ESPN predicts Sox at 71-91

[LittleHurt05]

Anything other than a high draft pick or a playoff contender is a bad result for a season. Mediocrity is a franchise killer.

 

That's just ridiculous, this isn't the NBA. Do you know what happened the last time the Sox won 79 games in a season? They drafted Chris Sale with the following year's draft pick. That mediocrity sure destroyed the franchise.

 

Sure your odds are better of hitting on a pick when you draft in the top 3, but there are great players all over the draft and internationally. And one player doesn't determine a franchise's entire future success like in other sports.

[witesoxfan]

Baseball is an absolute crapshoot in the draft, even at the top. Mike Trout was taken 25th or whatever, Pujols in the 13th, yada yada yada. The entire point of baseball is just collecting as much talent as you can by whatever means possible in a rebuild. Wins 74 or 76 games would be a great step in the right direction, especially if it means young players were playing well. That's still a likely top 10 draft pick and, if not, it's like 11, 12, or 13.

 

Frankly, I couldn't give a s*** where the Sox end up in the draft.

[lasttriptotulsa]

That's just ridiculous, this isn't the NBA. Do you know what happened the last time the Sox won 79 games in a season? They drafted Chris Sale with the following year's draft pick. That mediocrity sure destroyed the franchise.

 

Sure your odds are better of hitting on a pick when you draft in the top 3, but there are great players all over the draft and internationally. And one player doesn't determine a franchise's entire future success like in other sports.

 

This. The development of the young players and the improvement of Viciedo, Beckham, etc. it would require for the Sox to finish anywhere near .500 is much better for the overall health of the franchise than the difference between say a 3 and a 10 draft pick. I personally feel that the Sox are going to finish around 75 wins (+/- a couple) and I am okay with that. That sets them up nicely to atleast have a chance at competing in 2015, which I think was probably their goal all along.

[SCCWS]

Baseball is an absolute crapshoot in the draft, even at the top. Mike Trout was taken 25th or whatever, Pujols in the 13th, yada yada yada. The entire point of baseball is just collecting as much talent as you can by whatever means possible in a rebuild. Wins 74 or 76 games would be a great step in the right direction, especially if it means young players were playing well. That's still a likely top 10 draft pick and, if not, it's like 11, 12, or 13.

 

Frankly, I couldn't give a s*** where the Sox end up in the draft.

 

I agree to some extent. Draft position is less important when you have good scouting. Boston has drafted real well despite having success on the field----and money to spend. Hopefully Hahn has people he can rely on not so much for the 3rd pick but for later rounds.

 

[Dick Allen]

I agree to some extent. Draft position is less important when you have good scouting. Boston has drafted real well despite having success on the field----and money to spend. Hopefully Hahn has people he can rely on not so much for the 3rd pick but for later rounds.

It's not just scouts. It's the developmental people. The Sox seem to be able to get pitchers, at least relievers, to the major leagues fairly easily. Hitters always seem to struggle. When was the last time a White Sox position prospect came up and actually looked like he had a clue at the plate? One thing that always seems a given is a ridiculously high strikeout rate with a ridiculously low walk rate and other numbers that seem to be, at best, ordinary.

 

It makes me wonder, are they having problems identifying guys who can be successful offensively, or is their developmental team just lacking. Every team has it's busts, but does Courtney Hawkins hit like a pitcher with power in A+ ball if he is with the Cardinals?

[witesoxfan]

It's not just scouts. It's the developmental people. The Sox seem to be able to get pitchers, at least relievers, to the major leagues fairly easily. Hitters always seem to struggle. When was the last time a White Sox position prospect came up and actually looked like he had a clue at the plate? One thing that always seems a given is a ridiculously high strikeout rate with a ridiculously low walk rate and other numbers that seem to be, at best, ordinary.

 

It makes me wonder, are they having problems identifying guys who can be successful offensively, or is their developmental team just lacking. Every team has it's busts, but does Courtney Hawkins hit like a pitcher with power in A+ ball if he is with the Cardinals?

 

Semien looked OK last year, and Beckham was great when he came up, only to fall by the wayside shortly thereafter. Viciedo also had a decent cup of coffee originally too.

 

How much of this has been on the major league staff failing to make adjustments throughout the course of the season? In the last 5 years they've either been terrible or they've lost to the absolute one team they could not lose to (Twins and Tigers).

[Dick Allen]

Semien looked OK last year, and Beckham was great when he came up, only to fall by the wayside shortly thereafter. Viciedo also had a decent cup of coffee originally too.

 

How much of this has been on the major league staff failing to make adjustments throughout the course of the season? In the last 5 years they've either been terrible or they've lost to the absolute one team they could not lose to (Twins and Tigers).

Viciedo and Beckham were both guys that were in the majors the year after they joined the organization, so I wouldn't say the White Sox had much to do with their development. Maybe they weren't poisoned. In fact, very little previous failure probably hurt them. Semien hit some homers in some September games but his walk and strikeout and on base rate were beyond horrible.

Maybe the new hitting coach with a total organizational approach will help. It can't be much worse.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

The idea that you can't have a middle win total season is just silly. How many teams in the history of baseball have gone from winning 60 something games in a season to 90 something the next one? Eventually, if your rebuilding is successful, you will have a season of between 77-85 wins. It is a stepping stone on the way to success.

[caulfield12]

The Cardinals' niche is pitching too, they've just done an even better job at it.

 

For every Quintana, Sale or Santos we've unearthed, they've found 2-3 starters in the draft and in Latin America.

 

Sure, they had Pujols for a generation. They also have the best catcher in baseball, which is a key difference...and probably the one area the White Sox are lacking in the most at the current time, and also where a lot of the problems can be traced back to.

 

FWIW, it does seem that they have a rookie or young player have a breakthrough season nearly every year, whether its Carpenter, Adams, Freese, Craig, Jay, Oscar Taveras now....even going back to Rasmus as well.

 

And then they had the consistent veteran core with Holliday and Beltran, to go with Molina and the best overall pitching talent in the game...paired with a manager who has been evolving and growing from the moment he took over the helm from LaRussa.

[caulfield12]

The idea that you can't have a middle win total season is just silly. How many teams in the history of baseball have gone from winning 60 something games in a season to 90 something the next one? Eventually, if your rebuilding is successful, you will have a season of between 77-85 wins. It is a stepping stone on the way to success.

 

 

Only that Red Sox anomaly, which can be partly attributed to the horrible decision to hire Valentine for one year...

[RockRaines]

I'm going with 80 wins. Yes that is incredibly optimistic. I am loving this team though.

I think we come in at just over 80 wins.

[Balta1701]

Only that Red Sox anomaly, which can be partly attributed to the horrible decision to hire Valentine for one year...

It's not just "only" the Red Sox, I'm certain the Rays did something like that as well. We've even had an "all worst to first" world series before, the 1991 Twins and Braves coming off years where both finished in last.

[caulfield12]

It's not just "only" the Red Sox, I'm certain the Rays did something like that as well. We've even had an "all worst to first" world series before, the 1991 Twins and Braves coming off years where both finished in last.

 

 

I was thinking more in terms of teams that yo-yoed from near the top of their division to last place and then back again in a 3 year stretch, although the White Sox didn't win the Central in 2012.

 

Those Rays, Braves and Twins teams were pretty bad for extended periods of time before breaking through....then the Twins went through nearly another decade-long stretch.

 

It certainly didn't happen in one off-season, it was the result of numerous high draft picks and young pitchers developing and blossoming at the same time.

[cabiness42]

The only way those things happen and the White Sox wind up with 63 wins is if Sale and perhaps other starters get hurt.

 

Yes it was an extreme example, but the point is that there will come a time in the season where player development trumps trying to win.

 

[Balta1701]

Yes it was an extreme example, but the point is that there will come a time in the season where player development trumps trying to win.

This season...that day should happen...Feb. 18th (or whenever people start reporting).

[Dick Allen]

I think winning is part of player development. Not necessarily the division, but losing 90 games shows your players aren't developing very well.

[caulfield12]

I think winning is part of player development. Not necessarily the division, but losing 90 games shows your players aren't developing very well.

 

 

If Semien, A. Garcia, Eaton, Davidson and Viciedo all have good (or stronger than expected seasons), it's still possible we could lose 90 and it would be a satisfactory season, as long as there's not a major injury to the pitching staff.

 

That would also likely mean Ramirez, Beckham, Dunn, DeAza and the catcher's spot are disappointing (along with Danks and the closer's role), which isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, either.

[Dick Allen]

If Semien, A. Garcia, Eaton, Davidson and Viciedo all have good (or stronger than expected seasons), it's still possible we could lose 90 and it would be a satisfactory season, as long as there's not a major injury to the pitching staff.

 

That would also likely mean Ramirez, Beckham, Dunn, DeAza and the catcher's spot are disappointing (along with Danks and the closer's role), which isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, either.

If the White Sox are bad enough to lose 90 games, the development is not going to be satifactory.

[caulfield12]

If the White Sox are bad enough to lose 90 games, the development is not going to be satifactory.

 

 

A Sale or Quintana injury and that's easily projectable as a loss total...or a complete bullpen meltdown like 2007 or when we started with Matt Thornton in that role in April could do it. Snowball effect.

 

That doesn't mean the young offensive players haven't made sufficient progress, necessarily.

Edited February 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

A Sale or Quintana injury and that's easily projectable as a loss total.

 

That doesn't mean the young offensive players haven't made progress, necessarily.

If you have to worry about Sale coming back from an injury, and the team loses 90 games, I don't call that progress. Considering the White Sox aren't doing the rebuild the Twins or Cubs way, the major league record actually means something during this rebuild. If this team wins close to 90 games or more, there is no way to describe it other than great. If they lose 90 or more, it is going to depress a lot of people.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

If Semien, A. Garcia, Eaton, Davidson and Viciedo all have good (or stronger than expected seasons), it's still possible we could lose 90 and it would be a satisfactory season, as long as there's not a major injury to the pitching staff.

 

That would also likely mean Ramirez, Beckham, Dunn, DeAza and the catcher's spot are disappointing (along with Danks and the closer's role), which isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, either.

I can't see any scenario where those guys would all have "stronger than expected" seasons and the Sox wouldn't win 70 games other than injuries involving Sale. I just can't see it. Ramirez isn't there for his bat and we know what we'll get out of his defense. Beckham and Dunn didn't contribute much if anything at all last year. The Catcher's spot didn't contribute anything at all last year. De Aza is the only guy on that list who contributed with the bats last year, and his defense was pretty spotty. Solid contributions from those guys and a lack of injuries in the rotation makes that a 70+ win team easily, maybe more.

[Vance Law]

This season...that day should happen...Feb. 18th (or whenever people start reporting).

 

So Semien should be starting at shortstop?

[Balta1701]

So Semien should be starting at shortstop?

If you could convince me that was best for player development (I don't think you can, that'd be rushing him a lot).

[Vance Law]

that'd be rushing him a lot

 

Offensively or defensively? I think he's a better offensive player right now than Davidson, and at one of the MI positions where offense is more scarce. I think he's probably a better offensive player than Alexei right now, though obviously not defensively.

[Balta1701]

Offensively or defensively? I think he's a better offensive player right now than Davidson, and at one of the MI positions where offense is more scarce. I think he's probably a better offensive player than Alexei right now, though obviously not defensively.

Offensively, he might be a better offensive "prospect" than Davidson but I can't come to any reasonable argument by which he's a more fully developed offensive player. I'm similarly not sure he's a better offensive player in the big leagues than Alexei right now. His numbers in AAA were worse than Davidson's in a cup of coffee there, his numbers in the big leagues were worse than Davidson's when they both were up in September.

 

Davidson's had a full year at AAA already. Semien's had most of a year at AA. Semien might well keep tearing it up this year and by midseason tell everyone "I'm going to destroy the big leagues", but he's not there yet.