Asking Prices Beginning to Fall

[witesoxfan]

I think the Sox have proven to be good at developing pitchers, but not necessarily starters. Sale is one, but he really wasn't developed in the White Sox organization. Quintana had most of his developmental time elsewhere. Johnson the jury is still out. Most other Sox effective starters, with the exception of Buehrle, were developed elsewhere.

 

The team is always going to need starting pitching. If you can get it at a good rate now, it could be a good time to jump. The prices aren't going down. What you could have for $40 million now might cost you a lot more than that next year, if you can even get it. I think that is the point Marty and TUC are trying to make. Bailey will be off the board. There is a good chance Lester will be off the board, Scherzer, if he is available isn't going to be in the Sox range, and going after a pitcher isn't like the Sox pursuit of Abreu when teams that normally spend ridiculous money, had no real 1b DH opening. Everyone always has a spot for a good pitcher, at least at the beginning of free agency, and the Sox may be good enough this season where the price to sign one isn't a second round pick, but a first rounder.

 

So then they are good at identifying talent from outside the organization? Then my belief in Paulino is foundation for that and we should expect big things out of Surkamp too.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

Rienzo is going to be in the pen. Paulino, Surkamp are not as good as Santana. We've already established a $48M contract for the Sox is not an issue.

 

But what you HAVEN'T established is why the best use of the $48m (plus an extremely early 2nd round pick) is an aging, inconsistent pitcher on a 99 loss team.

[2nd_city_saint787]

This. Keep your draft pick, overspend on the draft/international markets, and put the $35m+ toward a better player when you're closer to contending

 

 

This.

 

Sox probably aren't going to compete this year with or without Ervin Santana, and they've shown the ability to develop pitching. So next year, assuming Paulino doesn't succeed(which I think he can), there's a good chance a guy like Beck or Bassit comes along and is the next EJ. So then ya got Sale-Q-EJ-Danks-Beck/Bassit/Paulino, and you also have boatloads of money to fill whatever offensive holes they may have.

[Quin]

I'd rather have the ability to draft Jakson Reetz than get Ervin Santana.

[Dick Allen]

So then they are good at identifying talent from outside the organization? Then my belief in Paulino is foundation for that and we should expect big things out of Surkamp too.

Not many bargain basement starters with the exception of Loaisa have worked out well with the Sox. KW spent big money on the rotation during his time.

[witesoxfan]

Not many bargain basement starters with the exception of Loaisa have worked out well with the Sox. KW spent big money on the rotation during his time.

 

Loaiza got the Sox Contreras, El Duque was pretty cheap, and Freddy Garcia the second time around was effective too. They've had plenty of luck.

[Marty34]

Exactly. The only 2 budget teams were the Rays and Pirates. They had to be awful a long time to get the prospects they wound up with, and both teams have had huge misses at the top of the draft.

 

As you made the terrific argument for in the other thread DA, (or was it his one?) it has little to do with spending and more to do with how good the scouting is.

[witesoxfan]

As you made the terrific argument for in the other thread DA, (or was it his one?) it has little to do with spending and more to do with how good the scouting is.

 

So then if the Sox signed Santana, we'd be f***ed because that would mean the Sox scouting likes him and the Sox scouts don't like anybody good.

[Dick Allen]

Loaiza got the Sox Contreras, El Duque was pretty cheap, and Freddy Garcia the second time around was effective too. They've had plenty of luck.

Don't use El Duque. He was pretty awful as a White Sox. He did have one incredible inning. And Freddy when he came back was mediocre at best. If Santana put up the numbers these guys did, if the Sox signed him, you would point out how awful he was.

 

I like Jimenez better than Santana, but Santana eats innings. One thing your saber cohort ripped me for was valuing IP, but a guy that gives you 200 IP near the bottom of your rotation does wonders for your bullpen.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

But what you HAVEN'T established is why the best use of the $48m (plus an extremely early 2nd round pick) is an aging, inconsistent pitcher on a 99 loss team.

 

I've said it countless times because the prices are likely to go up. Be proactive and in the process save money.

 

If Abreau had signed a 6y/$68M deal somewhere else, I'm convinced people would have been happy about it. Some of the same people who think it was a great signing by the Sox.

[Eminor3rd]

I've said it countless times because the prices are likely to go up. Be proactive and in the process save money.

 

If Abreau had signed a 6y/$68M deal somewhere else, I'm convinced people would have been happy about it. Some of the same people who think it was a great signing by the Sox.

 

It's not the idea of signing a guy now because he won't be available later that is giving us problems, it's the guys that are available. Abreu is 26 and fills a huge organizational hole at 1B. Santana is 30 and represents a slight short-term upgrade and a very likely long-term problem. I think for the right guy, we wouldn't have issue at $48m + draft pick for a pitcher, but the guys on the market are just not the right guys. If they're the best available over the next few years, then we need a different strategy. If you needed a bullet proof vest but there was no kevlar around, you wouldn't use toilet paper just because it was the best option available for a vest -- you'd try to find a different way to avoid getting shot.

[witesoxfan]

Don't use El Duque. He was pretty awful as a White Sox. He did have one incredible inning. And Freddy when he came back was mediocre at best. If Santana put up the numbers these guys did, if the Sox signed him, you would point out how awful he was.

 

I like Jimenez better than Santana, but Santana eats innings. One thing your saber cohort ripped me for was valuing IP, but a guy that gives you 200 IP near the bottom of your rotation does wonders for your bullpen.

 

Of course I would. Contreras was actually pretty terrible after his stretch of about 30 games, so naturally I was unhappy with that, but he was bargain shopping and he was the #1 starter during their World Series run, so I'm letting bygones be bygones there. Freddy Garcia put up an ERA in the mid 4's over 200+ innings between two seasons at an average of $1.25 mill. That's 10x the amount that Santana will probably get on the open market. If Santana were to do that, you're damn right I'd be upset.

 

IP are valuable, but the Sox have inning eaters with the like Danks and Quintana. Frankly, for the upcoming season, you don't ALWAYS want to save the bullpen because you want to see what a lot of these guys can offer to help them build value and/or confidence. It's nice to do to keep guys healthy, and I hope Ventura manages the pen better, but if Rienzo starts and bombs, then let's see what Webb can do over a couple innings. Let's see if Boggs can figure out how to pitch again.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't use El Duque. He was pretty awful as a White Sox. He did have one incredible inning. And Freddy when he came back was mediocre at best. If Santana put up the numbers these guys did, if the Sox signed him, you would point out how awful he was.

 

I like Jimenez better than Santana, but Santana eats innings. One thing your saber cohort ripped me for was valuing IP, but a guy that gives you 200 IP near the bottom of your rotation does wonders for your bullpen.

 

IP is a critical input for fWAR. I don't think any SABR-apologists would rip you for valuing it.

[witesoxfan]

It's not the idea of signing a guy now because he won't be available later that is giving us problems, it's the guys that are available. Abreu is 26 and fills a huge organizational hole at 1B. Santana is 30 and represents a slight short-term upgrade and a very likely long-term problem. I think for the right guy, we wouldn't have issue at $48m + draft pick for a pitcher, but the guys on the market are just not the right guys. If they're the best available over the next few years, then we need a different strategy. If you needed a bullet proof vest but there was no kevlar around, you wouldn't use toilet paper just because it was the best option available for a vest -- you'd try to find a different way to avoid getting shot.

 

That is an awesome analogy.

 

Also, I mentioned several times after Tanaka signed, I would have had no problem with the Sox giving up a draft pick if it was absolutely required. The draft pick just adds incentive to NOT sign these guys.

[hogan873]

I've said it countless times because the prices are likely to go up. Be proactive and in the process save money.

 

If Abreau had signed a 6y/$68M deal somewhere else, I'm convinced people would have been happy about it. Some of the same people who think it was a great signing by the Sox.

I have to 100% disagree with this. I think the overall consensus was that the Abreu signing was very good. Had he signed somewhere else for the same contract, there would have been much frustration that the Sox couldn't make that same deal.

[Marty34]

It's not the idea of signing a guy now because he won't be available later that is giving us problems, it's the guys that are available. Abreu is 26 and fills a huge organizational hole at 1B. Santana is 30 and represents a slight short-term upgrade and a very likely long-term problem. I think for the right guy, we wouldn't have issue at $48m + draft pick for a pitcher, but the guys on the market are just not the right guys. If they're the best available over the next few years, then we need a different strategy. If you needed a bullet proof vest but there was no kevlar around, you wouldn't use toilet paper just because it was the best option available for a vest -- you'd try to find a different way to avoid getting shot.

 

What pitcher do you think is worth $48M over the next 4 years to the Sox?

[Eminor3rd]

What pitcher do you think is worth $48M over the next 4 years to the Sox?

 

None that are available. Theoretically, younger guys with a balance of some established track record and enough upside to mitigate risk.

[Marty34]

None that are available. Theoretically, younger guys with a balance of some established track record and enough upside to mitigate risk.

 

Now younger pitchers on the market are going to cost a lot more than that. It's doubtful that the Sox can outbid the big spenders for that type of pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

I have to 100% disagree with this. I think the overall consensus was that the Abreu signing was very good. Had he signed somewhere else for the same contract, there would have been much frustration that the Sox couldn't make that same deal.

But it is a 99 loss team. Viciedo or Black or countless others could easily be the 1B equivalent of guys like Paulino and Surkamp. And Abreu has zero MLB experience. If he doesn't work out, if the $48 million is a huge problem for the White Sox future moving forward, a $68 million flop is catastrophic.

 

To me if the Sox make a move that upgrades their roster, it makes me happy.

 

I am really concerned about the international signing period. The Yankees are supposed to break the bank this summer, go way over their limit and take the penalties that go with it. I read where they basically have already agreed to contracts with 4 or 5 of the top guys. Hopefully that is just rumor, but if true, that is punch to the gut of the White Sox.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Now younger pitchers on the market are going to cost a lot more than that. It's doubtful that the Sox can outbid the big spenders for that type of pitcher.

 

Made much MORE doubtful if the Sox spend the money they do have on mediocre guys just for the sake of spending it. That's what I mean when I say that $48m alone won't sink us, but we'll sure wish that $48m was available when we want to get a guy that will really move the needle.

[southsider2k5]

Who are the teams that overspend in the draft and international markets who have had success.

 

How about the 2013 World Series Champs?

[Eminor3rd]

I am really concerned about the international signing period. The Yankees are supposed to break the bank this summer, go way over their limit and take the penalties that go with it. I read where they basically have already agreed to contracts with 4 or 5 of the top guys. Hopefully that is just rumor, but if true, that is punch to the gut of the White Sox.

 

This concerns me too. Hopefully the Sox will at least be able to focus on one or two guys and leverage their relationships.

[Marty34]

Made much MORE doubtful if the Sox spend the money they do have on mediocre guys just for the sake of spending it. That's what I mean when I say that $48m alone won't sink us, but we'll sure wish that $48m was available when we want to get a guy that will really move the needle.

 

Really think that $48M is going to make a difference between outspending the top tier or not? I don't, but if it did that is the definition of albatross contract.

[Dick Allen]

How about the 2013 World Series Champs?

Ellsbury and Pedroia were both available to the White Sox during the draft. The Sox selected Lance Broadway instead of Ellsbury and paid more money to Broadway than Boston paid Ellsbury.

 

The Sox also selected guys like Wes Whisler and Donny Lucy and paid them bigger bonuses than Boston paid Pedroia.

 

It wasn't overspending. It was better scouting and development.

[Marty34]

How about the 2013 World Series Champs?

 

Tell me more? I know the Sox took Brian Anderson a few picks before Pedroia, but other than that I'm not familiar with the way they built their team.