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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 11:33 PM)
I'm actually surprised Johnson is rated so poorly. I expect him to be around #50. Davidson seems fair. Would have expected to see Semien in the 90s, but no big oversight there.

 

Semien needs to follow it up at AAA Charlotte this season and he will be in the big leagues and/or rise into the top 100. He doesn't have one skill that stands out, but seems to be 50 grade or better across the board.

 

I'm a bit surprised that Johnson isn't higher up as well, certainly a top 50 prospect in my eyes. He is 24 this season, and older than many other prospects, but he already has a major league frame at 6'3" 235 lbs. My grades on him are:

 

Fastball 91-94 with decent movement and location: 60

Curveball is more than just a below average show me pitch and should be league average 50

Slider is a true plus pitch for Johnson and he locates it well 60

Changeup 50 and could get better with Cooper's teaching

Control 60

Overall 60

 

I see him being an above average mlb starter who can eat innings with his strong frame. Solid #3 starter with the potential to become a #2 caliber. I like Erik Johnson better than the #56 prospect RHP Jake Odorizzi on the Rays. Johnson has a stronger frame, better fastball and better international league numbers this past year (both are similar prospects overall though and profile as solid middle of the rotation guys)

 

Davidson should start the year in AAA for at least a month or two before he is rushed to the big leagues.

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I think a lot of scouts aren't high on Johnson's ceiling and don't see him getting lefties out at the next level due to lack of third pitch. Of course, development of third pitch is why he's gotten as good as he is now so we can assume it has been chronically underrated.

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 10:01 AM)
I think a lot of scouts aren't high on Johnson's ceiling and don't see him getting lefties out at the next level due to lack of third pitch. Of course, development of third pitch is why he's gotten as good as he is now so we can assume it has been chronically underrated.

 

While he was outstanding against right handed batters in AAA, his numbers against lefties were not awful there. Like I said earlier I think Johnson is just as good of a prospect as Jake Odorizzi on in the Tampa Bay system who is ranked at #56. I agree that he might be one of the most underrated prospects in baseball right now.

 

Johnson has been great the past two seasons combined in the minors:

 

234 ip / 182 hits / 69 walks / 218 k's / 1.13 WHIP / 2.19 ERA

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 25, 2014 -> 09:51 AM)
How is Kolten Wong at #58 overall and Marcus Semien isn't even in the top 100? Semien may actually be a better player than Wong is. Doesn't make any sense.

100% agree. I don't see how Wong can be considered a significantly better prospect than Semien. I'm guessing people look at Wong's AAA line and forget he played in the PCL.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 25, 2014 -> 07:24 PM)
LOL.

 

 

Yeah, have to agree there. I have seen two writers say they prefer Semien to Wong. I believe they were Keith Law and Kiley McDaniel but don't quote me on that. There's probably a White Sox-Cardinals bias there too. Cardinals turn marginal prospects (Craig and Carpenter) into great players and the White Sox turn marginal hitting prospects into absolutely nothing.

 

 

Here was Jonathan Mayo's response to me: Jonathan Mayo ‏@JonathanMayoB3 10h

@JamesFox917 @jimcallis His tools don't measure up. I like him, but Wongs tools much better

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To me, the main thing Wong has (other than LH bat, which is important) is not so much talent as it is track record. Semien's never been bad, but he's only spent a few months on the legitimate prospect radar. Too much uncertainty.

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 11:11 AM)
To me, the main thing Wong has (other than LH bat, which is important) is not so much talent as it is track record. Semien's never been bad, but he's only spent a few months on the legitimate prospect radar. Too much uncertainty.

 

 

And he's not on STL, NY, or Boston.

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