Keith Law's top 100

[GGajewski18]

I think I read that Hawkins and Tim Anderson will both be at High A Winston Salem.

 

Winston Salem will be a fun team to watch this year as I believe May and Barnum will also start there. To go along with Hawkins, Cose, Goldberg and DeMichele.

Edited January 29, 2014 by SoxPride18

[GreenSox]

But oddly that was not the reason Law undervalued him. He thought he couldn't start because hehad an average breaking ball and wouldn't be able to repeat his delivery.

Exactly. He completely missed on Sale's ability, beyond his fear of injury.

But none of these prospect guru guys are close to perfect.

Law is interesting to read.

[royoung]

But oddly that was not the reason Law undervalued him. He thought he couldn't start because hehad an average breaking ball and wouldn't be able to repeat his delivery.

 

As for him not ranking Abreu, that makes sense because he will not be a White Sox minor leaguer. He did however say when Abreu signed that the White Sox signing him made no sense, because in his opinion, by the time the White Sox are good enough to where he will matter, he will be in decline.

 

And it would be one thing if he missed on Sale during the draft. He was still missing after Sale had been in the major leagues a year and a half.

 

If Keith Law were half as good as he and some of his followers think he is, a team would be paying him a real nice wage to actually evaluate for real, where missing terribly can't be simply brushed away.

 

As I said earlier, I don't put any more stock in Keith Law's scouting expertise than anyone else, I only highlight it because it's available. But if you try and discredit a guy based on "missing terribly" on a couple guys, there wouldn't be any credible scouts left. There isn't a baseball scout in the world who doesn't have a story where they thought somebody was a can't miss prospect or wrote off a future All-Star.

[NorthSideSox72]

I personally think the fact that prospects are so hard to evaluate, and there are such varying opinions, makes it all the more interesting. Plus the fact that often times, they are ALL wrong on some players, in both directions.

 

[Dick Allen]

As I said earlier, I don't put any more stock in Keith Law's scouting expertise than anyone else, I only highlight it because it's available. But if you try and discredit a guy based on "missing terribly" on a couple guys, there wouldn't be any credible scouts left. There isn't a baseball scout in the world who doesn't have a story where they thought somebody was a can't miss prospect or wrote off a future All-Star.

I understand that, but to be excited because there are 3 White Sox prospects that he deems worthy of top 100 status doesn't make sense.

 

I went back and looked at his 2010 list.

Heyward was #1, Strasberg #2, but let's face it, the top guys are the easiest and most similar in every list. Mike Trout was #49.

 

The Sox had 2 guys on there. Flowers at 58 and Mitchell at 95.

The Cubs had 4 guys on there. Castro at 12, Vitters at 30, Jay Jackson at 50 and Cashner at 79. Here is his 2010 list:

 

NO. PLAYER

1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

 

2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS

 

3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE

 

4 Buster Posey, C, SFO

 

5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA

 

6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM

 

7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX

 

8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA

 

9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX

 

10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY

 

11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL

 

12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

 

13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX

 

14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI

 

15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM

 

16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN

 

17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM

 

18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS

 

19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN

 

20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR

 

21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA

 

22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL

 

23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM

 

24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK

 

25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL

 

26 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE

 

27 Jaff Decker, OF, SDG

 

28 Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SFO

 

29 Tim Beckham, SS, TAM

 

30 Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC

 

31 Derek Norris, C, WAS

 

32 Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS

 

33 Chris Carter, 1B, OAK

 

34 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KAN

 

35 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT

 

36 Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL

 

37 Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI

 

38 Shelby Miller, RHP, STL

 

39 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD

 

40 Kyle Drabek, RHP, TOR

 

41 Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM

 

42 Wilson Ramos, C, MIN

 

43 Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, ATL

 

44 Carlos Triunfel, 2B, SEA

 

45 Casey Crosby, LHP, DET

 

46 Simon Castro, RHP, SDG

 

47 Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL

 

48 Jhoulys Chacin, LHP, COL

 

49 Mike Trout, OF, LAA

 

50 Jay Jackson, RHP, CHC

 

51 Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE

 

52 Hank Conger, C, LAA

 

53 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, BOS

 

54 Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL

 

55 Zach Stewart, RHP, TOR

 

56 Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS

 

57 Jose Tabata, OF, PIT

 

58 Tyler Flowers, C, CHW

 

59 Daryl Jones, OF, STL

 

60 Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU

 

61 Josh Bell, 3B, BAL

 

62 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA

 

63 Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL

 

64 Ike Davis, 1B, NYM

 

65 Jason Castro, C, HOU

 

66 Todd Frazier, 2B, CIN

 

67 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

 

68 Matt Sweeney, 3B, TAM

 

69 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KAN

 

70 Austin Jackson, OF, DET

 

71 Michael Brantley, OF, CLE

 

72 Mike Leake, RHP, CIN

 

73 Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM

 

74 Michael Saunders, OF, SEA

 

75 Mike Montgomery, LHP, KAN

 

76 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN

 

77 Trevor Reckling, LHP, LAA

 

78 Tanner Scheppers, RHP, TEX

 

79 Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHC

 

80 Jacob Turner, RHP, DET

 

81 Matt Moore, LHP, TAM

 

82 Tony Sanchez, C, PIT

 

83 Chris Withrow, RHP, LAD

 

84 Zack Wheeler, RHP, SFO

 

85 Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL

 

86 Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS

 

87 Aaron Crow, RHP, KAN

 

88 Chris Heisey, OF, CIN

 

89 Kyle Gibson, RHP, MIN

 

90 Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL

 

91 Jose Iglesias, SS, BOS

 

92 Drew Storen, RHP, WAS

 

93 Grant Green, SS, OAK

 

94 Jiovanni Mier, SS, HOU

 

95 Jared Mitchell, OF, CHW

 

96 Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY

 

97 Miguel Sano, SS, MIN

 

98 Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS

 

99 Travis d'Arnaud, C, TOR

 

100 Nick Hagadone, LHP, CLE

 

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

As I said earlier, I don't put any more stock in Keith Law's scouting expertise than anyone else, I only highlight it because it's available. But if you try and discredit a guy based on "missing terribly" on a couple guys, there wouldn't be any credible scouts left. There isn't a baseball scout in the world who doesn't have a story where they thought somebody was a can't miss prospect or wrote off a future All-Star.

 

Or vice versa where they had the next can't miss guy... who missed.

[southsider2k5]

I personally think the fact that prospects are so hard to evaluate, and there are such varying opinions, makes it all the more interesting. Plus the fact that often times, they are ALL wrong on some players, in both directions.

 

Not to mention there is so much more in the mental aspect of baseball, a lot where a guy ends up is due to things that there are no ways to know. What is his mental toughness? What is his work ethic? How is his focus?

[royoung]

I understand that, but to be excited because there are 3 White Sox prospects that he deems worthy of top 100 status doesn't make sense.

 

I went back and looked at his 2010 list.

Heyward was #1, Strasberg #2, but let's face it, the top guys are the easiest and most similar in every list. Mike Trout was #49.

 

The Sox had 2 guys on there. Flowers at 58 and Mitchell at 95.

The Cubs had 4 guys on there. Castro at 12, Vitters at 30, Jay Jackson at 50 and Cashner at 79. Here is his 2010 list:

 

Are you arguing that prospects bust a lot? All scouts top 100 lists are littered with guys who don't make it. They have to make those lists based on things like "upside" and "development." Do I think that the three White Sox on that list are all going to realize their potential? Absolutely not. But it's a snapshot of their perceived value right now, at least. Whether a Tim Anderson, let's say, ever contributes to the White Sox or not, he has trade value right now because he makes lists like this. Because guys who write for sports magazines and websites aren't looking at anything different than scouts who work for baseball teams. That is actually one of my favorite things about following baseball is the massive changes in value of a player as a he develops, or as his contract status changes, etc etc

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Keith, what are your thoughts on Chris Sale?

 

Klaw(1:25 PM)

 

I ranked him 47th. The White Sox took him 13th. You do the math.

 

Why is his opinion any better than any random "scout"? People always rag on ESPN, but if ESPN hires someone, he is considered some sort of genius guru in that field. The evidence shows Keith Law's opinions tend to be just as wrong as most everyone else. Even after the 2011 season, Law couldn't or wouldn't rank Sale in the top 50 players under 25.

 

Law also famously told us using colorful imagery, that Alexei Ramirez is an awful contact hitter, but in all actuality, he is one of the best in baseball at making contact.

[ILMOU]

It sucks looking at Law's list and seeing guys that we were hoping would fall to us ranked so much better than Anderson. Obviously there's nothing you can do about it but going into the Arizona's pick there was nearly a unanimous belief that we should take Shipley and if not Shipley, JP Crawford. Of course those were the two picks before us.

 

Shipley - #25

JP Crawford - #46

Anderson - #97

 

Again, nothing you can do but it still sucks.

Nah, it's pretty damn meaningless. None of these guys are going to be traded anytime soon, so the ranking next year is the 1st that will "matter". Anderson has a high ceiling, and could move up significantly this season, or not.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It sucks looking at Law's list and seeing guys that we were hoping would fall to us ranked so much better than Anderson. Obviously there's nothing you can do about it but going into the Arizona's pick there was nearly a unanimous belief that we should take Shipley and if not Shipley, JP Crawford. Of course those were the two picks before us.

 

Shipley - #25

JP Crawford - #46

Anderson - #97

 

Again, nothing you can do but it still sucks.

 

Or guys we were connected to in 2012, that went right after we took Courtney Hawkins.... like Michael Wacha 6 picks later, or Marcus Stroman 9 picks later. Those were both guys that people felt we would take with our pick. Now, Hawkins isn't even top 100 ranked, while Stroman is #58, and Wacha isn't even ranked anymore because he is already has 64 very good MLB innings and has dominated in the MLB postseason.

 

You could really pull your hair out looking at things like that on all the 1st RD picks we've missed on.

[Balta1701]

You could really pull your hair out looking at things like that on all the 1st RD picks we've missed on.

The reality of baseball is that every team can do this.

[ILMOU]

This is a strange argument. Shipley was a great value at 15 and probably a top 10 player in that draft. Crawford is more refined than Anderson on both sides of the ball as a younger player (and I do understand Anderson's background). Sure a lot of things can happen moving forward from here, but I'd prefer either of those players over Anderson. At this point, if you argue otherwise you're just succumbing to your team's bias.

Pro-ball sample sizs for the '13 draftees is so small that most pundits are merely going with their earlier scouting positons. Can't even trade them yet. Dramatic changes are commonplace, especially, from first time rankings.

[Y2Jimmy0]

True, and I wasn't even really using hindsight as Anderson had a fine season. It's not like I said I wish the Sox drafted Trout over Mitchell. Sure Wacha looks to have a better career than Hawkins but at the time I wanted Courtney Hawkins and I was happy when the team drafted him.

 

 

Absolutely agree with this. I wanted Hawkins at the time and that's who the Sox took. I loved it. Wacha represented the safe, college back-end type that was taken in the past and many would have been upset with that pick.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Keith Law also today released his top 10's for the AL. I will list them below and put a brief synopsis. I can email the insider stuff to people if you send me a PM.

 

1. Erik Johnson

2. Matt Davidson

3. Tim Anderson

4. Courtney Hawkins

5. Micah Johnson

6. Marcus Semien

7. Trayce Thompson

8. Chris Beck

9. Andrew Mitchell

10. Jacob May

11. Scott Snodgress

 

 

Law said that even though the system is still ranked 27th, it is in the best shape it's been in since he started compiling his rankings.

.... Law is still high on Courtney Hawkins. Says he was pushed to aggressively last season but still has the 3 tools (power, arm, speed) that made him a top 100 guy last season.

.....Micah Johnson opened eyes in the Arizona Fall League but Law states that he may end up in CF.

.....Law loves Andrew Mitchell. I believe he had him as his #35 draft prospect and the Sox took him in round 4. He says that TCU misused him as a reliever and that he has the 3 pitch mix to start.

.....Law is not a fan of Tyler Danish. He wasn't on draft day either though and mentions how he hates the delivery. He also said that he still hates Sale's arm action but says that the Sox have obviously made that work.

.....Semien could supplant Beckham at 2B if given the opportunity and could be an ideal utility infielder.

 

Keith also lists Jared Mitchell under The Fallen category and Jacob May under his Sleepers.

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow, he's high on Micah and Mitchell. I think he's probably not fully aware of some of the risks with Micah Johnson. Mitchell is an interesting prospect but I can't see him as top 10.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Wow, he's high on Micah and Mitchell. I think he's probably not fully aware of some of the risks with Micah Johnson. Mitchell is an interesting prospect but I can't see him as top 10.

 

 

He likes him as a starter though. If he's a reliever he probably isn't top 10. Law has said since draft day that he has the pitch mix to start.

[southsider2k5]

Or guys we were connected to in 2012, that went right after we took Courtney Hawkins.... like Michael Wacha 6 picks later, or Marcus Stroman 9 picks later. Those were both guys that people felt we would take with our pick. Now, Hawkins isn't even top 100 ranked, while Stroman is #58, and Wacha isn't even ranked anymore because he is already has 64 very good MLB innings and has dominated in the MLB postseason.

 

You could really pull your hair out looking at things like that on all the 1st RD picks we've missed on.

 

Calling guys a miss after their first full year of pro ball is just silly.

[southsider2k5]

True, and I wasn't even really using hindsight as Anderson had a fine season. It's not like I said I wish the Sox drafted Trout over Mitchell. Sure Wacha looks to have a better career than Hawkins but at the time I wanted Courtney Hawkins and I was happy when the team drafted him.

 

There was a ton of Wacha venom around draft time. He was pretty much viewed as Lance Broadway around these parts.

[Eminor3rd]

Keith, what are your thoughts on Chris Sale?

 

Klaw(1:25 PM)

 

I ranked him 47th. The White Sox took him 13th. You do the math.

 

Why is his opinion any better than any random "scout"? People always rag on ESPN, but if ESPN hires someone, he is considered some sort of genius guru in that field. The evidence shows Keith Law's opinions tend to be just as wrong as most everyone else. Even after the 2011 season, Law couldn't or wouldn't rank Sale in the top 50 players under 25.

 

The reason a lot of people didn't like Sale that high, Law included, is because they thought he was a major injury risk and they were afraid he would have platoon issues like almost every pitcher with his type of release has. No one doubted the stuff, lots doubted the risk level. It turned out as well as it possibly could have for us, but that doesn't mean it's unreasonable to have not wanted to take that risk back then.

[witesoxfan]

The reason a lot of people didn't like Sale that high, Law included, is because they thought he was a major injury risk and they were afraid he would have platoon issues like almost every pitcher with his type of release has. No one doubted the stuff, lots doubted the risk level. It turned out as well as it possibly could have for us, but that doesn't mean it's unreasonable to have not wanted to take that risk back then.

 

There were plenty of people who felt he would never make it as a starter and would be a reliever his whole career too.

[Dick Allen]

The reason a lot of people didn't like Sale that high, Law included, is because they thought he was a major injury risk and they were afraid he would have platoon issues like almost every pitcher with his type of release has. No one doubted the stuff, lots doubted the risk level. It turned out as well as it possibly could have for us, but that doesn't mean it's unreasonable to have not wanted to take that risk back then.

No. Possible injury did not matter to Law. It appears from his comments below, the stuff is doubted.

 

I don’t love the arm action, but this idea that arm action guarantees injury has to die. It’s all probability, and there have been pitchers with subpar mechanics who’ve pitched in the majors for several years before getting hurt, as well as plenty of pitchers with "clean" arm actions who got hurt anyway. Back to Sale, I’m more concerned that he’s a sidearming lefty without much of a breaking ball. If you knew nothing about him but that one sentence, what would you say he was in the big leagues?

 

 

In that same analysis, he rated Sale's slider as a '40' on his MLB Draft Grading Scale, with a projected future rating of '45'.

 

A 40 on that scale translates to "Well below-average ability". A 45 is still below average and translates to "11th/12th men on a pitching staff".

And here is a little snippet of Law's chat in Dec 2011 when Sale was going to be a starter AFTER a year and a half in the big leagues:

 

Do you like Chris Sale's move to the rotation and where do you see him as a future starter?

 

Klaw (1:35 PM) No, I don't.

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

No. Possible injury did not matter to Law. It appears from his comments below, the stuff is doubted.

 

I don’t love the arm action, but this idea that arm action guarantees injury has to die. It’s all probability, and there have been pitchers with subpar mechanics who’ve pitched in the majors for several years before getting hurt, as well as plenty of pitchers with "clean" arm actions who got hurt anyway. Back to Sale, I’m more concerned that he’s a sidearming lefty without much of a breaking ball. If you knew nothing about him but that one sentence, what would you say he was in the big leagues?

 

 

In that same analysis, he rated Sale's slider as a '40' on his MLB Draft Grading Scale, with a projected future rating of '45'.

 

A 40 on that scale translates to "Well below-average ability". A 45 is still below average and translates to "11th/12th men on a pitching staff".

And here is a little snippet of Law's chat in Dec 2011 when Sale was going to be a starter AFTER a year and a half in the big leagues:

 

Do you like Chris Sale's move to the rotation and where do you see him as a future starter?

 

Klaw (1:35 PM) No, I don't.

 

I see. Didn't see that anywhere before, looks like you're right. Still. Just because a guy misses on an unusual prospect doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's talking about. It's all probability.

 

On another note, Jason parks just tweeted this:

 

Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 20m

I really wanted to include Tim Anderson. RT @AndrewNemec @ProfessorParks For you, who was the hardest guy to leave off the top 101 list?

 

[ILMOU]

No. Possible injury did not matter to Law. It appears from his comments below, the stuff is doubted.

 

I don’t love the arm action, but this idea that arm action guarantees injury has to die. It’s all probability, and there have been pitchers with subpar mechanics who’ve pitched in the majors for several years before getting hurt, as well as plenty of pitchers with "clean" arm actions who got hurt anyway. Back to Sale, I’m more concerned that he’s a sidearming lefty without much of a breaking ball. If you knew nothing about him but that one sentence, what would you say he was in the big leagues?

 

 

In that same analysis, he rated Sale's slider as a '40' on his MLB Draft Grading Scale, with a projected future rating of '45'.

 

A 40 on that scale translates to "Well below-average ability". A 45 is still below average and translates to "11th/12th men on a pitching staff".

This may be the single stupidest thing said by any pundit, ever. Maybe he saw him on a bad day, lol. Sale's slider is quickly headed to GOAT territory, and dominates righties as well as lefties.

 

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29663395

 

Glad he also dislikes the Dane, whereas Parks loves him. Law's still playing catchup with his ego.

[Dick Allen]

This may be the single stupidest thing said by any pundit, ever. Maybe he saw him on a bad day, lol. Sale's slider is quickly headed to GOAT territory, and dominates righties as well as lefties.

 

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29663395

 

Glad he also dislikes the Dane, whereas Parks loves him. Law's still playing catchup with his ego.

There has been speculation that many, if not most of the players Law "evaluates", he has not seen play. So you really are getting someone else's analysis that he will put his name on. I will give him credit for not dumping the bad calls on someone else, but it sure does take a lot for him to admit an obvious mistake.