I would argue that in the current market, the odds heavily favor the 3rd pick of the second round being of significantly higher quality than the return for Ervin Santana (or similar pitcher) in 2-3 years. Jake Peavy is/was much better than Santana, was on a much friendlier deal than what we can expect Santana to get, and was traded in a market absolutely starved for good starting pitching, which is a situation that is possible for a future Santana deal, but comparatively unlikely to occur.

[witesoxfan]

Again, the guys signed can be flipped for already developed players, or create an opportunity to flip someone else for players who are farther down the road in their development.

 

Unless you want a 7 or 8 year rebuild, it is something that needs to be considered. Would you rather have A. Garcia or a second round pick?

 

This is a loaded question and is not accurate at all. You aren't going to sign Jimenez or Santana to a 2 year deal worth $29 million, it's not reasonable to expect them to be as valuable as Jake Peavy, and it's not reasonable to expect the Sox to trade them.

 

You are essentially saying that Jimenez/Santana are equal to Peavy by stating this. If they come out and put up ERAs over 5 - which they are both fully capable of doing - then you are looking at a $15 mill a year albatross of a contract plus no 2nd round pick plus no prospect coming back versus $15 million a year that is NOT spent plus a 2nd round pick.

 

State it like it is - the possibility of a acquiring a prospect while still spending money and the loss of a 2nd round pick versus the guarantee of acquiring a prospect in the 2nd round plus the money not spent. Personally, I am taking the latter option, especially given the amount of pitching the Sox have that is MLB caliber at the moment.

[caulfield12]

Non contending teams have flipped pitchers for prospects at the trade deadline for years. The Sox have plenty of money. They were going to pay Tanaka over $20 million a year and pay his former team $20 million.

 

 

And signing Tanaka made sense in both the long and short-term. Surely, most will agree with that, even though the risk was huge.

 

 

Those pitchers you're referring to (and I've yet to see a single name mentioned other than Jake Peavy) were undoubtedly in the last or 2nd to last years of their deals, were they not?

 

How many examples have veteran pitchers signed to 4 year deals been traded away in the first two for a better return? Pitchers come to the White Sox to work specifically with Don Cooper because he's one of the best pitching coaches in the business and has gotten results from numerous guys...the White Sox have almost never brought in a pitcher with the primary idea being to trade him in the future unless it was someone on waivers or at almost no cost like a Loaiza or Santos (and now Paulino).

 

There are plenty where pitchers are DUMPED, like Contreras for Loaiza, or Javy for Chris Young, but if Chris Young is the best possible example we can come up with, then that's not the type of impact that will push us into the playoffs for 2-3 years in a row.

 

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

I would argue that in the current market, the odds heavily favor the 3rd pick of the second round being of significantly higher quality than the return for Ervin Santana (or similar pitcher) in 2-3 years. Jake Peavy is/was much better than Santana, was on a much friendlier deal than what we can expect Santana to get, and was traded in a market absolutely starved for good starting pitching, which is a situation that is possible for a future Santana deal, but comparatively unlikely to occur.

Rumor has it Santana and Jimenez are going for less than Garza. Peavy was $29.5 million for 2 years. I always liked Peavy, but there are plenty of detractors on this site.

 

Right now with the comp picks and competitive balance picks, that pick is #43 in what the Sox head scout says is not a good draft, top heavy with HS players.

 

If Santana and Jimenez pitch the first half like they pitched in 2013, there would be a lot more attractive young players available for them than the #43 pick.

[caulfield12]

This is a loaded question and is not accurate at all. You aren't going to sign Jimenez or Santana to a 2 year deal worth $29 million, it's not reasonable to expect them to be as valuable as Jake Peavy, and it's not reasonable to expect the Sox to trade them.

 

You are essentially saying that Jimenez/Santana are equal to Peavy by stating this. If they come out and put up ERAs over 5 - which they are both fully capable of doing - then you are looking at a $15 mill a year albatross of a contract plus no 2nd round pick plus no prospect coming back versus $15 million a year that is NOT spent plus a 2nd round pick.

 

State it like it is - the possibility of a acquiring a prospect while still spending money and the loss of a 2nd round pick versus the guarantee of acquiring a prospect in the 2nd round plus the money not spent. Personally, I am taking the latter option, especially given the amount of pitching the Sox have that is MLB caliber at the moment.

 

 

It's a false argument because of the unique circumstances of the Peavy signing.

 

Of course, everyone's going to make that deal to bring in the #73 prospect or whatever in baseball who also happens to play the same position of the veteran RFer you've just traded. You make that trade every time if you're facing a rebuilding situation and are trying to get young at the same time.

 

It will be interesting to see how long it takes and at what cost the Cubs have to absorb in any future Edwin Jackson deal, after they spent all that money dumping Soriano/Zambrano/Marmol.

 

For every Jake Peavy mention, Edwin Jackson can just as easily be cited.

 

We've spent four years now trying to get rid of Dunn, I can just imagine all the complaints about waiting another 3 years to trade Jackson...NOT TO MENTION the fact that there's absolutely ZERO guarantee that John Danks will EVER return to form and that won't end up being yet another sunk cost.

Edited January 27, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Rumor has it Santana and Jimenez are going for less than Garza. Peavy was $29.5 million for 2 years. I always liked Peavy, but there are plenty of detractors on this site.

 

Right now with the comp picks and competitive balance picks, that pick is #43 in what the Sox head scout says is not a good draft, top heavy with HS players.

 

If Santana and Jimenez pitch the first half like they pitched in 2013, there would be a lot more attractive young players available for them than the #43 pick.

 

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

[Dick Allen]

And signing Tanaka made sense in both the long and short-term. Surely, most will agree with that, even though the risk was huge.

 

 

Those pitchers you're referring to (and I've yet to see a single name mentioned other than Jake Peavy) were undoubtedly in the last or 2nd to last years of their deals, were they not?

 

How many examples have veteran pitchers signed to 4 year deals been traded away in the first two for a better return? Pitchers come to the White Sox to work specifically with Don Cooper because he's one of the best pitching coaches in the business and has gotten results from numerous guys...the White Sox have almost never brought in a pitcher with the primary idea being to trade him in the future unless it was someone on waivers or at almost no cost like a Loaiza or Santos (and now Paulino).

 

There are plenty where pitchers are DUMPED, like Contreras for Loaiza, or Javy for Chris Young, but if Chris Young is the best possible example we can come up with, then that's not the type of impact that will push us into the playoffs for 2-3 years in a row.

What is the difference if they were signed now or 2 years ago. Contending teams trade for pitching every year. If the Sox have excess and aren't contending, they can reap the rewards and shorten their rebuild even if they surrender their second round pick. The point is moot. Hahn said he isn't letting go of the pick, but if there is another veteran like a Maholm who can be had for a decent price, he should look at it seriously with the idea that if the team isn't winning, it will improve inventory to deal from.

[Eminor3rd]

Rumor has it Santana and Jimenez are going for less than Garza. Peavy was $29.5 million for 2 years. I always liked Peavy, but there are plenty of detractors on this site.

 

Right now with the comp picks and competitive balance picks, that pick is #43 in what the Sox head scout says is not a good draft, top heavy with HS players.

 

If Santana and Jimenez pitch the first half like they pitched in 2013, there would be a lot more attractive young players available for them than the #43 pick.

 

Neither of those guys would be traded half a season into a 4 year deal. Most likely, they wouldn't be traded until the third or fourth year. You're making a huge gamble on two extremely inconsistent players being good enough in their mid-30s to command a top-50 draft pick caliber player when you already have that bird in your hand. Maybe you could bring something better in the best case scenario, but how much better? Most likely you get something even or worse. There's very little upside to justify a gamble against poor odds.

[hogan873]

Again, the guys signed can be flipped for already developed players, or create an opportunity to flip someone else for players who are farther down the road in their development.

 

Unless you want a 7 or 8 year rebuild, it is something that needs to be considered. Would you rather have A. Garcia or a second round pick?

You're comparing what did happen to what could happen...if you were able to sign one of those available SPs to a deal as friendly as Peavy's and said pitcher performed as well as Peavy. First, they most likely wouldn's be able to sign one of those guys to a team-friendly deal. Second, chances are they wouldn't perform as well as Peavy. Now the Sox are stuck with an expensive, underperfoming pitcher who isn't very tradeable.

[caulfield12]

Rumor has it Santana and Jimenez are going for less than Garza. Peavy was $29.5 million for 2 years. I always liked Peavy, but there are plenty of detractors on this site.

 

Right now with the comp picks and competitive balance picks, that pick is #43 in what the Sox head scout says is not a good draft, top heavy with HS players.

 

If Santana and Jimenez pitch the first half like they pitched in 2013, there would be a lot more attractive young players available for them than the #43 pick.

 

 

IF FRANCISCO LIRIANO PITCHED FOR THE WHITE SOX IN 2012 LIKE HE DID FOR THE PIRATES IN 2013, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN THE AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES.

 

IF ADAM DUNN JUST HIT LIKE HE DID FOR EIGHT CONSECUTIVE YEARS, WE WOULDN'T BE HAVING THIS DISCUSSION.

 

IF CARLOS QUENTIN DIDN'T GET HURT IN 2008....

 

IF WE SIGNED JOSH HAMILTON...

 

IF IF IF...is a risk that Rick Hahn isn't willing to take when he's set up things so well for this assessment/work in progress season.

Edited January 27, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez

Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez

 

Peavy has always been a better pitcher than those two. He cost less both in terms of finances (2 years, $29.5 mill versus 4 years, $50 million) and assets (no draft pick versus 2nd round pick).

Edited January 27, 2014 by witesoxfan

[caulfield12]

What is the difference if they were signed now or 2 years ago. Contending teams trade for pitching every year. If the Sox have excess and aren't contending, they can reap the rewards and shorten their rebuild even if they surrender their second round pick. The point is moot. Hahn said he isn't letting go of the pick, but if there is another veteran like a Maholm who can be had for a decent price, he should look at it seriously with the idea that if the team isn't winning, it will improve inventory to deal from.

 

 

What do you think drafting a collegiate pitcher at #3 next year will do, and at #5-10 in 2015?

 

They'll make some of our pitching depth expendable, to the point where we can leverage Quintana for a catcher or Johnson or Beck or someone else to fill a hole in the starting line-up without missing a beat. Or at the very least clear John Danks from the payroll with a much cheaper but equally effective option replacing him, allowing those dollars to be reallocated.

 

What do you think trading Alexei Ramirez, DeAza, Danks (possibly), Viciedo (possibly), Dunn, Gillaspie, Keppinger, Nate Jones, Belisario, Downs, Paulino and Lindstrom will get you?

[Marty34]

Like it or not the Sox have assembled much of their core to go around Chris Sale already. A second round pick does little to maximize the franchises best asset Chris Sale and his contract. That second round pick maybe useful to a post-Sale White Sox.

[Eminor3rd]

Peavy has always been a better pitcher than those two. He cost less both in terms of finances (2 years, $29.5 mill versus 4 years, $50 million) and assets (no draft pick versus 2nd round pick).

 

Nice, thanks for illustrating that. The Peavy deal is a poor comparison.

 

Not only was Peavy substantially more valuable, but we have lots of reason to believe that the Tigers were anxious to get rid of Garcia, giving us an opportunity to acquire a higher grade of talent than was typical. Don't forget that it looked like we were keeping Peavy until the Tigers jumped in, and the conditions were absolutely RIPE to trade Peavy.

[Eminor3rd]

Like it or not the Sox have assembled much of their core to go around Chris Sale already. A second round pick does little to maximize the franchises best asset Chris Sale and his contract. That second round pick maybe useful to a post-Sale White Sox.

 

Absolutely not true at all. If that pick can be used to bolster the present, it will be traded. If not, it'll be developed for the post-Sale Sox. It's like a stock option in that the risk is mitigated.

[witesoxfan]

Like it or not the Sox have assembled much of their core to go around Chris Sale already. A second round pick does little to maximize the franchises best asset Chris Sale and his contract. That second round pick maybe useful to a post-Sale White Sox.

 

This method of thinking makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. "He probably won't help so just get rid of it." That's absurd.

 

FWIW, Addison Reed was drafted in the 3rd round, make a cup of coffee appearance the next year, and was the closer about 24 months later. Yes, he was a reliever, but the fact remains the same. That pick can be extremely valuable for the White Sox in the very near future.

[caulfield12]

Like it or not the Sox have assembled much of their core to go around Chris Sale already. A second round pick does little to maximize the franchises best asset Chris Sale and his contract. That second round pick maybe useful to a post-Sale White Sox.

 

 

This makes absolutely zero sense.

 

The White Sox control his rights through 2019.

 

They'll have him in his prime years of 2016-2017-2018-2019 (just turning 27-28-29-30 at the beginning of each season) when the team's legitimately ready to make a run again.

 

 

In fact, they'll never pay him more per season than Jimenez/Erwin Santana probably are going to receive well past their pitching primes.

[Eminor3rd]

This method of thinking makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. "He probably won't help so just get rid of it." That's absurd.

 

FWIW, Addison Reed was drafted in the 3rd round, make a cup of coffee appearance the next year, and was the closer about 24 months later. Yes, he was a reliever, but the fact remains the same. That pick can be extremely valuable for the White Sox in the very near future.

 

...and netted a top 100 prospect when traded almost entirely because of his youth and cost-controllability. Pre free agency assets are worth SO much more than mid-30's players -- it's just the reality of the market today. If you want something to trade, make it a high draft pick, not a declining pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

IF FRANCISCO LIRIANO PITCHED FOR THE WHITE SOX IN 2012 LIKE HE DID FOR THE PIRATES IN 2013, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN THE AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES.

 

IF ADAM DUNN JUST HIT LIKE HE DID FOR EIGHT CONSECUTIVE YEARS, WE WOULDN'T BE HAVING THIS DISCUSSION.

 

IF CARLOS QUENTIN DIDN'T GET HURT IN 2008....

 

IF WE SIGNED JOSH HAMILTON...

 

IF IF IF...is a risk that Rick Hahn isn't willing to take when he's set up things so well for this assessment/work in progress season.

If is the risk every team takes every year.