Asking Prices Beginning to Fall

[witesoxfan]

This makes no sense. You're saying the Sox don't need to keep adding pitching? Or don't need to continue pursuing opportunities to add lower risk values to the organization regardless of where those opportunities exist on the field?

 

 

This isn't exactly true, as the Sox can always use pitching, but just because something is "on sale" does not mean it is appropriate to buy it.

 

That is literally in the post you quoted.

 

I also missed it before, but how does adding Jimenez or Santana *LOWER* the risk value? If anything, it increases the risk because you suddenly NEED these high priced pitchers to do well or you're screwed. If Paulino or Johnson or Rienzo or Surkamp suck, then who really gives a flying f***?

 

Buying things you need now or later when they are on sale is good practice because you save money. The Sox don't have 6 or 7 starters or whatever people keep saying, they have 3 proven vets, a nice prospect in EJ who is going to get every opportunity, and then a few fringe guys like Rienzo and Surkamp and Axelrod and so on to go with a veteran in Paulino who is trying to make a comeback. I see 3-4 slots here filled, not 5, and saying we don't "need" Santana or couldn't use the value he would provide is a little hard for me to understand because making that statement would seem to imply a certain level of trust in the 5th starter candidates I have mentioned and I can't see that as being justified at all.

 

No, buying things you don't need no matter what does not save you money. It costs you money. You don't save money by spending money. That's the opposite of how you save money.

Edited February 6, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox have too many good pitchers, there are 29 teams that will take them off their hands.

[Balta1701]

If the White Sox have too many good pitchers, there are 29 teams that will take them off their hands.

Which is why in the past year we've traded away 4 (and 1/2 if you count Jesse Crain's corpse).

[Dick Allen]

Which is why in the past year we've traded away 4 (and 1/2 if you count Jesse Crain's corpse).

Therefore, you shouldn't be opposed to adding more.

[Balta1701]

Therefore, you shouldn't be opposed to adding more.

But in order to turn those guys into tradeable assets, there needs to be innings for them to pitch, especially in the first half of the season. Otherwise, they can't be counted as solid, tradeable assets.

[The Ultimate Champion]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1848253...illion-contract

 

This is a pretty exhaustive examination of Santana...I should have said his stuff peaked in 2008 and was much more dominating in 2004-2008...as it is, his fastball has been pretty consistent in the last three seasons, around 91-93.

 

 

Let's try to find some common points of agreement:

 

1) Nobody said that they were sure Paulino would be better than Santana/Jimenez. Most agree, not taking salary into consideration, that Jimenez/Santana would probably be better at least in 2014.

 

Agree

 

2) Nobody that I've read wants to give Santana or Jimenez a four year contract anymore, it has come down to 3 or even 2 with an option

 

I'd say years and dollars matter both. Ex. if it's 4 years/$45M AAV $11.25M or 3 years/$40M AAV $13.3M then I'd do 4 years.

 

3) Nobody wants the White Sox to be bad in 2014 if there's a chance they can still be competitive in the division race.

 

I don't think that's realistic. I want Zooey Deschanel as my personal slave. Not realistic. Any perceived "chance" of that happening is an error in perception.

 

4) ALMOST nobody wants to give away a 2nd round pick, with the premium now being placed on draft picks and especially how much teams finishing near the bottom of the standings are allocated to spend....looking no further than the fact that 3rd round draft pick Addison Reed netted them a #70-something prospect in all of baseball.

 

I think the draft $$$ slot is just as important as the pick slot also. That 2nd rounder has excellent value, I agree, and I wish we had more of them.

 

OTOH, check out your on-paper underwhelming return for a fresh-from-the-DL Jake Peavy last year (who again was *not* the same guy in San Diego anymore) and also check the return on Garza to the Cubs and that's for a guy who couldn't even get the QO. There is a *lot* of value in quality mid-rotation veteran SP in the middle of quality seasons on the trade market in July. And when you make those deals you can scout players in other orgs on a real-time basis, and these guys are all playing against higher quality comp than the high school & college players generally are, and they're using wooden bats and so on.

 

The risk here is that you forfeit the pick (which itself is very uncertain and requires development time to be worth something in trade or help at the MLB level) and the draft slot bonus (you can get an underslot guy here and use the extra cash elsewhere) in exchange for a quality mid-rotation starter now, which costs payroll space as well, but is already valuable now and requires no wait, and further you can expect to exchange this form of value for another (prospects + salary relief) later on should the player continue to perform at a solid level.

 

You're swapping one risk for another, and whether you sign a SP or take the pick, neither deal is likely to destroy the franchise anytime soon. I personally think that given our weak farm but payroll space open, that Santana is a better risk to take ONLY at a discounted value. Because discounted value means better return in trade, it means less in the way of on-field performance is required for the player to be worth the contract, etc.

 

5) Dick Allen is arguing for Jimenez based on straighened out mechanics/ability/Don Cooper, whereas there's some disagreement about how much is left in the tank since his (Jimenez now) velocity has clearly decreased by 3-4-5 MPH compared to his prime in COL...and there's the doping/PEDs rumors out there about his mysterious loss of velocity.

 

I'm not sure on Ubaldo, I just want Ervin. I guess we don't know, I mean I haven't watched the guy. Velocity may not matter as much with him anyway though as he needs to throw strikes, get ahead in the count, stop walking guys, etc. If he were here for all we know Coop might like him better now than in his COL days.

 

6) There's clearly a point where almost every franchise that could use some starting pitching, and we're now talking 25 teams, including the White Sox...would/should/could be interested in signing either one of these guys (or Nelson Cruz/Morales/Drew for that matter).

 

Drew would be a nice target, Cruz not so much IMO because he's just a rebuild-your-value kind of player. That type of buy would work well for a team like the A's or something, Pirates lately, who generally look to capitalize on quality players who can be had for lower value short term deals. I'd really be interested in the pitching alone though, I think we have enough options in the IF and our DH/1B situation may end up being taken care of with Viciedo & Abreu.

 

7) Nobody wants to buy high on Santana with the risk that 2013 was a second peak in his career and the rest is all downhill, not to mention the concerns about being a flyball pitcher in USCF.

 

We're not really buying high though, that's the point. There's also nothing wrong with flyballs so long as they aren't rockets. Pop-ups are great, easy outs, and if Hahn decides to smarten up and clear LF for DeAza and DH for Viciedo then we'll have a pretty athletic OF that can run things down.

 

In the end, (nearly) everyone has a number where this starts to make sense (to them)...3/$39-40, 2/$27-28, whatever. When that point is reached, the Dunn/Rios/Danks/Keppinger "just another bad contract" risk will be compensated for by the possible return, but doubtless those agents are still holding out for 3-4 years and $40-70 million.

 

You're taking a risk, but the main risk is money, and you're potentially looking at a quality player for a year or two and then a better return than you could expect out of the draft with the pick. Because we're not loaded to the gills in payroll coming up, we can take that risk. You can't make moves as a GM without taking risks. But I think it should be a lot like Tanaka, throw your cards on the table, make an offer that you think makes your club's future look brighter & makes contention within the next 2 years look more attainable, and then see if you can hit on something. If not, at least you tried.

 

If those are the eventual numbers, 90% of the fans would prefer to see how things go with Paulino/Cooper, Erik Johnson and the rest of of our minor leaguers, like Beck, in 2014...simply being realistic about the fact that we're VERY unlikely to compete until 2015.

Another route could be targeting someone else's high-ability SP bust and throwing him in that mix. If Beck & Johnson were both in the same spot this year going into ST & both looked definitely MLB ready then I would not advocate signing another SP. But I don't think we're really blocking anyone that matters here.

[southsider2k5]

But in order to turn those guys into tradeable assets, there needs to be innings for them to pitch, especially in the first half of the season. Otherwise, they can't be counted as solid, tradeable assets.

 

AND they have to have some surplus value. How many multi-year free agent contracts have that?

[The Ultimate Champion]

 

 

 

That is literally in the post you quoted.

 

I also missed it before, but how does adding Jimenez or Santana *LOWER* the risk value? If anything, it increases the risk because you suddenly NEED these high priced pitchers to do well or you're screwed. If Paulino or Johnson or Rienzo or Surkamp suck, then who really gives a flying f***?

 

 

 

No, buying things you don't need no matter what does not save you money. It costs you money. You don't save money by spending money. That's the opposite of how you save money.

LOL

 

I learned these lessons at the high priced grocery stores a long time ago. Buy meat on sale, freeze it. Buy things like soap and deodorant with virtually indefinite shelf lives and you save money. Fill your car up with better grade when the gas is cheap. You seem to really have no understanding how to properly spend money, sorry.

[The Ultimate Champion]

BTW who cares if the 5th spot guys are terrible? Probably the entire bullpen. Just my guess.

[Dick Allen]

BTW who cares if the 5th spot guys are terrible? Probably the entire bullpen. Just my guess.

That's the other thing. The better your rotation is, the less taxing and exposing it is on your bullpen. I don't agree with you about Dunn, might as well see what he can do one more time, but I don't get why so many people want to see not just bad starters but more of guys like Troncoso as a byproduct.

[Balta1701]

That's the other thing. The better your rotation is, the less taxing and exposing it is on your bullpen. I don't agree with you about Dunn, might as well see what he can do one more time, but I don't get why so many people want to see not just bad starters but more of guys like Troncoso as a byproduct.

We also have a pretty deep bullpen right now too...Jones, Belisario, Downs, Lindstrom, Leesman/Veal/Surkamp, Petricka, Webb. Other guys like Rienzo could see time there as well if they don't get an immediate rotation spot.

 

If we're getting to a guy like Troncoso again...there's a good chance it happened because we traded people away, even perhaps more obviously so than last year when he took Crain's spot and then shortly thereafter Thornton was traded.

[Dick Allen]

We also have a pretty deep bullpen right now too...Jones, Belisario, Downs, Lindstrom, Leesman/Veal/Surkamp, Petricka, Webb. Other guys like Rienzo could see time there as well if they don't get an immediate rotation spot.

 

If we're getting to a guy like Troncoso again...there's a good chance it happened because we traded people away, even perhaps more obviously so than last year when he took Crain's spot and then shortly thereafter Thornton was traded.

It is deep with unknowns and mediocrity.

 

One thing I am shocked about is how many decent free agents, still haven't signed. There are still a few out there that are should get 8 figures a year. Has there ever been this many this close to the start of spring training?

[Princess Dye]

Slow these days so...

 

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 1m

RHP Chaz Roe has a minor league deal with the #Marlins, as @mlbtraderumors said. #WhiteSox also had strong interest.

[Balta1701]

It is deep with unknowns and mediocrity.

Which is exactly what happens when you bring young talent along. Fewer unknowns out there than in the lineup right now, frankly, but no one is calling for signing an additional 3b just inc ase.

[southsider2k5]

LOL

 

I learned these lessons at the high priced grocery stores a long time ago. Buy meat on sale, freeze it. Buy things like soap and deodorant with virtually indefinite shelf lives and you save money. Fill your car up with better grade when the gas is cheap. You seem to really have no understanding how to properly spend money, sorry.

 

I want to see you store Ervin Santana until we need him.

[lasttriptotulsa]

LOL

 

I learned these lessons at the high priced grocery stores a long time ago. Buy meat on sale, freeze it. Buy things like soap and deodorant with virtually indefinite shelf lives and you save money. Fill your car up with better grade when the gas is cheap. You seem to really have no understanding how to properly spend money, sorry.

 

Isn't that the opposite of saving money? If gas is cheaper, why would you throw your savings away buy going with a better grade? Sounds like you don't understand how to properly spend money.

[Kyyle23]

Im going to the store to buy as much steak as possible

[southsider2k5]

Im going to the store to buy as much steak as possible

 

No matter that you are a vegetarian...

[Balta1701]

Im going to the store to buy as much steak as possible

(Now is actually a really poor time. The 2012-2013 drought caused a lot of cattle to be slaughtered at the time, which reduced prices then but has led to an increase over the last few months.)

[Kyyle23]

(Now is actually a really poor time. The 2012-2013 drought caused a lot of cattle to be slaughtered at the time, which reduced prices then but has led to an increase over the last few months.)

 

It doesnt matter. next year there could be an even bigger cattle price increase, and I will have year old steaks in my freezer.

[Balta1701]

It doesnt matter. next year there could be an even bigger cattle price increase, and I will have year old steaks in my freezer.

That's actually pretty unlikely as the herds were already culled somewhat to deal with the previous drought. No obvious set of conditions would make for increased prices next year, they could stay constant, but good weather would allow herds to recover, and worsening drought would produce potentially another domestic herd shrinkage, which would cause another temporary price reduction (and perhaps increasing supplies from overseas as well).

 

In other words, there's no obvious reason other than nuclear holocaust that prices should continue to spike the way they have recently.

[Marty34]

It doesnt matter. next year there could be an even bigger cattle price increase, and I will have year old steaks in my freezer.

 

I don't think steak/pitching analogy is a good one. Steak is a luxury unlike pitching.

Edited February 6, 2014 by Marty34

[TheTruth05]

I'm pretty much ready for a cookout now. 2 degrees out? F*** it.

[Dick Allen]

This is silly. The Sox do need pitching. It is the price that people are balking at. If they signed cheap guys to minor league contracts no one would say, they have pitching, why sign another guy even it the price is small?

 

The only poster saying there isn't innings for another pitcher is Balta. So he is the only one who can say the Sox don't need another pitcher. They need several and always will.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I don't think steak/pitching analogy is a good one. Steak is a luxury unlike pitching.

Right. Meat is protein and amino acids, which are necessary. Steak is actually more on the negative side, you really shouldn't eat that much red meat anyway, and while it offers positives it's not nearly as good as fish or poultry. It's like buying sweetbreads for carbs rather than multigrain breads.

 

I used "meat" in my example, and it is a truth that by watching what you buy and when you buy it you can save a lot of $$$ over the course of a year by taking advantage of sales. When there are packages of chicken and pork chops on sale at discount, buy them all! Then freeze them. Grilling is awesome, and eating seafood & quality meat is expensive if you're always buying the priciest meats at their peak of value. Don Cooper would agree with me that freezing is awesome. Also freezing allows you to take advantage of special opportunities, like vension during hunting season for example, which is a great opportunity for excellent quality lean protein at a price which is often nothing or next to nothing. I bet Don Cooper likes venison also.

 

BTW I like Marty, Dick Allen, and Balta. Also SS2K5 but he's a lil quirky lately, and wite is just I swear looking for a fite! But EMiro is also cool and Quinarvy too even though I currently disagree with them.

 

But back to meat, yeah, freeze and save, that's my motto. Freeze and save.