Asking Prices Beginning to Fall

[Eminor3rd]

Really think that $48M is going to make a difference between outspending the top tier or not? I don't, but if it did that is the definition of albatross contract.

 

Maybe or maybe not alone. But combined with a couple similar deals, and yes. And the problem with building through free agency is that you have to keep paying those prices. So if Santana adds 2 wins for us in 2015 at that price, where are you going to get the rest? You can only pay market rate for talent so many times before you're bogged down. 31 year-old 3 starters just aren't it for us right now. Maybe they will be in a year or two. But even if we bought now to prepare for a year or two, we're then buying the decline years at the price of the prime years.

[southsider2k5]

Tell me more? I know the Sox took Brian Anderson a few picks before Pedroia, but other than that I'm not familiar with the way they built their team.

 

And any claims of not trolling are now 100% dead.

 

RIP Marty34

[harfman77]

I think there is just a big disconnect between fans like Marty who want to spend money on any free agent they feel can help now, much in the way the organization did under KW and the direction the franchise is headed.

 

We have seen teams like the Jays try to spend themselves into contention only to see it backfire, the Yankees have depleted their minor league system by signing other teams comp players and have little to no help on the way to help their overpriced aging roster. The old ways are dying and its time to embrace the change.

 

Santana isn't worth the talent you would have to give up for him, let alone the >$12M contract it will take to sign him. Looking at the last four Sox second round picks - Tyler Danish, Chris Beck, Erik Johnson, and Jake Petrika, I wouldn't trade any of them for Ervin Santana and 4/$52M deal.

 

This roster can be at least semi-competitive now, I think they are headed for a winning record, and they could possibly be a team that could make a run if everything clicks. But also Hahn is building this system so that when people hit free agency, we have internal options to replace them, have the chips to go out and fill gaps when the team needs and extra push to reach the playoffs. The new approach allows the team to remain consistently competitive instead of going all in every few years to make a push. The Cardinals are never all in, because they are in every year. They are able to move their players that are getting expensive or let them walk because they can back fill with internal options. They also have the payroll flexibility to go get a guy when it makes a lot of sense for them.

 

Someone like Santana is not a difference maker, he is a mid-rotation guy, the kind of guy you can sign any season in FA, no reason for him to block someone like Paulino (who very well could be better) or Johnson (ditto) from getting innings.

[Chicago White Sox]

The problem with Marty's idea is we simply don't need another mid-rotation starter. If you're putting together a championship caliber rotation, Sale as a #1, Quintana as a #3, & Johnson as a #4 works IMO. All three are young, cheap, & cost-controlled for the foreseeable future. That right there is your core. On top of that, we have an expensive Danks who has a reasonable chance of rebounding this year and becoming a strong #3 starter again. Throw Chris Beck into the mix, who should be ready by opening day 2015 IMO, and we should have 4 legitimate starters to cover the back-end of the rotation (and this assumes that Rienzo, Surkamp, & Paulino aren't factors).

 

What we really need is another top-of-the-rotation starter, not at Sale's level, but one that can solidfy that #2 spot, especially come playoff time. Tanaka made a ton of sense for us because he could fill that void and do so long-term. Wasting money on Jimenez or Santana doesn't help us achieve that goal, and quite frankly, signing one of them to hopefully spin Quintana down the road seems counter-productive and incredibly risky. I get the logic in doing so, but those simply aren't the right guys to gamble on.

[Balta1701]

The problem with Marty's idea is we simply don't need another mid-rotation starter. If you're putting together a championship caliber rotation, Sale as a #1, Quintana as a #3, & Johnson as a #4 works IMO. All three are young, cheap, & cost-controlled for the foreseeable future. That right there is your core. On top of that, we have an expensive Danks who has a reasonable chance of rebounding this year and becoming a strong #3 starter again. Throw Chris Beck into the mix, who should be ready by opening day 2015 IMO, and we should have 4 legitimate starters to cover the back-end of the rotation (and this assumes that Rienzo, Surkamp, & Paulino aren't factors).

 

What we really need is another top-of-the-rotation starter, not at Sale's level, but one that can solidfy that #2 spot, especially come playoff time. Tanaka made a ton of sense for us because he could fill that void and do so long-term. Wasting money on Jimenez or Santana doesn't help us achieve that goal, and quite frankly, signing one of them to hopefully spin Quintana down the road seems counter-productive and incredibly risky. I get the logic in doing so, but those simply aren't the right guys to gamble on.

Just to note, Chris Sale + Jose Quintana last year was one of the better 1-2 starting pitching combinations in baseball.

[Marty34]

Maybe or maybe not alone. But combined with a couple similar deals, and yes. And the problem with building through free agency is that you have to keep paying those prices. So if Santana adds 2 wins for us in 2015 at that price, where are you going to get the rest? You can only pay market rate for talent so many times before you're bogged down. 31 year-old 3 starters just aren't it for us right now. Maybe they will be in a year or two. But even if we bought now to prepare for a year or two, we're then buying the decline years at the price of the prime years.

 

I think one of the things to factor into this rebuild is that the White Sox will not buy top talent on the free agent market. They just aren't going to win a bidding war with the big boys. Draft, trade, and mid-tier free agency is the way they have to go. To mitigate the many risks that go along with mid-tier free agents I think it's best to buy early as the price will continue to rise.

[Marty34]

The problem with Marty's idea is we simply don't need another mid-rotation starter. If you're putting together a championship caliber rotation, Sale as a #1, Quintana as a #3, & Johnson as a #4 works IMO. All three are young, cheap, & cost-controlled for the foreseeable future. That right there is your core. On top of that, we have an expensive Danks who has a reasonable chance of rebounding this year and becoming a strong #3 starter again. Throw Chris Beck into the mix, who should be ready by opening day 2015 IMO, and we should have 4 legitimate starters to cover the back-end of the rotation (and this assumes that Rienzo, Surkamp, & Paulino aren't factors).

 

What we really need is another top-of-the-rotation starter, not at Sale's level, but one that can solidfy that #2 spot, especially come playoff time. Tanaka made a ton of sense for us because he could fill that void and do so long-term. Wasting money on Jimenez or Santana doesn't help us achieve that goal, and quite frankly, signing one of them to hopefully spin Quintana down the road seems counter-productive and incredibly risky. I get the logic in doing so, but those simply aren't the right guys to gamble on.

 

A problem is they are going to have to trade a core piece in an attempt to get better. Santana replaces Quintana in that instance.

[Balta1701]

I think one of the things to factor into this rebuild is that the White Sox will not buy top talent on the free agent market. They just aren't going to win a bidding war with the big boys. Draft, trade, and mid-tier free agency is the way they have to go. To mitigate the many risks that go along with mid-tier free agents I think it's best to buy early as the price will continue to rise.

Here's yet another counterpoint. I see very little evidence to actually support your claim of constantly rising prices for mid-tier free agent starting pitching. For example, the starting pitchers signing in 2008 other than CC: AJ Burnett 5/$82, Derek Lowe 4/$60, Dempster 4/$52.

 

In 2009, a guy like Randy Wolf got 3/$30 and I think he's at a lower level than the guys this year.

 

2011, Mark Buehrle, 4/$58.

 

2012, Edwin Jackson, 4/$52.

 

2007, Carl Pavano, 4/$58.

 

2006, Gil Meche 5/$55, Jason Schmidt 3/$47, Jeff Suppan 4/$42, Ted Lilly 4/$40.

 

I have to go back to 2006 to really feel like I see a moderate price increase on a middle of the rotation starter (Lilly), and every one of those years there were also guys signed for 2/$20 million-ish who could fill roles shorter term. 5 years ago, Ryan Dempster got a contract as a free agent earning more than Ubaldo Jiminez at a more advanced age. There are mid-tier starters available every year for ~$10-$12 mil a season and there's little evidence of a significant price bump.

[southsider2k5]

I think one of the things to factor into this rebuild is that the White Sox will not buy top talent on the free agent market. They just aren't going to win a bidding war with the big boys. Draft, trade, and mid-tier free agency is the way they have to go. To mitigate the many risks that go along with mid-tier free agents I think it's best to buy early as the price will continue to rise.

 

This line of thinking is akin to buying a used car at age 14, because they will be more expensive when you are 16.

[witesoxfan]

Now younger pitchers on the market are going to cost a lot more than that. It's doubtful that the Sox can outbid the big spenders for that type of pitcher.

 

The Sox were rumored to be willing to spend $120 million on Tanaka. Say they're willing to spend that on other free agents too of a similar ilk. If you give out the $48 million, that pool of money has now decreased to $72 million, and over the 6 year deal, you can now only commit $12 mill per year rather than $20 mill. That is a huge, huge difference. Players like Price, Latos, Iwakuma, and even Fister become virtually impossible to sign 2 years from now, and we don't know what's going to come over from Cuba, Japan, and even Korea. If the Sox trade for someone, they may not be able to extend them. They may not be able to re-sign all the guys they'd like to on the current roster to extensions, thinking specifically of Quintana and Jones right now.

 

It's like when you get a big check and someone says "don't spend it all in one place." This is like that, except that the Sox already had that money.

[Marty34]

This line of thinking is akin to buying a used car at age 14, because they will be more expensive when you are 16.

 

The light has finally switched on SS2K5.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Just to note, Chris Sale + Jose Quintana last year was one of the better 1-2 starting pitching combinations in baseball.

 

Ya, Q was really good. Among qualified SPs he had the 17th lowest ERA, his WAR was 6th among SPs. He's a #2 starter.

 

Furthermore I believe both Danks and EJ can put up #3 type numbers.

 

Then there's Paulino, who over his last 150 innings as a SP has an ERA in the 3s.

 

Beck and/or Bassit have what it takes to make the rotation as early as mid season this year.

 

Pitching is not the problem, it's the positional players.

[southsider2k5]

The light has finally switched on SS2K5.

 

Sure, you want a car rotting in your driveway for two years, and probably not running once you actually need it.

[bigruss]

Sure, you want a car rotting in your driveway for two years, and probably not running once you actually need it.

And depreciating, since it's now 2 years older.

[GGajewski18]

The Sox were rumored to be willing to spend $120 million on Tanaka. Say they're willing to spend that on other free agents too of a similar ilk. If you give out the $48 million, that pool of money has now decreased to $72 million, and over the 6 year deal, you can now only commit $12 mill per year rather than $20 mill. That is a huge, huge difference. Players like Price, Latos, Iwakuma, and even Fister become virtually impossible to sign 2 years from now, and we don't know what's going to come over from Cuba, Japan, and even Korea. If the Sox trade for someone, they may not be able to extend them. They may not be able to re-sign all the guys they'd like to on the current roster to extensions, thinking specifically of Quintana and Jones right now.

 

It's like when you get a big check and someone says "don't spend it all in one place." This is like that, except that the Sox already had that money.

 

If Scherzer becomes available in two years, I think Hahn would definitely take a run at him. He would get more than Tanaka but by then, Hahn will have Dunn, Keppinger, and Beckham off the books. Use that money on Scherzer and your rotation is set for the next 5 years.

 

Sale

Scherzer

Quintana (extension)

Danks (will become FA after that year)

Beck/Bassitt

 

[Marty34]

Sure, you want a car rotting in your driveway for two years, and probably not running once you actually need it.

 

On the flipside, a friend of mine bought his son a used car 20 months before his 16th birthday and it's running 6 years later.

[harfman77]

Ellsbury and Pedroia were both available to the White Sox during the draft. The Sox selected Lance Broadway instead of Ellsbury and paid more money to Broadway than Boston paid Ellsbury.

 

The Sox also selected guys like Wes Whisler and Donny Lucy and paid them bigger bonuses than Boston paid Pedroia.

 

It wasn't overspending. It was better scouting and development.

 

Yes, this was pre-slot when players would adjust their signing price based on the team they were negotiating with and thus were able to select the team that picked them instead of vice versa. There still is some of that today, but the slotting system helps to get rid of most of those situations.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Loaiza got the Sox Contreras, El Duque was pretty cheap, and Freddy Garcia the second time around was effective too. They've had plenty of luck.

 

 

Humber for one year.

 

Bringing back Colon, the instincts were there, and they've been proven right in more recent years.

 

Quintana cost nothing.

 

Gavin Floyd cost nothing in the sense that Garcia was already on a downward slope and we saved a lot of money as well.

 

Santos and Jenks in the pen.

[harfman77]

A problem is they are going to have to trade a core piece in an attempt to get better. Santana replaces Quintana in that instance.

 

Why does Santana replace him? Why not Beck, Surkamp, Rienzo or Danish when they are each are capable of putting up just as good of numbers that Santana would for $50M less? What position do they need to trade for to improve? We have a surplus in the IF and 2/3 OF positions occupied. Are you moving Q to get a C? Use the money that you would spend on Santana and plug holes with that money don't trade a cheap good player and replace him with an expensive bad player to try to make the team better.

[harfman77]

On the flipside, a friend of mine bought his son a used car 20 months before his 16th birthday and it's running 6 years later.

 

The problem with that analogy is that he would have had his lease expire when he turned 17.

[cabiness42]

Just wondering, is there an expiration date on the compensatory pick for Santana? If he doesn't have a team by opening day, does the compensation go away?

[caulfield12]

The light has finally switched on SS2K5.

 

Forgetting the 25% decrease in value in year 1 and 10% each following year.

[caulfield12]

If Scherzer becomes available in two years, I think Hahn would definitely take a run at him. He would get more than Tanaka but by then, Hahn will have Dunn, Keppinger, and Beckham off the books. Use that money on Scherzer and your rotation is set for the next 5 years.

 

Sale

Scherzer

Quintana (extension)

Danks (will become FA after that year)

Beck/Bassitt

 

 

I would be very wary of Scherzer. Leyland has pitched him and Verlander into the ground.

 

Look at both of those guys in terms of IP and pitch counts over the last 2-3 seasons.

 

Scherzer is not a guy (when/if he becomes available) that I would be willing to pay $20-25 per season simply because the risk is too high and the number of years on that contract will be at least 5 (if not 6-8). Of course, a lot of the same arguments can be applied to Tanaka, although I'd rather take the 25-27 year old pitcher any day over one in his late 20's/early 30's any day of the week.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

On the flipside, a friend of mine bought his son a used car 20 months before his 16th birthday and it's running 6 years later.

 

Low mileage then. Sounds like Abreu, not Santana. Also, Santana will be collecting more miles while you wait for your driver's license.

[Marty34]

Low mileage then. Sounds like Abreu, not Santana. Also, Santana will be collecting more miles while you wait for your driver's license.

 

Dad's a top shelf mechanic truth be told. A cooper comparison perhaps.