Grab a SP now

[Eminor3rd]

If is the risk every team takes every year.

 

But there remains substantial value in mitigating risk.

[witesoxfan]

If is the risk every team takes every year.

 

If you don't have to, why would you? These are far riskier than others too for so many reasons.

[southsider2k5]

Neither of those guys would be traded half a season into a 4 year deal. Most likely, they wouldn't be traded until the third or fourth year. You're making a huge gamble on two extremely inconsistent players being good enough in their mid-30s to command a top-50 draft pick caliber player when you already have that bird in your hand. Maybe you could bring something better in the best case scenario, but how much better? Most likely you get something even or worse. There's very little upside to justify a gamble against poor odds.

 

I'd be curious the last time this actually happened to anyone in MLB. I sure can't recall it.

[Dick Allen]

If you don't have to, why would you? These are far riskier than others too for so many reasons.

If you want to build a successful organization, you must take risks. If you want to speed up the process, you must take risks.

 

In the grand scheme of things, with their prices dropping, the risk is far less than risks they have already assumed or were willing to take.

[Dick Allen]

I'd be curious the last time this actually happened to anyone in MLB. I sure can't recall it.

It isn't illegal. In fact, while sometimes it may be a red flag for your organization, the way the compensation works now, you are actually doing these guys a favor even if you trade them.

[Dick Allen]

Is the Marlins minor league system be as good, worse or the same by signing Buehrle, Reyes et al. and trading them away?

[southsider2k5]

It isn't illegal. In fact, while sometimes it may be a red flag for your organization, the way the compensation works now, you are actually doing these guys a favor even if you trade them.

 

 

Is the Marlins minor league system be as good, worse or the same by signing Buehrle, Reyes et al. and trading them away?

 

Good call. Let's become the Marlins. We'll burn our bridges with free agents and fans alike by screwing over people who sign with us. It isn't enough to be the second team in Chicago, let's burn it all down.

[Balta1701]

I'd be curious the last time this actually happened to anyone in MLB. I sure can't recall it.

Very few teams leave themselves the ability to take on >$7 million in salary commitments at the trading deadline, and if they do, they aren't looking to take on guys who they're obligated to pay for multiple years down the road. We heard that a whole lot with Peavy last year, that even though his next year was affordable and reasonable, teams outside the largest markets were really hesitant to commit the payroll for an additional season.

 

We heard it enough that it actually surprised me how many teams seemed to take themselves out of the running at the deadline because they didn't want to pay the extra year.

[Dick Allen]

Good call. Let's become the Marlins. We'll burn our bridges with free agents and fans alike by screwing over people who sign with us. It isn't enough to be the second team in Chicago, let's burn it all down.

As I stated, you wouldn't be burning bridges, because signing these guys for multiyears with draft pick compensation is doing them a solid at this point.

 

The White Sox aren't in danger of becoming the Marlins, but if you want to be ultra conservative, like is being suggested on this board, being the Marlins might be the best case scenerio for what you will become.

 

I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team.

[Dick Allen]

Very few teams leave themselves the ability to take on >$7 million in salary commitments at the trading deadline, and if they do, they aren't looking to take on guys who they're obligated to pay for multiple years down the road. We heard that a whole lot with Peavy last year, that even though his next year was affordable and reasonable, teams outside the largest markets were really hesitant to commit the payroll for an additional season.

 

We heard it enough that it actually surprised me how many teams seemed to take themselves out of the running at the deadline because they didn't want to pay the extra year.

The problem was Jake has a decent injury history, and was hurt before the deadline last season. The Sox still found a taker, and isn't there a $15 million extra year on his deal if he gets to a certain innings level this year?

[Dick Allen]

Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez

Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez

 

Peavy has always been a better pitcher than those two. He cost less both in terms of finances (2 years, $29.5 mill versus 4 years, $50 million) and assets (no draft pick versus 2nd round pick).

Peavy has not always been better. He had a stretch of 3 years he hardly pitched 300 innings.

 

Santana has been really good 4 of the past 6 seasons:

 

2008 3.49 ERA 219 IP

2009 5.03 ERA 139 IP

2010 3.92 ERA 222 IP

2011 3.38 ERA 228 IP

2012 5.16 ERA 178 IP

2013 3.24 ERA 211 IP

 

and you are saying this is better?

 

2008 2.85 ERA 173 IP

2009 3.45 ERA 101 IP

2010 4.63 ERA 107 IP

2011 4.92 ERA 111 IP

2012 3.37 ERA 219 IP

2013 4.17 ERA 144 IP

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

As I stated, you wouldn't be burning bridges, because signing these guys for multiyears with draft pick compensation is doing them a solid at this point.

 

The White Sox aren't in danger of becoming the Marlins, but if you want to be ultra conservative, like is being suggested on this board, being the Marlins might be the best case scenerio for what you will become.

I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team.

 

lol, you mean increasing the talent level the way you want it to be increased. It is pretty obvious what both Rick Hahn, and us peons here at Soxtalk are talking about, which is adding to the talent level of the organization, only their plan is to do it for a fraction of the price that you and Marty are talking about.

 

Though I do have to say this, I remember people laughing at Kenny Williams years ago when he was asked about the state of the farm system, he stated that he could have a good farm system anytime he wanted to. Since the organization decided to go that route, it is pretty amazing how much young talent they have been able to bring in here, without really touching the teams core.

[Dick Allen]

lol, you mean increasing the talent level the way you want it to be increased. It is pretty obvious what both Rick Hahn, and us peons here at Soxtalk are talking about, which is adding to the talent level of the organization, only their plan is to do it for a fraction of the price that you and Marty are talking about.

 

Though I do have to say this, I remember people laughing at Kenny Williams years ago when he was asked about the state of the farm system, he stated that he could have a good farm system anytime he wanted to. Since the organization decided to go that route, it is pretty amazing how much young talent they have been able to bring in here, without really touching the teams core.

They minor league talent level unfortunately still pales in comparision to other teams. And I know KW can do no wrong in your book, but unless he tried to make it fair to other teams, he drafted horribly from 2001-2007. In my BP, it stated that the White Sox drafted the lowest cumulative WAR for those years of any team except the Brewers. That included the players KW traded away.So unless he was drafting bad players on purpose, his statement is incorrect. And that didn't even get to the badness his buddy Wilder was feeding him.

 

If KW could have a good farm system any time he wanted, how come it isn't considered good right now? He doesn't want one?

 

The fact is the guys they have brought in aren't ranked very much higher or in some cases lower than guys they have had in the system before and failed. Maybe all of these guys will work out. But I think even you would admit that probably isn't going to happen.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

They minor league talent level unfortunately still pales in comparision to other teams. And I know KW can do no wrong in your book, but unless he tried to make it fair to other teams, he drafted horribly from 2001-2007. In my BP, it stated that the White Sox drafted the lowest cumulative WAR for those years of any team except the Brewers. That included the players KW traded away.So unless he was drafting bad players on purpose, his statement is incorrect. And that didn't even get to the badness his buddy Wilder was feeding him.

 

If KW could have a good farm system any time he wanted, how come it isn't considered good right now? He doesn't want one?

 

The fact is the guys they have brought in aren't ranked very much higher or in some cases lower than guys they have had in the system before and failed. Maybe all of these guys will work out. But I think even you would admit that probably isn't going to happen.

 

lol. Apparently only minor leaguers fail? I seem to remember the last free agent contract we signed didn't work out to well either.

[witesoxfan]

As I stated, you wouldn't be burning bridges, because signing these guys for multiyears with draft pick compensation is doing them a solid at this point.

 

The White Sox aren't in danger of becoming the Marlins, but if you want to be ultra conservative, like is being suggested on this board, being the Marlins might be the best case scenerio for what you will become.

 

I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team.

 

So not wanting the Sox to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana suddenly makes us ultra conservative? I think it makes you ultra aggressive to the point of being a fault. The Sox have a middle rotation starter already signed on the roster in John Danks who is risky enough, but the White Sox wouldn't be able to give him away at this point without eating money. They have guys in Johnson, Paulino, Rienzo, and Surkamp that I imagine they'd like to get some innings. The team is nowhere near competing without several great, breakthrough years from a lot of players.

 

This is how rebuilding goes. Ultra conservative is what the Cubs are doing by not taking risks at all. The White Sox have taken plenty of risks this offseason already and those moves have been lauded by the fans on here.

 

I've already said that, if the right free agent came up, I'd have no problem surrendering that pick. If the Sox had to give up their 2nd round pick to sign Tanaka, I wouldn't have cared. I don't want the Sox committing 4 years and $50 million or so to Jimenez or Santana because they're on the wrong side of 30 and likely to start declining very soon. That they have to give up a 2nd pick round is just icing on the stay-the-hell-away cake.

 

If you want an example of a team or state of the organization in which I'd be a proponent of this, it's if the Sox were in the same phase as the Orioles. They have a very talented team in need of good starting pitching. They are nowhere close to that state.

 

Peavy has not always been better. He had a stretch of 3 years he hardly pitched 300 innings.

 

Santana has been really good 4 of the past 6 seasons:

 

2008 3.49 ERA 219 IP

2009 5.03 ERA 139 IP

2010 3.92 ERA 222 IP

2011 3.38 ERA 228 IP

2012 5.16 ERA 178 IP

2013 3.24 ERA 211 IP

 

and you are saying this is better?

 

2008 2.85 ERA 173 IP

2009 3.45 ERA 101 IP

2010 4.63 ERA 107 IP

2011 4.92 ERA 111 IP

2012 3.37 ERA 219 IP

2013 4.17 ERA 144 IP

 

Ervin Santana has always pitched in a home park that suppresses homers. Jake Peavy pitched in a park in USCF that did nothing but allow homers. Peavy was always a better, more talented pitcher who was hurt by his home ballpark in his time with Chicago. He was also injured. That can easily happen to Jimenez or Santana too.

 

With his flyball tendencies, it's very easy to assume that Santana could be a 4.50 ERA pitcher with the White Sox.

 

---

 

This is all moot discussion anyways considering Rick Hahn himself said they aren't signing a pitcher tied to draft pick compensation.

[Dick Allen]

So not wanting the Sox to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana suddenly makes us ultra conservative? I think it makes you ultra aggressive to the point of being a fault. The Sox have a middle rotation starter already signed on the roster in John Danks who is risky enough, but the White Sox wouldn't be able to give him away at this point without eating money. They have guys in Johnson, Paulino, Rienzo, and Surkamp that I imagine they'd like to get some innings. The team is nowhere near competing without several great, breakthrough years from a lot of players.

 

This is how rebuilding goes. Ultra conservative is what the Cubs are doing by not taking risks at all. The White Sox have taken plenty of risks this offseason already and those moves have been lauded by the fans on here.

 

I've already said that, if the right free agent came up, I'd have no problem surrendering that pick. If the Sox had to give up their 2nd round pick to sign Tanaka, I wouldn't have cared. I don't want the Sox committing 4 years and $50 million or so to Jimenez or Santana because they're on the wrong side of 30 and likely to start declining very soon. That they have to give up a 2nd pick round is just icing on the stay-the-hell-away cake.

 

If you want an example of a team or state of the organization in which I'd be a proponent of this, it's if the Sox were in the same phase as the Orioles. They have a very talented team in need of good starting pitching. They are nowhere close to that state.

 

 

 

Ervin Santana has always pitched in a home park that suppresses homers. Jake Peavy pitched in a park in USCF that did nothing but allow homers. Peavy was always a better, more talented pitcher who was hurt by his home ballpark in his time with Chicago. He was also injured. That can easily happen to Jimenez or Santana too.

 

With his flyball tendencies, it's very easy to assume that Santana could be a 4.50 ERA pitcher with the White Sox.

 

---

 

This is all moot discussion anyways considering Rick Hahn himself said they aren't signing a pitcher tied to draft pick compensation.

I told you it was moot posts ago, but White Sox pitchers generally pitch better at home vs. on the road, although it is interesting you didn't point out Jake did a lot of his pitching in San Diego.

[witesoxfan]

I told you it was moot posts ago, but White Sox pitchers generally pitch better at home vs. on the road, although it is interesting you didn't point out Jake did a lot of his pitching in San Diego.

 

Like 5 years ago, which is totally irrelevant to his talent and ability today.

[Balta1701]

This is how rebuilding goes. Ultra conservative is what the Cubs are doing by not taking risks at all. The White Sox have taken plenty of risks this offseason already and those moves have been lauded by the fans on here.

And yet, the Cubs last year decided that even though they weren't quite ready to bring their kids up they might be able to benefit from signing a reliable, middle of the order pitcher to a 4/$50 contract. They have since declared that was a major mistake.

[Dick Allen]

Like 5 years ago, which is totally irrelevant to his talent and ability today.

Yet you broke out a graph that goes back to 2004. You are funny. I'll give you that.

[witesoxfan]

Yet you broke out a graph that goes back to 2004. You are funny. I'll give you that.

 

Because it shows most of their career stats. Throughout his career, including the time in his last 3-5 years, Peavy has been a better pitcher.

 

ERA is also a flawed way of looking at just the numbers. Had Santana pitched in Colorado, do you think his ERAs would look that good?

[Dick Allen]

Because it shows most of their career stats. Throughout his career, including the time in his last 3-5 years, Peavy has been a better pitcher.

 

ERA is also a flawed way of looking at just the numbers. Had Santana pitched in Colorado, do you think his ERAs would look that good?

I also look at his innings pitched. I love Jake, but he had 3 years he didn't pitch 115 innings. A couple of those years Santana pitched over 200 innings with a really good ERA. To say Jake has always been better isn't right. And, when you look at their splits, for some reason, White Sox pitchers usually have better numbers at home vs. on the road. I think USCF is a home run paradise, but for everything else, apparently not so much. Perhaps that makes the park factor calculation not so accurate. Jake actually gave up more homers on the road in a White Sox uniform than at USCF. And if you are talking Colorado, why aren't you giving Jimenez extra credit for pitching there? Of the 2 of them, I would prefer Santana myself.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team.

 

Isn't that the truth.

 

The two wild card system makes building through the draft much less important. When you have a pitcher like Sale you want to maximize his postseason opportunities. Protecting a 2nd round pick like its Fort Knox is silly.

 

[witesoxfan]

I also look at his innings pitched. I love Jake, but he had 3 years he didn't pitch 115 innings. A couple of those years Santana pitched over 200 innings with a really good ERA. To say Jake has always been better isn't right. And, when you look at their splits, for some reason, White Sox pitchers usually have better numbers at home vs. on the road. I think USCF is a home run paradise, but for everything else, apparently not so much. Perhaps that makes the park factor calculation not so accurate. Jake actually gave up more homers on the road in a White Sox uniform than at USCF.

 

And I'm saying that I fully believe that Santana would put up worse numbers than Peavy did with the White Sox for any number of reasons, plus Santana could just as easily get hurt too. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out and he gives up a lot of fly balls. That is not a very good combination for USCF. I am aware that players in general typically play better at home than on the road and the park factor calculation is just fine.

 

It is certainly possible that Santana could come in and be a very good pitcher for 3 out of the 4 years he was with the White Sox. They could trade him half way through year 1. They could do a lot of things. But he could just as easily get hurt or regress and suddenly he's become an albatross and the Sox can't evaluate their own young arms and they're out a 2nd round pick and they're out $12.5 mill a year (at minimum) for the next 4 years.

 

I truly, fully believe the odds of him becoming Edwin Jackson or John Danks are far greater than him maintaining that production throughout the life of his contract. I believe the risk far, far outweighs the reward in this situation.

[witesoxfan]

Isn't that the truth.

 

The two wild card system makes building through the draft much less important. When you have a pitcher like Sale you want to maximize his postseason opportunities. Protecting a 2nd round pick like its Fort Knox is silly.

 

People don't want the Sox to stop adding talent. They don't want them to add 30+ year old pitchers for $12.5+ mill a year on multi-year deals. Historically, those contracts do not end well for the team and improving the Sox marginally this year is less important than improving them marginally 1-3 years from now.

[southsider2k5]

People don't want the Sox to stop adding talent. They don't want them to add 30+ year old pitchers for $12.5+ mill a year on multi-year deals. Historically, those contracts do not end well for the team and improving the Sox marginally this year is less important than improving them marginally 1-3 years from now.

 

Forget it, they are in "If we repeat it enough times, it will be true" mode.