Grab a SP now

[witesoxfan]

So you're telling me that A)you believe you can go out any year and sign a #3 starter for $50M and B) you are fine with not competing in 2015 either?

 

Seems to me like you are content with sitting around and waiting to see if a bunch of fringe talent works out and if not then you go out and sign someone else. Why not sure up your starting 5 this year and then sign a catcher + a reliever next year? Adding $13 to the payroll this year isn't stopping any progress or building.

 

For A, yes, typically you can. They may have that #3 on the roster already, but if not, there are ways of going about acquiring it.

For B, I have no idea because it depends on what happens in 2014. 2015 may require another small rebuild. 2015 may only need one piece added to the team. That's why I want to see what the team does in 2014.

 

I have absolutely no problem and, in fact, find it preferable to go into the 2014 season as is. This team still has about a million questions that I would want answered before committing any more money on a player who could ultimately a marginal upgrade. I would rather not "shore up" the rotation this year with the acquisition of an inconsistent, wrong side of 30 starter who may or may not be good in both 2014 and 2015. The $13 million this year would not be an impediment, but it would hold back additional money that they can spend next year or during the season.

 

Ten years ago, the Sox acquired Freddy Garcia for a trio of prospects and Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza mid-season in moves that, while made for 2004, were also made with the future in mind. With Dunn's contract coming off the books and the ability to non-tender quite a few others, you could realistically see the same thing this year too.

[ChiSox59]

If the SOX signed Garza to the contract the Brewers are close to signing him to, I wouldn't be mad. I think Garza would be a nice addition.

 

Do I understand why waiting another year makes sense? Absolutely. But you can never have enough good pitching. Garza (with no draft pick compensation) for $13M per year is not that big of a risk.

 

Now, Santana and Ubaldo are a bit different due to draft pick compensation. No point in the SOX forfeiting that pick when they've had their best draft position in eons, and when considering the overall state of the organization.

[Balta1701]

If the SOX signed Garza to the contract the Brewers are close to signing him to, I wouldn't be mad. I think Garza would be a nice addition.

 

Do I understand why waiting another year makes sense? Absolutely. But you can never have enough good pitching. Garza (with no draft pick compensation) for $13M per year is not that big of a risk.

 

Now, Santana and Ubaldo are a bit different due to draft pick compensation. No point in the SOX forfeiting that pick when they've had their best draft position in eons, and when considering the overall state of the organization.

Like I said in the other thread, the Brewers won 10 more games than the Sox last year and I can't figure out how he makes a lick of sense for the Brewers either.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Like I said in the other thread, the Brewers won 10 more games than the Sox last year and I can't figure out how he makes a lick of sense for the Brewers either.

 

 

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

[Eminor3rd]

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

 

$60m can go a long way in acquiring and developing young talent. Or it can go to a post-prime version of Matt Garza. Remember that they did not buy 27yo Garza, they bought 30-34 Garza.

 

EDIT: Not to mention that post-prime Garza would be taking innings away from either Erik Johnson or Andre Rienzo, two guys who needs to log some innings for their development. If we didn't have Danks already, then sure, throw a stabilizing vet into the mix. But Danks is here to stay, so that's who we have.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Marty34]

$60m can go a long way in acquiring and developing young talent. Or it can go to a post-prime version of Matt Garza. Remember that they did not buy 27yo Garza, they bought 30-34 Garza.

 

EDIT: Not to mention that post-prime Garza would be taking innings away from either Erik Johnson or Andre Rienzo, two guys who needs to log some innings for their development. If we didn't have Danks already, then sure, throw a stabilizing vet into the mix. But Danks is here to stay, so that's who we have.

 

So can a trade of Chris Sale if that's the goal.

[witesoxfan]

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

 

How is $50-60 million a reasonable price for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher? I'd like to see the evidence you provide explaining how those are good value deals. As far as I'm aware, a great majority of those deals end up biting teams in the ass.

[witesoxfan]

So can a trade of Chris Sale if that's the goal.

 

He provides incredible surplus value to the White Sox. Trading him makes sense only if they can match the surplus value he provides. No team wants to give that up because it involves giving up 5 very, very good prospects.

[ScottyDo]

So can a trade of Chris Sale if that's the goal.

Don't be dense. You know Sale IS that young talent to which we are all referring.

[ScottyDo]

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation.

 

This has been explained in depth. It's not that it necessarily hurts, it's that it's a misallocation of resources.

 

I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

 

Nobody said this. It can be a bad idea without "causing a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process".

[southsider2k5]

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

 

Considering Edwin Jackson could very well have prevented the Cubs from getting Tanaka there is one. Of course there is always the best example of Carlos Boozer coming to Chicago as a consolation prize, and then being a salary blackhole preventing the Bulls from doing anything else of use.

[southsider2k5]

How is $50-60 million a reasonable price for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher? I'd like to see the evidence you provide explaining how those are good value deals. As far as I'm aware, a great majority of those deals end up biting teams in the ass.

 

For three years it is reasonable. Though getting that guy to sign for 3 years is nil anymore.

[Marty34]

He provides incredible surplus value to the White Sox. Trading him makes sense only if they can match the surplus value he provides. No team wants to give that up because it involves giving up 5 very, very good prospects.

 

That "surplus value" doesn't help win games if you just admire it.

[ScottyDo]

That "surplus value" doesn't help win games if you just admire it.

You can hang onto it until the time is right to flip the switch into "win now" mode which is potentially soon. It's just not now.

[TaylorStSox]

Considering Edwin Jackson could very well have prevented the Cubs from getting Tanaka there is one. Of course there is always the best example of Carlos Boozer coming to Chicago as a consolation prize, and then being a salary blackhole preventing the Bulls from doing anything else of use.

Boozer? Does Santana count against the MLB salary cap?

[Dick Allen]

Considering Edwin Jackson could very well have prevented the Cubs from getting Tanaka there is one. Of course there is always the best example of Carlos Boozer coming to Chicago as a consolation prize, and then being a salary blackhole preventing the Bulls from doing anything else of use.

If the Cubs didn't sign Edwin Jackson, I still doubt they get Tanaka. They refused the 4 year out. Also, if the Bulls didn't sign Boozer, they still would eventually have been at or near the cap. They had to sign someone then. They couldn't wait because after Rose signed an extension, that money wasn't available.

[ScottyDo]

If the Cubs didn't sign Edwin Jackson, I still doubt they get Tanaka. They refused the 4 year out. Also, if the Bulls didn't sign Boozer, they still would eventually have been at or near the cap. They had to sign someone then. They couldn't wait because after Rose signed an extension, that money wasn't available.

Yeah, the Boozer thing is also different because the Bulls were in win-now mode the moment Rose broke out. That changes the whole equation. Sox, not so much.

[TheFutureIsNear]

How is $50-60 million a reasonable price for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher? I'd like to see the evidence you provide explaining how those are good value deals. As far as I'm aware, a great majority of those deals end up biting teams in the ass.

 

Ervin Santana is a #3 borderline #2 starter. I'd love for you to show me guys that have been recently signed for around $13 million a year. Because I see the Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco's of the world signing for 11 or 12 minimum. Its just the going rate for starting pitchers and Santana is a way better pitcher than them.

 

And if you really want me to prove you wrong....https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9gIYm7hp32V6QbwoeoXOvKWQ3i9ajgzsRtfrVvx1-tR7NQ4vw

 

$7 million dollars is the new average price payed per WAR. Depends where you look since every website seems to have their own version of WAR in 2014, but Santana's average WAR is right around 2.6 for the past 4 years. So you're right. Just a horrible value for $13 million dollars.

 

 

[ScottyDo]

Ervin Santana is a #3 borderline #2 starter. I'd love for you to show me guys that have been recently signed for around $13 million a year. Because I see the Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco's of the world signing for 11 or 12 minimum. Its just the going rate for starting pitchers and Santana is a way better pitcher than them.

 

And if you really want me to prove you wrong....https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9gIYm7hp32V6QbwoeoXOvKWQ3i9ajgzsRtfrVvx1-tR7NQ4vw

 

$7 million dollars is the new average price payed per WAR. Depends where you look since every website seems to have their own version of WAR in 2014, but Santana's average WAR is right around 2.6 for the past 4 years. So you're right. Just a horrible value for $13 million dollars.

If you use Fangraphs he has averaged 1.5 WAR per year over the last five years.

[witesoxfan]

That "surplus value" doesn't help win games if you just admire it.

 

That surplus value is exactly what wins you games. He is being paid like a middle reliever and putting up ace-ace quality numbers. Due to the amount they are saving on him, they'll be able to offer that to someone else when the time is right. It may allow them to save that money and offer it to him when it comes time for an extension. There are plenty of uses for that money that don't involve spending it this year, and there's no need to trade a great player.

 

Ervin Santana is a #3 borderline #2 starter. I'd love for you to show me guys that have been recently signed for around $13 million a year. Because I see the Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco's of the world signing for 11 or 12 minimum. Its just the going rate for starting pitchers and Santana is a way better pitcher than them.

 

And if you really want me to prove you wrong....https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9gIYm7hp32V6QbwoeoXOvKWQ3i9ajgzsRtfrVvx1-tR7NQ4vw

 

$7 million dollars is the new average price payed per WAR. Depends where you look since every website seems to have their own version of WAR in 2014, but Santana's average WAR is right around 2.6 for the past 4 years. So you're right. Just a horrible value for $13 million dollars.

 

Two of the last five years, Ervin Santana has been awful. One of those 5 years he was rather mediocre. He has only really been good in 2 of those years. He's been a very inconsistent pitcher overall and is not worthy of a large investment. Let a team like the Dodgers or Mets make that move.

 

Also, just because the average going rate for WAR is $7 mill (or whatever it is), that does not mean you should sign someone for that exact rate. That merely implicates that you can be getting good value for that amount. Of course, teams like the Phillies are paying Ryan Howard $25 mill a year to put up WAR of -1.1 and 0.4 and the Sox are paying the likes of Adam Dunn $14 mill a year to put up WARs of -3.0, 1.0, and -1. Those all affect it too. You should try and get good deals whenever you can, not give out contracts because guys are "worth it," especially when the cost of the win itself really doesn't add much to the White Sox. While the league average value of WAR right now is $6-7 mill, the value of added WAR right now to the Sox is probably closer to $2-3 million simply because there's not a large difference this year or next year.

 

All this said, the age is still the biggest concern. If Ervin Santana were 27 instead of 31, I'd have no problem with giving him a deal. The fact is, he is older and by the time I figure the Sox will absolutely be competitive - 2016 - he is going to be 33 and beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. It's the same reason I didn't want Curtis Granderson.

[royoung]

Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

 

You could apple the same logic to what the Yankees do. With their seemingly unlimited payroll, nearly every talented free agent has a "reasonable price." The White Sox have a hard and fixed payroll limit, every dollar you spend takes away from another potential deal. This is why Chris Sale's contract is so damn valuable, we are getting an ace for the price of a back of the rotation starter. I don't want to pay a 31 year old inconsistent starter 13 million a year to do what Danks can do for the same price or Q can do for a fraction of it. We can (and should) spend that money elsewhere to make a better complete team.

[Marty34]

That surplus value is exactly what wins you games. He is being paid like a middle reliever and putting up ace-ace quality numbers. Due to the amount they are saving on him, they'll be able to offer that to someone else when the time is right. It may allow them to save that money and offer it to him when it comes time for an extension. There are plenty of uses for that money that don't involve spending it this year, and there's no need to trade a great player.

 

When will the time be right and who will be available?

[Marty34]

You could apple the same logic to what the Yankees do. With their seemingly unlimited payroll, nearly every talented free agent has a "reasonable price." The White Sox have a hard and fixed payroll limit, every dollar you spend takes away from another potential deal. This is why Chris Sale's contract is so damn valuable, we are getting an ace for the price of a back of the rotation starter. I don't want to pay a 31 year old inconsistent starter 13 million a year to do what Danks can do for the same price or Q can do for a fraction of it. We can (and should) spend that money elsewhere to make a better complete team.

 

 

You're not taking away from Quintana's value if you sign a mid-rotation starter. Would you rather have Jimenez or Santana and say Jason Castro going forward or Quintana?

[witesoxfan]

When will the time be right and who will be available?

 

It could be next year, it may be the year after. I have no idea what their needs are going to be at any given time in the next 2 years. There will be players available though.

 

Yes, there's naturally some deep down fear or apprehensiveness of the unknown - in this instance, not knowing what's actually going to be available - but there are always players available.

 

The idea of bringing in Jimenez or Santana is crazy to me because it seems that they'd be spending money just to spend money. They have plenty of options for the last 2 rotation spots and seeing at least what the team has there is very important for long-term evaluation.

Edited January 24, 2014 by witesoxfan

[ScottyDo]

When will the time be right and who will be available?

When your win total gets high enough that a few wins will move you into playoff contention. Read: not 2014. Why would you need a list of future pitchers who will be available? That's a useless exercise. Perhaps some guy nobody's ever heard of breaks out next year and is available. Perhaps some teams lock their guys up long-term. Who knows? We're not even at the 75 win mark yet, there's no point in projecting. What you CAN do is be relatively assured that #3 starters will be available on the market. Because that happens every year. If you'd like some examples, read earlier in the thread where we talked about who projects to be available next year.