Asking Prices Beginning to Fall

[Marty34]

1. Andre Rienzo (25), Erik Johnson (24), Eric Surkamp (26), Charlie Leesman (26), Scott Snodgress (24), Chris Beck (23), Nestor Molina (25), Chris Bassitt (24)

 

2. The $48m alone isn't the issue, it's committing to paying it to an inconsistent pitcher into his mid-30's. This type of player is MUCH more likely to be bad than good going forward, especially a couple years down the road.

 

1.) Thats a whole lot of garbage and the one or two who may come out of that won't be blocked by a free-agent pitcher.

 

2.) Ok, so we've established a $48M contract is not an albatross to the Sox going forward, great. As far as the type of pitcher on the market, that's what $48M buys you.

[witesoxfan]

1.) Thats a whole lot of garbage and the one or two who may come out of that won't be blocked by a free-agent pitcher.

 

Good thing you know that all those pitchers are garbage. Also good to know the Sox already brought in their free agent starting pitcher. Problem solved.

 

Tell me soothsayer, what are the lottery numbers? I promise I'll split it.

[Dick Allen]

Like seriously dude, there's a thread posted in the forum and stuff.

 

 

Has anyone ever added up a team's individual WARs at the end of a season and posted the actual WAR standings? To me that would be the most interesting and would show how truly accurate WAR is as a major tool. I refer to it myself, but if it truly is accurate, the numbers should add up pretty close to actual results.

[Marty34]

If I actually spend the time compiling information for you to read, will you read it?

 

Absolutely. My biggest problem with sabermetrics is how/when they are applied.

[Eminor3rd]

1.) Thats a whole lot of garbage and the one or two who may come out of that won't be blocked by a free-agent pitcher.

 

2.) Ok, so we've established a $48M contract is not an albatross to the Sox going forward, great. As far as the type of pitcher on the market, that's what $48M buys you.

 

1. You're the only one that thinks so

 

2. If $48m buys you a garbage pitcher, then why not save it and put it toward a decent one?

[Eminor3rd]

Absolutely. My biggest problem with sabermetrics is how/when they are applied.

 

Alright, I'll work on that tonight. The biggest thing to look into, IMO, is the concept of linear weights used to measure context-neutral events, as that is at the root of everything that goes into WAR.

[Marty34]

Good thing you know that all those pitchers are garbage. Also good to know the Sox already brought in their free agent starting pitcher. Problem solved.

 

Tell me soothsayer, what are the lottery numbers? I promise I'll split it.

 

Isn't there a projected WAR for these young starters?

[Dick Allen]

I was watching CSN the other night and it was mentioned Rick Hahn's favorite advanced metric number had to do with runs cost or created. I had never heard of it, but I believe 42 was in the title.

[Eminor3rd]

Has anyone ever added up a team's individual WARs at the end of a season and posted the actual WAR standings? To me that would be the most interesting and would show how truly accurate WAR is as a major tool. I refer to it myself, but if it truly is accurate, the numbers should add up pretty close to actual results.

 

No, it wouldn't work, because that ISN'T what it's trying to do. The purpose of WAR and its components are to strip context to get to something that resembles "true talent" for the purpose of finding a number that is more predictive. Actual records are (and should be) heavily context-dependent.

 

The best way to compare and actual record with a WAR record would be to roughly identify who overplayed or underplayed their "true talent." This could imply either luck or something like poor roster construction, poor management, etc.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Quin]

Ervin Santana is a mediocre pitcher

[Marty34]

1. You're the only one that thinks so

 

2. If $48m buys you a garbage pitcher, then why not save it and put it toward a decent one?

 

We agree that a $48M contract is not an albatross for the Sox. Would you rather have Nolasco, Garza, or Jimenez?

[witesoxfan]

Isn't there a projected WAR for these young starters?

 

Sure. Andre Rienzo is projected at 0.9 WAR in the Oliver projections, while Steamer has him projected at a 0.6 WAR over 115 innings. Felipe Paulino is projected at 0.5 WAR, but that's taking into account that it's only over 7 starts due to not pitching much the previous two seasons. Over 30 starts, that's roughly 2 WAR. His Oliver projections are a little less cheery at 0.3 WAR over 60 IP, but that's still 1 WAR over 180 innings for $1.5 mill, which would still be a bargain free agent. Steamer projects Surkamp for 1 IP, but Oliver has him at 1.9 WAR over 107 IP.

 

Steamer projects Ervin Santana at 2.7 WAR, Oliver projects him at 1.4 WAR, and the Fans project him at 2.1 WAR.

 

These obviously don't mean anything, but even if you look at the high end for Santana and the low end for the combination of those 3, you are talking about paying $11.5 million more for less than 2 WAR of value in 2014 while limiting the knowledge you have of the pitchers' performances and abilities at the major league level.

[witesoxfan]

We agree that a $48M contract is not an albatross for the Sox. Would you rather have Nolasco, Garza, or Jimenez?

 

E) None of the above.

[Dick Allen]

Sure. Andre Rienzo is projected at 0.9 WAR in the Oliver projections, while Steamer has him projected at a 0.6 WAR over 115 innings. Felipe Paulino is projected at 0.5 WAR, but that's taking into account that it's only over 7 starts due to not pitching much the previous two seasons. Over 30 starts, that's roughly 2 WAR. His Oliver projections are a little less cheery at 0.3 WAR over 60 IP, but that's still 1 WAR over 180 innings for $1.5 mill, which would still be a bargain free agent. Steamer projects Surkamp for 1 IP, but Oliver has him at 1.9 WAR over 107 IP.

 

Steamer projects Ervin Santana at 2.7 WAR, Oliver projects him at 1.4 WAR, and the Fans project him at 2.1 WAR.

 

These obviously don't mean anything, but even if you look at the high end for Santana and the low end for the combination of those 3, you are talking about paying $11.5 million more for less than 2 WAR of value in 2014 while limiting the knowledge you have of the pitchers' performances and abilities at the major league level.

$11.5 million for a 2 WAR is right in line with what teams pay free agents. Johnson is in the rotation. The others, meh. Do you really need to see Surkamp get clobbered? Your spin is interesting because you love Paulino and will go out of your way to project optimism for him. You mentioned 180 IP. HE HAS NEVER PITCHED 180 INNINGS IN A SEASON AS A PROFESSIONAL. How can you throw that out there as even a slight possibility for a guy coming off surgery?

[Eminor3rd]

E) None of the above.

 

This. Keep your draft pick, overspend on the draft/international markets, and put the $35m+ toward a better player when you're closer to contending

[Marty34]

This. Keep your draft pick, overspend on the draft/international markets, and put the $35m+ toward a better player when you're closer to contending

 

Who are the teams that overspend in the draft and international markets who have had success.

[witesoxfan]

$11.5 million for a 2 WAR is right in line with what teams pay free agents. Johnson is in the rotation. The others, meh. Do you really need to see Surkamp get clobbered? Your spin is interesting because you love Paulino and will go out of your way to project optimism for him. You mentioned 180 IP. HE HAS NEVER PITCHED 180 INNINGS IN A SEASON AS A PROFESSIONAL. How can you throw that out there as even a slight possibility for a guy coming off surgery?

 

I'd rather see these guys get clobbered and/or hurt so that the organization knows what its needs are going into next year and they can spend more money towards filling those needs. If it's a starter, a catcher, and a second basemen, then they suddenly have $11.5 million more while they add a prospect in the second round to the minor leagues. If Rienzo, Paulino, Surkamp, Beck, or anybody else step up and become legitimately good #5 starters, then they have $11.5 million to spend on other aspects of the team.

 

The Sox have proven capable of developing starting pitching. Why would you spend anything extra on it at this point in the franchise's development?

[witesoxfan]

Who are the teams that overspend in the draft and international markets who have had success.

 

Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, should I keep going?

[Marty34]

Sure. Andre Rienzo is projected at 0.9 WAR in the Oliver projections, while Steamer has him projected at a 0.6 WAR over 115 innings. Felipe Paulino is projected at 0.5 WAR, but that's taking into account that it's only over 7 starts due to not pitching much the previous two seasons. Over 30 starts, that's roughly 2 WAR. His Oliver projections are a little less cheery at 0.3 WAR over 60 IP, but that's still 1 WAR over 180 innings for $1.5 mill, which would still be a bargain free agent. Steamer projects Surkamp for 1 IP, but Oliver has him at 1.9 WAR over 107 IP.

 

Steamer projects Ervin Santana at 2.7 WAR, Oliver projects him at 1.4 WAR, and the Fans project him at 2.1 WAR.

 

These obviously don't mean anything, but even if you look at the high end for Santana and the low end for the combination of those 3, you are talking about paying $11.5 million more for less than 2 WAR of value in 2014 while limiting the knowledge you have of the pitchers' performances and abilities at the major league level.

 

Rienzo is going to be in the pen. Paulino, Surkamp are not as good as Santana. We've already established a $48M contract for the Sox is not an issue.

[Marty34]

Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, should I keep going?

 

Tell me more about the Rays and their success in spending in the draft. It's a damn shame when the Sox can't afford to outspend the Rays . . . As far as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers go, pay no attention to the money they spend on payroll.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Marty34

[Dick Allen]

I'd rather see these guys get clobbered and/or hurt so that the organization knows what its needs are going into next year and they can spend more money towards filling those needs. If it's a starter, a catcher, and a second basemen, then they suddenly have $11.5 million more while they add a prospect in the second round to the minor leagues. If Rienzo, Paulino, Surkamp, Beck, or anybody else step up and become legitimately good #5 starters, then they have $11.5 million to spend on other aspects of the team.

 

The Sox have proven capable of developing starting pitching. Why would you spend anything extra on it at this point in the franchise's development?

I think the Sox have proven to be good at developing pitchers, but not necessarily starters. Sale is one, but he really wasn't developed in the White Sox organization. Quintana had most of his developmental time elsewhere. Johnson the jury is still out. Most other Sox effective starters, with the exception of Buehrle, were developed elsewhere.

 

The team is always going to need starting pitching. If you can get it at a good rate now, it could be a good time to jump. The prices aren't going down. What you could have for $40 million now might cost you a lot more than that next year, if you can even get it. I think that is the point Marty and TUC are trying to make. Bailey will be off the board. There is a good chance Lester will be off the board, Scherzer, if he is available isn't going to be in the Sox range, and going after a pitcher isn't like the Sox pursuit of Abreu when teams that normally spend ridiculous money, had no real 1b DH opening. Everyone always has a spot for a good pitcher, at least at the beginning of free agency, and the Sox may be good enough this season where the price to sign one isn't a second round pick, but a first rounder.

 

 

[shakes]

Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, should I keep going?

 

Don't forget Texas, Cincinnati, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, and on and on. You know almost all the contending teams.

[witesoxfan]

Rienzo is going to be in the pen. Paulino, Surkamp are not as good as Santana. We've already established a $48M contract for the Sox is not an issue.

 

So because something isn't a problem means you should want for it? EVERYBODY, I WANT HERPES. I'VE HEARD IT'S REALLY NOT A PROBLEM. PLEASE GIVE IT TO ME.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Tell me more about the Rays and their success in spending in the draft. It's a damn shame when the Sox can't afford to outspend the Rays . . . As far as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers go, pay no attention to the money they spend on payroll.

 

Also pay no attention to the trades they make or the fact that a lot of that international money IS part of the payroll.

 

I'm not understanding what argument you're trying to make here.

[Dick Allen]

Tell me more about the Rays and their success in spending in the draft. It's a damn shame when the Sox can't afford to outspend the Rays . . . As far as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers go, pay no attention to the money they spend on payroll.

Exactly. The only 2 budget teams were the Rays and Pirates. They had to be awful a long time to get the prospects they wound up with, and both teams have had huge misses at the top of the draft.