2003 off season preview

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There are general managers who predict that even with Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield and Miguel Tejada on the market that no player will approach a Jim Thome deal, in terms of average annual salary ($15 million) or length. One major agent doesn't buy that, but he does say no one will approach the last $17 million player, Jason Giambi. "What you will see," said one AL GM, "is that the era of the pitchers getting more than three years is over. Pat Gillick called that many, many years ago, and some teams fell in to the trap."

 

 

This is the way one club figures it: If one assumes that because of flat growth in the industry in 2003, that the Opening Day payroll dollars will be approximately the same in 2004 as they were in 2003 ($2,020,938,999). That means with $1,550,426,598 already allocated to players in 2004, less than $500,000,000 will be left for the remaining players

 

Understand, that includes:

 

 

Nearly 450 players yet to be signed currently on 25-man rosters;

 

 

275 pre-arbitration players;

 

 

40-man roster players who will be on option assignments.

 

The total for non-arbitration and option assignment players is estimated at more than $120,000,000.

 

That would leave approximately $350,000,000 for free agents. There are going to be more than 200 free agents. There will almost certainly be another 100 or more non-tenders.

 

If one assumes that arbitration-eligible stars like Carlos Beltran and Javier Vazquez will get $10 million-$12 million and that the cream of the free-agent crop -- Kevin Millwood, Bartolo Colon, Kaz Matsui, Ivan Rodriguez, Tejada, Guerrero, Sheffield -- will average somewhere around $9 million. That's 25 percent of the pie for more than 300 players.

 

The club then assumes that the next level of free agents -- Keith Foulke, Carl Everett, Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Ugueth Urbina, Tim Worrell, Javy Lopez, Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, Luis Castillo, Rich Aurilia, Shannon Stewart, Kelvim Escobar, Sidney Ponson and perhaps a significant non-tender candidate (Derrek Lee, Carlos Lee, Freddy Garcia, J.D. Drew, Doug Mientkiewicz) -- will average $4.5 million-$5 million. That could be close to another 25 percent of the cash.

 

Assuming there are 175 free-agent roster spots available to the 300-plus free agents and non-tenders, the math tells you there isn't going to be a whole lot left over for the mad dash for roster spots come January.

 

 

"Look at how successful Boston was in getting David Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller and guys like that in January," said one general manager. "That's going to be the route most teams will take. Baltimore, San Diego, Los Angeles, the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox (for pitching, pitching and more pitching) will all have money to spend, but it's going to be a buyer's market."

 

It will still be a market in which starting pitchers will not starve. With Roger Clemens retiring, Pettitte a free agent and warhorse David Wells heading to 41, the Yanks will likely have to bring back Pettitte to go with Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, Jose Contreras and Weaver (?), and hit the market. Boston figures to spend most of its money on pitching. Having completely revamped the Rangers into a young, hungry team and restocked the farm system, John Hart has to get pitching. The Mets want another starter, and so do the Cardinals and, if Maddux leaves, the Braves, as well as the Padres, Blue Jays and Orioles.

 

For example, some major players whose options likely won't be exercised: RHP Felix Rodriguez, LHP Gabe White, RHP Scott Sullivan, RHP Jose Mesa, RHP Andy Ashby, RHP Matt Mantei, RHP Rick Reed, 2B Fernando Vina, SS Jose Valentin, 1B J.T. Snow and OF Brian Jordan.

 

Then come the major potential non-tenders: OF Drew, RHP Freddy Garcia, LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Tomo Ohka, C Michael Barrett, RHP Tony Armas, 1B Mientkiewicz, 2B Luis Rivas, 3B Adrian Beltre, RHP Jose Jimenez, OF Jay Payton, 1B Derrek Lee, OF Carlos Lee, RHP A.J. Burnett, 1B Brad Fullmer, 2B Adam Kennedy, 1B Robert Fick, RHP Jason Johnson, LHP Damian Moss, 2B Todd Walker, RHP Ryan Dempster.